THE IMPACT OF THE ESTABLISHMENT GEO-INNO Conference Barcelona OF A - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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THE IMPACT OF THE ESTABLISHMENT GEO-INNO Conference Barcelona OF A - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 02, 2024 314 likes •585 views

Friday February 2 nd 2018 THE IMPACT OF THE ESTABLISHMENT GEO-INNO Conference Barcelona OF A UNIVERSITY ON THE REGIONAL Gerwin Evers LABOUR MARKET FOR GRADUATES IKE-group at Aalborg University RUNIN project CONTEXT Universities role in a

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THE IMPACT OF THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A UNIVERSITY ON THE REGIONAL LABOUR MARKET FOR GRADUATES

Friday February 2nd 2018 GEO-INNO Conference Barcelona Gerwin Evers IKE-group at Aalborg University RUNIN project

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CONTEXT

  • Universities role in a knowledge based economy
  • Universities in peripheral regions
  • Peripheral regions

➢ Organizational thinness ➢ Small and non-knowledge intensive companies ➢ Low availability of high skilled workers… …..but also limited demand

  • University as fast growing supplier of graduates
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MAIN QUESTION

What impact does the establishment of a peripheral university have on the regional graduate labour market?

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THEORY

  • Labour market

➢ Not a perfect market: Low elasticity of supply and demand

  • Early cohorts

➢ Low supply and initial demand ➢ Strong labour market position Hypotheses 1: The early graduate cohorts earn relative high wages

  • Over time

➢ New universities tend to experience a rapid growth ➢ Increasing the knowledge intensity of the local economy is a more gradual process Hypotheses 2: Wage premium is weakening over time Hypotheses 3: Mobility is increasing over time

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EMPIRICAL CONTEXT

  • The North Denmark region

➢ Population wise smallest of Denmark ➢ Main city Aalborg ➢ Traditional industry structure… …..but also development of some knowledge intensive sectors

  • Aalborg university

➢ Founded in 1974 as successor of existing higher education institutions ➢ Last region to receive its first university ➢ Technical oriented university, but with a large social sciences faculty

Source: Wikimedia commons

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METHODS

  • Register data

➢ Micro-level data of all Danes

➢ Wide variety of variables

  • Data availability restricts analyses to 1987-2007
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DATA ANALYSES WAGES(1)

  • Controlling for

➢ Degree ➢ Labour market experience ➢ Cost of living

  • Calculate weighted average per year
  • Comparing to control group
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DATA ANALYSES WAGES(2)

  • Wages for a group of graduates from Aalborg University

living in North Denmark

Degree Experience Number of people Wage Bachelor Psychology 2 year 10 200kr Bachelor Astronomy 5 year 5 300kr Master Computer Science 25 year 5 500kr Master Biotechnology 9 year 20 400kr Weighted average wage (2000+1500+2500+8000)/40 350kr

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DATA ANALYSES WAGES(3)

  • Wages for the control group from other universities

living in other regions

Degree Experience Number of people(in NDK) Wage Bachelor Psychology 2 year 10 300kr Bachelor Astronomy 5 year 5 400kr Master Computer Science 25 year 5 600kr Master Biotechnology 9 year 20 500kr Weighted average wage (3000+2000+3000+10000)/40 450kr

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DATA ANALYSES WAGES(4)

  • Calculate cost of living index based on average wage of

people in North Denmark and….

Degree Experience Number of people(in NDK) Wage Primary school 10 year 500 100kr Carpenter 25 year 100 200kr Bachelor communication 10 year 20 300kr Master Criminology 15 year 10 300kr Weighted average wage

(50000+20000+6000+3000)/630

125kr

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DATA ANALYSES WAGES(5)

  • ….average wage for control group of people living in
  • ther regions

Degree Experience Number of people(in NDK) Wage Primary school 10 year 500 150kr Carpenter 25 year 100 250kr Bachelor communication 10 year 20 350kr Master Criminology 15 year 10 350kr Weighted average wage

(75000+25000+7000+3500)/630

175kr

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DATA ANALYSES WAGES(6)

  • Average wage North Denmark: 125kr
  • Average wage control group: 175kr
  • Cost of living index: 175/125=1.4
  • Wages of control group will be divided by the cost of

living index, before comparing

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DATA ANALYSES MOBILITY

  • Mobility

➢ Grouping based on place of residence prior and after studying: ➢ Development of the (relative) size of groups over time Residence after graduation Residence prior to study North Denmark Outside North Denmark Locals Leavers Outside Stayers Visitors

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PRELIMINARY RESULTS WAGES(1)

100 kr. 150 kr. 200 kr. 250 kr. 300 kr. 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Average wage controlled for cost of living

Figure 1: Development of wages between 1987-2007

AAU group Control group (controlled for price-level index)

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PRELIMINARY RESULTS WAGES(2)

95,0% 97,5% 100,0% 102,5% 105,0% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Average wage ratio controlled for cost

  • f living

Figure 2: Development of wages between 1987-2007 (Index=Control group)

AAU group Control group (controlled for price-level index)

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PRELIMINARY RESULTS WAGES(2)

95,0% 97,5% 100,0% 102,5% 105,0% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Average wage ratio controlled for cost

  • f living

Figure 2: Development of wages between 1987-2007 (Index=Control group)

AAU group Control group (controlled for price-level index)

1

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PRELIMINARY RESULTS WAGES(2)

95,0% 97,5% 100,0% 102,5% 105,0% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Average wage ratio controlled for cost

  • f living

Figure 2: Development of wages between 1987-2007 (Index=Control group)

AAU group Control group (controlled for price-level index)

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PRELIMINARY RESULTS MOBILITY(1)

75 150 225 300 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Number of AAU graduates in mobility pattern per cohort

Figure 3: Mobility AAU graduates between 1987-2007

Visitors Stayers Locals Leavers

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PRELIMINARY RESULTS MOBILITY(2)

20 40 60 80 100 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Net outward mobility

Figure 4: Net outward mobility 1987-2007

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PRELIMINARY RESULTS MOBILITY(3)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Net mobility as share of graduates

  • riginally from the region

Figure 5: Net mobility as share of graduates

  • riginally from the region 1987-2010
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PRELIMINARY RESULTS MOBILITY(4)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Likelihood graduate staying in North Denmark

Figure 6: Likelihood staying in the region, by origin, 1987-2007

Graduates originally from North Denmark Graduates originally from outside North Denmark

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RESEARCH AGENDA

  • Look at other Danish universities
  • Look at yearly cohorts
  • Look at differences between degrees (engineers vs social sciences)
  • Look at gender differences
  • Calculate cost-of-living index on municipality level
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WRAP UP

  • Above average labour market position….

…but wage premium disappears over time

  • Net mobility is constant….

….but relative mobility is declining

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TAKEAWAYS

  • Peripheral universities can play an important role in increasing the human

capital in the region…. …but the regional economy does not develop in the same pace

  • Mobility is not the norm for graduates…..

….and peripheral universities have the potential to develop into an important educational institution at the national level

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Thank you for your attention!

Questions?

Gerwin Evers Aalborg University

This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Maria Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 722295

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Thank you for your attention!

Questions?

Gerwin Evers Aalborg University

This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Maria Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 722295