The Impact of the Pandemic on State and Provincial Budgets Thursday, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

the impact of the pandemic on state and provincial budgets
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The Impact of the Pandemic on State and Provincial Budgets Thursday, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Impact of the Pandemic on State and Provincial Budgets Thursday, July 9, 2020 | 10:00 11:00 a.m. CDT MODERATOR Senator Carolyn McGinn| Kansas | Chair, Senate Ways & Means Committee PRESENTERS Ms. Shelby Kerns | Executive Director |


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SLIDE 1

The Impact of the Pandemic on State and Provincial Budgets

Thursday, July 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 a.m. CDT

MODERATOR Senator Carolyn McGinn| Kansas | Chair, Senate Ways & Means Committee PRESENTERS

  • Ms. Shelby Kerns | Executive Director | National Association of State Budget Officers
  • Mr. David West | Chief Economist and Deputy Officer | Financial Accountability Office of Ontario
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SLIDE 2

THE C E COUN UNCIL O L OF STAT ATE GOVERNME NMENT NTS MIDWE DWESTERN LEGISLA LATIVE E CO CONFERENC NCE

  • The Council of State Governments
  • Only national organization that works with all

three branches of state government

  • CSG Midwest and the Midwestern Legislative

Conference

  • Serves legislators in 11 Midwestern states and

4 Canadian provinces

  • Conducts policy research and publishes a

monthly newsletter

  • Provides educational and networking
  • pportunities through in-person and virtual

events

  • Offers annual leadership training for new

legislators

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SLIDE 3

LOOK OOKING B BEYON OND THE P E PANDEM EMIC WEB EBINAR S R SERI RIES BACKGROU OUND ND & & TOPI PICS CS

Six live, web-based teleconferences that explore new institutional, organizational and policy challenges that state and provincial lawmakers are dealing with as a result of the pandemic

  • 1. Elections
  • 2. Remote Legislative Sessions
  • 3. Legislative Oversight
  • 4. Fiscal Impact of the Pandemic
  • 5. Emergency Preparedness
  • 6. Reopening the Economy

In addition to the live webinars, each session will be recorded and made available on the CSG Midwest website.

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SLIDE 4

TH THE I IMPACT OF F THE P E PANDEM EMIC ON STATE A AND D PROVIN INCIA IAL BUDGE GETS MODERATOR OR

  • Sen. Carolyn McGinn

Kansas Chair, Senate Ways & Means Committee 2nd Vice Chair, Midwestern Legislative Conference

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SLIDE 5

LOOK OOKING B BEYON OND THE P E PANDEM EMIC WEB EBINAR S R SERI RIES TH THE I IMPACT OF F THE P E PANDEM EMIC ON STATE A AND D PROVIN INCIA IAL BUDGE GETS

Today’s webinar will include:

  • A look at how Midwestern state budgets

and fiscal conditions have been, and will be, affected by the COVID-19 pandemic

  • A look at how Canadian provincial

budgets and fiscal conditions have been, and will be, affected by the COVID-19 pandemic

  • A brief discussion on the Kansas

Legislature and COVID-19 budget impacts

  • Question and answer
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SLIDE 6

TH THE I IMPACT OF F THE P E PANDEM EMIC ON STATE A AND D PROVIN INCIA IAL BUDGE GETS PRESEN ENTER ERS

David West Chief Economist and Deputy Officer Financial Accountability Office of Ontario dwest@fao-on.org Shelby Kerns Executive Director National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) skerns@nasbo.org

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SLIDE 7

Fiscal Condition

  • f the States

July 9, 2020 Shelby Kerns Executive Director skerns@nasbo.org

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SLIDE 8

11

Revenue Sources in the General Fund

Sales 30.1% Personal Income 44.9% Corporate Income 6.5% Gaming 1.0% All Other GF Revenue 17.5%

Estimated Fiscal 2019

11

Source: NASBO State Expenditure Report

Percentage

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SLIDE 9

12

General Funds Expenditures

K-12 35.6% Higher Education 9.6% Public Assistance 0.9% All Other 26.7% Corrections 6.6% Transportation 0.9% Medicaid 19.7%

