Dr Peter Matanle 2 Growth and Shrinkage in East Asia 5 Many - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Population Decline and Climate Change in the 21 st Century Achieving a Depopulation Dividend in the Asia-Pacific Region Senior Lecturer and Director of Research and Innovation School of East Asian Studies, University of Sheffield, UK Dr Peter Matanle

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Growth and Shrinkage in East Asia 5

Many assume that depopulation will deliver some easy environmental gains.

Many assume that depopulation will deliver some easy environmental gains. It’s a seductive logic. But is it true?

Ageing in Japan: 1955, 1985, and 2013 100+ 100+ 100+ 95 95 95 90 90 90 85 85 85 80 80 80 Females 75 75 75 Males 70 70 70 Females 65 65 65 Males 60 60 60 55 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 35 35 35 30 30 30 25 25 25 Females 20 20 20 Males 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0

A Century of Growth and Shrinkage in Japan Actual and Projected Population, 1950-2050 100% 140 4.2 5.4 7.4 10.6 14.9 22.0 29.4 35.9 36.7 38.5 37.6 90% 120 80% 100 70% 50.2 95.1 Millions 60.5 60% 72.1 80 84.2 78.8 85.9 50% 86.2 81.3 60 73.6 40% 67.4 57.3 49.3 30% 40 20% 20 10% 29.8 28.4 25.1 27.5 22.5 18.6 16.5 13.2 11.1 9.8 8.2 0% 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0-14 15-64 65+ Total Population Projected Population 9

After the Demographic Dividend in East Asia Child and Old-Age Dependency Ratios 10

Growth Consolidation Stagnation Shrinkage 11

Growth Consolidation Stagnation Shrinkage 12

Tokyo Metropolis - Massive-scale urbanization 13

Tokyo Metropolis - Super-high density living 14

Tokyo Metropolis - High-rise multi-use urban functions 15

To kyo Metropolis - Sophisticated high-cost infrastructure 16

Rural Japan - Abandoned homes 17

Rural Japan - Abandoned farmland 18

Rural Japan - Disused and decaying infrastructure 19

Rural Japan - Collapsed industries 20

Rural Japan - Ghost towns 21

What is the ‘Depopulation Dividend’? Any benefits for socially and environmentally sustainable living that can be gained from depopulation. • Depopulation must occur in peace time, • and via non-coercive means. For example: Reductions in energy, water, food, and resource consumption. Biodiversity and ecosystem benefits. Land management and living space. Social benefits - gender equality and ethnic diversity, crime. International order.

Index of Growing and Shrinking Prefectures' Total Energy Consumption and Carbon Output, and GDP Growth: Japan, 1990-2012. 130 Growing Prefectures Total Energy Consumption Growing Prefectures Total Carbon Output Shrinking Prefectures Total Energy Consumption Shrinking Prefectures Total Carbon Output 125 GDP Growth 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Data sources: Enecho, 2015; World Bank, 2015.

Change in Total Carbon Output from Energy Consumption (left hand scale) and Population (right hand scale) 7 by Prefecture in Japan, 1990-2012. 1.4 6 1.2 Carbon Output (Million cT) Carbon Output Population 5 1 Population (Millions) 4 0.8 Data source: Enecho, 2015. 3 0.6 2 0.4 1 0.2 0 0 -1 -0.2 Change in Total Energy Consumption (left hand scale) and Population (right hand scale) Energy Consumption (Million Gigajoules) 140 by Prefecture in Japan, 1990-2012. 1.4 120 1.2 Energy Consumption Population Population (Millions) 100 1 Data source: Enecho, 2015. 80 0.8 60 0.6 40 0.4 20 0.2 0 0 -20 -0.2 -40 -0.4

Energy consumption went down in 2 of Japan’s 25 shrinking prefectures in 1990 - 2012 …

Energy consumption went down in 2 of Japan’s 25 shrinking prefectures in 1990 - 2012 … and in 5 of Japan’s 22 growing prefectures in 1990 -2012 .

Meaning and Implications Meaning Resource consumption, carbon output and biodiversity gains from population decline • may be harder to achieve than we expect. Implications Requirements for considerable research into the environmental consequences of • depopulation. Requirements for internationally coordinated structural intervention by government. •

Just as Japan led Asia’s development in the 20 th century, so in the 21 st Japan can once more lead Asia in achieving environmental gains from depopulation.

Recent publications Matanle, P. (2013) Post-disaster recovery in ageing and declining communities: the Great East Japan disaster of 11 March 2011, Geography , 98 (2): 68-76. Matanle, P. (2011) The Great East Japan Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Meltdown: Towards the (Re)Construction of a Safe, Sustainable, and Compassionate Society in Japan’s Shrinking Regions , Local Environment , 16 (9): 823-847 Matanle, P., Rausch, A., with the Shrinking Regions Research Group (2011) Japan’s Shrinking Regions in the 21st Century: Contemporary Responses to Depopulation and Socioeconomic Decline , Amherst, NY: Cambria Press. Matanle, P. and Sato, Y. (2010) Coming to a City Near You! Learning to Live ‘Beyond Growth’ in Japan’s Shrinking Regions , Social Science Japan Journal , 13 (2): 187-210. Dr. Peter Matanle University of Sheffield p.matanle@sheffield.ac.uk Website - www.peter-matanle.net More publications at: https://sheffield.academia.edu/PeterMatanle 31

Is immigration a solution? Natural Population Change (0/00) Total Fertility Rate Net Reproduction Rate 15 2.50 2.40 14 2.30 13 2.20 Natural Population change (Per hundred thousand persons) 12 2.10 2.00 11 1.90 Total Fertility and Net Reproduction Rates 10 1.80 9 1.70 1.60 8 1.50 8 1.40 7 1.30 1.20 6 1.10 5 1.00 4 0.90 0.80 3 0.70 2 0.60 1 0.50 0.40 0 0.30 -1 0.20 -2 0.10 -3 0.00 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 32 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Year

Is immigration a solution? Population Change in Japan 918,750 7,500,000 612,500 5,625,000 eNumber of People Number of People 306,250 3,750,000 0 1,875,000 -306,250 0 -612,500 -1,875,000 33 Net Migration (Japanese) Net Migration (Non-Japanese) Net Migration (All) Natural Population Change Total Population Change

Is immigration a solution? 2. The numbers required would be impossible to accept. (d) Scenario III • Medium variant projection of UN 1998 Revision • Population maintained at 2005/10 level of 127.5 million. • Need 17 million net immigrants to 2050 (381,000 annually). • 2050 = 22.5 million immigrants and descendants. • 17.7% of total population. (e) Scenario IV • Maintain working-age population constant at 87.2 million (1995). • Need 33.5 million immigrants from 1995 through to 2050 (609,000 annually). • Total population 150.7 million by 2050. • Immigrants and their descendants 46 million (30% of total population in 2050). 34

Is immigration a solution? 1. Japan is historically shy of contact with outsiders. 2. The numbers required would probably be politically impossible. 3. Or achieve; because China also will be shrinking soon. 4. Migrants may not settle in the regions which need them most. 5. Too many Japanese are leaving. Immigration is unlikely to provide anything other than a soft landing. 35

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