Tereos Group
Investor presentation
February 2018
Tereos Group Investor presentation February 2018 Disclaimer - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Tereos Group Investor presentation February 2018 Disclaimer IMPORTANT: You must read the following before continuing and, in accessing such information, you agree to be bound by the following restrictions. This document was prepared by Tereos
February 2018
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IMPORTANT: You must read the following before continuing and, in accessing such information, you agree to be bound by the following restrictions. This document was prepared by Tereos (the “Company”) for the sole purpose of its investor presentation held on February 2018. The information contained in this document has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed upon, the fairness, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained in this document and the Company, as well as its affiliates, directors, advisors, employees and representatives accept no responsibility in this respect. This document contains certain statements that are forward-looking. These statements refer in particular to the Company’s forecasts, its expansion of
differing from those explicitly or implicitly included in these statements and generally all statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words “believe”, “expect”, “project”, “anticipate”, “seek”, “estimate”, “should”, “could” or similar expressions. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees
whatsoever for such forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake to update or revise the forward-looking statements that are presented in this document to reflect new information, future events or for any other reason and any opinion expressed in this presentation is subject to change without notice. This document contains information about the Company’s markets, including their size and prospects. Unless otherwise indicated, the information is based on the Company’s estimates and is provided for information purposes only. The Company’s estimates are based on information obtained from third party sources, its customers, its suppliers, trade organisations and other stakeholders in the markets in which the Company operates. The Company cannot guarantee that the data on which its estimates are based are accurate and exhaustive, or that its competitors define the markets in which they
In this document, references to “Adjusted EBITDA” correspond to the net income (loss) before income taxes, share of profit of associates and joint ventures, net financial income (expense), depreciation and amortization, impairment of goodwill, gain on bargain purchase, and price complements. It is also restated from the change in fair value of financial instruments, of inventories and of sales and purchase commitments except for the portion of these elements related to trading activities, from the change in fair value of biological assets, from non-recurring items (mainly disposals of subsidiaries) and seasonality effect. The seasonality effect corresponds to a timing difference in the recognition of depreciation and price complement between the Guarantor’s Consolidated Financial Statements under IFRS and Guarantor’s management accounts. Adjusted EBITDA is not a financial measure defined by IFRS as a measurement of financial performance and may not be comparable to other similarly-titled indicators used by other companies. Adjusted EBITDA provided as additional information only and should not be considered as a substitute for operating income or net cash provided by operating activities. Percentages included in the following presentation may be calculated on non-rounded figures and therefore may vary from percentages calculated on rounded figures.
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WORLD LARGEST SUGAR GROUP
IN EUROPE ALCOHOL & ETHANOL STARCH
IN EUROPE
1ST
IN FRANCE
4TH
IN BRAZIL
3RD
IN EUROPE
(*) Source : FO Lichts – May 2017 1000 2000 3000 4000 RANKING OF WORLD SUGAR PRODUCTION BY COMPANY*
(1 000 TONNES GROSS VALUE - 2016/17)
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INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES IN 13 COUNTRIES
LATIN AMERICA
8
INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES
Countries: Brazil Raw materials: sugar cane, corn, cassava
EUROPE
32
INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES
Countries: Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Italy, Romania, Spain, UK Raw materials: sugarbeet, wheat, potato, corn, alfalfa
