TalkTalk Interim Results FY17 Summary Strong H1 performance: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TalkTalk Interim Results FY17 Summary Strong H1 performance: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TalkTalk Interim Results FY17 Summary Strong H1 performance: EBITDA 130m (+44% year-on-year); interim dividend maintained at 5.29p Material improvements in customer experience: Q2 churn reduced to 1.43% (Q216: 1.58%) High levels


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SLIDE 1

TalkTalk Interim Results FY17

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SLIDE 2

Summary

 Strong H1 performance: EBITDA £130m (+44% year-on-year); interim dividend maintained at 5.29p  Material improvements in customer experience: Q2 churn reduced to 1.43% (Q216: 1.58%)  High levels of re-contracting following launch of Fixed Low Price Plans  Compelling value offer and further improvements in service to drive a return to growth in FY18  York fibre to the premise trial to be extended to whole city beginning in Spring 2017  FY EBITDA expected to be towards the lower end of our £320m-£360m guidance  Final dividend expected to be in line with FY16 and broadly covered by operating FCF

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SLIDE 3

H1 Business review

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SLIDE 4

Q2 performance

Churn significantly lower year-on-year; lower recruitment activity ahead of new proposition launch

4
  • H1 revenue -1.1% year-on-year in line with expectations
  • Q2 -1.7% year-on-year
  • Q2 churn significantly better year on year (Q216: 1.58%)
  • Consequence of lower broadband and TV recruitment activity in Q2

ahead of launch of new pricing and propositions

  • Continued growth in Fibre and Mobile
Q2 Q1 Revenue £455m £447m On-net net adds
  • 20k
  • 9k
On-net churn 1.4% 1.4% Fibre net adds +40k +36k Mobile net adds +46k +48k TV net adds
  • 33k
  • 23k
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SLIDE 5

H1 performance

5 Leverage YoY Revenue Growth £697m £188m £670m £208m £912m £902m H1 FY16 H1 FY17
  • 3.9%
  • 1.1%
+10.6% On Net Corporate FY16 H1 FY17 £27m Off Net £24m
  • 11.1%
2.8x 2.6x EBITDA Dividend per share H1 FY16 H1 FY17 £90m £130m 9.9% Margin 14.4% Margin 5.29p H1 FY16 5.29p H1 FY17 +44.4% H1 FY16 2.8x
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SLIDE 6

Broadband Base

Stabilising through strong wholesale performance and reducing churn in retail base

6 Wholesale Broadband Base 737k 771k 830k 899k H2’15 H1’16 H2’16 H1’17 Wholesale
  • Continued consistently strong growth in profitable business
Retail
  • H116: decision to disconnect 72k non-paying customers
  • H216: impacted by 95k due to the cyber attack
  • H117 slowed gross retail connections before launch of Fixed
Low Price Plans
  • Churn coming down significantly and quality of base rising
  • Expect retail base to stabilise and return to growth in FY18
3,440k H2’15 3,327k H1’16 3,166k H2’16 3,068k H1’17 Retail Broadband Base On Net Churn 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY16 FY17
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SLIDE 7

Continuing strong Mobile and Fibre take-up

7

% base Mobile % base Fibre % base TV

21% 30 73 142 207 308 479 578 704 780 H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16 H2'16 H1'17 230 557 917 1,217 1,414 1,439 1,389 1,333 H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16 H2'16 H1'17 37% 22% 117 175 236 284 348 464 596 699 793 H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16 H2'16 H1'17
  • Strong take-up of TV App by customers who don’t have a
set top box
  • Flexible viewing on multiple devices is driving greater
engagement and higher Net Promoter Scores
  • Completed multi-year renewal of full Sky content
  • New propositions driving good attachment rates and
strong engagement

TV Content

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SLIDE 8

SAC reduction from lower volumes and efficient distribution

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SAC & Marketing Costs

Lower volumes in H1:
  • Pulled back on retail gross adds in Q2 ahead of
launch of new plans
  • Continuing growth in B2B data connections
Reducing costs per add from:
  • Growing digital sales and upsell
  • Improved efficiency in digital channels
  • Next Best Action driving more efficient use of
marketing spend Sustainable reduction:
  • H2 and beyond will see higher volumes but
  • nline and channel optimisation benefits will
continue to deliver lower CPA £34m £18m £9m H1’16 H1’17 TTC Volumes CPA Phasing £3m TTB Volumes Continuing benefit £152m £94m Note: not to scale
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SLIDE 9

The value for money provider of connectivity for everyone

9
  • Making TalkTalk

Simpler delivering better customer experience and lower costs

  • Value for money quad play

for customers

  • Value for money data for

businesses

  • Stable household broadband base
  • Rapid RGU growth
  • Rapid market share growth in B2B data

Disruptive Innovation Network Leverage Value for Money Products Scale Simple Systems & processes Great Value for Everyone

  • Scale brings structural cost

advantage

  • Cost / Gb continuing to fall
  • Integrated fixed and

mobile network

  • Fibre to the Premise long

term potential

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SLIDE 10

Value for money products

10

THE RIGHT PRICE A RELIABLE SERVICE SIMPLE AND FAIR PRODUCTS GREAT VALUE

 

