The Great Reversal Thomas Philippon NYU, NBER, CEPR Banque de - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Great Reversal Thomas Philippon NYU, NBER, CEPR Banque de France, PSE, December 2019 The Rise in US Concentration Panel A. Cumulative Change in CR8 (%) 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Manufacturing NonManufacturing Source: U.S.

The Great Reversal Thomas Philippon NYU, NBER, CEPR Banque de France, PSE, December 2019
The Rise in US Concentration Panel A. Cumulative Change in CR8 (%) 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Manufacturing Non−Manufacturing Source: U.S. Economic Census for all Businesses. Dashed lines because of changes in industry classification from SIC to NAICS.
Two Big Questions • Good vs. Bad Concentration? - Good concentration: low prices and productivity growth • e.g, retail & wholesale trade • returns to scale; intangible investment - Bad concentration: high prices and low productivity • e.g., telecoms, airlines, healthcare • what are these barriers? • Technology vs. Policy? - Network effects vs regulation & antitrust
Walmart .08 .6 .07 .4 Market Share Profit Margin .06 .2 .05 .04 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 year Profit Margin Market Share
Missing Investment from Concentrating Industries Wtd Average Cumulative K gap .05 0 −.05 −.1 −.15 1990 2000 2010 2020 year Top 10 dlog(CR8) Bottom 10 dlog(CR8) . .
Concentration: EU vs. US
Comparison of Telecom Prices in FR vs US Relative Price of Communication in France 1.2 1.1 Relative price 1 .9 .8 .7 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 year
Markups EU vs US
Lobbying Expenditures 3.5 Total Lobbying Expenditures ($ BN USD) 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year US − Total US − Business EU − Total EU − Business
The MissingTrillion Dollar • Monthly savings per households: $300 • Nationwide annual household direct savings: $600 billion • General equilibrium impact of returning to competitive markets - GDP: $1 trillion - Labor Income: $1.25 trillion - Profits: -$250 billion
Firm Entry Rate 8 10 12 14 16 1975 1985 Barriers to Entry? Entry rate 1995 Restrictions 2005 2015 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Median # of Restrictions (NAICS−4)
Fading Stars
The Failure of Free Entry All 1.5 Elasticity of dLogN(t,t+2) w.r.t. Q(t) 1 .5 0 −.5 1975 1985 1995 2005 CPSTAT (Firm) QCEW (Estab) SUSB (Firm)
Good Concentration / Bad Concentration Average scores for PC1 and PC2 .6 .4 .2 0 −.2 −.4 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year PC1: "Intangibles" PC2: "Barriers to Entry"

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