The Future of Sustainable Energy Dr Mark Diesendorf Associate - - PDF document

1

1

Climate Action Summit, Sydney, 28 April 2012

The Future of Sustainable Energy

Dr Mark Diesendorf

Associate Professor and Deputy Director Institute of Environmental Studies, UNSW m.diesendorf@unsw.edu.au www.ies.unsw.edu.au/staff/mark.html

2

Energy efficiency Wind Biomass Solar heat Solar PV & CST Hydro Geothermal heat. Possibly geothermal electricity & marine

PV solar tiles, Sydney CST with thermal storage

2

3

Sustainable Energy

= Energy Efficiency + Renewable Energy

3

How can Renewable Energy replace Fossil Fuels?

Energy end-use

Current fossil source

Comment;

Renewable energy substitute

Electricity

mostly coal 35% of Australia’s GHG emissions. Could be supplied entirely by renewables within a few decades.

Transport

mostly oil 14% of Australia’s GHG emissions. Electric vehicles for urban transport; inter-city high-speed rail; biofuels for rural vehicles & some air travel.

Heat (non-electrical)

mostly gas About 17% of Australia’s GHG emissions Low temperature heat from solar; some high temperature heat from renewable electricity; possibly biofuels.

3

UNSW Simulations of 100% Renewable Electricity

(Elliston, Diesendorf & MacGill 2011; 2012)

BZE’s Assumptions Removed in UNSW Study while maintaining reliability

 Discarded BZE’s expensive hypothetical transmission connection to WA  Reduced CST’s annual share in electricity generation from BZE’s 60% to UNSW’s 30-40% of total annual generation  Removed BZE’s back-up from transporting biomass to the outback to heat thermal storages in winter  Replaced BZE’s daily solar energy data by hourly data  UNSW economic assessment in progress

6

4

A UNSW Simulation of 100% Renewable Electricity

A Typical Week in Summer 2010 (Elliston, Diesendorf & MacGill 2012)

A UNSW Simulation of 100% Renewable Electricity

A Challenging Week in Winter 2010 (Elliston, Diesendorf & MacGill 2011; 2012)

5

UNSW Simulations of 100% Renewable Electricity: Broad Results

 Same reliability obtained as existing NEM supply system: 0.002% energy

• shortfall. No supply system is 100% reliable.

 Principal challenge is supplying demand on several winter evenings following

• vercast days when winds are sometimes low.

 Handled in baseline scenario with high gas turbine capacity  Gas turbines are commercial technology that can burn liquid or gaseous fuels, either fossil or renewable from biomass; eg Qantas flight  Base-load power plant an unnecessary and outdated concept. Important thing is to have sufficient flexible plant to balance fluctuations in wind & PV.

9

Options for Reducing Gas Turbine Capacity while Maintaining Reliability – Sensitivity Analysis

10

6

Meeting Demand with & without Base-Load Stations

Source of diagrams: David Mills

Old concept New concept:

No baseload power stations

• r biofuelled gas turbine or hydro

In Transition towards 100% RE:

Daily Demand & Supply with Partially Renewable Electricity

12

Coal (decreasing to zero) Wind + PV (increasing) CST+storage; hydro; gas turbines (gas & biofuels)

Time of day Power

Original base-load coal

7

Recommended Additional Sustainable Energy Policies

 Increase Renewable Energy Target from 20% to 40% of electricity in 2020 and 60-80% in 2030  Set targets for energy efficiency and renewable heat, as in Europe  Set feed-in tariffs to drive large-scale solar as well as small-scale  Build transmission highways/spines  Bring forward funding from Clean Energy Finance Corporation  Remove subsidies to production & use of fossil fuels  Support community renewable energy projects  Pass energy efficiency regulations and standards for ALL occupied buildings & all energy-using appliances and equipment  Implement really smart meters together with sophisticated demand management

Broader Issues of Sustainable Development

14

8

Premature & Fallacious Critiques of 100% Renewable Energy (RE) on Economic Grounds

(eg, Barry Brook; Peter Lang; Ted Trainer)

15