Estimated Fiscal 2019

12

Source: NASBO State Expenditure Report

By Function

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SLIDE 10

13

Total State Expenditures

General Funds, 40.8% Other State Funds, 26.6% Bonds, 1.9% Federal Funds, 30.7%

FY19 $2,119 Billion

13

By Fund Source

Source: NASBO State Expenditure Report

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SLIDE 11

14

Total State Expenditures

K-12 19.5% Higher Education 10.1% Public Assistance 1.2% All Other 29.1% Corrections 3.0% Transportation 8.1% Medicaid 28.9%

Estimated Fiscal 2019

14

By Function

Source: NASBO State Expenditure Report

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SLIDE 12

Finished FY 2019 with revenue surpluses Rainy day funds at highest levels FY 2020 budgets include another year of modest spending growth K-12 and Higher Ed – usually big gainers in good times Cautionary tale: preparing for the next downturn Long term challenges: pensions and retiree health liabilities; infrastructure and transportation demands

What was the state fiscal environment for 2020 legislative sessions? (FEBRUARY 2020)

15 15

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SLIDE 13

46 States Had Fiscal 2019 Revenue Collections Exceed Budget Projections

16

36 9 10 7 20 7 25 27 2 2 7

2 9 5 6 5 4 5 5 8 2 18

12 32 35 37 25 39 20 18 40 46 17

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NUMBER OF STATES

General Fund Revenue Collections Compared to Budget Projections by Fiscal Year

LOWER ON TARGET HIGHER

Source: Fall 2019 Fiscal Survey of States

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SLIDE 14

Most States Continued to Strengthen Rainy Day Funds

Median balance reached all- time high 41 States Reported Increases in Fiscal 2019; 32 States Were Forecasting Increases in Fiscal 2020

17

4.6% 0.7% 4.8% 1.6% 5.6% 7.6% 8.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

% OF GENERAL FUND SPENDING

Median Rainy Day Fund Balance Over Time

Source: Fall 2019 Fiscal Survey of States

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SLIDE 15

State General Fund Spending Was Expected to See Moderate Increase In Fiscal 2020, Following Above-Average Growth in Fiscal 2019 45 States Enacted Spending Increases in Fiscal 2020

18

3.2 5.8 4.8

  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 %

Annual General Fund Expenditure Growth, Nominal (%)

  • 41-year historical average annual nominal growth rate in state general fund spending is 5.4 percent.
  • Source: Fall 2019 Fiscal Survey of States

*Average

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SLIDE 16

No States Made Mid-Year Budget Reductions in Fiscal 2019 Due to a Shortfall

Budget Cuts Made After The Budget Passed

20 28 35 22 9 8 13 7 2 3 1 16 37 37 18 5 2 4 13 41 39 19 8 11 8 14 19 22 7 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 NUMBER OF STATES IN BILLIONS Number of states Amount of reduction

Recession ends Recession ends Recession ends

Note: Beginning in Fiscal 2018, NASBO asked states reporting net mid-year budget reductions as to whether the reductions were made due, at least in part, to a revenue shortfall. Effective in FY2018 going forward, only states reporting mid-year budget cuts due to a shortfall are included in the totals reported in this figure. Prior to FY2018, particularly in non-recessionary periods, states that reported mid-year cuts that were due to other reasons, such as a reduction in caseload, would have been included in the counts above.

19

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SLIDE 17

Key Themes & Common Budget Items for Fiscal 2020 (FEBRUARY 2020)

  • Teacher pay increases
  • Early Education – Pre-K

expansions

  • More states starting and

expanding last dollar two- year college degrees

  • Medicaid expansion and

some supplemental funds for FY 2019

  • Corrections employees –

additional hiring and increased pay

  • Children’s service/child

welfare

  • Housing
  • Workforce Development
  • Broadband/wireless

expansion

  • Full funding of pension

contributions plus some extra for unfunded liabilities

  • State employee pay increases

– many budgets have 2 to 3%. Most number states in many years

  • One-time spending from one-

time funds – many different initiatives

20

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SLIDE 18

State Budgets Provide Significant New Resources for Education & Other Key Priorities

Enacted General Fund Budgets for Fiscal 2020 Provide for Net Appropriation Increases of $39.1 Billion

21

$10.9 $3.0 $0.4 $8.4 $1.6 $0.6 $16.3 $14.8 $4.4 $1.0 $4.9 $2.5 $0.6 $10.8

$0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 $12.0 $14.0 $16.0 $18.0 K-12 Higher Education Public Assistance Medicaid Corrections Transportation All Other In Billions

2019 Enacted 2020 Enacted

Net increases for fiscal 2020 are compared to enacted appropriation levels for fiscal 2019. Net increases for fiscal 2019 are compared to enacted levels for fiscal 2018.

