The 2018 Jewish Vote National Post-Election Survey November 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 2018 Jewish Vote

National Post-Election Survey

November 2018

Scope Of Research And Methodology

Figure 2

• National survey conducted November 6, 2018

– 1,139 Jewish Voters

• 903 Base Sample

– Online survey administered by email invitation to web-based panel of 14 million Americans; respondents self-identify as Jewish at beginning of survey in order to be eligible for the study

• 236 Oversample of voters aged 18-34 (130 online, 106 phone) for a total of 436

Millennial interviews

– Phone survey administered on landlines and cellphones – Random selection of people under 35 from national voter file who have distinctive Jewish names and self-identify as Jewish at beginning of survey

– Full sample weighted to be representative by age – All results show 903 weighted interviews – For the base sample, margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval

Key Takeaways

Figure 3

Ø American Jews voted for Democrats by a 76 to 19 percent margin, significantly increasing their Democratic support from 2016. This change is driven by opposition to Trump, and growing identification with a Democratic Party that shares their values as the country becomes more polarized along cultural and political lines. Ø There are major concerns about rising anti-Semitism and right-wing extremism during the Trump Presidency, and a shocking 72 percent believe that Trump's comments and policies are "very or somewhat" responsible for the shooting at Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh. Ø Jewish voters remain emotionally attached to Israel, but also express concerns with Israeli government policies toward the Palestinians. Netanyahu's favorability has dropped to a 9-year low (35 percent favorable/32 percent unfavorable), and American Jews say that Israeli policy toward the Palestinians makes them feel more negative toward Israel.

Key Takeaways (cont’d)

Figure 4

Ø There is no ambiguity over whether it is acceptable to be critical of Israeli government policy: 84 percent think someone can be "pro-Israel" even if they criticize the government's policies. This is consistent with our long-standing finding that Jewish voters want the U.S. to play an active role in helping resolve the conflict, even if it means public disagreements with Israelis and Arabs (64 percent) or exerting pressure on both parties (60 percent). Ø There is a broad consensus (78 percent support) for a detailed comprehensive peace agreement that includes a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, a return to the 1967 borders with land swaps, Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem remaining under Israeli control while Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new Palestinian state, financial compensation for Palestinian refugees, and some return of refugees to Israel. Ø Support for the Iran agreement is very strong (71 percent support) and Jewish voters do not like Trump's decision to withdraw from it (33 percent support/67 percent oppose). Advertising against Congressional candidates who supported the Iran agreement backfired against Republicans, and people who saw the ads said this made them more likely to vote for the Democrat than the Republican (49 percent more likely to support the Democrat; 29 percent more likely to support the Republican).

Figure 5

The Jewish Electorate

16 35 27 36 37 13 36 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Ideology

Progressive Liberal Moderate Conservative 58 37 15 33 27 30 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Party ID

Democrat Republican Independent

U.S. Jews Trend More Democratic Than The General Population

Figure 6

Jewish Voters U.S. Population* U.S. Population*

*Nov. 2018 CNN exit poll

51% Progressive/ Liberal

Jewish Voters

15 6 9 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Yes, financial contribution Yes, volunteered with a campaign Yes, BOTH financial contribution & volunteered No, neither 62 16 7 14 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Democratic primary Republican primary Will not vote in either Not sure/haven't decided

Majority Plan To Vote In 2020 Primaries

Figure 7

Have you made a financial contribution to a political campaign or volunteered with a political campaign? Even though it is a long way off, do you plan to vote in the Democratic or Republican primary for President in 2020, or do you not plan to vote in either Presidential primary?

30% Yes

Figure 8

Attitudes Toward U.S. Politics

Dramatic Break In Outlook After 2016 Election

Figure 9

10 36 54 41 44 34 55 43 39 44 45 26 90 64 46 59 56 66 45 57 61 56 55 74 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jul. 2008 Mar. 2009 Aug. 2009 Mar. 2010 Nov. 2010 Jul. 2011 Nov. 2012 Nov. 2014 Jun. 2015 Jul. 2015 Nov. 2016 Nov. 2018

Country Direction

Right direction Wrong track

13 64 31 46 25 75 45 54 54 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Trump Performs Much Worse Among Jews Than U.S. Population

Figure 10

*Nov. 2018 CNN exit poll

Jewish Voters U.S. Population*

Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Strongly/somewhat approve Strongly/somewhat disapprove

5 50 21 79

14

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 And what about Congress - do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing?

