The Great Recession and Youth Unemployment . Evidence from the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Great Recession and Youth Unemployment . Evidence from the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 13, 2023 193 likes •359 views

The Great Recession and Youth Unemployment . Evidence from the United States Sylvia A. Allegretto, PhD Economist, Institute for Research on Labor and Employment University of California, Berkeley USA Background: the Great Recession Young

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The Great Recession and Youth Unemployment . Evidence from the United States

Sylvia A. Allegretto, PhD

Economist, Institute for Research on Labor and Employment University of California, Berkeley USA

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Further discussion Implications Trends and data Young workers in context Background: the Great Recession

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

  • 4
  • 2

+2 +4 +6 +8 +10 +12 +14 +16 +18 +20 +22 +24 +26

2007 youth unemployment OECD nations Percentage-point change :2007 to 2010

Spain Greece Estonia Germany United States Italy Poland Switzerland

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10.8% 7.8% 6.2% 10.0% 26.0% 23.1% 23.6% 45.4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Recessions Unemployment Rate LTU Share

Source: Current Population Survey

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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Share of LT unemployment Months since business cycle peak 1969 (11 Months) 1973 (16 months) 1981 (16 months) 1990 (8 months) 2001 (8 months) 2007 (18 months)

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0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 16-24 25+

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0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70

Ages 16-19 Ages 25+

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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Recession White male White female Black male Black female Hispanic male Hispanic female

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20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90%

Recession White male White female Black male Black female Hispanic male Hispanic female

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.22 .39 .25 .14 .26 .18 .29 .29 .32 .22 .23 .22 .21 .15 .20 .22 .18 .20 0.15 0.10 0.13 0.23 0.19 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.10 0.20 0.14 0.18 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ฀ LF ฀ U ฀ LTU ฀ LF ฀ U ฀ LTU ฀ 1983 ฀ 2010 55-up 45-54 35-44 25-34 16-24

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Source: Hoynes, Miller & Schaller, JEP Summer 2012

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Source: Hoynes, Miller & Schaller, JEP Summer 2012

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  • 10%
  • 8%
  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2%

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 1 9 8 1

Source: Sylvia Allegretto’s analysis of Current Employment Statistics data. Data as of July 2012.

US today

  • 3 .4 %
  • 4 .7 m illion

The Great Recession

CA today!

  • 5 .6 %
  • 8 4 4 ,0 0 0
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  • US debate about the direction the country will go moving

forward.

  • Bailout of the banks with no stipulations. Then no money to

help regular people, housing crisis, jobs crisis.

  • Must put people back to work—then worry about debt &

deficits—which would correct if GDP growth is strong & sustained.

  • Youth are suffering from lack of opportunities and raising

costs of higher education. Lower life time earnings profile.

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The Great Recession and Youth Unemployment . Evidence from the United States

Sylvia A. Allegretto, PhD

Economist, Institute for Research on Labor and Employment University of California, Berkeley USA

Molte Grazie!