The Future of work and demographic patterns in the Caribbean Lydia - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Future of work and demographic patterns in the Caribbean Lydia Rosa Gény Associate Social Affairs Officer ECLAC Subregional headquarters for the Caribbean ILO-Salises Research Consultation 4 December 2017 Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

Introduction • Population ageing in the Caribbean • Major aspects and trends in migration in the Caribbean • The impact of demography and policy on current and future levels of public expenditure • Some considerations for the future of work

The Caribbean population by age (millions) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100 0-14 15-59 60+ Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 3

Caribbean population by age and sex, selected years 1990-2060 (thousands) Male 1990 Female 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450 Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 4 2016

Caribbean population by age and sex, selected years 1990-2060 (thousands) Male 2010 Female 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450 Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 5

Caribbean population by age and sex, selected years 1990-2060 (thousands) Male 2030 Female 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450 Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 6

Caribbean population by age and sex, selected years 1990-2060 (thousands) Male 2040 Female 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450 Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 7

Caribbean population by age and sex, selected years 1990-2060 (thousands) Male 2050 Female 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450 Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 8

The Caribbean population 2015 and 2035 (thousands) Male Female 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 2015 2035 Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 9

Older persons in the Caribbean by sex and age, 2000-2050 (Thousands) B. Females A. Males 1 400 1 400 1 200 1 200 1 000 1 000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 60-69 70-79 80-89 90+ 60-69 70-79 80-89 90+ Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 10

Child, Old Age And Total Dependency Rates For The Caribbean (Number of persons per hundred people aged 15-64 years) 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 0-14 65 and over Total Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 11

Old age dependency rates by region (65+/15-64) 50 Europe North America 40 The Caribbean 30 Latin America 20 Africa 10 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 12

Old age dependency ratio by country, 2015, 2030 and 2045 (65+/(15-64)) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Belize Guyana Suri- Antigua Saint Grenada Baha- The Saint Trinidad Jamaica Aruba Barbados Curaçao Guade- The Marti- name and Vincent mas Caribbean Lucia and loupe United nique Barbuda and the Tobago States Grenadines Virgin Islands 2015 2030 2045 Source: F.Jones, V. Nam, the implications of population ageing for social expenditure in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017 13

Immigrants and emigrants: population and relative weight, by country and territory, 2015 (Number of persons and percentages) Source : William Mejía , Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017, on the basis of United Nations, Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015), New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015 [online] http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml

Immigrants and emigrants: population and relative weight, by country and territory, 2015 (Number of persons and percentages) Source : William Mejía, Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017, on the basis of United Nations, Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015. Revision (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015), New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015 [online] http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml

Immigrants and emigrants: population and relative weight, by country and territory, 2015 (Number of persons and percentages) Source: William Mejía, Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean , ECLAC, 2017, on the basis of United Nations, Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015), New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015 [online] http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml

Destination of Emigrants Millions/Population US 2% 3% 9% Canada Inhabitants Spain, France, the 9% Netherlands, UK Other European countries 5% Emigrants Caribbean 72% Continental Caribbean Immigrants Other 0 10 20 30 40 50 Haiti Country of origin of immigrants Dominican Republic Other Caribbean 3% 6% 11% countries 28% US 4% 8% France 6% Spain, the Netherlands, 18% 16% UK Guyana, Colombia and Venezuela Other LA and Central American countries Others

Caribbean, total immigrants by sex and age group, 2015 Source: William Mejía, Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean , ECLAC, 2017, based on UNDESA data, 2015

Source: Prepared by William Mejía, on basis of OECD.Stat, “Health Workforce Migration” [online] https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=HEALTH_WFMI.

The Impact of Demography and Policy on Current and Future Levels of Public Expenditure on Education, Pensions and Healthcare

Education Aggregate spending: Spending (Per cent of GDP) Antigua and Barbuda 2.6 Bahamas 2.3 Barbados 5.9 Belize 6.6 Grenada 4.0 Guyana 3.7 Jamaica 6.3 Saint Lucia 3.6 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 5.1 Trinidad and Tobago 2.9 Caribbean (10) average 4.3 OECD (29) average 5.3 Denmark 7.5 Australia 4.3 Italy 4.2

Aggregate Pension spending: Spending (Per cent of GDP) Antigua and Barbuda 4.5 Bahamas 2.3 Barbados 7.2 Belize 2.6 Grenada 3.3 Guyana 4.0 Jamaica 2.4 St Lucia 2.8 Trinidad and Tobago 4.7 Caribbean 9 Average 3.5 OECD 34 Average 7.7 Italy 15.3 France 13.3 Austria 13.2 Korea 2.0 Mexico 1.8 Iceland 1.6

Aggregate Health spending: Spending on health (Per cent of GDP) Antigua and Barbuda 4.3 Bahamas 3.5 Barbados 4.3 Belize 3.9 Grenada 2.7 Guyana 4.4 Jamaica 3.0 Saint Lucia 4.2 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 3.9 Trinidad and Tobago 2.9 Caribbean 10 Average 3.7 OECD 34 Average 6.7 Sweden 9.9 Denmark 9.3 New Zealand 9.3 Netherlands 9.1 Korea 3.9 Mexico 3.1

Projected expenditure on education, pensions, and health care (average of 9 countries), 2010-2050 (Ageing only; % of GDP) 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Education Pensions Health Source: F.Jones, V. Nam, the implications of population ageing for social expenditure in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017

Some Considerations • Legal, policy, and institutional frameworks -12 Caribbean States and territories have implemented laws, policies, or strategies on ageing -13 Carribean countries in the region do not have a proper framework that effectively addresses the situation of older persons at the national level, including access to decent work, care, among others