Congress Similarly Unpopular Among Jewish Voters

Figure 11

Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Strongly/somewhat approve Strongly/somewhat disapprove

Democratic Figures Much Stronger Than Republican

Figure 12

65 51 35 18 16 12 9 25 30 32 74 73 67 66

• 80
• 60
• 40
• 20

20 40 60 80 Donald Trump Republican Party Jared Kushner Mitch McConnell Favorable Unfavorable

Favorability

Democratic Party Barack Obama Benjamin Netanyahu

Health Care Biggest Factor In Jewish Vote, Gun Violence Next

Figure 13

Total Jewish Voters Reform Conservative Orthodox Just Jewish Health care 43 40 43 36 50 Gun violence 28 32 30 22 25 Social Security and Medicare 21 21 26 11 21 The economy 19 23 13 17 19 Immigration 18 18 18 28 17 The environment 14 10 10 19 16 Taxes 11 10 13 14 8 Education 8 7 9 11 8 The deficit and government spending 8 9 5 5 9 The Supreme Court 8 8 11 9 5 ISIS and terrorism 7 8 8 11 6 Israel 4 4 4 10 2 Russia 3 2 3 2 4 Iran 1 1 1 3 1

Below is a list of issues facing our country today. Please mark which TWO of these issues were the most important for you in deciding your vote for Congress today.

Concerns About Negative Social Trends Under Trump

Figure 14

4 64 3 64 4 63 4 64 12 79 11 79 11 80 10 81 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Right-wing extremism Racism Anti-immigrant sentiment Anti-Semitism Below are some issues that have been in the news since Donald Trump has become President. For each one, please indicate whether you are more concerned or less concerned about this issue since Donald Trump has been President, or if you feel no different. Much more concerned Much less concerned Much/somewhat more concerned Much/somewhat less concerned

78 6 17 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Increasing Decreasing About the same Thinking about the past few years, do you think anti-Semitism in the United States is increasing, decreasing, or about the same?

Nearly 4 In 5 See Anti-Semitism Increasing

Figure 15

66 75 91 83 84 73 71 14 5 1 5 5 9 5 20 20 8 12 12 17 25 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 18 to 34 years old 35 to 64 years old 65+ years old Reform Conservative Orthodox Just Jewish Increasing Decreasing About the same

Attitudes On Anti-Semitism By Age And Denomination

Figure 16

Anti-Semitism in the U.S.

Age Denomination

39 16 72 28 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 How much do you think Donald Trump’s comments and policies are responsible for the recent shooting that took place at the synagogue in Pittsburgh?

Trump’s Responsibility For Incendiary Rhetoric

Figure 17

Very responsible Not at all responsible Very/somewhat responsible Not at all/not really responsible

35 15 44 16 34 18 42 16 49 6 18 52 31 17 73 27 74 26 66 34 72 28 86 14 31 69 67 33 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Trump Responsibility By Denomination

Figure 18

Trump’s Responsibility

Reform Just Jewish Orthodox Conservative Very responsible Not at all responsible Very/somewhat responsible Not at all/not really responsible Independent Republican Democrat

Denomination Party ID

Figure 19

2018 Jewish Vote

76 19 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Democrat Republican Other Thinking about today’s election for the United States Congress, did you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress in your district?

Jewish Voters Loyal To Democrats

Figure 20

79 77 62 77 16 20 30 17 4 3 7 6 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Reform Conservative Orthodox Just Jewish Democrat Republican Other

Jewish Vote By Denomination

Figure 21

Congressional Vote

Denomination

Gap In Congressional Vote Has Widened Since 2014 Midterm

Figure 22

66 69 69 70 76 31 30 28 29 19 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Nov. 2010 Nov. 2012 Nov. 2014 Nov. 2016 Nov. 2018

Congressional Vote

Democrat Republican

With A Shift Away From Republicans Since Pittsburgh Shooting

Figure 23

74 76 26 19 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jewish Electorate Institute The Mellman Group, Inc J Street GBA Strategies Democrat Republican

Congressional Vote

October 16, 2018 November 6, 2018

+48 +57

Few Voters Considered Crossing Party Lines

Figure 24

3 3 2 16 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Yes, very seriously Yes, somewhat seriously Yes,

• nly a little

seriously Didn't consider (DID NOT VOTE DEMOCRAT) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign consider voting for the Democratic candidate for Congress in your district? 4 6 3 68 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Yes, very seriously Yes, somewhat seriously Yes,

• nly a little

seriously Didn't consider (DID NOT VOTE REPUBLICAN) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign consider voting for the Republican candidate for Congress in your district? Dem voters: 76 Rep voters: 19

Figure 25

The Iran Agreement

Do you support or oppose the agreement that the United States and other countries made during the Obama Administration to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran dismantling its nuclear weapons program and allowing international inspectors to monitor Iran’s facilities?

