Target Scenarios Tatsuya HANAOKA Center for Social and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ℃ Target Scenarios

Tatsuya HANAOKA Center for Social and Environmental Systems National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan

The 22nd AIM International Workshop Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES 9-10 December 2016

MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)

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Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.

Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis ・Analysis on regional AQ change

・Development of emission inventory ・Inversion algorithms of emission estimation

Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios

・Global socio-economic scenarios ・National & regional emissions scenarios ・Urban & household emissions AQ assessment

Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate & environment

・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG ・Assessment of health, agriculture, water cycle, sea level rise

SLCP emissions scenarios Improved emission inventory Feedback of impacts Assessment of activities/policies

Regional Emission Inventories and Chemical Transfer Model

Integrated Assessment Model (AIM)

Climate and Environment Model

Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia AIM/Enduse model Socio-economical & emissions scenario Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation

Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)

MDG・SDG・Future Earth

Stakeholders Policy makers

Society

Information transmission System utilization CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANET Proposal and assessment of climate and air pollution policies

Regional strategy

⇅

Global strategy

Science

Experiment setup Database development Metric definitions Model improvement

REAS Inventory SLCP, AP, GHG emissions Based on SSP scenario

MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)

2

Global model AIM/CGE Global model AIM/Enduse National model AIM/Enduse Household Model Local Air pollution model

Theme3

• Env. & Climate

Impacts

Global emissions scenarios on LLGHG・SLCP

Theme 1 Emission inventory Theme 4 Synthesis system

Local emissions scenarios on LLGHG・SLCP National emissions Scenarios on LLGHG・SLCP Air pollution management technologies Air pollution management policies and events at national/local scale

Information for negotiation on GHG reductions

• Env. & climate

Policy in Japan Assessment of

• Env. & climate

policies in Asia

Green：Relation to other Them Orange：Relation to Env. policies

Improvement of Enduse (Local activities & Pollution Management Technologies)

Assessment of actions & policies Future scenarios Improved inventory

Assessment of mitigation costs & climate change impacts Emissions scenarios

• n LLGHG & SLCP

Future socio- economic scenarios

• Env. & Climate

Impacts

Socio-economic scenario considering climate & Env. Impact

AIM models Future Scenarios Research goals

Sub-theme (2) Sub-theme (1) Sub-theme (3)

Challenges of S-12 Theme 2

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• 1. Estimating future (energy & non-energy ) service demands

based on new socio-economic scenarios (i.e. SSPs: Shared- Socioecnomic Pathways) considering climate change and environmental impacts

• 2. indicating emissions scenarios of Long-lived GHGs(LLGHG) and

Short lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) and air pollutants, based

• n new service demands estimations
• 3. Evaluating co-benefits of LLGHG mitigation measures and SLCP

reduction measures, and analyzing regional characteristics in detail, in a manner consistent with long-term global scenarios such as 2℃ target.

• 4. Exploring the appropriate (optimal?) balance among LLGHGs

measures, SLCPs measures and air pollutants measures from the viewpoint of health benefits and climate benefits.

Today’s topics

Characteristics of AIM/Enduse[Global] model

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◆ Bottom-up type model with detailed technology selection framework

with optimizing the total system cost

◆ Recursive dynamic model (=Calculating year by year) ◆ Assessing technological transition over time ◆ Analyzing effect of policies such as carbon/energy tax, subsidy,

regulation and so on.

◆ Target Gas: both Long-Lived GHGs and Short-Lived Climate Pollutants

CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, CFCs, HCFCs, SO2, NOx, BC, etc

◆ Target Sectors : multiple sectors

power generation sector, industry sector, residential sector, commercial sector, transport sector, agriculture sector, municipal solid waste sector, fugitive emissions sector, F-gas sector

(each of these can be further disaggregated into sub-sectors)

AIM/Enduse[Global] - Regional Classification, Target Gases and Sectors -

5 Sector Sub sectors whose mitigation actions are considered in Enduse model (other subsectors are treated as scenario) Power generation Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant, Renewable (Wind, Biomass, PV), Nuclear, Hydro, Geothermal, Heat Industry Iron and steel，Cement , Other industries （Boiler, motor etc） Transportation Passenger vehicle, Truck，Bus，Ship, Aircraft，Passenger train，Freight train (except for pipeline transport and international transport) Residential & Commercial Cooling, Heating, Hot-water, Cooking, Lighting, Refrigerator, TV, Other equipments Agriculture Livestock rumination, Manure management, Paddy field, Cropland MSW Municipal solid waste, Waste water management Fugitive Fugitive emission from fuel production Fgas emissions By-product of HCFC-22, Refrigerant，Aerosol, Foams，Solvent, Etching，Aluminum production, Insulation gas, others.

CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 CFCs HCFCs SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 BC OC OC CO NH3 NMVOC Hg Fuel combustion ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Industrial process ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Agriculture ✔ ✔ ✔ Waste ✔ Fuel mining ✔ Others ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Emission factors can be set by energy, by sector and by region over time. Settings on technology options are the same, too

World 32 regions 12 Asian regions

Seeking for Emissions Pathways of GHGs, SLCPs and Aps

• climate impacts of reducing SO2 and BC -

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 From the viewpoint of health impacts, SO2 should be reduced largely.  From the viewpoint of climate impacts, due to local cooling effects, SO2 should not be reduced drastically.  From the viewpoint of health impacts, BC should be reduced largely.  From the viewpoint of climate impacts, BC should be reduced largely.  From the viewpoint of climate impacts, due to local cooling effects, OC should not be reduced drastically. If low-carbon actions toward 2 ℃ target are taken,  SO2 will be reduced largely, by necessity  Not only BC but also OC will be reduced simultaneously.

Seeking for Emissions Pathways of GHGs, SLCPs and Aps

• climate impacts of reducing NOx -

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 From the viewpoint of health impacts, NOx should be reduced largely.  From the viewpoint of climate impacts, due to chemical reactions toward increasing atmospheric CH , NOx should not be reduced drastically.

Concepts of future scenarios under S12 project

• Seeking for Balance of LLGHGs, SLCPs, air pollutants emissions -

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① Targeting at achieving the 2 degree target, as the COP21 decided ② From the viewpoint of climate impacts of positive radiative forcing, LLGHGs (CO2, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) and SLCPs (CH4, BC) should be reduced largely. ③ From the viewpoint of health impacts, air pollutants (PM2.5, SO2, BC, etc) should be reduced to a high enough level . ④ From the viewpoint of climate impacts of negative radiative forcing, some air pollutants (SO2, OC) are preferable to be reduced only to some extent.

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1] 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 PM2.5 emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1] 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 CO2 emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

Present 2010 Present 2010 Present 2010 Future 2050 Future 2050

？ ？ ？

Future 2050

Example of diagnosis figures

S12 original scenarios for collaborative research under the S12 project

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Scenario Overview ① Frozen Technology Technologies and emissions factors are frozen in the base year. Thus, as the service demand increase, all emissions will also increase. ② Reference (=SSP2) Reference scenario that future mitigation polices & technologies are in line with the current trends ③ BC&PM Max Strengthening end of pipe measures for drastically reducing BC(&OC)&PM only ④ SO2 Max Strengthening end of pipe measures for drastically reducing SO2 only ⑤ SO2 Mid Taking end of pipe measures for reducing a certain amount of SO2 （健康影響の軽減と地域的な冷却効果について、シナリオ④との比較が目的） ⑥ NOx Max Strengthening end of pipe measures for drastically reducing NOx only ⑦ NOx Mid Taking end of pipe measures for reducing a certain amount of NOx （健康影響の軽減と大気中CH4増による気候影響について、シナリオ⑥との比較が目的） ⑧ 2 degree ALLMax (cobenefit 1) Mixing scenario③、④、⑥ and Low carbon measures toward 2℃ target, by taking into account cobenefits of reducing SLCPs and air pollutants ⑨ 2 degree ALLMid (cobenefit 2) Mixing scenario ③、⑤、⑦ and Low carbon measures toward 2℃ target, by taking into account cobenefits of reducing SLCPs and air pollutants （健康影響の軽減、地域的な冷却効果、大気中CH4増による気候影響について、end of pipe 対策や低炭素対策による共便益効果のシナリオ⑧との比較が目的）

To evaluate reductions of health impacts due to air pollutant measures and reductions of climate impacts due to GHG & SLCP measures, S-12 project sets the following scenarios

20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NOx Emission (TgNOx)

Asia

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NOx Emission (TgNOx)

World

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 SO2 Emission (TgSO2)

Asia

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 SO2 Emission (TgSO2)

World

EDGER4.2 2deg_AllMax NOxMax SO2Max FznEF RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 HTAP NOxMid SO2Mid BCPM Ref REAS

