The Challenges of Energy Security and Affordability of our Future - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv : Reader Emeritus in Environmental Engineering , Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia, Norwich

Institution of Civil Engineers Leeds: October 14th 2014 The Energy Trilema: The Challenges of Energy Security and Affordability of our Future Energy Supplies

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The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies Some of the Key issues

• What are key issues of Energy Security, particularly in the

next few years with older stations closing and UK now dependent on over 50% of its gas from imported sources and also two thirds of its coal?

• What might the future electricity generation mix look like?
• How does UK energy mix compare with that of other

countries?

• What contribution might “Fracking” provide for security for

electricity generation?

• To what extent would variable renewables such as wind

cause issues on the secure supply of electricity?

• What are the cost implications of the options available?
• What is the impact of support for renewables on the price of

electricity?

• Are the lights likely to go out over the next few years?

2 4 6 8 10 12 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 p/kWh

Wholesale Electricity Prices Weekly volume weighted average Wholesale Prices Wholesale prices are 2.5 times what they were in 2004

Wholesale Cost of Electricity

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UK no longer self sufficient in gas

UK Government Projection in 2003 for 2020

Oil reaches $130 a barrel Langeled Line to Norway Severe Cold Spells

wholesale prices updated to 16th September 2014

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100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Electricity Price Indices (2001 = 100) wholesale retail

Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices

In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied much less than wholesale prices. However in recent months retail prices have risen above long term wholesale trends.

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What are causes of price rises in recent years?

• In period 2004-13, Electricity Bills for average household

have risen from ~ £288 to around ~£577 or ~100% * How much can be attributed to support for Renewables under the Renewable obligation?

• Support for All Renewables in 2012-13 was £1.99 billion **.

However 313,569,728 MWh was supplied representing an increase of 0.69 p/kWh in retail price of electricity

• At typical domestic unit prices of 13 – 14p per kWh this

represents and increase of just 4.9%.

• Of this the impact of onshore wind on bills in 2012-13 was

0.22p per kWh or ~ 1.7%. For offshore the figures are 0.16p and 1.2% respectively.

• Wholesale prices had risen from 2p in 2004 to 4.5p per kWh

by end of 2013.

* Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website ** OFGEM Annual Report

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CO2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh)

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0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Switzerland Norway Sweden Brazil France Austria Belgium Spain Russia Qatar Italy Japan UAE UK Netherlands Germany USA Mexico Denmark Saudi Arabia Libya China Australia India Poland EU OECD Developing Oil Producing

France UK

Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh * Extracted from IEA Statistics in Jan 2014 – data relate to 2010

World Average 0.550

Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries 2010

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Japan UK USA France Germany Russia Saudi Arabia Brazil China India Norway Poland Sweden Switzerland

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro/ Tidal/Wave Other Renewables Biofuels/Waste UK-2013

Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.

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Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.

Fuel Approximate emission factor per kWh Comments Coal ~900 – 1000g Depending on grade and efficiency of power station Oil ~800-900 Depending on grade and efficiency of power station Gas (Steam) ~600g Conventional Steam Station Gas (CCGT) ~400g Most modern stations may be as low as 380g Nuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor type Renewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro

• Transmission/Distribution losses UK ~ 8%: India ~ 24%

* DECC Guidance for reporting July 2014

Overall UK including transmission ~541g* Varies on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix

20 40 60 80 100 120

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Billion Cubic Metres

Actual UK production Actual UK demand Projected production Projected demand Actual Production Actual Demand

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Import Gap

Impact of temporary switch to coal generation Gas supply has become critical at times – e.g. at end of March 2013 – down to 6 hours supply following technical problems on Norwegian Pipeline.

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 2011 (*) Dec 2013 (*) Gas CCGT 0 - 70% (at present 25- 35%) Available now (but gas is running out) 8.0p [5 - 11]/kWh 8.5p/kWh

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Installed Capacity (MW)

New Build ?

