TCC Virtual Meeting May 22, , 2020 Agenda for Todays Discussion - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TCC Virtual Meeting

May 22, , 2020

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Agenda for Today’s Discussion

• Upcoming impacts of COVID-19 on transportation

finances

• Potential Federal Infrastructure Stimulus
• TIP Administration and TIP Solicitation
• Other

Upcoming im impacts of COVID-19 on transportation fin inances

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Expected Im Impacts of COVID-19 on Transportation Fin inances

• Limited amount of “real world” transportation revenue

data available from the month of April makes precise estimates difficult

• Nation is in a recession: 14.7% unemployment rate

reported in April and 20% +/- forecast for the May report

• In response, State of Georgia is requiring a 14% budget cut

for state departments and agencies – no exceptions and applies to all areas of the state government

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Sales Tax Is Issues

• All 10 core ARC counties have passed the SPLOSTs / T-

SPLOSTs

• MARTA is heavily dependent on sales tax revenues:
• 55% of operating funds
• 85% of capital funds
• Sales tax receipts account for the majority of the match for

locally-sponsored federal-aid projects

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Sales Tax Receipts: 20 County MPO Region

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State Fis iscal Economist Presentation from May 7: COVID ID-19 Sale les Tax Im Impacts

http://www.house.ga.gov/budget/Documents/2 /2021_Fis iscalYear/2020_COVID_19_State_Econo mist_Budget_Update_Joint_Appropriations_May_7_2020.pdf

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Motor Fuel Excise Tax Challenges

• Georgia-related data for April has not been released,

making it challenging to estimate impacts

• However, Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) has a direct

relationship to fuel use and excise tax receipts

• Both the national and state apply an excise tax to fuel sold

per gallon:

• Georgia Excise Tax: 27.9 cents per gallon (gasoline)
• National Excise Tax: 18.3 cents per gallon (gasoline)

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U.S .S. Refin iners are Producing 36% Less Gasoli line Compared to Ja January ry Hig ighs

Sou Source: U.S. .S. En Energy In Information Adm dministr tration https://w /www.eia ia.g .gov/p /petroleum/supply/weekly/

1,767 1,825 1,710 1,558 1,664 1,631 1,514 1,519 1,558 1,618 1,449 1,517 1,387 1,205 1,223 1,168 1,243 1,171 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Jan 03, 2020 Jan 10, 2020 Jan 17, 2020 Jan 24, 2020 Jan 31, 2020 Feb 07, 2020 Feb 14, 2020 Feb 21, 2020 Feb 28, 2020 Mar 06, 2020 Mar 13, 2020 Mar 20, 2020 Mar 27, 2020 Apr 03, 2020 Apr 10, 2020 Apr 17, 2020 Apr 24, 2020 May 01, 2020

U.S. Refiner Weekly Production of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels per Day)

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Geo eorgia Veh ehicle Travel l Trends

NOTE: VMT esti timates s will ll not not match up up with th FH FHWA HP HPMS dat data due due to

• di

differing meth thodologies.. Sou Source: St Streetli light.com https://www.streetlightdata.com/VMT-monitor-by-county/#emergency- map-response

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Regional Travel Trends

NOTE: VMT esti timates s will ll not not match up up with th FH FHWA HP HPMS dat data due due to

• di

differing meth thodologies. . Sou Source: St Streetli light.com -https://www.streetlightdata.com/VMT-monitor-by-county/#emergency- map-response

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Travel Levels Compared to Normal - Frid iday, May 15

6% 0%

• 1% -6%
• 6%
• 10% -13%
• 15% -20% -20%
• 21%
• 23% -23%
• 39%
• 43%
• 46% -46%
• 48%
• 48%
• 58%
• 70%
• 60%
• 50%
• 40%
• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

0% 10%

Percentage of Travel Compared to Normal Levels – Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT)

% of Normal VMT

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Why is is monit itori ring travel l im important? D Durin ing the Last Recessio ion, Natio ional l VMT T did id not t Retu turn to 2008 Pre-Recessio ion Le Levels ls Until il 2015 (7 (7 years)

Sou Source: FH FHWA https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/20jantvt/page2.cfm 2,850,000 2,900,000 2,950,000 3,000,000 3,050,000 3,100,000 3,150,000 3,200,000 3,250,000 3,300,000 20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 Millions of VMT (Nationally)

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Im Impact of f COVID-19 on Transportation Fin inance Summary

• Both motor fuel excise receipts and sales tax receipts (SPLOSTs, T-

SPLOSTs, MARTA sales tax) will reflect large declines in the Georgia DOR reports for April, impacting local and state funding assumptions

• Duration of the economic downturn is unknown, but any downturn

through the summer and fall will create significant shortfalls in previously assumed funding forecasts

• Critical to continue to focus on delivering FY 2021 project phases on

schedule, if possible

• FY 2022 will be a challenging funding year so it is important to

authorize FY 2021 project phases on schedule – if at all possible

• Limited capacity to “roll-over” FY 2021 phases

Potential Federal In Infrastructure Stimulus

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Transportation Funding Support… What has th the federal government done th thus far?