Results of S12 scenarios – example of global and Asia-

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Results of S12 scenarios – example of global and Asia-

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 19801990200020102020203020402050 BC Emission (TgBC)

Asia

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 19801990200020102020203020402050 BC Emission (TgBC)

World

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 19801990200020102020203020402050 PM10 Emission (TgPM10)

Asia

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 19801990200020102020203020402050 PM10 Emission (TgPM10)

World

5 10 15 20 25 19801990200020102020203020402050 PM2.5 Emission (TgPM2.5)

Asia

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 19801990200020102020203020402050 PM2.5 Emission (TgPM2.5)

World

EDGER4.2 2deg_AllMax NOxMax SO2Max FznEF RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 HTAP NOxMid SO2Mid BCPM Ref REAS

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Results of S12 scenarios – example of global and Asia-

2deg_AllMax NOxMax SO2Max FznEF NOxMid SO2Mid BCPM Ref

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1] 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 PM2.5 emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1] 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 CO2 emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1] 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 CO emission [value in 2010 = 1] NOx emission [value in 2010 =1] 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 VOC emission [value in 2010 = 1] NOx emission [value in 2010 =1]

To reach “Hatching Area” in 2050, it is necessary to further consider of combinations of end-of-pipe measures and their intensity as well as combinations of energy mix constraints and low-carbon measures

Overview of additional Scenario Settings

• Seeking for balance of LLGHGs, SLCPs, air pollutants emissions -

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 Changing the settings of carbon taxes in order to discuss low-carbon society  Changing the levels of air-pollutant control measures in order to discuss local air quality  Changing energy policy choices: one of examples of discussing cobenefits & tradeoffs. ① Promoting drastic energy shift (from high-carbon fossil fuel to less-carbon intensive fuels or renewable energies) rather than coal & biomass power plant with CCS ② Allowing coal & biomass power plant with CCS rather than drastic energy shift.

Scenario name 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Air pollution measures Energy policy Reference: SSP2 SSP2 level (i.e. BaU) SSP2 level (i.e. BaU) T200 50 100 150 200 SSP2 level Promoting energy shift rather than coal & biomass power with CCS T400 100 200 300 400 SSP2 level Promoting energy shift rather than coal & biomass power with CCS T400ccs 100 200 300 400 SSP2 level Allowing coal & biomass power with CCS rather than drastic energy shift T400ccs_BCPM 100 200 300 400 SSP2 level +BCPM measure high Allowing coal & biomass power with CCS rather than drastic energy shift T400ccs_ALL 100 200 300 400 SSP2 level + all air pollutant measure high Allowing coal & biomass power with CCS rather than drastic energy shift

[Unit: US$/tCO2 eq]

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GHG emission [GtCO2e]

Global Emissions pathways in this study

• comparing with a set of well-known GHG emissions pathways by the UNEP Gap Report -

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2℃ median 2.5℃ median 3℃ median 3.5℃ median 4℃ median Ref T200 T400

 The reference scenario corresponds to the level of 3.5℃ increase pathway.  To achieve the 2℃ target, future carbon price will be much higher than the current levels, around 400 US$/tCO2eq in 2050

Note 1) Dashed lines show median values in the range of well-known GHG emissions pathways with a "likely" (greater than 66%) chance of staying below 2℃, 2.5℃, 3℃, 3.5℃, 4℃, compared to pre-industrial levels reported by UNEP Gap Report

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 PM2.5 Emission (TgPM2.5)

World

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2 Emission (TgCO2)

World

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 BC Emission (TgBC)

World

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CH4 Emission (TgCH4)

World

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NOx Emission (TgNOx)

World

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 SO2 Emission (TgSO2)

World

Emissions pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air pollutants

• compared to emission inventory (EDGER, REAS, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6 -

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EDGER4.2 T400 T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM HTAP Ref REAS T400ccs_All RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6

Equivalent to 2℃ target

How to interpret 2℃ emissions scenarios in this study

• example of PM2.5 in Asia

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5 10 15 20 25 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 PM2.5 Emission (TgPM2.5)

Asia

Cobenefits by introducing low carbon measures Effects of introducing dust collecting equipment Emission rebound effects (i.e. trade-off) by allowing coal plant with CCS and biomass power plant with CCS rather than promoting the shift to less-carbon insensitive

