The Future of Work in the Caribbean What do we know? What do we - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Future of Work in the Caribbean What do we know? What do we - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Future of Work in the Caribbean What do we know? What do we need to know? Godfrey St. Bernard Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Email: godfrey.stbernard@sta.uwi.edu

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The Future of Work in the Caribbean

What do we know? What do we need to know?

Godfrey St. Bernard

Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies The University of the West Indies

  • St. Augustine

Email: godfrey.stbernard@sta.uwi.edu

ILO-SALISES Research Consultation

Room 2, Institute of Critical Thinking The University of the West Indies

  • St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad and Tobago

Monday 4th December, 2017

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0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00

1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015

Barbados Jamaica Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Belize Guyana

Total Fertility Rates in Selected Countries, 1950-2015

  • St. Bernard, 2015
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5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Barbados Jamaica Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Belize Guyana

Median Age of Population in Selected Countries, 1950-2015

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Census Population by Census Years Selected Caribbean Countries

Barbados Belize Guyana Jamaica Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago 1943 1,237,063 1946 192,800 59,220 375,701 70,113 563,222 1960 232,327 90,505 560,330 1,609,814 86,108 834,350 1970 236,891 119,934 701,718 1,848,512 100,583 945,210 1980 247,129 145,353 759,567 115,252 1,079,791 1981 1982 2,190,357 1990 260,491 1,213,733 1991 192,877 723,673 2,380,666 135,685 2000 268,792 248,916 1,262,366 2001 2,607,632 2002 751,223 2010 324,528 2011 2,697,983 1,328,019 2012 747,884

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500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000

1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Barbados Jamaica Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Belize Guyana

Population Sizes in Selected Caribbean Societies, 1950-2015

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Projected Population Sizes by Variant and Country, 2015-2050

Country Variant 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Barbados Medium 284 288 290 290 290 288 285 282 Low 284 285 284 280 275 269 261 253 Jamaica Medium 2,793 2,840 2,867 2,867 2,846 2,811 2,765 2,710 Low 2,793 2,811 2,793 2,742 2,675 2,591 2,491 2,376 Saint Lucia Medium 185 192 197 202 205 207 208 207 Low 185 190 193 194 193 191 188 184 Trinidad and Tobago Medium 1,360 1,378 1,380 1,373 1,359 1,341 1,319 1,219 Low 1,360 1,365 1,349 1,320 1,284 1,244 1,198 1,145 Belize Medium 359 398 436 472 505 535 563 588 Low 359 394 424 450 473 493 508 519 Guyana Medium 767 787 807 821 826 824 816 806 Low 767 779 787 785 775 756 730 700

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0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 200.00

Barbados Jamaica Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Belize Guyana

Probability of Dying Before the Age of 50 years Having Survived to the Age of 15 years in Selected Countries, 1950- 2015

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  • 40.00
  • 30.00
  • 20.00
  • 10.00

0.00 10.00 20.00

Barbados Jamaica Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Belize Guyana

Net Migration Rates in Selected Countries, 1950- 2015

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500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

15-24 25-64 65+ Jamaica

Past and Projected Trends in Population Sizes

Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago 1950-2050

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

15-24 25-64 65+ Trinidad and Tobago

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

15-24 25-64 65+ Barbados

Past and Projected Trends in Population Sizes

Barbados and Saint Lucia 1950-2050

50 100 150 200 250 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

15-24 25-64 65+ Saint Lucia

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Past and Projected Trends in Population Sizes

Guyana and Belize 1950-2050

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

15-24 25-64 65+ Belize

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

15-24 25-64 65+ Guyana

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50 100 150 2015 2020 2030 2040

Barbados

20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 50 100 150 2015 2020 2030 2040

Belize

20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 50 100 150 2015 2020 2030 2040

Guyana

20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 50 100 150 2015 2020 2030 2040

Jamaica

20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 50 100 150 2015 2020 2030 2040

Saint Lucia

20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 50 100 150 2015 2020 2030 2040

Trinidad and Tobago

20s 30s 40s 50s 60s

Working Age Populations Future Dynamics

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Unemployment Rates 2015

National Unemployment Rate Youth Unemployment Rate Barbados 11.3 44.2 Belize 10.1 18.9 Jamaica 13.5 32.9 Trinidad and Tobago 3.4 8.4

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Population Dynamics, Institutional Arrangements and Emergent Labour Market Challenges

Persistent fertility decline and its impact

  • n education outcomes and by extension,

human capabilities More sophisticated technology, changing modes of production and their impact on the demand and supply of skilled labour Public sector reform and its impact on public sector employment and the delivery of public goods and services Threats to increasing public revenue, sustaining surplus budgets, and expanding foreign revenue bases

Cultural Antecedents Public Sector Management International And Global Economics Global Technology

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Cultural Antecedents

  • Persistent fertility decline and its impact on

education

  • utcomes

and by extension, human capabilities

  • Women in lower socio-economic status groups

have inordinately higher levels of fertility

  • Greater proportion of declining annual number of

births consisting of children from lower socio- economic status groups

  • Challenges for the education system
  • Labeling in the labour market
  • Prospective engagement in menial jobs that are
  • ften exploitive
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Global Technology

  • More

sophisticated technology, changing modes of production and their impact on the demand and supply of skilled labour

– Technological revolutions and innovations are externally driven – Caribbean countries as consumers of technology – How are the international drivers of technology preparing their workforce in accordance with changing technology? – Have to change the bias that favours professional pursuits over high skilled trades which are now much more sophisticated with the advancement

  • f technology
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Public Sector Management

  • Public sector reform and its impact on public

sector employment and the delivery of public goods and services

– Promotion of higher levels of efficiency

  • Reductions in the size of the public sector and emphasis on

contract labour

  • Hence, the need for greater private sector investment and

a strong entrepreneurial thrust catering among young persons

– Legislative frameworks to protect the engagement of young persons in specific industries, perhaps in accordance with co-operative ventures

  • Industries such as facilitating the entertainment sector,

creative sector, film

  • In almost every industry, there is an aging population due

to increasing median age with the passage of time

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International and Domestic Economics

  • Threats to increasing public revenue,

sustaining surplus budgets, and expanding foreign revenue bases

– Prospective decline in working age populations – Globalization and its impact on enhanced tastes among Caribbean populations for foreign goods and services – Increased influx of immigrants from some of the world’s more populous countries – China, India, Latin America, the Middle-East

  • Largely merchant class with entrepreneurial instincts
  • Exploitive arrangement with emergent marginalized

domestic workforce in the absence of appropriate interventions

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Prospective Research Agendas

  • Stage-specific

pedagogy in education systems, learning and entrepreneurial orientations

  • Levels of unemployment and under-employment

among young people in the Caribbean

  • Social inequality, educational achievement and

labour market experiences

  • Tracking the acquisition and development of multi-

lingual skills in Caribbean societies

– Spanish, Mandarin, Cantonese, Hindi, Urdu, German, French – Increasing stock of immigrants with acceptable levels of english language competencies – Access to trading opportunities – Role of the education system

  • Labour market information systems in the context
  • f Big Data.
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Thanks for Your Attention