March 27, 2020 – Congress passed the CARES Act:

• Transportation funding assistance

provided to airlines/airports and transit agencies

• Provided $25 billion for transit

agencies to support operations and assist with COVID-19 expenses

• Georgia received $521 million total
• Atlanta Region received $371 million

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May 12, 2020 – House released the HEROES Act:

• Expected vote on Friday in House
• Starting point for negotiations with Senate
• $500 billion in general-purpose aid for

state governments

• $375 billion in general-purpose aid for

cities and counties

• Provides $15.75 billion for transit

▪ Est. Funding Atlanta Region: $302 million

• $15 billion in FHWA formula funding

▪ Est. Georgia Funding: $482 million ▪ Still checking, but Atlanta region may receive direct allocation

• Increase in federal share to 100

percent (temporarily)

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Why a Federal Stimulus is Important to Local and State Governments… The Exp xperience from the ARRA Program

Sou Source: Transportation Weekly https://www.enotrans.org/

The he ARRA Pro rogra ram sh shif ifted the the mat atch for

• r fed

ederal-aid id pro projects fro from loc locals ls/states to the the fed edera ral l go government (10 (100% federa ral no no-match req requir ired), help helpin ing al allo low

• verall

ll tra transportation pr project

• u
• utlays to stay the

the sa same in instead of

• f dec

decre reasin ing

TIP IP Administration and TIP IP Solicitation

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TIP IP Solicitation Reminders

• Applications were received in 4th quarter of calendar

year 2019

• For FY 2020/2021:
• 50 Sponsors submitted 117 applications
• Requested $113 million in Surface Transportation Block Grant (STBG)

and the Transportation Alternatives Program (TAP)

• $22 million requested in CMAQ
• Funding amount available:
• $22.8 million in STBG
• $6.1 million in TAP
• $8.1 million in CMAQ

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STBG Fundin ing is is Lim imit ited Until il FY 2023

$56,747,352 $62,830,050 $26,560,647 $12,970,000 $5,000,000 $12,641,351 $9,041,267 $34,905,215 $51,456,209 $61,114,733 $10,168,000 $9,276,520 $21,304,931 $20,000,000 $20,000,000

$0 $10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000 $50,000,000 $60,000,000 $70,000,000 $80,000,000 $90,000,000 $100,000,000

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 STBG Programmed on Projects and Studies (Blue) and Available Balances for New Non-LCI Programming (Orange) and New LCI Programming (Gray) Currently Programmed on Studies/Projects Project Funds Available (non LCI) Project Funds Available for LCI

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CMAQ Fundin ing Is Is Lim imit ited in in FY 2021 and FY 2022

$20,897,085 $18,451,621 $400,000 $3,200,000 $0 $8,102,915 $10,548,379 $28,600,000 $25,800,000 $29,000,000

$0 $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 $30,000,000 $35,000,000

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 CMAQ Programmed Funding (Blue) and Available Balances (Orange) Currently Programmed Funds Available

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TAP Funding Has Sig ignif ificant Avail ilabil ility ($6-$7 Milli illion) Through FY 2025 – Wit ith the Exception of FY 2022

$1,508,000 $4,470,669 $6,149,120 $3,186,451 $7,657,120 $7,657,120 $7,657,120

$0 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $7,000,000 $8,000,000 $9,000,000

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 TAP Programmed Funding (Blue) and Available Balances (Orange) Currently Programmed Funds Available

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TIP IP Administration and TIP Solicitation Next xt Steps

• Focus initial recommendations only on FY 2021 due to the

uncertainty of the project delivery environment

• Revisit making recommendations for FY 2022 and beyond

later in the year - once financial conditions and project delivery stabilizes

• Assess the potential impact of a federal infrastructure

stimulus on the TIP and adjust project programming where possible

Other Items and Announcements?

Adjourn