ASIA
3
INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES
Countries: China, Indonesia Raw materials: wheat, corn
AFRICA / INDIAN OCEAN
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INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES Countries: Kenya, Mozambique, Réunion (FR), Tanzania
Raw materials: sugar cane SALE OFFICES TEREOS COMMODITIES R&D CENTRES
ESTABLISHED IN 17 COUNTRIES
Only sugar producer with presence on 3 continents
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Proteins Sweeteners (grains) Sugar (sugarbeet, cane)
53 %
46% 8%
Breakdown of 2016/17 revenue by products Other (of which energy)
11% 6%
Animal nutrition
5% 9%
Starch and other derivatives (grains) Alcohol / Ethanol (sugarbeet, cane, grains)
16%
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Top 10 clients Others
Complemented by strong retail brands
Blue chip, diversified industrial clients Recognized retail brands
Food Soft drinks Spirits Others
2016/17 Group Revenues
For example
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Breakdown by division Breakdown by division
32% 51% 15% 1%
Sugar Europe Sugar International Starch & Sweeteners Others (incl. Elim)
39% 27% 31% 3%
Sugar Europe Sugar International Starch & Sweeteners Others (incl. Elim)
Revenues in 16/17
Adjusted EBITDA in 16/17
+15% vs. 15/16 +38% vs. 15/16 +2.1 ppts vs. 15/16
in Adj. EBITDA Margin
Group
Cash flow in 16/17
+€153 M vs. 15/16
355 508 15/16 16/17 Tereos Group
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150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195
3 6 9 12 15 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e Surplus/Deficit World Production World Consumption
After 2 years of deficit
Source: LMC, January 2018
Production/Consumption (in Mt) Surplus/Deficit (in Mt)
Global sugar supply/demand balance
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9M average world sugar price (NY#11) down 25% vs. 9M 16/17 Slight rebound since low point hit in June 17 (+7%) Brazilian ethanol/sugar parity currently in favor of ethanol Brazilian millers’ mix decision will be crucial for sugar balance next year 2019/20 LMC price forecasts (Jan/18): hovering around 15.5 US$cts/lb
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 NY#11 (US$Cts/lb) LMC forecasts for NY#11 (US$Cts/lb) US$cts/lb
High US$23.81cts/lb Low US$10.39cts/lb
Source: Bloomberg, 19 February 2018
Current US$13.38cts/lb
Historical world sugar prices Historical sugar premium/(discount) over ethanol
Source: CEPEA/ESALQ and Group estimates
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Liberalization of EU market and favorable weather
EU-28 S&D (MT) 16/17 17/18 Sugar Production 15.9 ≈ 20 Sugar Consumption 17.7 ≈ 17.5 Imports 2.9 ≈ 1 Exports 1.4 ≈ 3.5
Source : Tereos
average +0.9 MT/Ha
industrial capacities
Source: Tereos
EU could rank as the largest origin for white exports in 2017/18 Expected sugar production at ≈ 20MMT
impacted by isoglucose in the short-term
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300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 EU Commission reported price (ex-works, €/T)
After favorable H1
reflecting good conditions in high contractualization period last year
Increased acreage in the EU (+14%1) + favorable weather
Increased volume of sugar available + current levels of world sugar price
€/T
(1): Source EU Commission, 6th October, 2017
Average quota sugar price within the EU
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Source: (a) and (b) EU Commission, EU Sugar Balance, January 2018 Update, (c) EU Commission, Voluntary Coupled Support, September 2017
France
a = Yield (in t/ha, tonnes white sugar equivalent) / b = production of the campaign (in mt) / c = 2017 VCS (in mEUR) (*) with irrigation
Spain
UK
Germany
Netherlands
Belgium
Italy
Greece
Croatia
Romania
Finland
Sweden
Denmark
Lithuania
Autriche
Hungary
Slovakia
Czech Rep.
Poland
European Commission forecast of the 2017/18 production and yield/ha (EU 28) and VCS for 2017
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+1.8% p.a. +1.8% p.a.
Global sugar demand
Steadily growing world sugar demand
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “Sugar”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017- 2026, OECD Publishing, Paris
In million tonne¹
Note: (1) Raw sugar equivalent
Sugar consumption growth lies today in emerging countries
By 2025 emerging countries will account for c.75% of the world consumption Growth in emerging countries +2.5% p.a.
