TCC Virtual Meeting May 22, , 2020
Agenda for Today’s Discussion • Upcoming impacts of COVID-19 on transportation finances • Potential Federal Infrastructure Stimulus • TIP Administration and TIP Solicitation • Other 2
Upcoming im impacts of COVID-19 on transportation fin inances
Expected Im Impacts of COVID-19 on Transportation Fin inances • Limited amount of “real world” transportation revenue data available from the month of April makes precise estimates difficult • Nation is in a recession: 14.7% unemployment rate reported in April and 20% +/- forecast for the May report • In response, State of Georgia is requiring a 14% budget cut for state departments and agencies – no exceptions and applies to all areas of the state government 4
Sales Tax Is Issues • All 10 core ARC counties have passed the SPLOSTs / T- SPLOSTs • MARTA is heavily dependent on sales tax revenues: • 55% of operating funds • 85% of capital funds • Sales tax receipts account for the majority of the match for locally-sponsored federal-aid projects 5
Sales Tax Receipts: 20 County MPO Region 6
State Fis iscal Economist Presentation from May 7: COVID ID-19 Sale les Tax Im Impacts http://www.house.ga.gov/budget/Documents/2 /2021_Fis iscalYear/2020_COVID_19_State_Econo 7 mist_Budget_Update_Joint_Appropriations_May_7_2020.pdf
Motor Fuel Excise Tax Challenges • Georgia-related data for April has not been released, making it challenging to estimate impacts • However, Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) has a direct relationship to fuel use and excise tax receipts • Both the national and state apply an excise tax to fuel sold per gallon: o Georgia Excise Tax: 27.9 cents per gallon (gasoline) o National Excise Tax: 18.3 cents per gallon (gasoline) 8
U.S .S. Refin iners are Producing 36% Less Gasoli line Compared to Ja January ry Hig ighs U.S. Refiner Weekly Production of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels per Day) 1,767 1,825 1,710 2,000 1,558 1,664 1,631 1,514 1,519 1,558 1,618 1,449 1,517 1,387 1,500 1,205 1,223 1,168 1,243 1,171 1,000 500 0 Jan 03, Jan 10, Jan 17, Jan 24, Jan 31, Feb 07, Feb 14, Feb 21, Feb 28, Mar 06, Mar 13, Mar 20, Mar 27, Apr 03, Apr 10, Apr 17, Apr 24, May 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 01, 2020 Source: U.S. Sou .S. En Energy In Information Adm dministr tration https://w /www.eia ia.g .gov/p /petroleum/supply/weekly/ 9
Geo eorgia Veh ehicle Travel l Trends NOTE: VMT esti timates s will ll not not match up up with th FH FHWA HP HPMS dat data due due to o di differing meth thodologies . . Sou Source: St Streetli light.com https://www.streetlightdata.com/VMT-monitor-by-county/#emergency- map-response 10
Regional Travel Trends NOTE: VMT esti timates s will ll not not match up up with th FH FHWA HP HPMS dat data due due to o di differing meth thodologies . . Sou Source: St Streetli light.com -https://www.streetlightdata.com/VMT-monitor-by-county/#emergency- map-response 11
Travel Levels Compared to Normal - Frid iday, May 15 Percentage of Travel Compared to Normal Levels – Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) 10% 6% 0% 0% -10% -1% -6% -6% -20% -10% -13% -21% -15% -20% -20% -30% -23% -23% -40% -50% -39% -43% -48% -60% -46% -46% -48% -58% -70% % of Normal VMT 12
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Why is is monit itori ring travel l im important? D Durin ing the Last Recessio ion, Natio ional l VMT T did id not t Retu turn to 2008 Pre-Recessio ion Le Levels ls Until il 2015 (7 (7 years) 3,300,000 Millions of VMT (Nationally ) 3,250,000 3,200,000 3,150,000 3,100,000 3,050,000 3,000,000 2,950,000 2,900,000 2,850,000 20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 Source: FH Sou FHWA https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/20jantvt/page2.cfm 15
Im Impact of f COVID-19 on Transportation Fin inance Summary • Both motor fuel excise receipts and sales tax receipts (SPLOSTs, T- SPLOSTs, MARTA sales tax) will reflect large declines in the Georgia DOR reports for April, impacting local and state funding assumptions • Duration of the economic downturn is unknown, but any downturn through the summer and fall will create significant shortfalls in previously assumed funding forecasts • Critical to continue to focus on delivering FY 2021 project phases on schedule, if possible • FY 2022 will be a challenging funding year so it is important to authorize FY 2021 project phases on schedule – if at all possible • Limited capacity to “roll - over” FY 2021 phases 16
