Provincial elections: A Neglected Treasure Trove Richard Johnston - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Provincial elections: A Neglected Treasure Trove Richard Johnston UBC Provincial Election Studies Ontario 1968, 1977 2002 (Cutler & Lyle) BC 1979-80 Quebec sovereignty study 1995 ..... ...........
province | Freq. Percent Cum.
10 | 1,480 3.10 3.10 11 | 1,349 2.83 5.93 12 | 1,828 3.83 9.76 13 | 1,822 3.82 13.58 24 | 12,630 26.48 40.06 35 | 13,745 28.81 68.87 46 | 2,446 5.13 74.00 47 | 2,367 4.96 78.96 48 | 4,235 8.88 87.84 59 | 5,612 11.76 99.61 60 | 90 0.19 99.80 61 | 97 0.20 100.00
Total | 47,701 100.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30
Marginal effect
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
% Catholic in province Federal Provincial
C0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30
Marginal effect
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
% Catholic in province Federal Provincial
CFIGURE 6 The Provincial “Counterfactual” II Conditional Impact of Union Membership and Religious Context,1965-2011
Note: Data from Canadian Election S estimation by probit with stacked dat census data by province and duplicat tion Studies and from the census in corresponding years. Quebec and Catholic respondents excluded. Underlying ked data. Vertical bars are 95% confidence intervals, based on asymptotic standard errors reflecting clustering of nd duplication of independent variables across stacks.
ResLastCall | Date | Freq. Percent Cum.
2.01e+07 | 36 3.57 3.57 2.01e+07 | 36 3.57 7.14 2.01e+07 | 30 2.98 10.12 2.01e+07 | 36 3.57 13.69 2.01e+07 | 37 3.67 17.36 2.01e+07 | 57 5.65 23.02 2.01e+07 | 21 2.08 25.10 2.01e+07 | 68 6.75 31.85 2.01e+07 | 32 3.17 35.02 2.01e+07 | 23 2.28 37.30 2.01e+07 | 26 2.58 39.88 2.01e+07 | 19 1.88 41.77 2.01e+07 | 23 2.28 44.05 2.01e+07 | 24 2.38 46.43 2.01e+07 | 40 3.97 50.40 2.01e+07 | 37 3.67 54.07 2.01e+07 | 41 4.07 58.13 2.01e+07 | 36 3.57 61.71 2.01e+07 | 34 3.37 65.08 2.01e+07 | 27 2.68 67.76 2.01e+07 | 25 2.48 70.24 2.01e+07 | 29 2.88 73.12 2.01e+07 | 37 3.67 76.79 2.01e+07 | 34 3.37 80.16 2.01e+07 | 37 3.67 83.83 2.01e+07 | 42 4.17 88.00 2.01e+07 | 32 3.17 91.17 2.01e+07 | 37 3.67 94.84 2.01e+07 | 52 5.16 100.00
Total | 1,008 100.00
Did | Respondent | Vote | Freq. Percent Cum.
0 | 1,000 50.00 50.00 1 | 1,000 50.00 100.00
Total | 2,000 100.00
0.10 0.25 0.40 0.55 0.70
l0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 Proportion intending to vote for party 1 8 15 22 29 Days to election Liberal NDP
Smoothing by loess bandwidth = 0.20
Province | Freq. Percent Cum.
Ontario | 1,044 26.10 26.10 pei | 509 12.72 38.83 nfld | 851 21.27 60.10 mb | 775 19.38 79.47 sk | 821 20.52 100.00
Total | 4,000 100.00