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SLIDE 19

All sources of revenue (personal income, sales, corporate income, motor fuel, gaming) are being impacted by COVID-19 Impacting states in different ways and different magnitudes - e.g. oil producing states; tourism; manufacturing Different than other recessions – public health emergency and sharp economic declines States are facing both increased spending demands and significant revenue declines States are revising revenue forecasts

What is the current fiscal environment for states? (JULY 2020)

22 22

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SLIDE 20

Ways to address budget shortfalls

  • Budget cuts
  • Can include targeted cuts, across the board, personnel, etc.
  • Rainy day funds and reserves
  • Size of shortfalls greater than amount in rainy day funds
  • Try not to drain immediately
  • Increased taxes
  • Typically not first option and amount less than budget cuts
  • Federal aid
  • Was very helpful during Great Recession
  • This time: question of how flexible and how much

23

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SLIDE 21

Strategies Used to Manage Budgets, Fiscal 2010

24 35 states TARGETED CUTS 25 states ACROSS THE BOARD CUTS 13 states CUTS TO STATE EMPLOYEE BENEFITS 24 states LAYOFFS 19 states REDUCE LOCAL AID 14 states REORGANIZE AGENCIES 13 states RAINY DAY FUND 19 states USER FEES 16 states FURLOUGHS 9 states SALARY REDUCTIONS

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SLIDE 22

Revenue declines during Great Recession (From fiscal 2008 to fiscal 2010)

  • Total general fund revenue: -11.6%
  • Sales tax: -6.8%
  • Personal income tax: - 14.7%
  • Corporate income tax: - 24.1%
  • Gaming: -7.8%
  • All other revenue: -8.2%

25

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SLIDE 23

General fund expenditure declines during the Great Recession (From fiscal 2008 to fiscal 2010)

  • Elementary and secondary education: -7.9%
  • Higher education: -10.5%
  • Public assistance: -5.5%
  • Medicaid: -16.2%
  • Corrections: -3.9%
  • Transportation: -15.5%
  • All other: -7.6%
  • Total -9.2%

26

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SLIDE 24

COVID-19 Response Bills and Other Actions

Coronavirus Preparedness & Response Supplemental Appropriations Act (P.L. 116-123) Enacted 3/6/20

  • Includes $8.3B in supplemental spending, $1.05B to states & localities

Families First Coronavirus Response Act (P.L. 116-127) Enacted 3/18/20

  • Various appropriations, increases FMAP, unemployment insurance stabilization, emergency family medical leave,

emergency paid sick leave Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act (P.L. 116-136) Enacted 3/27/20

  • Provides more than $2 trillion in relief

Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act (P.L. 116-139) Enacted 4/24/20

  • $483 billion including $310 billion to replenish the Paycheck Protection Program, $11 billion to states and locals

for COVID-19 testing Other Actions include major disaster declarations, Medicaid flexibilities, food and nutrition assistance flexibilities, etc.

27

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SLIDE 25

Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act

  • Passed the Senate (96-0) on March 25 and passed the House (voice vote) on March 27. The President

signed the bill on March 27.

  • Provides more than $2 trillion in relief to individuals; businesses; state, local and federal agencies;

and industry sectors impacted by COVID-19.

  • Provisions of importance to states:
  • $150 billion Coronavirus Relief Fund
  • $30.75 billion Education Stabilization Fund
  • $1.5 billion from CDC for mitigation, preparedness and response activities
  • $100 billion Provider Relief Fund
  • $1.32 billion for Community Health Centers
  • $400 million in election security grants
  • $5 billion for Community Development Block Grant and $4 billion for Emergency Solutions
  • Expands unemployment compensation (UC) by adding an additional $600 per week to regular UC,

adding 13 more weeks to regular UC, expanding UC to those normally ineligible such as the self- employed or gig workers.

  • Provides $500 billion to the Economic Stabilization Act, to provide liquidity to businesses, states and

municipalities for losses incurred as a result of the coronavirus.