Long-term sugar prices will have to justify new capacity expansion in the world sugar industry
Modest sugar consumption reduction forecasted in EU
Brazil Possible mix adjustment towards ethanol to comply with COP21
43% of CO2 emissions come from transports in Brazil vs. 23% in average worldwide Demand for ethanol in Brazil may reach 50 bi. Liters by 2030 215 Mt of additional sugarcane
Source: BTG Pactual *Source: LMC, January 2018
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Better valorize our productions Continue to reduce our costs Leverage our diversification
1 2 3
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Client Focused organization
Marketing R&D Market Research Market Risk Management Sales Customer Support Logistics/Supply chain 26% 19% 16% 14% 11% 14%
2016/17 EUROPEAN SALES Sweet&You
1
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Logistics
Export platform Transport Warehousing & Elevation capabilities
Market Research
Full team on sugar Several offices Recognized thought leader
Tereos Commodities
Competencies International footprint: 7
Mix of origins
Market Risks Management
Competencies Strict framework Tools
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Secure supply at an
Ensure best-in-class production costs Secure efficient logistics
Yields / Sugar Content Sustainability / Organic Crop development costs Volume saturate plants Plant capacity optimization Finished products warehousing Syrup tanks Container loading Long term supplier contracts Attractive supplier price
Raw material preservation Digitalization Energy consumption Product mix flexibility Customer volume lifting Transport Elevation capacity
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Digitalization Investments
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Digital beet Analytical tools Equipment Robots Artificial intelligence Interactive tools
21
2
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gains over 2015 - 18 More than
Secured by end 2016/17
New European Campus:
New administrative center
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factor for our customers
generally gain traction in animal nutrition
generally the growing world food needs
32% 51% 15% 1%
Sugar Europe Sugar International Starch & Sweeteners Others (incl. Elim)
16/17 Adj. EBITDA breakdown by division
Starch & Sweeteners Sugar International
3
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Brazil: sugar recovery increase Brazil: sugar / ha 13% above C/S Brazil: yields 7% above C/S * Brazil: volume +2% (C/S²: -4%) Brazil: 5 plants/top 10 (harvest. eff)* France: +22% of beet contracted France: >145 d campaign (107 LY) France: +35% volume processed France: average daily volume >= LY Europe: +15% sugar sold Exports: 170kt vs. 50kt LY
² C/S = Center/South region
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4
83 74 211 233 140 148
9M 16/17 (proforma*) 9M 17/18
201 124 1 116 1 173 914 961 1 308 1 405
9M 16/17 9M 17/18
(*) The 2016/2017 pro forma column shows adjusted EBITDA on a restated basis, so as to take into account the change in fair value of derivatives, sales and purchases commitments, and inventories relating to trading activities.
Sales (€m)
All group divisions posted results in line vs. last year
Sugar Europe Starch & Sweeteners Sugar International
Others
hedging positions in Brazil recorded in H1 and gains from performance plans
Adjusted EBITDA (€m)
3 539 3 664 438 452
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Page 28 2,106 2,024 2,099 2,166 2,212 1,960 2,159 2,079 2,421 2,425 2,574 6,1x 3,8x 3,1x 2,5x 2,8x 2,8x 4,5x 4,7x 4,3x 4,0x 4,1x
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 10,0 Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Dec/16 Mar/17 Dec/17 Net debt (in €m) Leverage*
Source: Tereos (*) Defined as net debt / adjusted EBITDA (**) Defined as cash & cash equivalent plus undrawn credit lines as at 31 December 2017
Strong liquidity** €0.8bn
Net debt (in €m) and leverage evolution
Strong pool
banks
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208 205 256 271 184 549 20 2 2 111 499 596 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 After
Mid-term bank facilities and RCF Extendible Short-term lines Bonds
Debt amortization schedule as at December 2017 (in €m) – Proforma**
* Defined as cash & cash equivalent plus undrawn credit lines as at 31 December 2017 ** Proforma including the effect of the USD 310M- financing executed at TSEB in January 2018
Average tenor : 3.5 years
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2020 Bond Rating Group rating 2023 Bond Rating Last change
BB/Stable BB/Stable BB BB BB BB Outlook stable reaffirmed on October 2017 Outlook stable reaffirmed on August 2017
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Volume of sugar beet processed in this campaign in Europe at record level (c. 24mt) on the back of higher contracted volumes and strong yields in France +35% in France and +16% in the Czech Republic Record campaign length Sugar volumes marketed in Europe should continue to increase markedly during H2 (vs. H2 16/17), in accordance with the agreements signed with our customers for the 2017/18 campaign year In a transition year for the European sugar industry, prices invoiced during H2 are expected to reflect the fall in market prices, given Current world sugar price levels, and The sharp increase in European production (end of quotas + favorable weather) Expected sharp increase of sugar export from Europe Export logistics platform in France Tereos Commodities capabilities, with 7 locations (France, Switzerland, Brazil, India, Singapore, Kenya and South Africa)
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Higher cane volumes processed in Brazil and Africa/Ocean Indian Brazil: record campaign over 20mt due to excellent operational performances Europe S&S: operational performance benefit from return to normal quality wheat in this year’s French crop International S&S: product portfolio development and continuous focus on
Performance improvement plan has already delivered savings above 3-year target of €100 million. Currently defining new goals over the next 3 years. Plan to create a single cooperative, Tereos SCA, through the merger and absorption of Tereos UCA and the upstream cooperatives, announced in December 2017 is currently under approval by cooperators at EGMs. The Group now anticipates an outlook for adjusted EBITDA for the FY 17/18, at a lower level than the €607 million recorded in 16/17, mostly due to lower Sugar Europe division results on the back of significant pressure on sugar prices in Europe since Oct/17, following liberalization of the EU sugar industry and higher yields due to favorable weather conditions.
