The Future of Food from the Sea Steve Gaines Bren School of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
the future of food from the sea
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

The Future of Food from the Sea Steve Gaines Bren School of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 10, 2023 400 likes •810 views

The Future of Food from the Sea Steve Gaines Bren School of Environmental Science & Mgmt Global Demand for Animal Protein 4 Land Area Population Size Population 2050 Per Capita Income vs % Protein from Meat Growth in Wealth Global

slide-1
SLIDE 1

The Future of Food from the Sea

Bren School of Environmental Science & Mgmt

Steve Gaines

slide-2
SLIDE 2
slide-3
SLIDE 3

Global Demand for Animal Protein

4

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Land Area

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Population Size

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Population 2050

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Per Capita Income vs % Protein from Meat

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Growth in Wealth

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Global Demand for Animal Protein

10

) Growth by 2050

How will this growth be met?

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Bad Options on Land

Biodiversity, GHG, Nutrient loading challenges

  • Tilman et al. 2011

Food production area as fraction of total cropland 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

1 B hectares Cleared for Agriculture 3 G tons CO2/yr

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Sources of Greenhouse Gases

Energy Production Livestock Transportation Fossil Fuel Retrieval Agriculture Residential Manufacturing Land Use Waste Disposal

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Cost Depends on What is Consumed

0" 50" 100" 150" 200" 250" 300"

Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Fed"Invertebrates" Unfed" Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling"

KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein#

Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood#

slide-13
SLIDE 13

The Global Warming Pie

Emissions from Everywhere

d y

39% 26% 21% 9% 5% Enteric fermentation Manure Feed Land-use change Energy and post-farm

Burps Feces Feed

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Oceans have Lower GHG Costs

0" 50" 100" 150" 200" 250" 300"

Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Fed"Invertebrates" Unfed" Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling"

KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein#

Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood#

Fisheries

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Option 1: Fix Fisheries

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Where We are Today

Costello et al. in review

% Fisheries with Good Harvest

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Alternative Futures

% Fisheries with Good Harvest

8 MMT of Filets 300 MMT more Fish $40 B more Profits

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Projections for Every Fishing Country

20 40 60 80 100 120 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

  • China

4.4 0.2

Change Annual Profit ($ Billion) Change in Biomass (MMT)

MSY (MMT, of conservation concern)

Change in Catch (MMT) 1

A 10 20 30 1 2 3 4 5

Indonesia India Japan Philippines Thailand Malaysia Viet Nam

  • S. Korea

Taiwan

Change in Annual Profit ($ Billion)

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Global Demand for Animal Protein

20

) Growth by 2050

Fix Fisheries

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Oceans have Lower GHG Costs

0" 50" 100" 150" 200" 250" 300"

Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Fed"Invertebrates" Unfed" Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling"

KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein#

Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood#

Aquaculture

Option 2

slide-21
SLIDE 21

A Thought Experiment

22

) Growth by 2050

What are the Environmental Costs?

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand

B e e f M u t t

  • n

& G

  • a

t P

  • u

l t r y P i g m e a t D a i r y F i s h A q u a c u l t u r e E g g s R i c e U n f e d A q u a c u l t u r e W h e a t B r

  • w

n K e l p S

  • y

b e a n

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Gigatons CO2 Added

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Water Used

Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand

P i g m e a t B e e f M u t t

  • n

& G

  • a

t W h e a t R i c e D a i r y P

  • u

l t r y E g g s S

  • y

b e a n F i s h A q u a c u l t u r e U n f e d A q u a c u l t u r e B r

  • w

n K e l p

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Km3 Water

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Area Used

Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand

M u t t

  • n

& G

  • a

t B e e f P i g m e a t D a i r y P

  • u

l t r y F i s h A q u a c u l t u r e E g g s R i c e W h e a t S

  • y

b e a n U n f e d A q u a c u l t u r e

2.0x10+6 4.0x10+6 6.0x10+6 8.0x10+6 1.0x10+7 1.2x10+7 1.4x10+7

Km2 Added

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Thought Experiment

Area needed by 2050

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Thought Experiment

75%

  • f

South America Area needed by 2050

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Thought Experiment

95%

  • f

NZ Area needed by 2050 75%

  • f

South America

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Thought Experiment #2

Greenhouse Warming Potential

(Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Thought Experiment #2

Greenhouse Warming Potential

(Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050

72% of China 132% of USA

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Thought Experiment #2

95% of Australia

Greenhouse Warming Potential

(Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050

72% of China 132% of USA

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Thought Experiment #3

Freshwater

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Thought Experiment #3

Freshwater

Lake Huron

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Thought Experiment #3

Freshwater

Lake Huron

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Take Away

  • SURF >>> TURF
  • Shifting Future Diets to

More Seafood

  • Behavior Change
  • Remove Constraints
  • New Policies
slide-35
SLIDE 35

Area Used

Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand

M u t t

  • n

& G

  • a

t B e e f P i g m e a t D a i r y P

  • u

l t r y F i s h A q u a c u l t u r e E g g s R i c e W h e a t S

  • y

b e a n U n f e d A q u a c u l t u r e

2.0x10+6 4.0x10+6 6.0x10+6 8.0x10+6 1.0x10+7 1.2x10+7 1.4x10+7

Km2 Added

Current Global Average Diet

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Diet Preferences Are Favorable

slide-37
SLIDE 37

Constraints on Fed Aquaculture

Feed

Limits on Fishmeal Emerging Feeds

slide-38
SLIDE 38

New Policies

Regulatory reform, Carbon Tax

slide-39
SLIDE 39