Testimony to Senate Committee on y Natural Resources, Chairman Troy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Testimony to Senate Committee on y Natural Resources, Chairman Troy Fraser

August 18, 2010 Trip Doggett President & CEO

Installed Capacity

Installed Capacity

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p y

2009 Energy Production - by Fuel

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Reserve Margins for Years 2000 through 2015

60% 50% 60%

E i ti l t d l t d Pl d ti d

40%

Existing plants and plants under construction Planned generation under Full Interconnection Studies

30% 12.5% Target 10% 20% 0% 10% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Generation Output by Fuel – Summer Peak Day

July 13, 2009

Wind Other Hydro Gas Coal Nuclear

70,000 80,000 50,000 60,000

MCPE = $30.04 MCPE = $74.16

40,000 50,000

MCPE = $16.90

20,000 30,000 10,000

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0:15 1:15 2:15 3:15 4:15 5:15 6:15 7:15 8:15 9:15 10:15 11:15 12:15 13:15 14:15 15:15 16:15 17:15 18:15 19:15 20:15 21:15 22:15 23:15

Generation Output by Fuel – Winter Peak Day

January 8, 2010

Wind Other Hydro Gas Coal Nuclear

70,000 80,000 50,000 60,000

MCPE $37 63 MCPE = $83.75 MCPE = $110.78

40,000

MCPE = $37.63

20,000 30,000 10,000

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0:15 1:15 2:15 3:15 4:15 5:15 6:15 7:15 8:15 9:15 10:15 11:15 12:15 13:15 14:15 15:15 16:15 17:15 18:15 19:15 20:15 21:15 22:15 23:15

The ERCOT Transmission Grid

There are 40 327 Miles of Transmission Lines in Texas There are 40,327 Miles of Transmission Lines in Texas…

8,917 Miles of 345kV Lines 19,748 Miles of 138kV Lines , 6,593 circuit miles of transmission built since 1999 5,729 circuit miles of transmission under study $4 4 b i t t i $4.4 b investment in transmission placed in service since 1999 $8 2 b d d l t $8.2 b under development (including CREZ transmission)

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In ERCOT Today

ERCOT Renew able Generation – Wind

• The Current Installed Wind Capacity is

~ 9,317 MW

In ERCOT Today…

9,317 MW

This makes Texas the largest wind power jurisdiction in North America (passing California in 2006)

• We’re studying ~ 41,000 MW in

additional wind interconnection additional wind interconnection development

Additional bulk transmission lines are already needed in West Texas (independent y ( p

• f CREZ generation)

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ERCOT Renew able Generation – Wind

12,000 300 892 892 1,128 10,000 12,000

MW

Cumulative Planned (Signed Interconnection Agreement) Cumulative MW Installed

9,617 10,209 10,209 10,445 9,467 8,005 150 300 8,000 8,916 4,785 317 317 317 317 317 6,000 1,854 2,875 9,3 9, 9, 9, 9, 2 000 4,000 116 116 816 977 1,173 1,385 , 2,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

as of July 31, 2010

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Example: Challenge of Follow ing Wind Variability

4500 5000 65,000 70,000 3000 3500 4000 55,000 60,000

W

9:39 ‐ 600MW fleet 13:15 ‐ 600MW fleet

2000 2500 3000 45,000 50,000

Load MW

Wind MW

OOME up issued 13:15 600MW fleet OOME down issued

1000 1500 35,000 40,000 500 25,000 30,000

8/9/10 8/9/10 8/10/10 8/10/10 8/11/10 8/11/10 8/12/10 8/12/10 8/13/10 8/13/10 8/14/10 8/14/10 8/15/10 8/15/10 8/16/10 8/16/10

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Integrated Load Actual Integrated Wind Output

Conclusions

• Reserve margins appear to be steady over the next few years with a

significant amount of generation under study; continued development of conventional generation is needed to meet load growth.

• Reducing the ERCOT market’s reliance on natural gas capacity would

have positive implications for reliability and price volatility. However, conventional generation is required to respond to the variable nature of bl h i d renewable resources, such as wind.

• ERCOT is a world leader in wind generation and integration of

renewable resources.

• Demand response will be an integral part of meeting Texas’ energy

needs in the future and will affect ERCOT’s load forecasts going forward.

• Nodal will help in responding to steep ramps of variable
• generation. Nodal is likely to influence Reserve Margins in out years.

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