The Future of work and demographic patterns in the Caribbean Lydia - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Lydia Rosa Gény Associate Social Affairs Officer ECLAC Subregional headquarters for the Caribbean

ILO-Salises Research Consultation 4 December 2017 Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

The Future of work and demographic patterns in the Caribbean

Introduction

• Population ageing in the Caribbean
• Major aspects and trends in migration in the Caribbean
• The impact of demography and policy on current and

future levels of public expenditure

• Some considerations for the future of work

3

The Caribbean population by age (millions)

1 2 3 4 5 6 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100 0-14 15-59 60+

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 4

Caribbean population by age and sex, selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)

450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+

Male 1990 Female

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 5

Caribbean population by age and sex, selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)

450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+

Male 2010 Female

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 6

Caribbean population by age and sex, selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)

450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+

Male 2030 Female

7

Caribbean population by age and sex, selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)

450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+

Male 2040 Female

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016

8

Caribbean population by age and sex, selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)

450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+

Male 2050 Female

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016

9

The Caribbean population 2015 and 2035 (thousands)

500 400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400 500 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+

Male Female

2015 2035

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016

10

Older persons in the Caribbean by sex and age, 2000-2050 (Thousands)

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

• A. Males

60-69 70-79 80-89 90+ 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

• B. Females

60-69 70-79 80-89 90+

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016

11

Child, Old Age And Total Dependency Rates For The Caribbean

(Number of persons per hundred people aged 15-64 years)

20 40 60 80 100 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 0-14 65 and over Total

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016

12

Old age dependency rates by region (65+/15-64)

10 20 30 40 50 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Latin America North America The Caribbean Europe Africa

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016

13

Old age dependency ratio by country, 2015, 2030 and 2045 (65+/(15-64))

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Belize Guyana Suri- name Antigua and Barbuda Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Grenada Baha- mas The Caribbean Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Jamaica Aruba Barbados Curaçao Guade- loupe The United States Virgin Islands Marti- nique

2015 2030 2045

Source: F.Jones, V. Nam, the implications of population ageing for social expenditure in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017

Immigrants and emigrants: population and relative weight, by country and territory, 2015 (Number of persons and percentages)

Source: William Mejía , Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017, on the basis of United Nations, Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015), New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015 [online] http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml

Immigrants and emigrants: population and relative weight, by country and territory, 2015 (Number of persons and percentages)

Source: William Mejía, Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017, on the basis of United Nations, Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015. Revision (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015), New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015 [online] http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml

Immigrants and emigrants: population and relative weight, by country and territory, 2015 (Number of persons and percentages)

Source: William Mejía, Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean , ECLAC, 2017, on the basis of United Nations, Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015), New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015 [online] http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml

Millions/Population

10 20 30 40 50 Immigrants Emigrants Inhabitants

Destination of Emigrants

28% 6% 16% 18% 8% 4% 6% 3% 11% Haiti Dominican Republic Other Caribbean countries US France Spain, the Netherlands, UK Guyana, Colombia and Venezuela Other LA and Central American countries Others

Country of origin of immigrants

72% 5% 9% 3% 9% 2% US Canada Spain, France, the Netherlands, UK Other European countries Caribbean Continental Caribbean Other

Caribbean, total immigrants by sex and age group, 2015

Source: William Mejía, Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean , ECLAC, 2017, based on UNDESA data, 2015

Source: Prepared by William Mejía, on basis of OECD.Stat, “Health Workforce Migration” [online] https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=HEALTH_WFMI.

The Impact of Demography and Policy on Current and Future Levels of Public Expenditure on Education, Pensions and Healthcare

Education spending:

Aggregate Spending (Per cent of GDP) Antigua and Barbuda 2.6 Bahamas 2.3 Barbados 5.9 Belize 6.6 Grenada 4.0 Guyana 3.7 Jamaica 6.3 Saint Lucia 3.6 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 5.1 Trinidad and Tobago 2.9

Caribbean (10) average 4.3 OECD (29) average 5.3

Denmark 7.5 Australia 4.3 Italy 4.2

Pension spending:

Aggregate Spending (Per cent

• f GDP)

Antigua and Barbuda 4.5 Bahamas 2.3 Barbados 7.2 Belize 2.6 Grenada 3.3 Guyana 4.0 Jamaica 2.4 St Lucia 2.8 Trinidad and Tobago 4.7

