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The Failure of a Clearinghouse: Empirical Evidence Vincent Bignon - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Failure of a Clearinghouse: Empirical Evidence Vincent Bignon Guillaume Vuillemey Banque de France HEC Paris & CEPR 10 years after Lehman Paris September 2018 Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a


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SLIDE 1

The Failure of a Clearinghouse: Empirical Evidence

Vincent Bignon Guillaume Vuillemey Banque de France HEC Paris & CEPR 10 years after Lehman Paris September 2018

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 2

Motivation

Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) become widespread

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 3

Motivation

Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) become widespread CCP expected to improve financial stability

CCPs insure counterparty risk; netting benefits

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 4

Motivation

Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) become widespread CCP expected to improve financial stability

CCPs insure counterparty risk; netting benefits

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 5

Motivation

Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) become widespread CCP expected to improve financial stability

CCPs insure counterparty risk; netting benefits

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 6

Motivation

Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) become widespread CCP expected to improve financial stability

CCPs insure counterparty risk; netting benefits

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 7

Motivation

Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) become widespread CCP expected to improve financial stability

CCPs insure counterparty risk; netting benefits

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 8

Motivation

New risk: CCP default

Dramatic effects on markets and macro stability (Duffie, 2015) LCH Swapclear: 269 trillion USD outstanding Rare events: Three cases known in history, no existing study

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 9

Motivation

New risk: CCP default

Dramatic effects on markets and macro stability (Duffie, 2015) LCH Swapclear: 269 trillion USD outstanding Rare events: Three cases known in history, no existing study

This paper: First empirical evidence on CCP default

Failure of CCP in Paris Commodity Exchange in 1974 Unique descriptive evidence: novel, hand-collected, archive data CCP risk management outside and around distress

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 10

Motivation

New risk: CCP default

Dramatic effects on markets and macro stability (Duffie, 2015) LCH Swapclear: 269 trillion USD outstanding Rare events: Three cases known in history, no existing study

This paper: First empirical evidence on CCP default

Failure of CCP in Paris Commodity Exchange in 1974 Unique descriptive evidence: novel, hand-collected, archive data CCP risk management outside and around distress

Implications

CCP capital structure Resolution schemes for financial institutions

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 11

CCP capital structure

Matched book

In-the-money transactions Amounts owing to members Out-of-the-money transactions Collateral held Other assets Equity

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 12

CCP capital structure

Matched book Indifferent to settlement prices

In-the-money transactions Amounts owing to members Out-of-the-money transactions Collateral held Other assets Equity

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 13

CCP capital structure

Matched book Indifferent to settlement prices

In-the-money transactions Amounts owing to members Out-of-the-money transactions Collateral held Other assets Equity New in-the-money New out-of-the money

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 14

CCP capital structure

Matched book Indifferent to settlement prices Low equity

In-the-money transactions Amounts owing to members Out-of-the-money transactions Collateral held Other assets Equity New in-the-money New out-of-the money

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 15

Theory: When a member is in distress

Charter value effect

Protect CCP value arising from continuation Be tough with distressed members, to keep surviving members Liquidate defaulted position quickly

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 16

Theory: When a member is in distress

Charter value effect

Protect CCP value arising from continuation Be tough with distressed members, to keep surviving members Liquidate defaulted position quickly

Risk-shifting effect

Quick liquidation can impair CCP equity value which is bounded below by zero Can incentivize gambles (e.g. delay liquidation to be on reversal)

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Theory: When a member is in distress

Charter value effect

Protect CCP value arising from continuation Be tough with distressed members, to keep surviving members Liquidate defaulted position quickly

Risk-shifting effect

Quick liquidation can impair CCP equity value which is bounded below by zero Can incentivize gambles (e.g. delay liquidation to be on reversal)

Trade-off is affected by resolution schemes

Resolution/recovery schemes change payoffs to equityholders Here: asymmetric information with supervisors → Incentive to misreport to shift losses to creditors

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 18

The market

Paris Commodity Exchange

Futures on sugar, cocoa, coffee Trading through 35 registered brokers → Also clearing members Execute orders on behalf of clients, including retail investors Short positions: commodity producers; long positions: retail investors