Projected Actual

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 2011 (*) Dec 2013 (*) Gas CCGT 0 - 70% (at present 25- 35%) Available now (but gas is running out) 8.0p [5 - 11] 8.5p/kWh nuclear fission 5 - 10% (France 75 - 80%) - (currently 18- 20% and falling) Long construction times (capital cost for Hinkley increased from £16 billion to £24.5 billion 7.75p [5.5 - 10] /kWh 9.25p (Hinkley)/ kWh

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 2011 (*) Dec 2013 (*) Gas CCGT 0 - 70% (at present 25- 35%) Available now (but gas is running out) 8.0p [5 - 11] 8.5p/kWh nuclear fission 5 - 10% (France 75 - 80%) - (currently 18- 20% and falling) Long construction times (capital cost for Hinkley increased from £16 billion to £24.5 billion 7.75p [5.5 - 10] /kWh 9.25p (Hinkley)/ kWh nuclear fusion unavailable not available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for significant impact

"Clean Coal" Coal currently ~40% but scheduled to fall Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration

[7.5 – 15p]

• unlikely

before 2025

9.5 – 13.4p/ kWh

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes – operating for 12 years On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year

On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p / kWh

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change

Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% some technical development needed to reduce costs. 12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p/ kWh On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p/ kWh

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Micro Hydro Scheme operating

• n Siphon Principle installed at

Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW

Hydro (inc. mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 11p for <2MW projects Not Costed

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Photovoltaic <5% even assuming 10 GW of installation

available, and costs are coming down – but low load factors

25p +/-8 13-15p (2012 projection) 12.3p/ kWh

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p Climate Change Report 2011 suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) in 2020 - ~ 2.0 GW. But 2.1 GW already installed (Oct. 2014)

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas ??5% but could be larger with significant imports available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced

• gasification. Questions over

sustainability

9 - 13p depending on technology Not Costed Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Not Costed

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p Open Hydro commissioned off Eday – Sept 2007 Alstom Device seen at Hatston April 2013 Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Not Costed

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Not Costed

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Tidal Barrages / Lagoons 5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for 2020. ?? Swansea Bay Lagoon 26p +/-5 Not Costed

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009 Severn Barrage could provide 5-8%

• f UK electricity needs

In Orkney – Churchill Barriers Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in

• Orkney. Controversy in bringing

cables south. Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2

The Royal Oak was sunk 75 years ago this evening (14th October) with the loss of 800 lives.

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity Tidal Barrages / Lagoons 5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for 2020 26p +/-5 Not Costed Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 11p for <2MW projects Not Costed Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% development needed to reduce costs. 12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p/ kWh On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p/ kWh Photovoltaic

<<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation further research needed to bring down costs significantly

25p +/-8 (13-15p) 12.3p /kWh

BIOMASS ??5% Questions over sustainability

9 – 13p Not Costed Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Not Costed

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Offshore Wind much more expensive. Solar PV is now mature but also more expensive than on shore wind. Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as demonstration projects. [technically immature ] If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal?

• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop significant carbon sequestration within

10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee [9th May 2011] If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES By 2020

• the UK will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity The majority of which will be imported at volatile prices from countries such as Norway, Russia, Middle East Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS

• ption route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

50 100 150 200 250 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 GWh/ Year Years of Operation Haynesville Eagle Ford Woodford Marcellus Fayetteville

Impact of Fracking on Electricity Supply to 2030

Output declines by 95% over first 3-4 years Total output from Fracking Well over 20 years is equivalent to two 3 MW wind turbines

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 bcm

DECC EIA Cuadrilla

Based on Figure 3.1 in Tyndall (2011b) Report

The most optimistic scenario data from above are used Electricity Scenario assumes

• similar split of gas use for electricity / non-electricity demand
• 5% improvement in efficiency for CCGT generation plant
• Maximum generation from Fracked gas = ~36.5 TWh by 2030