• r non-fossil fuel energies

 Due to low carbon measures, there are large cobenefits of reducing air pollutants.  However, if only considering low carbon measures, there are tradeoffs (i.e. emission rebound effects) from the viewpoint of nonCO2 emissions  Combinations of low carbon measures and nonCO2 measures are important

T400ccs T400 T400ccs_BCPM HTAP Ref REAS

Seeking for balanced emissions pathways

• reduction ratio among GHGs, SLCPs and Air pollutions -

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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 PM2.5 emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 CO2 emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

T400 T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_All Ref

How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls

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T400 T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_All Ref

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

Cobenefits of low carbon measures

How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls

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T400 T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_All Ref

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

Cobenefits of low carbon measures

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

Trade-offs by allowing coal & biomass power plant with CCS rather than promoting the shift to less-carbon insensitive

• r non-fossil fuel energies

How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls

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T400 T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_All Ref

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

Effects of introducing dust collecting equipment

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

Cobenefits of low carbon measures

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

Trade-offs by allowing coal & biomass power plant with CCS rather than promoting the shift to less-carbon insensitive

• r non-fossil fuel energies

How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls

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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

T400 T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_All Ref

Effect of introducing desulfurization equipment Cobenefits of low carbon measures & effects of air pollution controls Effects of introducing dust collecting equipment

How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls

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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

T400 T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_All Ref

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 BC emission [value in 2010 = 1] SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

Cobenefits of low carbon measures Trade-offs by allowing coal & biomass power plant with CCS rather than promoting the shift to less-carbon insensitive

• r non-fossil fuel energies

Effects of introducing dust collecting equipment Effect of introducing desulfurization equipment Cobenefits of low carbon measures & effects of air pollution controls

MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)

23

Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.

Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis ・Analysis on regional AQ change

・Development of emission inventory ・Inversion algorithms of emission estimation

Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios

・Global socio-economic scenarios ・National & regional emissions scenarios ・Urban & household emissions AQ assessment

Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate & environment

・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG ・Assessment of health, agriculture, water cycle, sea level rise

SLCP emissions scenarios Improved emission inventory Feedback of impacts Assessment of activities/policies

Regional Emission Inventories and Chemical Transfer Model

Integrated Assessment Model (AIM)

Climate and Environment Model

Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia AIM/Enduse model Socio-economical & emissions scenario Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation

Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)

MDG・SDG・Future Earth

Stakeholders Policy makers

Society

Information transmission System utilization CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANET Proposal and assessment of climate and air pollution policies

Regional strategy

⇅

Global strategy

Science

Experiment setup Database development Metric definitions Model improvement

Development of simple evaluation tool for analyzing emissions and reductions regarding GHGs, SLCPs & air pollutants Theme 4

TM-ESS tool

• Technology Matrix and Emission SnapShot Tool -

24

By changing mitigation options diffusion ratio arbitrarily, you can analyze change of reduction amounts and make a diagnosis about balancing reductions and directions

http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html

ご清聴ありがとうございました

AIM/Enduse[Global] and element models

26

Cement production Value added

• f 2nd industry

Agricultural production Fluorocarbon emission Transport volume (Freight) Energy service (Residential) Municipal solid waste generation Energy service (Commercial) Transportation Demand Model Household Lifestyle Model Municipal Solid Waste Model Cement Production Model Building sector Energy Supply sector Socio-economic scenario Agricultural Prod & Trade model Fluorocarbon Emission Model Agriculture sector Model Database Variable Solid waste management sector Transport volume (Passenger) Crude steel production Steel Production & Trade Model Gas fuel Heat Liquid fuel Solid fuel Hydrogen Energy balance Primary energy Energy price Emission factor Energy DB Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Emissions Energy mining sector Gas Coal Oil

Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)

Macro Economic frame Model Population & Household number GDP & Sector value added

Macro-economic model

Iron and steel sector Cement sector Other industries sector Transport sector Fluorocarbon sector Energy Resource DB Cost Lifetime Technology DB Efficiency Diffusion rate

Service demand models

Electricity

Roles of S12 Theme2 and collaboration with Theme 1 & 3

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Emission concentration Emission Inventory Database

CO2 CH4 N2O HFC PFC SF6 CFC HCFC SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 BC OC CO NH3 NM VOC Enduse Global 32 regions 2010

• 2050

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ REAS v2.2 Asia 29 regions 2000

• 2010

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ EDGER v4.2 Global 234 regions 1970

