The (Continuing) Evolution of the ERCOT System Dan Woodfin Sr. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The (Continuing) Evolution of the ERCOT System Dan Woodfin Sr. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The (Continuing) Evolution of the ERCOT System Dan Woodfin Sr. Director, System Operations, ERCOT PUBLIC The ERCOT Region The interconnected electrical system serving 90% of Texas load, with limited external connections 73,308 MW

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The (Continuing) Evolution of the ERCOT System

Dan Woodfin

  • Sr. Director, System Operations, ERCOT
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The ERCOT Region

The interconnected electrical system serving 90% of Texas load, with limited external connections

  • 73,308 MW peak demand

(July 19, 2018)

  • More than 46,500 miles

(75,000 km) of transmission lines

  • 610+ generation units

ERCOT connections to other grids are limited to ~1250 MW of direct current (DC) ties, which allow control over flow of electricity

600 MW with SPP 30 MW with Mexico at Eagle Pass 100 MW with Mexico at Laredo 300 MW with Mexico at McAllen

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220 MW with SPP

TSDOS 9/6/18

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ERCOT Inc.

  • As a part of the restructuring of the Texas electric market in 1999, ERCOT was

assigned four primary responsibilities by the Texas Legislature:

  • Maintain system reliability
  • Facilitate competitive wholesale market
  • Ensure open access to transmission
  • Facilitate competitive retail market
  • ERCOT is regulated by the Texas Public Utility Commission (PUC) with
  • versight by the Texas Legislature.

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ERCOT is not a market participant and does not own generation or transmission/distribution wires.

TSDOS 9/6/18

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Current Demand Records

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Peak Demand Record: 73,308 megawatts (MW)

  • July 19, 2018, 4-5 p.m.

Weekend Peak Demand Record: 71,445 MW

  • Sunday, July 22, 2018, 5-6 p.m.

Winter Peak Demand Record: 65,915 MW

  • Jan. 17, 2018, 7-8 a.m.

Recent Monthly Peak Demand Records 2018

  • January: 65,915 MW (Jan. 17, 7-8 a.m.)
  • May: 67,265 MW (May 29, 4-5 p.m.)
  • June: 69,102 MW (June 27, 4-5 p.m.)
  • July: 73,308 MW (July 19, 4-5 p.m.)

2017

  • April: 53,486 MW (April 28, 4-5 p.m.)
  • July: 69,512 MW (July 28, 4-5 p.m.)
  • October: 62,333 MW (Oct. 9, 4-5 p.m.)

*New records are preliminary, subject to change in final settlement

TSDOS 9/6/18

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Evolving Resource Mix

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Wind Generation Capacity – July 2018

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  • Texas continues to lead U.S. in wind capacity.
  • Not all planned projects will be built; incentives, uncertainty

and other factors affect construction decisions and schedules.

Future outcomes uncertain

Wind Generation Records (instantaneous)

  • Output: 17,541 MW

‒

  • Feb. 19, 2018, 10:05 p.m.
  • Penetration (load served): 54%

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  • Oct. 27, 2017, 4 a.m.

‒ Total Load = 28,416 MW

TSDOS 9/6/18

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20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Nuclear Coal Other Gas CC Gas Steam Gas CT/IC Wind Solar

ERCOT Installed Capacity (1999-2018)

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  • Wind and solar values are based on nameplate

capacity (not adjusted for peak capacity contribution)

  • Private Use Network capacity not included

4.8% 51.6% 0.3% 28.6% 8.4% 5.3% 1.0% 5.3% 16.9% 35.9% 12.4% 6.6% 21.0% 1.1% 0.8%

TSDOS 9/6/18

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Nuclear 5% Coal 17% Gas CC 36% Gas Steam 12% Gas CT/IC 7% Wind 21% Solar 1% Other 1% Nuclear 8% Coal 29% Gas CC 5% Gas Steam 52% Gas CT/IC 5% Wind 0% Solar 0% Other 1%

Changing Resource Capacity Mix

1999 2018

TSDOS 9/6/18 8

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Real-Time Operations and Market

  • Market participants bring generation on-line; ERCOT may start additional

generation needed to maintain reliability.

  • Market participants submit offers for generation output.
  • ERCOT clears the market every five

minutes, using the generation with the lowest bids to serve the load, subject to transmission constraints.

  • Prices received by generators

signal whether more or less

  • utput is needed from generators

in that area at that time.

  • In general, the set of generator
  • utput levels produced by this

process is the lowest cost way that doesn’t overload the transmission system to meet the system load for each five minute interval.