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 19

The market

Paris Commodity Exchange

Futures on sugar, cocoa, coffee Trading through 35 registered brokers → Also clearing members Execute orders on behalf of clients, including retail investors Short positions: commodity producers; long positions: retail investors

CCP: Caisse de Liquidation des Affaires en Marchandises (CLAM)

All trades centrally cleared → CLAM takes counterparty risk Risk managed by calling initial + variation margins

Initial margins: Paid at initiation of contract Variation margins: Called daily based on price fluctuations

If default on margins: Liquidate member’s position If loss: equity absorbs; no additional waterfall

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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The 1974 sugar price boom

  • Nov. 1973 - Nov. 1974: Six fold increase in global sugar prices

1,300 to 8,100 FRF: 1 1974 FRF ≈ 0.85 2015 USD Limited free market + Embargoes + Bad crops + Fear of shortage

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 World sugar price / ton (in 2016 USD)

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 21

The 1974 sugar crisis

Boom in sugar prices: Until Nov. 21st, 1974

Increase in trading activity: From 54,000 to 1.9m tons / month [See] 96.9% of retail investors hold long positions

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 22

The 1974 sugar crisis

Boom in sugar prices: Until Nov. 21st, 1974

Increase in trading activity: From 54,000 to 1.9m tons / month [See] 96.9% of retail investors hold long positions

Fall in sugar prices: Nov. 21st to Dec. 2nd, 1974

One broker, Nataf, holds 56% of the long open position Limit down prevents execution of sell orders Nataf fails on variation margin calls CLAM waits until shortfall > initial margins to declare default

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 23

The 1974 sugar crisis

Boom in sugar prices: Until Nov. 21st, 1974

Increase in trading activity: From 54,000 to 1.9m tons / month [See] 96.9% of retail investors hold long positions

Fall in sugar prices: Nov. 21st to Dec. 2nd, 1974

One broker, Nataf, holds 56% of the long open position Limit down prevents execution of sell orders Nataf fails on variation margin calls CLAM waits until shortfall > initial margins to declare default

Closure of sugar market: Dec. 3rd, 1974 to Jan. 1976

Market closes under pressure of CLAM + registered brokers Negotiation + Judicial battle about loss allocation Resolution of the CLAM, re-open with new CCP

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Archive data

Department of Commerce + Paris Chamber of Commerce

Legal, judicial and statistical documents, notes, confidential reports → Exposures of CLAM, brokers and investors → Account and transactions by Nataf → Financial position on all of Nataf’s clients

Bank of France

Supervisory reports and notes Balance sheet data

Stock price data from Cours authentique et officiel Sugar price data from Les Echos.

Spot/future in Paris, London and New York

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Causes of CCP failure

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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First cause of failure: Pool of investors

Buyers of futures: Mostly retail investors

Policies to encourage retail participation

High turnover: Buy at high prices Massive retail investor defaults

At 6,217 FRF/ton: 49.6% of defaults

No retail trading in London and New York

Diversified and sophisticated financial institutions Same price dynamics did not trigger investor defaults

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Was risk management lenient during the boom?

Data on all changes in initial margins in 1974

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Initial margin in FRF per ton of sugar

  • Dec. 73
  • Mar. 74
  • Jun. 74
  • Sep. 74
  • Dec. 74

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 Initial margin (in FRF/ton)

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Initial margin / Nearest-term future sugar price

  • Dec. 73
  • Mar. 74
  • Jun. 74
  • Sep. 74
  • Dec. 74

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 Initial margin / Nearest-term future price

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Was risk management lenient during the boom?

Data on all changes in initial margins in 1974

Quantity of margins

Initial margins increased, scaled with level of sugar prices

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 31

Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Was risk management lenient during the boom?

Data on all changes in initial margins in 1974

Quantity of margins

Initial margins increased, scaled with level of sugar prices Volatility not significantly higher [See]

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 32

Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Was risk management lenient during the boom?

Data on all changes in initial margins in 1974

Quantity of margins

Initial margins increased, scaled with level of sugar prices Volatility not significantly higher [See] Value-at-Risk (VaR) / Initial margin decreasing [See]

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 33

Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Was risk management lenient during the boom?

