The Future of Voice TOTAL TELECOM Breakfast Briefing June 2013 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

HOT TELECOM The Future of Voice TOTAL TELECOM Breakfast Briefing June 2013

‘Rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated’ Mr. Voice

Net traffic add Traffic growth (billion minutes) 16% 10 1996 2001 12% 17 2012 5% 24 2018F 5% 33 Traffic: IDD + VoIP off-net

Voice traffic growth (%) vs net add (billion minutes) Traffic net add 50 25% Traffic growth 40 20% 30 15% 20 10% 10 5% 0 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net add Growth rates Poly. (Net add) Poly. (Growth rates)

THE GREAT MIGRATIONS

DEVICE MIGRATION World fixed vs mobile IDD traffic ratio Fixed to mobile 2006  In 2006, 32% of the world’s 2007 telecom subscribers were 2008 subscribed to fixed services. 2009  In 2013 this ratio is expected to 2010 have decreased to 14%. 2011 2012  In 2006, 60% of the world’s IDD 2013 traffic was generated by fixed 2014 subscribers. 2015  In 2013 this ratio is expected to 2016 have decreased to 38%. 2017 2018 IDD - Fixed IDD - Mobile

TECHNOLOGY MIGRATION World IDD vs VoIP International traffic TDM to IP 2006  In 2006, 20% of the world’s 2007 International traffic was VoIP 2008 traffic. 2009 2010  In 2013, this ratio is expected to 2011 have reached 32%. 2012 2013 2014  In 2018, we are forecasting that 2015 53% of the world’s International 2016 traffic will be VoIP traffic. 2017 2018 IDD VoIP off-net

SOCIAL MIGRATION Calling yesterday Texting today Using apps tomorrow

The UK example SOCIAL MIGRATION Voice to Data  People in the UK are now more likely to text than to make a phone call  While 58% of people communicated via texts on a daily basis in 2011, only 47% made a daily mobile call.  For the first time, there was a fall in the volume of mobile calls - by just over 1% - in 2011, while landline calls were down by 10%.  Overall time spent on the phone fell by 5% in 2011. * Data taken from Ofcom report

SOCIAL MIGRATION World sms vs OTT messages (billion) Data to OTT 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SMS messages OTT messages * Source: MobiThinking, Portio Research, World Bank

WHAT IS FORCING THE EVOLUTION? IP

THE GREAT DENIAL Is that a telecom operator I see with its head in the sand?

THE 5 STAGES OF TELECOM OPERATORS’ GRIEF “ When a person is  Denial faced with the  Anger reality of impending death or  Depression other extreme,  Bargaining awful fate, he or she will experience  Acceptance a series of emotional stages”

READY FOR THE FIGHT

WHAT IS THE OPPORTUNITY? 1,600 1,400 1,200 A great opportunity 1,000 800 600 400 200 - TOTAL IDD TOTAL VoIP off-net TOTAL VoIP on-net TOTAL IDD if VoIP did not exist

HOW ARE OPERATORS REACTING The OTT Challenge  Do nothing (wait and see)  Block OTTs  Partner with or buying OTTs  Compete with OTTs • Create an app • RCS-e / Joyn  Grow other market segments

HOW ARE OPERATORS REACTING The IP Challenge  Ride the TDM wave until the end and focus on data  Get ready for the IP convergence (adopt IPX)  Grow into other segments (data, content, media)

SERVICE EVOLUTION We're in the midst of an evolution, not a revolution

THE NEW VOICE Voice will not die but it will look different

BUSINESS  Convergence of voice and data into a single pipe, offering, bundle. MODELS W hat’s  Voice becomes one of a series of IP services. T he  Consolidation of the International F uture wholesale market could be triggered by IPX and migration to IP.  Per minute billing for voice could evolve to a capacity based billing down the line.

‘The best way to predict the future is to create it.’ Peter Drucker

CONTACT INFORMATION Isabelle Paradis, President  +1 514 270 1636  sales@hottelecoms.com  www.hottelecom.com

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