Estimates of Total UK Production of Fracked Gas

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Assume Highest Projection for Fracked Gas Future Demand – Climate Change Committee (2011) estimates

• Assuming significant growth in electricity for electric vehicles

and heat pumps

• Alternative demand – limited growth in electric vehicles and

heat pumps. Renewable Generation

• Current Projections for Onshore and Offshore wind
• 1 million homes/year fitted with PV ~ 40% fitted by 2030
• Severn Tidal Barrage or equivalent completed by 2025

Fossil Fuel/Nuclear Generation

• Existing Nuclear / Coal Stations close as published 09/09/2013
• New Nuclear completions at one reactor per year from 2021.
• New Coal with CCS as demonstration schemes @ 300 MW per

annum from 2020 & 1000 MW per annum from mid 2020s Gas including Fracked Gas will cover any shortfall between DEMAND and COAL + NUCLEAR + RENEWABLE GENERATION

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Future Scenarios for Electricity Generation up to 2030

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Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)

• allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

Existing Coal Existing Nuclear Oil

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)

• allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

100 200 300 400 500 600 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 TWH (billions of units (kWh))

Existing Coal UK Gas Imported Gas New Nuclear? New Coal ? Existing Nuclear

Other Renewables Offshore Wind Onshore Wind

Oil

Data for demand derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)

• allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

Fracked Gas

Limited electric cars or heat pumps

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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

1 1 1 1 1

MW

48 hr prediction 24 hr prediction Actual Actual

26th Sep 27th Sep 28th Sep 29th Sep 30th Sep

Graph shows Wind Energy Prediction 48 and 24 hours in advance and also actual output. Predictions are now very good

Data abstracted from BMReports Website

Predictability of UK Wind Generation

To what extent would variable renewables such as wind cause issues on the secure supply of electricity?

30 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Actual Output (MW) Projected output (MW) Projections made on Day -1

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2000 4000 6000 8000

Actual Output (MW) Projected output (MW) Projections made on Day -1

How Predictable is Wind Energy?

Predictions made for each hour in 2013 had a correlation of 96.48% Predictions made for each hour in 2014 have had a correlation of 97.06% up to 5th October 2014

Data abstracted daily from BMReports Website. Last occurrence at 08:30 on 6th October 2014

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• 1500
• 1000
• 500

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 20 22 24 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Interconnector Flows (MW) Demand (MW) Time (24 hr Clock)

GB Electricity Demand and Interconnector Flows

GB Demand Interconnector Flows 06th October 2014 To GB From GB

Data abstracted from BMReports Website at 21:30 on 6th October 2014

• Net Generation in GB rises from 18941MW at 0500 to 38195MW at 0800 an

increase of 19254MW in 3 hours.

• Maximum change in Wind Output in a 3 hour period on day was 2460 MW (on

this occasion it reduced the net generation demand change).

Does Wind Variability cause problems with other generation?

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2010 2011 2012 2013 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 %

Load Factors for different modes of Generation

CCGT Nuclear Coal Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Wave/Tidal Solar PV Hydro Bioenergy

Since 2012 load factors of Gas, Hydro, Onshore Wind, Offshore Wind and Bioenergy have been comparable close to 30% Load Factor

Variation of Load Factors over last 15 years

Data abstracted from DUKES (2014) Tables 5.9 & 6.5

33 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Load Factor TWh Annual GB Demand Variation and Load Factor Variation Demand (TWh) Onshore (load factor) Offshore (load factor) Solar (load factor)

Annual Wind Variations are in phase with Demand

Wind Load Factor Variations follow general demand trend. Solar Load Factor trend is complementary to that of wind

Data for 2013 abstracted from DECC, Elexon and BMReports Websites – Oct 1st – 5th 2014

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Generation at the Domestic Level Energy Generation

• Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic

installations, hotels – generally less suitable for other businesses

• Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation
• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in

Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).

• The more hot water you use the

more solar heat you get!