Data on all changes in initial margins in 1974

Quantity of margins

Initial margins increased, scaled with level of sugar prices Volatility not significantly higher [See] Value-at-Risk (VaR) / Initial margin decreasing [See] Margins higher than in London and New York

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 34

Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Was risk management lenient during the boom?

Data on all changes in initial margins in 1974

Quantity of margins

Initial margins increased, scaled with level of sugar prices Volatility not significantly higher [See] Value-at-Risk (VaR) / Initial margin decreasing [See] Margins higher than in London and New York

Quality of margins

Margins paid in cash or with bank guarantees (letters of credit)

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Balance on CCP account = Deposited capital + External bank guarantees −Initial margins − Variation margins

  • Sep. 5
  • Sep. 23
  • Oct. 9
  • Oct. 25
  • Nov. 14
  • Dec. 2
  • 250
  • 200
  • 150
  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 Assets / Liabilities (in million FRF)

Deposited capital + bank guarantees Bank guarantees Initial margins Initial + variation margins Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Was risk management lenient during the boom?

Data on all changes in initial margins in 1974

Quantity of margins

Initial margins increased, scaled with level of sugar prices Volatility not significantly higher Value-at-Risk (VaR) / Initial margin decreasing Margins higher than in London and New York

Quality of margins

Margins paid in cash or with bank guarantees (letters of credit) Nataf’s account: Cash increases from 40.1% to 67.8% of margins

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 37

Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Was risk management lenient during the boom?

Data on all changes in initial margins in 1974

Quantity of margins

Initial margins increased, scaled with level of sugar prices Volatility not significantly higher Value-at-Risk (VaR) / Initial margin decreasing Margins higher than in London and New York

Quality of margins

Margins paid in cash or with bank guarantees (letters of credit) Nataf’s account: Cash increases from 40.1% to 67.8% of margins

Average margin levels were well-managed

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Second cause of failure: Risk management instruments

Build-up of large position (Nataf)

56% of CCP exposure on day of default CLAM did not use potential member-specific surcharges

  • Sep. 5
  • Sep. 23
  • Oct. 9
  • Oct. 25
  • Nov. 14
  • Dec. 2

0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 Nataf open exposure / CCP exposure

Theory: Rationales for penalizing large exposures

10% initial margins sufficient if liquidation at limit down But: Limit down are not market clearing prices Liquidating (large) exposures subject to frictions

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Third cause of failure: Risk-shifting

  • Nov. 21st, 1974: Sugar prices collapse → Severe distortions

Nataf’s balance turns negative

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Third cause of failure: Risk-shifting

  • Nov. 21st, 1974: Sugar prices collapse → Severe distortions

Nataf’s balance turns negative

CLAM delays declaration of Nataf’s default

First days: Unclear whether shortfall due to operational delays

Supervisor: “Nataf paid margins as no other broker before him did, covering not only variation margins with cash, but also a large part of initial margins and, for certain days, all initial margins or more”

Later: Clear that shortfall due to unusual price movements → Liquidation of defaulted position also delayed

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 41

Third cause of failure: Risk-shifting

  • Nov. 21st, 1974: Sugar prices collapse → Severe distortions

Nataf’s balance turns negative

CLAM delays declaration of Nataf’s default

First days: Unclear whether shortfall due to operational delays

Supervisor: “Nataf paid margins as no other broker before him did, covering not only variation margins with cash, but also a large part of initial margins and, for certain days, all initial margins or more”

Later: Clear that shortfall due to unusual price movements → Liquidation of defaulted position also delayed

CLAM continues to register trades by Nataf

In contradiction with CLAM rule book

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 42

Third cause of failure: Risk-shifting

  • Nov. 21st, 1974: Sugar prices collapse → Severe distortions

Nataf’s balance turns negative

CLAM delays declaration of Nataf’s default

First days: Unclear whether shortfall due to operational delays

Supervisor: “Nataf paid margins as no other broker before him did, covering not only variation margins with cash, but also a large part of initial margins and, for certain days, all initial margins or more”

Later: Clear that shortfall due to unusual price movements → Liquidation of defaulted position also delayed