Potential Federal In Infrastructure Stimulus
Transportation Funding Support… What has th the federal government done th thus far? March 27, 2020 – Congress passed the CARES Act: o Transportation funding assistance provided to airlines/airports and transit agencies o Provided $25 billion for transit agencies to support operations and assist with COVID-19 expenses o Georgia received $521 million total o Atlanta Region received $371 million 18
May 12, 2020 – House released the HEROES Act: o $15 billion in FHWA formula funding o Expected vote on Friday in House ▪ Est. Georgia Funding: $482 million o Starting point for negotiations with Senate ▪ Still checking, but Atlanta region o $500 billion in general-purpose aid for may receive direct allocation state governments o Increase in federal share to 100 o $375 billion in general-purpose aid for percent (temporarily) cities and counties o Provides $15.75 billion for transit ▪ Est. Funding Atlanta Region: $302 million 19
Why a Federal Stimulus is Important to Local and State Governments… The Exp xperience from the ARRA Program The he ARRA Pro rogra ram sh shif ifted the the mat atch for or fed ederal-aid id projects fro pro from loc locals ls/states to the the fed edera ral l go government (10 (100% federa ral no no-match req requir ired), help helpin ing al allo low overall ll tra transportation pr project ou outlays to stay the the sa same in instead of of dec decre reasin ing Sou Source: Transportation Weekly 20 https://www.enotrans.org/
TIP IP Administration and TIP IP Solicitation
TIP IP Solicitation Reminders Applications were received in 4 th quarter of calendar • year 2019 • For FY 2020/2021: o 50 Sponsors submitted 117 applications o Requested $113 million in Surface Transportation Block Grant (STBG) and the Transportation Alternatives Program (TAP) o $22 million requested in CMAQ • Funding amount available: o $22.8 million in STBG o $6.1 million in TAP o $8.1 million in CMAQ 22
STBG Fundin ing is is Lim imit ited Until il FY 2023 STBG Programmed on Projects and Studies (Blue) and Available Balances for New Non-LCI Programming (Orange) and New LCI Programming (Gray) $100,000,000 $90,000,000 $80,000,000 $9,276,520 $20,000,000 $10,168,000 $20,000,000 $21,304,931 $70,000,000 $9,041,267 $12,641,351 $60,000,000 $50,000,000 $34,905,215 $40,000,000 $51,456,209 $61,114,733 $62,830,050 $30,000,000 $56,747,352 $20,000,000 $26,560,647 $10,000,000 $12,970,000 $5,000,000 $0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Currently Programmed on Studies/Projects Project Funds Available (non LCI) Project Funds Available for LCI 23
CMAQ Fundin ing Is Is Lim imit ited in in FY 2021 and FY 2022 CMAQ Programmed Funding (Blue) and Available Balances (Orange) $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $8,102,915 $10,548,379 $20,000,000 $25,800,000 $15,000,000 $28,600,000 $29,000,000 $20,897,085 $10,000,000 $18,451,621 $5,000,000 $3,200,000 $400,000 $0 $0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Currently Programmed Funds Available 24
TAP Funding Has Sig ignif ificant Avail ilabil ility ($6-$7 Milli illion) Through FY 2025 – Wit ith the Exception of FY 2022 TAP Programmed Funding (Blue) and Available Balances (Orange) $9,000,000 $8,000,000 $7,000,000 $3,186,451 $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,149,120 $4,000,000 $7,657,120 $7,657,120 $7,657,120 $3,000,000 $4,470,669 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,508,000 $0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Currently Programmed Funds Available 25
TIP IP Administration and TIP Solicitation Next xt Steps • Focus initial recommendations only on FY 2021 due to the uncertainty of the project delivery environment • Revisit making recommendations for FY 2022 and beyond later in the year - once financial conditions and project delivery stabilizes • Assess the potential impact of a federal infrastructure stimulus on the TIP and adjust project programming where possible 26
Other Items and Announcements?
Adjourn
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