  • Federal Reserve created the Municipal Liquidity Facility to purchase short-term notes issued by states and certain

counties/cities.

28

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SLIDE 26

States will continue to respond to increased spending demands from the coronavirus Taking actions to ensure fiscal 2020 budgets are balanced Adjusting revenue forecasts for fiscal 2021 Fiscal 2021 budgets will continue to be revised, including after enactment Question of how much federal aid and how flexible States will likely face impact of COVID-19 for many years to come

Outlook for states FY 2020 and beyond

29 29

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SLIDE 27

Shelby Kerns Executive Director

National Association of State Budget Officers | NASBO

www.nasbo.org

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SLIDE 28

The Impact of COVID-19 on Ontario’s Provincial Budget

Presentation to CSG Midwestern Legislative Conference July 9, 2020

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SLIDE 29

32 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • An independent, non-partisan office comparable in function to the

Congressional Budget Office

  • Supports Ontario’s Legislative Assembly by providing parliamentarians

with balanced and timely economic and financial analysis.

  • Budget offices, like the FAO, improve the transparency of

government and help legislatures hold governments accountable.

Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office

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SLIDE 30

33 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • Population: 14.6 million (39% of Canada)
  • Labour market: Employed: 7.5 million (+210,000), Unemployment Rate:

5.6%

  • GDP: $860 billion CA (~$635 billion US)
  • Sectoral distribution: (% of GDP

, 2019) Goods: 23% Manufacturing: 12% Services: 77% Real Estate: 13% Professional and Administrative Services: 10% Finance and Insurance: 9%

  • Key Export Markets

US: 79.8.% UK: 6.5% China and Hong Kong: 2.5% Mexico: 1.3%

* 2019 data

Ontario Key Facts*

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SLIDE 31

34 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • FAO released an Economic and Budget Outlook on May 11.
  • The outlook hinges on the continuing success of the current

measures to contain the pandemic and the pace at which the containment measures can be lifted.

  • Our forecast assumed that the economy would be gradually

reopened through the middle of the summer.

  • Assumption based on the government’s framework for reopening

Ontario.

COVID-19 pandemic having severe impact

  • n Ontario economy and Province’s finances
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SLIDE 32

35 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • FAO projects Ontario real GDP will decline by a record 9.0 per cent in

2020, the result of broad government-directed shutdowns.

  • As containment measures are eased, the economy will recover, with real

GDP projected to partially rebound by 8.5 per cent next year.

Pandemic has pushed Ontario economy into historic recession

2.5 2.1 2.9 2.2 1.6

  • 9.0

8.5 4.6 4.0 4.6 3.7 3.9

  • 8.8

9.8

  • 10.0
  • 6.0
  • 2.0

2.0 6.0 10.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Historical Projection

Ontario GDP Growth (Per Cent)

Real Nominal

Source: Ontario Economic Accounts and FAO.

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SLIDE 33

36 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

Pandemic has caused record job losses

  • Ontario has lost 1.2 million jobs since February.
  • Unemployment rate jumped to 13.6 per cent in May, highest on

record.

Source: Statistics Canada and FAO.

3,500.0 4,500.0 5,500.0 6,500.0 7,500.0 1976 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Employment (Thousands)

1981-1982 recession 1990-1991 recession 2008-2009 recession COVID-19 shutdowns March -402.8 April -689.2 May -64.5 Monthly Employment Loss (Thousands)

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SLIDE 34

37 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • Employment to drop 7.0 per cent in 2020 (-524,000 jobs).
  • Unemployment rate will almost double to 10.5 per cent in 2020.

Record job losses lead to near doubling in annual unemployment rate

Source: Statistics Canada and FAO.

  • 524

10.5 4 6 8 10 12

  • 600
  • 400
  • 200

200 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Historical Projection Unemployment Rate (Per Cent) Employmnet Change (Thousands)

Employment Change (left axis) Unemployment Rate (right axis)

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SLIDE 35

38 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • Sharp economic contraction will result in a $21.7 billion revenue drop

this year.

  • As economy recovers, revenues expected to rebound -- but will remain

below 2019-20 level.

Province’s revenues will drop by record amount this year

140.7 150.6 153.7 154.7 133.0 150.5 120.0 135.0 150.0 165.0 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Historical Projection Revenue ($ Billions)

Source: Ontario Public Accounts and FAO..