CLAM continues to register trades by Nataf

In contradiction with CLAM rule book

→ CLAM is acting to protect Nataf

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 43

Third cause of failure: Risk-shifting

Distortions are evidence of risk-shifting

All losses absorbed by equity: No additional waterfall resources If CCP is strict: Equity takes losses, bounded below by zero If CCP is lenient: No equity losses if price reversal

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 44

Third cause of failure: Risk-shifting

Distortions are evidence of risk-shifting

All losses absorbed by equity: No additional waterfall resources If CCP is strict: Equity takes losses, bounded below by zero If CCP is lenient: No equity losses if price reversal

Delaying the liquidation is a bet on a price reversal

If reversal: No default by Nataf, no equity losses If not: Equity takes losses, bounded below by zero

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 45

Third cause of failure: Risk-shifting

Distortions are evidence of risk-shifting

All losses absorbed by equity: No additional waterfall resources If CCP is strict: Equity takes losses, bounded below by zero If CCP is lenient: No equity losses if price reversal

Delaying the liquidation is a bet on a price reversal

If reversal: No default by Nataf, no equity losses If not: Equity takes losses, bounded below by zero

Counterfactual: Early liquidation could have avoided default

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 46

CCP resolution

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Misreporting to regulator

Theory

If supervisor has discretion to implement debt write-downs Asymmetric information between failed entity and supervisor Incentives to misreport to supervisor exist Equityholders try to shift losses to creditors

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 48

Misreporting to regulator

Theory

If supervisor has discretion to implement debt write-downs Asymmetric information between failed entity and supervisor Incentives to misreport to supervisor exist Equityholders try to shift losses to creditors

CLAM asks minister to close the market (Dec. 3rd)

Article 22 sets a settlement price if closure Settlement at the average price over past 20 trading days Here: 7,400 FRF per ton, above price on Dec. 2nd, 6,200 FRF Closure highly debatable → Risky bet

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Risk-shifting: Failed renegotiation plans

Theory

When default is costly, value-increasing renegotiations exist Coase’s theorem: Default can be negotiated away (if no frictions)

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 50

Risk-shifting: Failed renegotiation plans

Theory

When default is costly, value-increasing renegotiations exist Coase’s theorem: Default can be negotiated away (if no frictions)

CLAM refuses renegotiation with sugar professionals

Refuses proposal to buy Nataf’s position at 6,200 FRF Refuses proposal at 5,700 FRF (Varsano proposal)

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 51

Risk-shifting: Failed renegotiation plans

Theory

When default is costly, value-increasing renegotiations exist Coase’s theorem: Default can be negotiated away (if no frictions)

CLAM refuses renegotiation with sugar professionals

Refuses proposal to buy Nataf’s position at 6,200 FRF Refuses proposal at 5,700 FRF (Varsano proposal)

CLAM close to region where equity value function is convex

Bet that Article 22 will be upheld in court

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 52

Third cause of failure: Risk-shifting

5600 5800 6000 6200 6400 6600 6800 7000 7200 7400 Settlement price (FRF / ton)

  • 60
  • 50
  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 CLAM equity value (in million FRF) Varsano proposal Price Dec. 2 Price Art. 22 Nataf defaults

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 53

Resolution

Failure to negotiate recovery → Administered resolution

High sensitivity of equity value to settlement price Administrator appointed after market closure market is deemed illegal

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 54

Resolution

Failure to negotiate recovery → Administered resolution

High sensitivity of equity value to settlement price Administrator appointed after market closure market is deemed illegal

Resolution resembles variation margin gains haircutting

Reduce of cancel variation margin payments to parties making gains Positions of sugar sellers settled at 6,017 FRF

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 55

Resolution

Failure to negotiate recovery → Administered resolution

High sensitivity of equity value to settlement price Administrator appointed after market closure market is deemed illegal

Resolution resembles variation margin gains haircutting

Reduce of cancel variation margin payments to parties making gains Positions of sugar sellers settled at 6,017 FRF

Sugar professionals contribute on top of margin haircuts

15 million FRF to finance the agreement

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 56

Resolution

Failure to negotiate recovery → Administered resolution

High sensitivity of equity value to settlement price Administrator appointed after market closure market is deemed illegal

Resolution resembles variation margin gains haircutting

Reduce of cancel variation margin payments to parties making gains Positions of sugar sellers settled at 6,017 FRF