Support For Iran Agreement Remains Strong

Figure 26

Support Oppose 63 71 37 28 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Nov. 2016 Nov. 2018

17 41 33 67 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 As you may know, President Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear agreement that the United States made with Iran and five other countries. Do you support or oppose Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement?

Trump’s Withdrawal Very Unpopular

Figure 27

Strongly support Strongly oppose Strongly/somewhat support Strongly/somewhat oppose

16 36 19 36 14 53 14 41 18 37 36 25 14 48 34 63 37 63 25 75 31 69 35 64 51 48 27 72 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Iran Deal Withdrawal By Age And Denomination

Figure 28

Iran Deal Withdrawal

Reform Just Jewish Orthodox Conservative Strongly support Strongly oppose Strongly/somewhat support Strongly/somewhat oppose 18 to 34 years old 65+ years old 35 to 64 years old

Age Denomination

6 3 87 8 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Attack Ads About Iran Deal Actually Helped Dems

Figure 29

16 50 34 Yes No Don't know/refused (IF YES) Did these television advertisements or mail pieces make you more likely to support the Democratic candidate, more likely to support the Republican candidate, or make no difference? During this past Congressional election, did you see any television advertisements or mail pieces criticizing Congressional candidates for supporting the Iran nuclear deal? No difference/ No, did not see criticism Much more likely Democrat Much more likely Republican Much/somewhat more likely Democrat Much/somewhat more likely Republican

Figure 30

Attitudes Toward U.S. Role in Resolving the Conflict

25 7 75 25 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Do you support or oppose the United States playing an active role in helping the parties to resolve the Arab- Israeli conflict?

U.S. Role Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict

Figure 31

Strongly support Strongly oppose Strongly/somewhat support Strongly/somewhat oppose

22 9 60 40 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 15 13 50 50 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 (IF SUPPORT U.S. ROLE) Would you support or

• ppose the United States playing an active role in

helping the parties resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict if it meant the United States exerting pressure on Israel in order to make the compromises necessary to achieve peace? (IF SUPPORT U.S. ROLE) Would you support or

• ppose the United States playing an active role in

helping the parties resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict if it meant the United States exerting pressure on both the Israelis and the Arabs to make the compromises necessary to achieve peace?

U.S. Role: Exerting Pressure

Figure 32

Strongly support Strongly oppose Strongly/somewhat support Strongly/somewhat oppose

20 9 64 36 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 17 13 51 49 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 (IF SUPPORT U.S. ROLE) Would you support or

• ppose the United States playing an active role in

helping the parties resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict if it meant the United States publicly stating its disagreements with Israel? (IF SUPPORT U.S. ROLE) Would you support or

• ppose the United States playing an active role in

helping the parties resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict if it meant the United States publicly stating its disagreements with both the Israelis and the Arabs?

U.S. Role: Publicly Stating Disagreements

Figure 33

Strongly support Strongly oppose Strongly/somewhat support Strongly/somewhat oppose

23 5 78 22 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

As you may know, on a few occasions during the past 13 years, Israeli, Palestinian, and American negotiators came close to reaching a final status peace agreement but ultimately fell short. The details of that agreement include: Overall, do you support or oppose such an agreement?

Majority Support For Comprehensive Peace Agreement

Figure 34

• a demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza
• internationally recognized borders based on the lines that existed

in 1967, with mutually agreed land swaps that allow for most Jewish settlers in the West Bank to be inside Israel while the Palestinians get comparable land areas in return

• Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new

Palestinian state while Israel retains control of Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem

• international forces to monitor the new Palestinian state and

border crossings

• financial compensation for Palestinian refugees while allowing a

limited number of refugees to return to Israel if they meet specific family reunification criteria and the Israeli government approves

• financial Palestinians recognize Israel as the nation-state of the

Jewish people, and Israel recognizes the Palestinian state as the nation-state of the Palestinian people

Strongly support Strongly oppose Strongly/somewhat support Strongly/somewhat

• ppose

Steady Support For Peace Agreement Over Last 6 Years

76 57 72 76 70 78 24 43 28 24 30 22 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mar. 2009 Jul. 2011 Nov. 2012 Nov. 2014 Nov. 2016 Nov. 2018 Overall, do you support or oppose such an agreement?

