Telework, Co-working, and Relocation: How Will Economic and - - PDF document

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Telework, Co-working, and Relocation: How Will Economic and - - PDF document

7/24/2019 Telework, Co-working, and Relocation: How Will Economic and Technological Changes Alter Work Trips presented by presented to SCAG Michelle Bina, Cambridge Systematics co-authors Jingjing Zang (CS) Kevin Kane (SCAG) Anurag


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Michelle Bina, Cambridge Systematics

presented to presented by

Jingjing Zang (CS) Kevin Kane (SCAG) Anurag Komanduri (CS) Sneha Roy (CS)

co-authors

Telework, Co-working, and Relocation:

How Will Economic and Technological Changes Alter Work Trips

SCAG June 6, 2019

Background

Funding in California is tied to accurate measurement of GHG emissions Unique factors in the SCAG region

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Miles

Average Commute Distance

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The Past and the Future

3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Share of Workers (%) Year

SHARE OF WORKERS WHO WORKED AT HOME

Source: ACS data

New Elements

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Existing Data Teleworkers

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1 day 2 days 3 days 4 days 5 or more days

Share of Total Workers by Number of Days Telecommuting

CHTS NHTS (2009) NHTS (2017) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino Ventura Imperial Share of Workers who Telework, by County

Telecommuters Home Workers

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Teleworkers by Income

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% <$25K $25k-$50k $50k-$75k $75k-$100k $100k-$125k$125k-$150k$150k-$200k >$200k

Household Income Share of Workers that Telework

Telecommuter Home Worker

New Data on Teleworkers

Online Panel Survey

» 1,336 samples » Telecommuters » Home workers » All 6 counties

Questions

» Demographics » Reasons for teleworking » Commute characteristics » Relocation » Coworking

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Coworking Site Survey Coworking Spaces

4% of

Americans have worked in a coworking site.*

*Source: Pew Research Center.

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Why Work at a Coworking Site?

Closer to home/more work-less travel, 40% Quieter than working at home, 7% Prefer social environment, 20% Have access to business services, 21% Other, 12%

REASON FOR WORKING AT COWORKING SITE

What’s the Alternative?

Other company

  • ffice, 32%

Home, 57% Would get another job, 8% Other, 3%

COWORKING SITE ALTERNATIVE

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Coworker Travel Behavior

14.5 22.7

5 10 15 20 25 To Coworking Site To Other SoCal Office

Trip Distance (miles)

The Future of Work

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Gig Economy

Traditional Work Arrangements

  • Full or part-time wage

and salary workers

  • Self-employed or non-

Employers in own incorporated business

Non-Traditional Work Arrangements (Gig Workers)

  • Independent contractors
  • Seasonal workers
  • Temporary agency workers
  • On-call or contract workers
  • Contingent workers

Independent Work Arrangements (Independent Workers)

  • Online platform

workers

  • Informal arrangements

Automation Potential

Differences by industry and occupation

Healthcare, social assistance, education High skill, creativity, social intelligence Administrative, manufacturing, driving tasks

Growth Decline

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Automation Potential

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 Food Preparation and Sales Business and Finance Specialist Social Service and Office Support Construction, Repair, Transportation Farming, Production Education, Health Care Engineering, Computer, Legal

Automation Potential of Jobs by Occupation

Total SCAG Employment

Automation Potential

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Food Preparation and Sales Business and Finance Specialist Social Service and Office Support Construction, Repair, Transportation Farming, Production Education, Health Care Engineering, Computer, Legal

Automation Potential of Jobs by Occupation

Total SCAG Employment Brookings Frey Obsborne

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Automation Potential

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Food Preparation and Sales Business and Finance Specialist Social Service and Office Support Construction, Repair, Transportation Farming, Production Education, Health Care Engineering, Computer, Legal

Automation Potential of Jobs by Occupation

Total SCAG Employment Brookings Frey Obsborne Nesta

Drivers of Change

Economic Changes Travel Changes Technology

  • Automation
  • ICT

Demand

  • Consumer

preferences

  • Demographics

Job displacement Job creation Work arrangement Self-employment / Freelancing Change in jobs by industry and

  • ccupation

Change in Commute

  • Teleworking
  • Work from home

Trip Frequency & VMT by Location and Time of Day

  • Commute /

work-related travel

  • Other travel

Automation Potential Gig Economy

How Does This Fit Together?

Job Changes

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Thank You

mbina@camsys.com