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1950
FRANCE
1996
EUROPE
2012
ASIA
2000
BRAZIL AND AFRICA / INDIAN OCEAN
A successful international expansion
RAW MATERIALS
SUGARBEET SUGAR CANE CORN WHEAT POTATO CASSAVA ALFALFA
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Cereal Coops 12,000 growers Tereos UCA Tereos Internacional
c.18%
Simplified group organizational structure
Starch & Sweeteners Sugar Europe Sugar International Other minorities
c.3%
Delisting completed in Aug.16
Alexandre Luneau Strategic Marketing, R&D and Market Risks (joined Tereos in 2014) Patrizia Campos Strategic Investments and Development (joined Tereos in 2006) Alexis Duval Chief Executive Officer (joined Tereos in 2002) Yves Belegaud Europe Region (joined Tereos in 1994) Jacyr Costa Brazil Region (joined Tereos in 2006, worked from 1984 to 1997 at Guarani) Olivier Casanova Finance, Information Systems (joined Tereos in 2012)
Source: Tereos Note: (1) Bond issuance vehicle
Experienced management team Solid and stable shareholder structure
Acquisition of Petrobras’ stake in TSEB in Dec.16 TFG11
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The success of Tereos is built around our values, which remain consistent throughout our development:
PROXIMITY LONG-TERM COMMITMENT OPENNESS ENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT
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A dynamic R&D policy A CSR policy fully integrated
Agronomy Processing Technology Energy Nutrition & Health Green Chemistry Pharmaceuticals
+ Contribute to safe, healthy and sustainable diet + Valorise the whole of the agricultural raw material in a logic of cascading uses + Improve agricultural and industrial yields
6 strategic areas 3 objectives
Sustainable agriculture
50%
materials processed in 2015
Positive logistics and industry
46%
from renewable sources
48%
budget dedicated to research into nutrition
Nutrition
3
priority local development programs: health, education, environment
Local development
84%
to food quality and safety Product guarantees
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+99%
OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS USED
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GLUCOSES GLUCOSES GLUCOSES SUGAR SUGAR SUGAR
100% vegetal- based and natural solutions
INNOVATION INNOVATION INNOVATION MALTO DEXTRIN MALTO DEXTRIN MALTO DEXTRIN STEVIA STEVIA STEVIA ACTILIGHT FIBRE ACTILIGHT FIBRE ACTILIGHT FIBRE POLYOLS POLYOLS POLYOLS
FRUCTOSE FRUCTOSE FRUCTOSE
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benefits:
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P&L Tereos Group FY 2015/16 FY 2016/17 var vs PF* M€ PF* M€ %
Revenues 4,201 4,819 618 +14.7%
440 607 168 +38%
10.5% 12.6% EBIT (after price complements) 94 237 143 +153% EBIT margin 2.2% 4.9% Financial Result (103) (102) 1 (1%) Corporate income tax (36) (54) (18) +50% Share of profit of associates 6 25 20 +355% Net Results (40) 107 146 n.a.