Sugar professionals contribute on top of margin haircuts

15 million FRF to finance the agreement

All assets of the CLAM liquidated

Large shareholders sell for 1 FRF per share Retail shareholders sell for 100 FRF per share No direct government contribution (but public ownership of banks)

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 57

Conclusion and policy implications

Three causes of the CLAM’s failure

Weak pool of ultimate investors Large member position Risk-shifting incentives

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 58

Conclusion and policy implications

Three causes of the CLAM’s failure

Weak pool of ultimate investors Large member position Risk-shifting incentives

Better CCP capitalization can reduce risk-shifting

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 59

Conclusion and policy implications

Three causes of the CLAM’s failure

Weak pool of ultimate investors Large member position Risk-shifting incentives

Better CCP capitalization can reduce risk-shifting Better CCP governance can reduce risk-shifting

More power to members that attach greater value to continuation Member-owned CCPs likely to prefer continuation Rules versus discretion: less likely to delay default

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 60

Conclusion and policy implications

Three causes of the CLAM’s failure

Weak pool of ultimate investors Large member position Risk-shifting incentives

Better CCP capitalization can reduce risk-shifting Better CCP governance can reduce risk-shifting

More power to members that attach greater value to continuation Member-owned CCPs likely to prefer continuation Rules versus discretion: less likely to delay default

Consider bad incentives created by resolution authorities

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 61

Policy implications: Default waterfalls

Default waterfall

Tranches of equity Members junior to residual equity (CoCo-like)

Equity Out-of-the-money transactions In-the-money transactions Other assets

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 62

Policy implications: Default waterfalls

Default waterfall

Tranches of equity Members junior to residual equity (CoCo-like)

Mitigate risk-shifting

Equity not only residual claimant

Equity Out-of-the-money transactions In-the-money transactions Other assets

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 63

Policy implications: Default waterfalls

Default waterfall

Tranches of equity Members junior to residual equity (CoCo-like)

Mitigate risk-shifting

Equity not only residual claimant

Equity Out-of-the-money transactions In-the-money transactions Other assets

Increase renegotiation set

Lower sensitivity of equity to settlement prices

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 64

Policy implications: Default waterfalls

Default waterfall

Tranches of equity Members junior to residual equity (CoCo-like)

Mitigate risk-shifting

Equity not only residual claimant

Equity Out-of-the-money transactions In-the-money transactions Other assets

Increase renegotiation set

Lower sensitivity of equity to settlement prices

Trade-off with skin-in-the-game

Optimal design is open question

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 65

For more entertainment

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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Appendix

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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New transactions registered — Sugar

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 New transactions registered (x 1000 tons)

[Back]

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 68

New transactions registered — Coffee and cocoa

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 50 100 150 200 New transactions registered - Cocoa (x 1000 tons) 10 20 30 New transactions registered - Coffee (x 1000 tons)

Cocoa Coffee Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 69

CLAM stock price — 1966-1975

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 50 100 150 200 250 300 Stock price of CLAM (in FRF)

[Back]

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 70

CLAM stock price around failure

  • Dec. 73
  • Mar. 74

Jun.74

  • Sep. 74

Dec.74

  • Mar. 75

50 100 150 200 250 300 Stock price of CLAM (in FRF)

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 71

Daily returns on nearest-term contract

Volatility of sugar prices not markedly higher

  • Dec. 73
  • Jun. 74
  • Dec. 74
  • 0.2
  • 0.15
  • 0.1
  • 0.05

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 Daily returns on nearest-term sugar future

[Back]

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

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SLIDE 72

Valut-at-Risk (VaR)

98% VaR / Initial margin requirement is decreasing

  • Dec. 73
  • Jun. 74
  • Dec. 74

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 98% Value-at-Risk / Initial margin requirement

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Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

slide-73
SLIDE 73

Open position

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 500 1000 Open position (in million FRF) 200 400 600 800 Open position (x 1000 tons)

In million FRF In 1000 tons Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence

slide-74
SLIDE 74

Open position / Market capitalization

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Open position / CLAM market capitalisation

Vincent Bignon, Guillaume Vuillemey The Failure of a Clearinghouse:Empirical Evidence