The 2018 Jewish Vote National Post-Election Survey November 2018 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 2018 Jewish Vote National Post-Election Survey November 2018

Scope Of Research And Methodology Figure 2 • National survey conducted November 6, 2018 – 1,139 Jewish Voters • 903 Base Sample – Online survey administered by email invitation to web-based panel of 14 million Americans; respondents self-identify as Jewish at beginning of survey in order to be eligible for the study • 236 Oversample of voters aged 18-34 (130 online, 106 phone) for a total of 436 Millennial interviews – Phone survey administered on landlines and cellphones – Random selection of people under 35 from national voter file who have distinctive Jewish names and self-identify as Jewish at beginning of survey – Full sample weighted to be representative by age – All results show 903 weighted interviews – For the base sample, margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval

Key Takeaways Figure 3 Ø American Jews voted for Democrats by a 76 to 19 percent margin, significantly increasing their Democratic support from 2016. This change is driven by opposition to Trump, and growing identification with a Democratic Party that shares their values as the country becomes more polarized along cultural and political lines. Ø There are major concerns about rising anti-Semitism and right-wing extremism during the Trump Presidency, and a shocking 72 percent believe that Trump's comments and policies are "very or somewhat" responsible for the shooting at Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh. Ø Jewish voters remain emotionally attached to Israel, but also express concerns with Israeli government policies toward the Palestinians. Netanyahu's favorability has dropped to a 9-year low (35 percent favorable/32 percent unfavorable), and American Jews say that Israeli policy toward the Palestinians makes them feel more negative toward Israel.

Key Takeaways (cont’d) Figure 4 Ø There is no ambiguity over whether it is acceptable to be critical of Israeli government policy: 84 percent think someone can be "pro-Israel" even if they criticize the government's policies. This is consistent with our long-standing finding that Jewish voters want the U.S. to play an active role in helping resolve the conflict, even if it means public disagreements with Israelis and Arabs (64 percent) or exerting pressure on both parties (60 percent). Ø There is a broad consensus (78 percent support) for a detailed comprehensive peace agreement that includes a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, a return to the 1967 borders with land swaps, Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem remaining under Israeli control while Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new Palestinian state, financial compensation for Palestinian refugees, and some return of refugees to Israel. Ø Support for the Iran agreement is very strong (71 percent support) and Jewish voters do not like Trump's decision to withdraw from it (33 percent support/67 percent oppose). Advertising against Congressional candidates who supported the Iran agreement backfired against Republicans, and people who saw the ads said this made them more likely to vote for the Democrat than the Republican (49 percent more likely to support the Democrat; 29 percent more likely to support the Republican).

The Jewish Electorate Figure 5

U.S. Jews Trend More Democratic Than The General Population Figure 6 Party ID Ideology Jewish Voters U.S. Population* Jewish Voters U.S. Population* 100 100 90 90 80 80 51% 70 70 Progressive/ 60 60 Liberal 58 50 50 40 40 37 37 36 36 30 30 35 33 30 27 27 20 20 16 10 10 15 13 0 0 Democrat Republican Independent Progressive Liberal Moderate Conservative *Nov. 2018 CNN exit poll

Majority Plan To Vote In 2020 Primaries Figure 7 Have you made a financial contribution to a political Even though it is a long way off, do you plan to vote campaign or volunteered with a political campaign? in the Democratic or Republican primary for President in 2020, or do you not plan to vote in either Presidential primary? Yes, financial contribution Yes, volunteered with a campaign Democratic primary Republican primary Yes, BOTH financial contribution & volunteered Will not vote in either Not sure/haven't decided No, neither 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 30% Yes 70 60 60 62 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 7 6 16 10 10 15 14 9 0 0

Attitudes Toward U.S. Politics Figure 8

Dramatic Break In Outlook After 2016 Election Figure 9 Country Direction Right direction Wrong track 100 90 90 80 74 66 70 64 61 59 57 56 56 60 55 55 54 50 40 46 45 45 44 44 43 41 39 30 36 34 26 20 10 10 0 Jul. Mar. Aug. Mar. Nov. Jul. Nov. Nov. Jun. Jul. Nov. Nov. 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2015 2016 2018