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SLIDE 36

39 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • Ontario government plans to increase program spending by 5.2 per

cent this year, more than double the pace previously announced.

Program spending to increase faster than previously planned

Source: 2019 Ontario Budget, 2019 Ontario Economic and Fiscal Review, and Ontario March 2020 Economic and Fiscal Update.

1.2 2.1 5.2

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 2019 Ontario Budget 2019 Ontario Economic and Fiscal Review March 2020 Economic and Fiscal Update Program Spending Growth, 2020-21 (Per Cent)

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SLIDE 37

40 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • Ontario’s budget deficit projected to quadruple to $41.0 billion this

year, or 5 per cent of GDP , a record high.

  • Modest improvement to $25.3 billion, expected next year.

Record budget deficit projected this year

Note: Budget balance is presented before reserve. Source: Statistics Canada, Ontario Economic Accounts, Ontario Public Accounts, Ontario March 2020 Economic and Fiscal Update, and FAO.

  • 12.4
  • 19.3
  • 41.0
  • 25.3
  • 7.5
  • 5.0
  • 2.5

0.0

  • 50.0
  • 35.0
  • 20.0
  • 5.0

10.0

1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Historical Projection

Budget Balance as a Share of GDP (Per Cent) Budget Balance ($ Billions) Budget Balance (left axis) Budget Balance as a Share of GDP (right axis)

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SLIDE 38

41 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • Budget deficits over the next two years will push up Ontario’s debt-

to-GDP ratio to record high of about 49 per cent by next year.

Ontario’s debt burden will reach record high

Source: Statistics Canada, Ontario Economic Accounts, Ontario Public Accounts, Ontario March 2020 Economic and Fiscal Update, and FAO.

40.5 48.7 0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0 60.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0

1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Historical Projection

Net Debt to GDP (Per Cent) Net Debt ($ Billions) Net Debt (left axis) Net Debt to GDP (right axis)

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SLIDE 39

42 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • Despite much higher debt, historically low interest rates will dampen

rise in debt servicing costs.

  • Interest payments as a share of revenue are expected to rise to 9.8

cents in 2020-21, up from 8.0 cents the prior year.

Debt servicing costs moderated by lower interest rates

Source: Ontario Public Accounts, Ontario March 2020 Economic and Fiscal Update, and FAO.

8.0 9.8 8.9 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 6.0 11.0 16.0 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Historical Projection Interest on Debt as a Share of Revenue (Per Cent) Interest on Debt ($ Billions) Interest on Debt (left axis) Interest on Debt as a Share of Revenue (right axis)

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SLIDE 40

43 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • Reopening Ontario
  • All regions currently in stage 2 of the government’s 3-stage framework for

reopening.

  • Government expected to announce move to stage 3 – and a broader re-
  • pening of businesses and community facilities in the coming weeks.
  • Ontario’s 2020 Budget: expected by November
  • Government required to release a multi-year fiscal plan that includes a path

to a balanced budget as well as a debt burden reduction strategy.

  • Update on Ontario’s Credit Rating
  • Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s, and DBRS Morningstar have all reaffirmed

Ontario’s credit rating and outlook.

  • Fitch is expected to release its update soon, having recently downgraded

Canada and Alberta’s rating.

What’s Next

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SLIDE 41

44 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

Sharp Deterioration in Budget Outlook for all Provinces

Source: *Pre-pandemic data based on government budgets prior to COVID-19 and post-pandemic data is based on consensus average. ** Scotiabank.

1.5

  • 2.3

41.7

  • 6.3
  • 4.6

50.6 Real GDP Growth* Budget Balance to GDP ** Debt to GDP **

Ontario

Pre-COVID Post-COVID 2.5

  • 1.9

12.1

  • 8.4
  • 6.8

22.6 Real GDP Growth* Budget Balance to GDP ** Debt to GDP **

Alberta

Pre-COVID Post-COVID 1.2

  • 0.3

34.2

  • 4.5
  • 4

40.7 Real GDP Growth* Budget Balance to GDP ** Debt to GDP **

Manitoba

Pre-COVID Post-COVID 1.7 0.1 14.3

  • 6.7
  • 3.3

20.8 Real GDP Growth* Budget Balance to GDP ** Debt to GDP **

Saskatchewan

Pre-COVID Post-COVID

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SLIDE 42

45 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • Public health concerns could cause containment measures to be lifted

more slowly, weakening the economic recovery.

