The 2 nd Year. Really???? Myths, propaganda, realities, and guidelines Clifford Adelman, Institute for Higher Education Policy
Rules of Engagement This is a big crowd, but you can interrupt at any time with burning questions---as long as somebody smells the smoke! Otherwise, please save the speeches for later. We may move through some slides quickly, but the whole presentation will be on-line at FYE Central. In the front, there are some copies of the publications where you can get more detail after the session is over. If you don’t get them, order online (they are free) at www.ed.gov/pubs/edpubs.html
My FYE credentials and comments on your program. . . . . .nothing written on slides here. . .
Put on your hiking boots, and bring plenty of water We’re headed into data -land
Data source: virtues The most recently completed of 4 grade cohort longitudinal studies by the U.S. Department of Education (1 started in 2002 and is still in progress) Scheduled high school graduating class of 1992, followed through December 2000 Full high school and college transcripts---which don’t lie, exaggerate, or forget ---along with surveys, test scores, interviews with parents, etc.
Data Source: Limitations Students are of traditional age (started in 8 th grade and followed to age 26/27), so doesn’t address the history of beginning independent students Sample (initially, 25,000) is not large enough to produce state-level analyses. The closest we can get is with the 9 Census Divisions, e.g. Mid-Atlantic or South West Central
The stories that emerge are student centered not institution centered Though each institution attended by the student is responsible for creating the conditions under which students are actively and positively involved in learning
Student-centered is a product of mobility dynamics: time and place 20 percent don’t start in the fall term, but the institution reports only those who do start in the fall term. 64 percent attended more than 1 school; 25 percent attended more than 2---and 25 percent of these people crossed state lines in the process. 13 percent of those based in 4-year colleges attended community college in summer terms; another14 percent moved back and forth between CCs and 4-year. 62 percent earned summer term credits.
And if that doesn’t make you dizzy. . . 20% of students who start in a 4-year college and earn a bachelor’s earn it from a different school; 10 percent in a different state 25% of traditional-age community college transfers cross state lines to the 4-year For 41% of students who got to Year 2, the last undergraduate school attended was different from the first (whether a degree was awarded or not) !
Why do we pour extraordinary effort into the 1 st year? We want our students to move to the 2 nd year, and preferably at our school, of course. We see the 1 st year as the drop-out risk year. We want our students to accumulate sufficient academic momentum to lead them to completion of credentials, preferably at our school, of course We want our students’ academic histories to be filled with concurrent---if not leading---knowledge, skills, and dispositions to contribute to our economic and society
Ultimately, this story is not about growing up . . . although that happens along the way.
Basic persistence: academic calendar year 1 to academic calendar year 2 If the student enrolls in any term in year 1 (July 1 through June 30), and turns up in any term and at any school in year 2 (July 1 through June 30), that student has persisted. With this student-centered definition, 90 percent of the cohort “persists,” as follows:
Persistence to the 2 nd year and its discontents: by first institution 4-year Commun Other sub-bacc College Percent persisting 95% 84% 72% Earned 1-year certif. <1 <1 15 Less than 20 creds in 16 61 31 1 st calendar year In lowest 1 st year GPA 15 22 12 quintile
Of the 90 percent persisters, 1/3rd . . . come into the second year with two or more of the following: less than 20 credits, 3 or more remedial courses, and a GPA in the lowest quintile
Why the 2 nd year? “Hazard Probabilities” Departure timing of All 4-year CC status drop-outs starters starters 1 st calendar year .102 .046 .164 2 nd calendar year .061 .032 .103 3 rd calendar year .048 .026 .070 4 th calendar year .039 .023 .045 5 th calendar year .037 .024 .039 6 th calendar year .041 .030 .042 7 th calendar year .021 .019 .023