Caribbean 9 Average 3.5 OECD 34 Average 7.7

Italy 15.3 France 13.3 Austria 13.2 Korea 2.0 Mexico 1.8 Iceland 1.6

Health spending:

Aggregate Spending on health (Per cent of GDP) Antigua and Barbuda 4.3 Bahamas 3.5 Barbados 4.3 Belize 3.9 Grenada 2.7 Guyana 4.4 Jamaica 3.0 Saint Lucia 4.2 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 3.9 Trinidad and Tobago 2.9

Caribbean 10 Average 3.7 OECD 34 Average 6.7

Sweden 9.9 Denmark 9.3 New Zealand 9.3 Netherlands 9.1 Korea 3.9 Mexico 3.1

Projected expenditure on education, pensions, and health care (average of 9 countries), 2010-2050 (Ageing only; % of GDP)

5 10 15 20 25 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Education Pensions Health

Source: F.Jones, V. Nam, the implications of population ageing for social expenditure in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017

Some Considerations

• Legal, policy, and institutional frameworks
• 12 Caribbean States and territories have implemented laws, policies,
• r strategies on ageing
• 13 Carribean countries in the region do not have a proper framework

that effectively addresses the situation of older persons at the national level, including access to decent work, care, among others

Some considerations (cont.)

• Data on ageing and migration
• Improve and/or strengthen the monitoring and evaluation to support

the national policies

• n

ageing/immigration/labour departments, including the implementation of a system with indicators and the collection of disaggregated data by age, sex, migratory status, disability, location and any other relevant variable, in order to have a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of existing policies on ageing and migration

Some considerations (cont.)

• Care: new jobs and services
• Foster the implementation of measures that provide home-care

services, respite care for informal caregivers and additional services to help families

• Continue promoting active and healthy ageing, and improving the

nutrition of older persons

• Develop comprehensive long-term care systems, with specialised

and sufficiently trained personnel, well versed in the human rights

• f older persons, as well as public day-care centres, with operational

rights-based guidance and standards

• Adopt measures aimed at promoting gender equality in caring and

unpaid domestic responsibilities and encourage males to consider careers in the caring professions and ensure that their profession and services are recognised.

Some considerations (cont.)

• Care (cont.)
• Adopt or reinforce monitoring and supervisory mechanisms to verify

the quality of care offered in public and private care settings, including care provided at older persons’ domiciles, with adequate and sufficient trained inspectors able to report to authorities

• Put additional efforts into extending training and coverage of geriatric

and gerontological care at the different levels of health care and across the countries. Inclusion of geriatrics and gerontology in curricula at all levels, and in nursing and caregivers training programmes

• Adopt measures that integrate palliative care into medical and

nursing curricula and improve older persons’ access to such care, including by raising awareness on its importance that allow those with terminal illnesses to avoid unnecessary suffering and die with dignity

• More research and support to older persons with chronic

degenerative diseases, Alzheimer's and other forms of dementia.

Some considerations (cont.)

• Work: rethinking the position of older persons and migrants

in the labour market

• Include age as one of the proscribed grounds for discrimination in

employment law and policies in order to promote inclusive labour markets and eliminate all barriers faced by older persons in the formal labour market

• Consider legal reforms to enable older persons to continue working

beyond the statutory retirement age if they are able and willing to do so, with the adoption

• f

flexible working hours and retirement arrangements,

• rganisation
• f

tasks and accessible working environments and other forms of income generating activities

• Promote

measures encouraging

• lder

persons’ participation in entrepreneurship and volunteer programmes, and training programmes, vocational training and job placement, including in the areas

• f computing, communication, information and technology
• To encourage international cooperation to recognize at the time of

migrant’s return, the qualification, education and skills acquired in the countries of destinations to facilitate integration into labour markets

Some considerations (cont.)

• Education: lifelong learning opportunities
• Promote access to lifelong learning through education and training

programmes, and adopt specific programmes to reduce illiteracy among

• lder persons, with particular attention to older women, and those living in

rural and remote areas, with focus on numeracy, information and, communication technology, and computing skills

• Promote the incorporation of the issue of ageing and old age in curricula

at all levels of the education systems and promote intergenerational interactions in schools

• Develop accessible and age-friendly formatted information and

educational programs, and materials that consider the needs and challenges faced by older persons, in particular those with disabilities, including in Internet and cyberspace related environments

Lydia Rosa Gény lydia.rosageny@eclac.org

Thank you!

ILO-Salises Research Consultation 4 December 2017 Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago