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Source: Shrinking Cities Project. Office Oswalt, Tim Rieniets. 2006. Accessed 3/2/07. http://www.shrinkingcities.com/fileadmin/shrink/downloads/pressebilder/1_World_Map.pdf
The Great Recession, depopulation and urban planning in the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Great Recession, depopulation and urban planning in the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Great Recession, depopulation and urban planning in the American Sunbelt Justin Hollander Urban + Environmental Policy + Planning Tufts University Source: Shrinking Cities Project. Office Oswalt, Tim Rieniets. 2006. Accessed 3/2/07.
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Decline of >1% housing units 2/06 – 2/09
Source: USPS residential delivery data (2009)
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SLIDE 5
History of the Sunbelt (Worster 1985; Abbot
1981)
Housing / Land Use Changes (1990s – 2006) Foreclosure Crisis (Immergluck 2009) Policy/Planning Responses
SLIDE 6
Transect Model for smart growth
It is OK to grow, just preserve ecozone
integrity
Reverse Transect Model for smart
decline
It is OK to decline, just preserve ecozone
integrity
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SLIDE 8
①
How has the Sunbelt physically changed?
②
What would Reverse Transect Planning look like in the shrinking Sunbelt?
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U.S. Postal Service dataset
Active residential deliveries for all zip codes,
2/06-2/09
Sunbelt cities
Large (100k +) cities within states located
south of 37th parallel
N=140 cities
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Descriptive statistics; Correlation analysis with U.S. Census
data;
Follow-up ground-truthing through three
case studies (Fresno [CA], Phoenix [AZ], and Orlando [FL]).
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Of 140 Sunbelt cities, 26 lost population
from 2006-2008;
Among 26 cities, mean loss = 1,660
people (1,603 SD).
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CITY STATE JULY ‘08 JUL ‘06 CHANGE ’06-’08
Baton Rouge city Louisiana 223,689 230,369
- 6,680
Columbus city Georgia 186,984 191,578
- 4,594
Jackson city Mississippi 173,861 177,999
- 4,138
Hialeah city Florida 210,542 213,854
- 3,312
Long Beach city California 463,789 466,751
- 2,962
Pembroke Pines city Florida 145,661 148,069
- 2,408
Coral Springs city Florida 125,783 128,023
- 2,240
- St. Petersburg city
Florida 245,314 247,515
- 2,201
Hollywood city Florida 141,740 143,853
- 2,113
Birmingham city Alabama 228,798 230,733
- 1,935
Source: US Census Bureau (2009)
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USPS housing counts from 2006 correlate very
highly with U.S. Census housing counts from 2000 (Pearson’s r =0.97)
Among 140 Sunbelt cities, 28 lost housing units
from 2/06-2/09;
Among 28 cities, mean loss = 3% of housing
units.
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Among 28 shrinking cities, 1,634 valid zip
codes;
1/3 lost housing units, the remainder
gained;
80% of all cities in the study had at least
- ne zip code that lost housing units.
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564 zip codes lost housing units (out of
1,634 total)
They lost, on average 4% of their housing
units (10% SD)
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Protect and Maintain Properties (carrots
and sticks);
Get abandoned properties into a “land
bank” and turn them over to abutters or repurpose strategically;
Relaxed Zoning Ordinance
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Vacancy is severe and persistent in
Sunbelt cities
Local
government intervention is ineffective – focus is on growth
Reverse
Transect Model suggests
- pportunities for managing depopulation
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Read more…
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Justin Hollander, PhD, AICP Assistant Professor
Department of Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning Tufts University 97 Talbot Avenue Medford, Massachusetts 02155 USA tel: (617) 627-3394 email: justin.hollander@tufts.edu http://www.tufts.edu/~jholla03 Twitter: JustinHollander
Acknowledgements: This research was partially supported through the Faculty Research Award Committee at Tufts University and the Lincoln Institute of Land
- Policy. Research assistance was provided by Elizabeth Antin, Dan Zinder, and
Durwood Marshall. The transect diagram was partially developed by Sarah Spicer and Michelle Moon. Powerpoint design by Paige Mazurek.