Why did they leave, according to them? — by timing of exit Money Job/Mil Academic Personal Mood 1 st year 20% 15% 6% 32% 27% 2 nd year 25 11 6 43 14 3 rd -4 th 19 17 4 35 21 year 5 th -8 th 18 19 8 29 21 year
Why did they really leave? — by timing of exit Delay GPA at Probation Low Kids Final / Dismiss Reading by 20 Entry 1 st year 43% 1.74 18% 51 16 2 nd year 31 1.98 33 50 16 3 rd -4 th 25 2.07 29 37 7 year 5 th -8 th 14 2.06 40 38 9 year
Performance indicators through the end of year 2, Part 1 Of those who Attended a 4- earned year but no bachelor’s bachelor’s Earned 20+ 91% 47% credits in year 1 Always full-time 79 38 Continuously 94 46 enrolled
Performance indicators through the end of year 2, Part II Earned Attended Earned Attended bach 4-yr, no bach 4-yr, no bach bach Ave creds Ave creds Mean GPA Mean GPA Started in 59 32 2.92 2.03 4-year Started in 49 32 2.84 2.37 CC No remed 59 34 2.97 2.19 in 1 st year
So what have we seen so far? High persistence to 2 nd year with weak underpinnings, hence threats to further persistence Most of the weakness/threats occur among those who started in community colleges The principal weakness lies in 12 th grade reading skills Delayed entry is a killer; so is becoming a parent by age 20 Continuous enrollment is more important than full-time status By the end of the 2 nd year, there is a 25 credit gap between those who finish degrees and those who don’t
Gateway course completion rates by the end of year 2 (non-math) Earned Bach Attended 4-year, no bachelor’s Gen. Psychology 62% 32% Gen. Biology 35 12 U.S. hist surveys 33 15 Micro/Macro 30 9 Gen. Chemistry 30 8 Intro Philosophy 19 5
College-level math course completion by the end of Year 2 Earned Attended 4-year, bachelor’s no bachelor’s College Algebra 27% 14% Statistics (Math) 14 4 Pre-calculus 22 6 Calculus 24 3 ALL COLLEGE- 71 (6.30 cr.) 38 (5.34 cr.) LEVEL MATH
A little light through the clouds When students who never earned a degree took these and other gateway courses, they earned credits at the same rate as those who did earn the degree, suggesting that Close tracking of student progress, with electronic transcript bells and whistles, can put a zoom lens and macro on your students who can be talked through key gates in Year 2 The world has gone quantitative, and the momentum of math does not stop in either the matriculation line or at the end of Year 1
End of the 1 st Year versus the end of the 2 nd Year: degree completion probability change End of 1 st Year End of 2 nd Year H.S. Academic 0.075 0.074 Resources Quint SES quintile 0.064 0.058 Low credits -0.337 -0.260 GPA Quintile 0.219 0.167 Ever part-time N.A. -0.292 Summer credits N.A 0.116
Let’s translate this The variables you see are the only ones that are statistically significant Credit lag is the most serious of the problems, but is obviously affected when the “part - time” variable is entered High school academic resources remains almost as a constant.
The paradox of rising expectations---I need your help explaining this: In grade 10 and grade 12, we asked students a series of questions from which a measure of education expectations was constructed Two years after high school, when 90 percent of those who entered higher ed were in school, we asked them again, and compared their answers to the grade 12 construction The worse their performance through Year 2 the more likely they were to raise their expectations
Go figure! Raised educ Lowered educ expectations expectations Less than 20 22% 14% credits in 1 st Yr 20 or more 8 4 credits in 1 st Yr Lowest GPA 19 8 quintile in Year 2 Highest GPA 9 9 quintile in Year 2
Your vision, as custodians of the 1 st year Has to look both forward and back We looked forward to the 2 nd year to demonstrate that the risks are still there and that the primary issue is credit momentum Now we turn back to the high school, in order to determine how to bring students across the 20 additive credit-line coming into the 2 nd year
Goals for coming out of high school, and benchmarks of transition, I Real Algebra 2---which means one math step beyond Algebra 2 Reading at a minimum of simple inference, which means you have got to reach out and sponsor creative reading boot camps, e.g. with TV and movie scripts Ideally, 6 credits of dual-enrollment in real stuff (including 1 gateway course), not fluff Direct entry in the summer term
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