Trump Performs Much Worse Among Jews Than U.S. Population Figure 10 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Strongly/somewhat approve Strongly/somewhat disapprove Jewish Voters U.S. Population* 100 90 80 70 75 60 64 50 54 40 46 45 30 31 20 25 10 13 0 54 *Nov. 2018 CNN exit poll

Congress Similarly Unpopular Among Jewish Voters Figure 11 And what about Congress - do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing? Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Strongly/somewhat approve Strongly/somewhat disapprove 100 90 80 79 70 60 50 50 40 30 20 21 10 5 0 14

Democratic Figures Much Stronger Than Republican Figure 12 Favorability 80 60 65 51 40 35 20 Barack Democratic Benjamin 18 16 Obama Party Netanyahu 12 9 0 Donald Republican Jared Mitch Trump Party Kushner McConnell 25 -20 30 32 -40 -60 67 66 73 74 -80 Favorable Unfavorable

Health Care Biggest Factor In Jewish Vote, Gun Violence Next Figure 13 Below is a list of issues facing our country today. Please mark which TWO of these issues were the most important for you in deciding your vote for Congress today. Total Jewish Reform Conservative Orthodox Just Jewish Voters Health care 43 40 43 36 50 Gun violence 28 32 30 22 25 Social Security and Medicare 21 21 26 11 21 The economy 19 23 13 17 19 Immigration 18 18 18 28 17 The environment 14 10 10 19 16 Taxes 11 10 13 14 8 Education 8 7 9 11 8 The deficit and government spending 8 9 5 5 9 The Supreme Court 8 8 11 9 5 ISIS and terrorism 7 8 8 11 6 Israel 4 4 4 10 2 Russia 3 2 3 2 4 Iran 1 1 1 3 1

Concerns About Negative Social Trends Under Trump Figure 14 Below are some issues that have been in the news since Donald Trump has become President. For each one, please indicate whether you are more concerned or less concerned about this issue since Donald Trump has been President, or if you feel no different. 64 81 Anti-Semitism 4 10 Much more concerned 63 80 Much/somewhat Anti-immigrant sentiment more concerned 4 11 Much less concerned Much/somewhat 64 79 less concerned Racism 3 11 64 79 Right-wing extremism 4 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Nearly 4 In 5 See Anti-Semitism Increasing Figure 15 Thinking about the past few years, do you think anti-Semitism in the United States is increasing, decreasing, or about the same? 100 90 80 78 70 60 50 40 30 20 6 17 10 0 Increasing Decreasing About the same

Attitudes On Anti-Semitism By Age And Denomination Figure 16 Anti-Semitism in the U.S. Increasing Decreasing About the same Age Denomination 100 90 91 80 84 83 70 75 73 71 66 60 50 40 30 20 25 20 20 17 10 5 5 5 5 14 12 12 1 8 9 0 18 to 34 35 to 64 65+ Reform Conservative Orthodox Just Jewish years old years old years old

Trump’s Responsibility For Incendiary Rhetoric Figure 17 How much do you think Donald Trump’s comments and policies are responsible for the recent shooting that took place at the synagogue in Pittsburgh? Very responsible Not at all responsible Very/somewhat responsible Not at all/not really responsible 100 90 80 70 72 60 50 40 39 30 28 20 16 10 0

Trump Responsibility By Denomination Figure 18 Trump’s Responsibility Very responsible Not at all responsible Very/somewhat responsible Not at all/not really responsible Denomination Party ID 100 90 80 86 70 74 73 72 69 67 60 66 50 52 49 40 44 42 30 35 34 34 33 31 31 28 27 20 26 18 18 17 10 16 16 14 15 6 0 Reform Conservative Orthodox Just Jewish Democrat Republican Independent

2018 Jewish Vote Figure 19

Jewish Voters Loyal To Democrats Figure 20 Thinking about today’s election for the United States Congress, did you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress in your district? 100 90 80 76 70 60 50 40 30 20 19 10 5 0 Democrat Republican Other

Jewish Vote By Denomination Figure 21 Congressional Vote Democrat Republican Other Denomination 100 90 80 79 77 77 70 60 62 50 40 30 30 20 20 7 17 6 16 10 4 3 0 Reform Conservative Orthodox Just Jewish

Gap In Congressional Vote Has Widened Since 2014 Midterm Figure 22 Congressional Vote Democrat Republican 100 90 76 80 70 69 69 66 70 60 50 40 30 31 30 29 28 20 19 10 0 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018