• 2008

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ HTAP v2 Global 17 regions 2010 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ RCP Global 6 regions 2000

• 2100

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Theme 1 REAS v2 (Asia)

Global model AIM/Enduse

HTAP v2 (Global) EDGER v4.2 (Global) RCP (Global) GAINS (Global) Theme3

• Env. & Climate

Impacts

AIM/Downscale MAGICC 6 Emission (0.5×0.5) Emission (32 region) Emission Factors Database IPCC USEPA AP42 EMEP-EEA2013 GAINS Streets, et al Bond, et al Lei, et al Cao, et al Zhao, et al Supporting Reference and so on

Scenario Dimensions – SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) -

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(O’Neill, 2012) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000)

SSPs SRES

Previous representative scenarios (until IPCC AR4) Latest representative scenarios (toward IPCC AR6)

See details about quantitative data and qualitative stories https:/ s://sec /secure re.iiasa .iiasa.ac.a .ac.at/ t/web-apps/ene/Ssp s/ene/SspDb Db/d /dsd sd?Action=h Action=htmlp tmlpage&pag &page=abou =about

Population and GDP in Asia in SSP scenarios

29 29

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1990 2010 2030 2050

GDP per capita (1000 US$2005/person)

Japan

2 4 6 8 10 12

1990 2010 2030 2050

GDP per capita (1000 US$2005/person)

India

5 10 15 20 25 30

1990 2010 2030 2050

GDP per capita (1000 US$2005/person)

China

2 4 6 8 10

1990 2010 2030 2050

GDP (Trillion US$2005)

Japan

5 10 15 20

1990 2010 2030 2050

GDP (Trillion US$2005)

India

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1990 2010 2030 2050

GDP (Trillion US$2005)

China

80 90 100 110 120 130 140

1990 2010 2030 2050

Population (million)

Japan

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

1990 2010 2030 2050

Population (million)

India

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500

1990 2010 2030 2050

Population (million)

China

Historical SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

1990 2010 2030 2050

GDP per capita (1000 US$2005/person)

ASEAN

2 4 6 8 10

1990 2010 2030 2050

GDP (Trillion US$2005)

ASEAN

400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

1990 2010 2030 2050

Population (million)

ASEAN

POP GDP

GDP/POP

Characteristics of socio-economic dynamics are different depending on countries & scenarios They will influence on future estimations of service demands, energy consumption,etc.

AIM/Enduse[Global] model and element models

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Building sector Energy Supply sector Agriculture sector Solid waste management sector Gas fuel Heat Liquid fuel Solid fuel Hydrogen Energy balance Primary energy Energy price Emission factor Energy DB Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Emissions Energy mining sector Gas Coal Oil Iron and steel sector Cement sector Other industries sector Transport sector Fluorocarbon sector Energy Resource DB Cost Lifetime Technology DB Efficiency Diffusion rate Electricity

Select technologies to satisfy future service demands by sector and to balance supply and demand, under various constraints & under minimizing total system costs

By energy, sector and country, we can set various constraints such as  Technology in the base year  Energy balance in the base year  Technology diffusion rate  Speed of technology diffusion rate  Technology constraints  Energy constraints  Speed of energy efficiency improvement  Technology cost  Induced technology costs etc

Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)

Solar Wind Biomass

Overview of mitigation measures

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Four major groups of mitigation measures on GHG and air pollutants ① End-of-pipe mitigation measures

e.g：desulfurization equipment [=SO2 reduction], denitrification equipment [=NOx reduciton], dust-collecting equipment [=BC, PM reduction], fertilization management in agriculture [=N2O reduciton], manure management [=CH4, N2O reduction], waste management [=CH4 reduction]

② Improvement of quality of fuels

e.g.：shifting from high sulfur-content fuel to low-sulfur content fuel [=SO2 reduction]

③ Improvement of energy efficiency

e.g.：Introduction of high-energy efficient technologies and reduction of energy consumption [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction], Low-carbon power in the supply side and electrification in the demand [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction]

④ Drastic energy shifting

e.g.：shifting from coal to renewables or natural gas [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction], diffusion

• f hydrogen-fuel from renewables [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction]

Effective for reducing (a) specific gas(es) Effective for reducing a specific gas Effective for reducing multiple gases Effective for reducing multiple gases

various mitigation measures are available for promoting energy efficiency on both the demand and supply side, as well as reducing air pollutant by removal devices.