The Dynamics of Waste Prevention: Building Evidence to Support - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Dynamics of Waste Prevention: Building Evidence to Support Policy Making in Defra

Maria Angulo (Defra) Rachel Freeman (Sustain & University of Bristol)

System Dynamics Conference, London 7th February 2013

The dynamics of Waste Prevention:

• utline of the presentation

1. Introduction: the team, the project 2. Policy context 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion

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The dynamics of Waste Prevention

1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion

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Project Description

• Research project funded by specialist R&D budget (Strategic Evidence

Partnership Fund) to build Defra’s modelling and systems thinking capabilities to support policy making

• Two subprojects: waste prevention and packaging recycling
• Experimenting with systems thinking and system dynamics to support policy

development and evaluation

• More proactive and interactive approach to evidence gathering with policy

makers

• Reach consensus/common understanding about key drivers, interactions,

dynamics

• Develop policy scenarios using evidence provided by the model (initially

qualitatively and quantitatively in the longer-term)

• Ultimate objective is better, more robust policies (avoid unintended

consequences, successful within wide range of uncertainty)

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The Team

• Maria Angulo – Operational Researcher, Defra
• Rachel Freeman – Research Engineer, University of Bristol (EngD), on

placement at Sustain Ltd.

• Mike Yearworth – Reader in Systems, University of Bristol
• Lee Jones, Andy Hill – Trainers and Modellers, Ventana Systems
• Tom Quested – Analyst, WRAP (Waste and Resources Action

Programme)

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The dynamics of Waste Prevention

1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion

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The dynamics of Waste Prevention: Policy Context

• First Waste Prevention Programme for England to

be published before December 2013

• Defra is lead department, currently building

evidence base

• First initiative to tackle top of waste hierarchy
• Ultimate objective is to decouple economic growth

from waste generation

• Very wide scope with many actors and complex

interactions

• Strong links with resource efficiency agenda

(material efficiency)

• Does not cover water or electricity consumption
• Does consider carbon emissions and

hazardousness

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EU Waste Hierarchy

Definition of Waste Prevention

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WP reduces the amount and toxicity of waste before recycling, composting, energy recovery and landfilling become

• ptions.

WP also includes measures to reduce the adverse impacts

• f the generated waste on the environment and human

health.

Source: EU’s Preparing a Waste Prevention Programme

Decoupling Waste and Economic Health

• Decoupling refers, broadly to the process of separating economic

growth from associated negative environmental impacts

• Whether economic growth is compatible with conserving finite

natural resources on the scale that now appears to be required has been disputed

• Evidence shows decoupling effects are extremely weak, non-

existent, short-lived or highly ambiguous; reasons why decoupling did not occur are not clear

Source: WR1204, Household Waste Prevention Evidence Review: L3 m5-1 (T) – Future waste growth, modelling & de-coupling A report for Defra’s Waste and Resources Evidence Programme

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Methods of Waste Prevention in Supply Chain

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Source: EU’s Preparing a Waste Prevention Programme

The dynamics of Waste Prevention

1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion

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Workshops

• Two group model building days with approximately 20 people - policy makers,

analysts, industry experts, people from BIS, Wrap, other stakeholder groups

• Split up into four groups
• First day: open discussion, exploring and scoping the problem, identifying

relevant system elements and system boundary (sticky notes, flipcharts), clustering, identify key variables and relationships, first CLDs

• Transfer CLDs into Vensim, print out on A0 (four models)
• Second day: discussion on purpose of the model and metrics of interest, review
• f initial CLDs (swap groups), add to CLDs, expand, enhance, revise
• Feedback from policy team very positive
• Many CLDs from workshops combined into three CLDs (repair, reuse,

remanufacture)

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Workshop Day One

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Second Workshop Day

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Model Purpose – Definition from Workshop

• The purpose of the model is to understand the dynamics of the

flow of materials in products, from cradle to discard, in the domestic sector – identifying the drivers of the metrics of waste intensity of household activities and associated carbon emissions (and hazardousness?), in England/the UK, and how they interact.