• Renewable Heat Incentive available

from 2014

• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm

depending on technology and manufacturer

• Approximate annual estimate of generation

= installed capacity * 8760 * 0.1

hours in year load/capacity factor of 10%

1 2 3 4 5 6

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Average Daily Output (kWh) Output for a 1.25kW PV Array

2011 2012 2013 2014

1 2 3 4 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec kWh per day Overall Solar Energy Gain

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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0 p 2 p 4 p 6 p 8 p 10 p 12 p 14 p 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

wholesale price gas nuclear coal All Renewables Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Solar PV Tidal Stream/Wave

Current and Future Generation Costs

Effective Renewable Costs ROC banding introduced Volume Weighted Average wholesale prices over year Effective Renewable Costs = Wholesale Price + ROC Value

In the Next 10 Years

• Energy Security and Cost issues in the UK will become just as

important as Carbon reduction and at times supply could become critical.

• New nuclear and coal will not be available until after 2020 and

there will be an increasing dependance on imported gas at volatile prices.

• Renewables such as Wind are now very predictable at the 24

hour time scale and can be used strategically with gas generation for a supply which is secure and can respond to demand.

• Currently support for renewables is less than 10% of retail

prices.

• The UK needs a diverse mix of nuclear, renewables and fossil

fuels to provide the resources to tackle the Trilema of Climatye Change, Energy Security and the Cost of Future Energy

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The future is our Responsibility

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Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?

• Closure of Nuclear Stations
• Hinkley Point B and Hunterston are down rated at 70%.
• Heysham 1, Hinkley Point B, Hartlepool, and Hunterston have all been

affected by cracking which may mean up to 4 units out of action until end of December

• pose questions on extended lives indicated above.

Station Type Capacity Started Closure* Wylfa Magnox 490 1971 2015 Heysham 1 AGR 2 x 580 1983/4 2019 Dungeness B AGR 2 x 545 1983/5 2028 Heysham 2 AGR 2 x 615 1988 2023 Hartlepool AGR 2 x 595 1983/4 2024 Hinkley Point B AGR 2 x 610 (430) 1976 2023 Hunterston B AGR 2 x 610 (430) 1976/7 2023 Torness AGR 2 x 625 1988/9 2023 Sizewell B PWR 1188 1995 2035

* World Nuclear Association – September 2014

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Coal Capacity (GW) Scheduled Closure Actual Closure Cockenzie 1.2 By end of 2015

• r before if 20000

hours running since 1st Jan 2008 has been exceeded March 2013 Didcot A 2 March 2013 Ironbridge 1.0 End 2015 Kingsnorth 2 March 2013 Tilbury 1.1 October 2013 Oil Fawley 1 March 2013 Grain 1.4 December 2012 Littlebrook D 1.1 March 2015

Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?

• Closure of Coal/Oil Stations

Above stations opted out of the Large Combustion Plant Directive and must close by end of 2015 at latest. On October 6th 2014 – an announced was made that Longannet (2.23 GW) may also close in 2017 even though it complies with the LCPD

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Strategies being taken by National Grid Demand Side Balancing Reserve (DSBR) Providing opportunity for large industrial consumers to shed load between period 32 (i.e. 16:00hrs) and period 40 (20:00 hours) over the Triad Period November to February. Consumers will be paid for such action. Planned reduction of 570MW for 2014/15 (or ~ 1% of peak demand) And 1140MW for 2015/16 Modelling of impact has been done on the basis of the Value of Lost Load payments at £17 per kWh – implying total payments of up to £1.15 M per day over the Triad Period Supplementary Balancing Reserve (SBR) provision is also planned – i.e having plant which have been mothballed or closed available for providing capacity.

Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?

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The future is our Responsibility

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”

And Finally

We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making on energy – both on supply and demand. We must promote Energy Conservation and develop a coherent generation mix to provide a low carbon, energy secure and affordable future, not only for electricity but also for heat and transport.

Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)