Figure 35

Support Oppose

22 16 78 83 20 40 60 80 100 7 6 28 34 20 40 60 80 100 As you may know, people often refer to a “two-state solution” when discussing the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. A two-state solution means a peace agreement that establishes a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza alongside the State of Israel. Below are some statements about a two-state solution. For each statement, please mark whether you agree or disagree with that statement.

Two-State Solution Is Popular

Figure 36

Strongly agree Strongly/somewhat agree Strongly disagree Strongly/somewhat disagree TWO-STATE: I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. TWO-STATE/EAST JERUSALEM: I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with its capital in East Jerusalem.

Two-State Solution Over Time

78 81 79 82 80 72 81 83 22 19 21 18 20 28 19 16 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jul. 2008 Aug. 2009 Nov. 2010 Nov. 2012 Nov. 2014 Jun. 2015 Nov. 2016 Nov. 2018 TWO-STATE: I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.

Figure 37

Agree Disagree

Two-State Solution With East Jerusalem As Capital Of Palestinian State

70 78 79 72 65 72 78 30 22 21 28 35 28 22 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug. 2009 Nov. 2010 Nov. 2012 Nov. 2014 Jun. 2015 Nov. 2016 Nov. 2018 TWO-STATE/EAST JERUSALEM: I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with its capital in East Jerusalem.

Figure 38

Agree Disagree

25 24 75 76 20 40 60 80 100 7 6 25 28 20 40 60 80 100 As you may know, people often refer to a “two-state solution” when discussing the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. A two-state solution means a peace agreement that establishes a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza alongside the State of Israel. Below are some statements about a two-state solution. For each statement, please mark whether you agree or disagree with that statement.

Two-State Solution Seen As Important To Both Israel And US

Figure 39

Strongly agree Strongly/somewhat agree Strongly disagree Strongly/somewhat disagree IMPORTANT FOR ISRAEL: A two-state solution is necessary to strengthen Israeli security and ensure Israel’s Jewish democratic character. IMPORTANT FOR U.S.: A two-state solution is an important national security interest for the United States.

Figure 40

Attachment to Israel

32 12 65 35 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 26 19 55 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 More positive More negative About the same

American Jews Show Strong Emotional Attachment To Israel

Figure 41

Compared to 5-10 years ago, do you feel more positive, more negative, or about the same toward Israel? How emotionally attached are you to Israel? Very attached Not at all attached Very/somewhat attached Not at all/not very attached

84 76 83 92 16 22 17 8 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jewish Voters 18 to 34 years old 35 to 64 years old 65+ years old Yes No

Criticism Of Israeli Policy And Being Pro-Israel By Age

Figure 42

People often talk about being “pro-Israel.” Do you think someone can be critical of Israeli government policies and still be “pro-Israel?”

Total Age

86 89 79 80 14 11 20 20 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Reform Conservative Orthodox Just Jewish Yes No

Criticism Of Israeli Policy And Being Pro-Israel By Denomination

Figure 43

Possible to be Critical and Pro-Israel

Denomination

Figure 44

Attitudes Toward Israeli Policies

19 32 48 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Positive Negative No Impact 17 29 54 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 More positive More negative No difference

Effect Of Israeli Policy And Settlements On Opinion Of Israel

Figure 45

Does the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank make you feel positive about Israel, negative about Israel, or have no impact on how you feel about Israel? Has Israeli government policy toward the Palestinians made you feel more positive or more negative about Israel, or has it made no difference

• n how you feel about Israel?

American Jews Oppose Settlement Construction

Figure 46

23 49 27 20 40 60 80 100

Israel should suspend all construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank

Based on what you know about Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which of the following statements comes closest to your own point of view?

Israel should suspend construction of Israeli settlements that are outside the core settlement blocs, but continue construction in areas that are already developed Israel should build Israeli settlements in any area of the West Bank that it wants

76% Total Suspend

Israeli Policies Toward Non-Orthodox Population

Figure 47

14 21 32 34 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 A great deal A good amount A little Nothing How much have you heard about Israeli policy towards the non-Orthodox population, such as who can pray at the Western Wall, who can perform marriage ceremonies, who can grant divorces, and who can convert to Judaism? 22 50 28 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 More positive More negative No difference (IF GREAT DEAL/GOOD AMOUNT) Has Israeli policy towards the non-Orthodox population made you feel more positive or more negative about Israel, or has it made no difference in how you feel about Israel?

32 31 35 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Helped Hurt No impact Do you think Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies have helped Israel’s relations with the United States, hurt Israel’s relations with the United States, or had no impact on Israel’s relations with the United States?

Netanyahu’s Effect On U.S.-Israel Relations

Figure 48