• The System of Interest lies between the producer and the point at

which products/materials enter the waste system.

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The dynamics of Waste Prevention

1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour, CLDs 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion

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Material Flows (Stock and Flow)

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Stock and Flow diagram WP

• Represents physical flows of materials and pathways through

supply chain and use

• Includes some waste management (recovery)
• System boundary around UK (although WPP is for England only)
• Data being gathered to reproduce historical behaviour (data from

ONS, Defra, HMRC, WRAP, literature reviews)

• Initial version has no dynamic behaviour (data defines behaviour)
• Plan is to gradually substitute data to create reference mode

model (this will take time!)

The Decline of Repair

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Repair

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relative attractiveness

• f repairs

relative price of repair to new unit cost of repair to repair service provider capacity of repair industry capacity growth rate of repair industry initial capacity demand for repair services gap between supply and demand for repair services visibility and convenience of repair services

• z impact of capacity on

visibility and convenience z impact of visibility

• n attractiveness

z impact of relative cost on attractiveness delay factor repair industry

• z effect of

capacity on unit cost design for repairability and upgradeability z impact of business model

• n design for repairability

<perceived people's attitude to wastefulness (social norm)> z effect of social norm

• n relative

attractiveness <annual amount of materials in products going from in-use to not-in-use> <sales price of products>

• ther factors

affecting price unit price to customer of repair Fraction actually in need of repair

Consumption Trends

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Consumption

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UK annual demand for materials in products in consumer use Change in rate of consumption replacement rate <annual amount of materials in products going from in-use to not-in-use> perceived people's attitude to wastefulness (social norm) rate of change in perception social norm time to perceive social norm

• z social norm on

consumption Relative Cost of Goods to Disposable Income <sales price of products> Population Relative Cost of Basic Services to Disposable Income Cost of Basic Services replacement Time

• Elasticity of

relative cost of goods Elasticity of relative cost of basic services effect of relative cost of goods on social norm Disposable Income

• Full Model

The dynamics of Waste Prevention

1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion

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The dynamics of Waste Prevention: Lessons learned and challenges

• Policy team found workshop discussions very illuminating – value of

process/modelling methodology

• Difficult balance between full engagement of policy team (time

constraints but also danger of confusion if model is too basic or complicated)

• Visualisation of system in Vensim very powerful as a problem

structuring and communication tool

• Vast system so where do we draw the boundaries and what level of

detail? Initially, needs to be generic rather than focus on particular materials

• “Waste prevention” is a set of practices/activities, embedded in

everyday actions, so difficult to conceptualise – in fact, not waste prevention but material utility maximisation

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The dynamics of Waste Prevention

1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion

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The dynamics of Waste Prevention: What’s next

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• Populate stock and flow with historical economic and material flow data
• Finish incorporating CLDs into the S&F (partially done) and

parameterise the model (include carbon impacts, hazardousness)

• Create several versions that focus on certain types of

products/materials (e.g. food, textiles, electronics, etc.)

• Use the model to provide evidence to support development of policy
• ptions/scenarios
• Expansion of the model to include pre-production processes such as

mining

• Expansion of the model to include other natural resources (not only

materials) such as water and electricity

• Save the world (!)

The dynamics of Waste Prevention

1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion

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The dynamics of Waste Prevention: Questions

• Balance between supporting policy making in an ideal world vs reality (impact of

providing timely evidence)

• Understanding the effects of structure on behaviour – where are they at play?
• Physical stocks and flows vs other variables. Initial workshops did not provide

enough information to build stock and flow diagram – role of analyst and modelling expertise was needed

• Is it better to develop stock and flow and causal loops before workshops or

does it narrow down discussions and the value of initial discussions?

• Ways of carrying out qualitative analysis of models to support policy

development in the absence of data

• Modelling aspects of social norms (what drives the stock and impact of this

stock/variable in other variables)

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Thanks!

Maria.Angulo@defra.gsi.gov.uk Rachel.Freeman@sustain.co.uk

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