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$2.54 $86.4 6

Prices

TSDOS 9/6/18

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Peak Demand Day (7/19/18) – Generation by Fuel Type

TSDOS 9/6/18

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High Wind Day (2/19/18) – Generation by Fuel Type

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Evolving Transmission

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Major Transmission Additions ~2007-2018

TSDOS 9/6/18 13

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Major Future Transmission Improvements - Panhandle

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Panhandle Projects

  • Scheduled for completion in 2018
  • Addresses export capacity for

growing wind resources and weak grid conditions

Index Transmission Improvement 1 Alibates Synchronous Condenser 2 Tule Canyon Synchronous Condenser 3 Alibates-AJ Swope-Windmill Ogalalla- Tule Canyon 345 kV Circuit Addition

TSDOS 9/6/18

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Major Future Transmission Improvements - Lubbock

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Lubbock Integration

  • Portion of Lubbock Power and

Light load switching into ERCOT

  • Approximately 490 MW of

summer peak load

  • Network of primarily 115-kV lines

connected by multiple 345-kV lines

  • Scheduled for completion in 2021
  • New 345kV transmission lines

needed; will also provide new export capacity from Panhandle

TSDOS 9/6/18

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Major Future Transmission Improvements - Far West

16 Transmission Improvement Project ERCOT Endorsement Anticipated Service Dates

Line 69H Rebuild and 138-kV Conversion Project October 2016 June 2018 Permian Basin-Solstice 138-kV line rebuild October 2016 February 2019 Riverton-Sand Lake 138-kV line (new) November 2016 May 2019 Far West Texas Project 1.0 (New Odessa-Riverton and Bakersfield-Solstice 345-kV lines) June 2017 May 2020 / April 2021 Far West Dynamic Reactive Devices June 2018 May/ December 2019 Far West Texas Project 2.0 (New Riverton-Sand Lake-Solstice 345-kV line and Kyle Ranch-Riverton and Horseshoe Spring- Riverton 138-kV lines) June 2018 December 2020

TSDOS 9/6/18

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Continuing Changes

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Utility Scale Solar Generation Capacity – July 2018

18 Future outcomes uncertain TSDOS 9/6/18

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Interconnection Studies – July 2018

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Fuel Type Screening Study (MW) FIS Pending or Completed (MW) IA Executed, FIS Pending

  • r Approved

(MW) Total (MW) Gas- All Other 779 1,972 2,751 Gas- Combined Cycle 3,292 2,046 3,165 8,503 Gas- Compressed Air 324 324 Total Gas 3,292 2,825 5,461 11,578 Nuclear Coal Wind 7,624 18,046 12,027 37,697 Battery 322 200 522 Solar 8,186 19,318 2,551 30,055

TSDOS 9/6/18

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Geographic Spread of Solar Interconnection Studies

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Load Higher than Forecasted Load Lower than Forecasted Wind Higher than Forecasted Wind Lower than Forecasted

Forecasting

3HR Ahead Forecast Errors - 2017

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Evolving Ancillary Services Needs

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  • Ancillary Services are procured to ensure extra capacity is available to

address variability that cannot be covered by the five-minute energy market.

– Instantaneous Load Variation – Changes in variable generation output – Generators tripping offline – Forecast errors

  • Ancillary Services

designs and quantities continue to evolve to meet changing system needs and resource capabilities

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Addition of Flexible Gas Units

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Emerging Issues

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DER Visibility

  • DER >1 MW must register with

ERCOT

– If it injects to the grid; and – Is not registered with PUC as Self- Generation

  • Investor-owned TDSPs submit

– Annual DER interconnection reports to PUC – Regular updates to ERCOT Profile Codes

  • Munis and Co-ops (NOIEs) report:

– Aggregated data on units >50 kW that inject energy to the grid – Some anecdotal summaries to City Councils, etc.

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Based on this info, we estimate:

  • Units <1 MW

– About 30,000 units (mainly rooftop solar) – About 250 MW

  • Units >1 MW

– 140 units (~90% diesel

  • r natural gas)

– More than 850 MW

TSDOS 9/6/18

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DER Improvements for Transmission Operations

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Modeled Equipment

CB-2 CB-1 Line-2 Line-1

Load-1 Load-2

Mapped Information DG-1

  • Improved reporting
  • Mapping of Registered DERs to the

transmission grid

– Requires cooperation among TSPs, DSPs and the ISO – Underway now

  • Nodal pricing for larger DERs

– Local price signals would enhance reliability and would align DER behavior with overall market design

  • Incorporate mapped DER info into

ERCOT processes

– e.g. forecasting, powerflow studies, dynamic analyses, A/S requirements, etc.

TSDOS 9/6/18

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Storage Interconnection Requests

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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Operational Signed IA FIS Requested Initial Request

  • Preliminary Data
  • Some of these requests were previously included

within other GINRs

  • Not all planned projects will be built; incentives,

uncertainty and other factors affect construction decisions and schedules TSDOS 9/6/18

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“Weak System” Inverter Instability

  • In areas with no conventional generation, very little load
  • Electrically far from the rest of system (synchronous units),

perhaps during outage

  • Dynamics dominated by power electronics (wind plants, SVC.)
  • Disturbances occurring when the

Weighted Short Circuit Ratio (WSCR) is below 1.5 can cause control system instability for inverter-connected resources.

  • Ability to use of WSCR as

measure of the potential for this instability may not be uniform

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Increased Complexity of Required Studies

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ERCOT Communication Channels

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ERCOT website – www.ercot.com

  • Today’s Outlook and grid conditions
  • Daily and seasonal weather
  • Market information, prices and more

Social media – join us!

  • Twitter: @ERCOT_ISO
  • Facebook: Electric Reliability Council
  • f Texas
  • YouTube: ERCOTISO

ERCOT mobile app

  • Real-time updates
  • Wholesale pricing
  • Information sharing

TSDOS 9/6/18