The impact on European seaports Buck Consultants International ESPO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
the impact on european seaports
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

The impact on European seaports Buck Consultants International ESPO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 20, 2024 294 likes •479 views

Trade Globalisation or Investment Regionalisation? The impact on European seaports Buck Consultants International ESPO Conference P.O. Box 1456 Rotterdam, May 2018 6501 BL Nijmegen The Netherlands P: +31 24 379 0222 Ren Buck M: +31 65

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Trade Globalisation or Investment Regionalisation? The impact on European seaports

Buck Consultants International P.O. Box 1456 6501 BL Nijmegen The Netherlands P: +31 24 379 0222 M: +31 65 337 2612 F: +31 24 379 0120 E: rene.buck@bciglobal.com ESPO Conference Rotterdam, May 2018 René Buck CEO Buck Consultants International

slide-2
SLIDE 2

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

1

Challenges for Companies

Companies have to address internal and external challenges

Internal challenges External challenges

  • Growth of business
  • Search for talent
  • Continuous innovation / R&D
  • New production technologies
  • New organizational thinking
  • Bottom Line
  • New competitors/ technologies/

business models

  • Market shifts
  • Geopolitical developments
  • Shifts in risks
  • Shifts in attractiveness of labor

pools

  • Regulatory challenges
slide-3
SLIDE 3

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

2

5 5 7 11 13 14 14 20 24 26 42 44 50

Inflation Volatile commodity prices Volatile exhange rates Increased economic volatility Rising interest rates Asset bubbles Social unrest Exit of 1 or more countries from the eurozone Slowdown in China's economic activity Slowdown in global trade Changes in trade policy Transitions of political leadership Geopolitical instability

% of respondents, n = 1,742

Potential risks to global economic growth over next 12 months

Source: McKinsey, 2017

Geopolitical developments have impact

slide-4
SLIDE 4

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

3

What long-term trends could affect your business the most?

13 15 17 19 19 25 30 33 62

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Income inequality and shifting labor-market dynamics Developments in energy and resource management New sources of emerging-markets growth Increasing consumer-to-business interactivity Changing pace of globalization and world trade Shifting boundaries between industry sectors Technological and geopolitical risks New economic, social and/or regulatory policies Cumulative effects of technological innovation

% of respondents Long-term trends with biggest potential effect

  • n companies’ business over next 10 years

Respondents in developed economies, n=906

Source: McKinsey, 2017

slide-5
SLIDE 5

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

4

Different views on free trade

National Economism / Mercantilism

Objective is to obtain a ‘favourable’ balance of trade, by which the value of one country’s exports exceeds the value of a country’s imports ⚫ tariffs ⚫ quotas ⚫ non-tariff barriers

Multilateral Trade Liberalization

Objective is to obtain an effective balance of trade, by which inhabitants and companies benefit from open markets and tariff-free trading

⚫ efficiency based pricing ⚫ develop potential of countries lagging behind ⚫ eliminated or reduced tariffs, quotas and other trade restrictions

slide-6
SLIDE 6

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

5

Free Trade versus Limited Free Trade

1993 2001 2013 2018 2023

Free Trade Limited Free Trade/ National Economism

slide-7
SLIDE 7

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

6

Trade Interventions per year (anti-dumping, import tariffs, etc.)

50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Harmful Liberalising

Source: Global Trade Alert, 2018

slide-8
SLIDE 8

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

7

Trade Conflicts

USA Mexico China Japan Europe UK Brexit TTIP N A F T A Import Duties TPP

slide-9
SLIDE 9

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

8

Trade surplus between regions/countries In Billion USD, Goods only

Sources: Asean.org, Eurostat, World Trade organization, USTR.gov, (2016-2017)

+346 +153 +46 +78 +43 +176

slide-10
SLIDE 10

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

9

Long term economic trends Policy shifts

  • Asia’s cost advantages will

shrink

  • New production technologies
  • Multipolar growth
  • Reshoring of production
  • Less public support for globalisation
  • Growing protectionism
  • Trade restrictions on the rise
  • New transport modes (Silk Routes)

Less interregional trade? Less interregional trade? Risk that ports will loose business

Chances on a future in which growth of seaports will be limited are on the rise

slide-11
SLIDE 11

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

10

Responses of companies on challenges: Manufacturing Footprint Scenarios

⚫ Scenarios based on various perspectives like

  • Product group allocation
  • Geography
  • Production technology

⚫ Examples of Scenarios

  • Status Quo (benchmark)
  • Global Hubs
  • Regional Optimization
  • Global Product Optimization

⚫ Assessments based on

  • Cost
  • Customer
  • Conditions
slide-12
SLIDE 12

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

11

Supply Chain Design Scenarios

Type

  • perations

Function & Target group The actual decision what is the ‘best’ supply chain configuration largely depends on two factors:

⚫ Product e.g. value density $/m3, volume, production location, perishability of goods ⚫ Market e.g. service requirements of clients, location of customer bases,

  • rder pattern, demand volumes

Type of building Location

slide-13
SLIDE 13

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

12

Dominant distribution models per industry

Source: BCI team analysis

Dominant distribution structures EDC structure RDC structure NDC structure Drop ship

  • Consumer Electronics

50% 30% X dock – 20% for high value goods (phones, laptops)

  • Fashion & Lifestyle

80% 20%

  • FMCG

35% 65%

  • Food & Beverage

20% 80%

  • High Tech

50% 30% X dock – 20% for high value goods

  • Machinery & Equipment

20% 80%

  • Medical Tech

90% 10%

  • Pharma

60% 40%

  • Automotive

40% nearby supplier park DC 60% JIT and sequencing (close to OEM/tier 1)

  • Spare parts

75% 25%

slide-14
SLIDE 14

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

13

Strategy Shift: from transshipment centers to (production) centers of value add

Conclusions

Risks ⚫ more regional focused plants ⚫ less growth of trade ⚫ risks of increasing trade frictions is a threat to the global economy Impact

  • n

ports ⚫ Ports have to face the risk of loosing to a growing extent their 'license to operate' ⚫ Ports have to rethink their position in value chains

slide-15
SLIDE 15

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

14

For what kind of production/logistics activities are ports logical locations in the future?

Ports

Geographical reasons

  • Companies with one pan-European

production plant (center of gravity)

  • Companies who have substantial exports

to non-European markets

Logistics reasons

  • Companies who want to be located

near large multimodal nodes because these nodes meet their logistic requirements

Place/space reasons

  • Production and logistics companies who

need safe and remote industrial sites due to their dangerous products/production processes

  • Production plants that need large industrial

estates for their manufacturing activities

Energy reasons

  • Production plants that need a lot of

energy, as ports are concentrations

  • f (renewable) energy
  • Companies who benefit from large

waste flows

slide-16
SLIDE 16

 Buck Consultants International, 2018

15

Recommendations

⚫ Develop diverging scenario’s ⚫ Compile a robust strategy based on

  • which supply chains match your port best
  • which assets & what ecosystem do you have to offer

− geography/location − logistics − place/space − energy ⚫ Develop and implement your port specific roadmap