  • In a delayed recovery scenario, real GDP would decline by 9.3 per cent in

2020, followed by a significantly more muted recovery of 4.6 per cent in 2021.

Economic growth would be weaker if pandemic is prolonged

*Adjusted for 2019 Q4 data from Ontario Economic Accounts. Source: Ontario Economic Accounts and FAO.

600,000 650,000 700,000 750,000 800,000 850,000 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 Historical Projection Real GDP $ Millions Chained (2012) FAO Fall 2019 Outlook* FAO Spring 2020 Outlook Delayed Recovery

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SLIDE 43

46 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

  • If Ontario’s economic recovery is delayed, budget deficits and provincial

debt would be much higher.

  • The budget deficit would deteriorate to a $45.3 billion in 2020-21 and recover

modestly to $37.6 billion in 2021-22.

Ontario’s fiscal position would deteriorate if economic recovery is delayed

  • 41.0
  • 25.3
  • 45.3
  • 37.6
  • 50.0
  • 40.0
  • 30.0
  • 20.0
  • 10.0

0.0 2020-21 2021-22 Budget Balance ($ Billions) FAO Spring 2020 Update Delayed Recovery

Source: FAO.

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SLIDE 44

47 Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | fao-on.org

Indicators Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Pre-Pandemic forecast 2020-21 Real GDP Growth* 2.5 1.7 1.2 1.5 Budget balance as per cent of GDP**

  • 1.9

0.1

  • 0.3
  • 2.3

Debt/GDP ratio (Per Cent)** 12.1 14.3 34.2 41.7 Post-Pandemic forecast 2020-21 Real GDP Growth*

  • 8.4
  • 6.7
  • 4.5
  • 6.3

Budget balance as per cent of GDP**

  • 6.8
  • 3.3
  • 4.0
  • 4.6

Debt to GDP Ratio** 22.6 20.8 40.7 50.6

Fiscal comparison of select provinces

Source: *Pre-pandemic data based on government budgets prior to COVID-19 and post-pandemic data is based on consensus average. ** Scotiabank.

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SLIDE 45

2 Bloor Street West, Suite 900, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3E2 416.644.0702 info@fao-on.org

fao-on.org

Thank you

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SLIDE 46

TH THE I IMPACT OF F THE P E PANDEM EMIC ON STATE A AND D PROVIN INCIA IAL BUDGE GETS MODERATOR OR

  • Sen. Carolyn McGinn

Kansas Chair, Senate Ways & Means Committee 2nd Vice Chair, Midwestern Legislative Conference

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SLIDE 47

TH THE I IMPACT OF F THE P E PANDEM EMIC ON STATE A AND D PROVIN INCIA IAL BUDGE GETS DISC SCUSSI SION

Questions? Comments?

Type your question in the question pane to be read by staff OR “Raise your hand” and we will unmute your line when we announce your name

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SLIDE 48

TH THE I IMPACT OF F THE P E PANDEM EMIC ON STATE A AND D PROVIN INCIA IAL BUDGE GETS RES ESOURCES ES

NASBO

  • “States Work to Finalize Fiscal 2021 Budgets”
  • “State Fiscal Outlook: Pre- & Post-COVID-19”
  • “Coronavirus Resources”

Financial Accountability Office of Ontario

  • “Tourism, Culture and Heritage: An Overview of the Tourism,

Culture and Heritage Economic Sectors, Related Ministry Programs and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic”

  • “Ontario’s Regional Labour Markets During the COVID-19

Pandemic”

  • “Economic and Budget Outlook, Spring 2020”

For further information or research assistance, contact Mitch Arvidson at CSG Midwest: marvidson@csg.org

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SLIDE 49

LOOK OOKING B BEYON OND THE P E PANDEM EMIC WEB EBINAR S R SERI RIES

Thank you for joining us today! Future Webinars:​

  • Lessons Learned: Preparing for the Next Public

Emergency July 16 | 10:00 a.m. CDT

  • Back to Business: Assessing Economic Reopening

Strategies July 23 | 10:00 a.m. CDT Register on the CSG Midwest website csgmidwest.org