* Proforma=IAS41, Revised on Biological assets
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Free Cash-Flow - M€ FY 2015/16 FY 2016/17 var. Tereos Group
439 607 168 Seasonality adjustment (1) 2 Cash Flow Hedge 39 32 (7) Net financial charges (101) (103) (2) Income tax paid (21) (29) (8) Cash Flow 355 508 153 Change in working capital 18 (115) (133) Cash Flow from operating activities 373 393 20 Maintenance & Renewal (216) (265) (49) Capex (93) (150) (56) Financial investments (146) (224) (78) Disposal of fixed and financial assets 44 11 (33) Dividends received 19 21 1 Cash Flow from (used in) investing activities (392) (607) (215) Cash Flow after investing activities (19) (214) (195) Dividends paid & price complement (24) (31) (7) Capital increases / other capital movements 67 16 (51) Cash Flow from (used in) transactions relating to equity 44 (15) (59) Free Cash-Flow 24 (229) (252)
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Assets in €m FY 2015/16 FY 2016/17 Non-current assets 4,183 4,396 Inventories 959 1,032 Accounts receivable 385 532 Other current assets 378 533 Cash and cash equivalent 381 572 Total assets 6,284 7,065 Liabilities in €m FY 2015/16 FY 2016/17 Equity attribuable to owners of the parent 1,320 1,668 Non-controlling interests 639 378 Total equity 1,959 2,047 Cooperative Capital 619 642 Cooperative Capital & total equity 2,578 2,689 Borrowings 2,460 2,997 Accounts payable 528 559 Other liabilities 718 821 Total Equity and Liabilities 6,284 7,065
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Tereos Group 2016/17 2016/17 2017/18 var vs proforma
Published Proforma (*)
M€
9M 9M 9M M€ %
Revenues
3 539 3 539 3 664 125 4%
Adjusted EBITDA (1)
436 439 452 13 3%
Adjusted EBITDA margin 12.3% 12.4% 12.3% Net debt (excluding related parties) 2 421 2 421 2 574 152 6% Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio 4.3x NC 4.1x Volumes sold Sugar & Sweeteners (k.tco) 4 815 4 815 4 952 137 3% Alcohol & Ethanol (k.m3) 984 984 1 012 27 3% Starch & Protein (k.tco) (**) 670 670 763 93 14% Energy (GWh) 1 003 1 003 962
(**) excluding sweeteners
(1) Adjusted EBITDA corresponds to net income before income tax, the share of income from equity affiliates, net financial income, depreciation and amortization, the impairment of goodwill, the gains resulting from acquisitions on favorable terms, and price supplements. It is also restated for changes in the fair value of financial instruments, inventories, and sale and purchase commitments, except for the portion of these items that relates to trading activities, fluctuations in the fair value of biological assets, the seasonal effect, and non-recurring items (primarily the disposal of subsidiaries). The seasonal effect corresponds to the temporary difference in the recognition of depreciation charges and price supplements in the Group’s financial statements according to IFRS and the Group’s management accounts. Adjusted EBITDA before price supplements is not a financial indicator defined as a measure of financial performance by IFRS, and may not be comparable to similar indicators referred to under the same name by other companies. Adjusted EBITDA is provided for additional information purposes, and cannot be considered as a substitute for operating income or operating cash flow. (*) The 2016/2017 pro forma column shows adjusted EBITDA on a restated basis, so as to take into account the change in fair value of derivatives, sales and purchases commitments, and inventories relating to trading activities.
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33% 52% 16%
Sugar Europe Sucre International Starch & Sweeteners Others (incl. Elim)
38% 26% 32% 3%
Sugar Europe Sucre International Starch & Sweeteners Others (incl. Elim)
(**) The 2016/2017 pro forma column shows adjusted EBITDA on a restated basis, so as to take into account the change in fair value of derivatives, sales and purchases commitments, and inventories relating to trading activities.
9M 17/18 Group Revenues Breakdown 9M 17/18 Group Adj. EBITDA Breakdown
Revenues 2016/17 2017/18 var M€
9M 9M M€ %
Sugar Europe 1 308 1 405 98 7% Sugar International 914 961 47 5% Starch & Sweeteners 1 116 1 173 57 5% Others (incl. Elim) 201 124
na Tereos Group 3 539 3 664 125 4%
Adj EBITDA 2016/17 2016/17 2017/18 var vs proforma
9M 9M 9M
M€
Published PF (**) M€ %
Sugar Europe 140 140 148 8 +6% Sugar International 211 211 233 22 10% Starch & Sweeteners 83 83 74
Others (incl. Elim) 1 4
na Tereos Group 436 439 453 13 3%
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120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 MATIF Wheat 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 FOB Europe Rotterdam Ethanol Price T2 (€/m3) 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Brazilian ESALQ hydrous ethanol fuel (BRL/m3)
Wheat prices influenced by ample production
Source: Bloomberg * Average 17/18 calculated from 1 April 2017 to 16 February 2018
European ethanol price
€/m3 €/t
Average 16/17: 163 Average 14/15: 187 Average 15/16: 173 Average 13/14: 204 Average 13/14: 569 Average 14/15: 477 Average 15/16: 563 Average 16/17: 521
Brazilian ethanol price
BRL/m3
1,600 1,200
Average 17/18*: 519 Average 17/18*: 164
February 2018