Always been the case Triple and Quad play customers save even more Real progress with Making TalkTalk Simpler Customer satisfaction up Churn down Fixed Low Price Plans Existing customers get the same deals Fast and Faster simple packages

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SLIDE 11 66% 64% 64% 70% 71% 74% 75% 77% 78% 81% 80% 50% 52% 52% 55% 56% 58% 60% 60% 61% 65% 63% Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 CS ASAT Tech ASAT ASAT up 23%

Making TalkTalk Simpler is delivering

11 Material Churn Improvement Satisfaction with Service Ofcom Complaints % customers agreed "TalkTalk is a brand I trust" Source: TNS Brand Tracker 46 47 47 47 47 48 50 54 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 TT Complaints Complaints down 44% 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY16 FY17 Churn down y-o-y
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SLIDE 12

Keeping TalkTalk Simpler

Underpinning our journey towards a self-serve quad play operating model

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Delivering new systems and processes

  • Network modernisation
  • DLM and DNS enhancements
  • Backhaul upgrades
  • Contact centre repair overhaul
  • Join/move essential fixes
  • Simple, clear, fair bill and payments
  • Next Best Offer
  • CRM / process management
enablers

Leveraging and scaling Effortless self-serve and quad play

  • Network transformation
  • Self-serve Repair as default
  • Join/move overhaul
  • Tail of billing and payments fixes
  • Next Best Offer optimisation
  • Tail of processes onto new CRM /
retire legacy CRM (including complaints)
  • Contact centre footprint and partner
model FY16 – FY17 FY17 – FY18 FY18 & beyond
  • Dark fibre
  • In-home connectivity: monitoring
support and CPE
  • Email outsourced
  • Mobile service integration with
triple play
  • Self-serve by default: online/apps
resilience, performance and scalability
  • Extended data-driven
personalisation

H1: £17m delivered FY savings of £35m-£40m Cumulative £90m+

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SLIDE 13

Extending our network cost advantage

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Modest new topology investment to maintain and improve our network cost advantage

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 Opex - Existing Backhaul Opex - Dark Fibre High level backhaul cost and evolution LOCAL  METRO METRO  COLLECTOR COLLECTOR  CORE CORE END USER  LOCAL NGM NGM NGA Customer NGE NGE Targeted Dark Fibre 90% Coverage All Dark Fibre Post Dark Fibre No Dark Fibre Some Dark Fibre All Dark Fibre Pre Dark Fibre
  • Upgraded backhaul and improved forecasting

eliminated congestion

  • More customers get the speeds they pay for on
  • ur network than any other
  • New access topology will improve resilience and

enhance experience

  • Extension of dark fibre capacity from core

network to collector (edge) will drive costs down as bandwidth expands exponentially

£40m planned investments over 3 years will expand capacity and drive down our long term backhaul costs by £20m p.a.
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SLIDE 14

Fixed Low Price Plans

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5 Key Principles 1. Prices fixed for the duration of the contract 2. Existing customers can get the same deals as new customers 3. Legacy price increase and tariff rationalisation to encourage re- contracting to new plans 4. Simpler product structure, all products begin with quad play components 5. Customers in control of their bundle

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SLIDE 15

Based on in depth customer insight

15 4.0 3.8 2.7 2.5 2.0 Price Reliability Faster speed Other TV content Ranking of reasons to choose Broadband provider 1 – most important, 5 – least important Source: TalkTalk research

What is most important to you in choosing a Broadband provider? Price is critical Which of the following would make you more likely to trust your Broadband provider? Customers increasingly see through gimmicks and hidden charges

69 74 75 84 Existing customers will always get the same brilliant deals that new customers can get The price you see is the price you pay. No extra charges, like installation fees or line rental All broadband packages are unlimited: however much you use, there will be no unexpected charges Price freeze on all prices and promotions for at least next 18 months Source: Trinity McQueen Loyalty Propositions Research, April 2016, QB1 QC1 Scores reported show relative importance indexed to an average score of 100 Drivers of trust in broadband provider
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SLIDE 16 16 Prices correct 01/11/16

Total 18 month Package Cost – Unlimited Broadband

Price Comparisons – post launch of Fixed Low Price Plans

FAST FASTER FAST + Plus TV FASTER + Plus TV £413 £511 £546 £644 £443 £722 £818 £1,097 £639 £795 £762 £892 £626 £627 £633 £633 £414 £535 £358 £545 £402 £451 Cheaper vs TT Expensive vs TT Unlimited Broadband Fibre Unlimited Original TV & Unlimited Broadband Original TV & Unlimited Fibre Unlimited Broadband & Weekend Calls Unlimited Infinity 1 & Weekend Calls Starter TV & Unlimited Broadband & Weekend Calls Starter TV & Unlimited Infinity 1 & Weekend Calls SuperFibre 50 & Calls SuperFibre 50 & Calls Player Bundle Mixed Bundle Unlimited Broadband & No Calls Unlimited Fibre & No Calls ADSL Broadband & Weekend Calls Unlimited Fibre (38Mbs) & Weekend Calls Unlimited Standard BB 17 Unlimited Fibre 38 Prices calculated without vouchers and excluding safety features
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SLIDE 17 Voicemail £0.00 £1.25 £0.00 £2.25 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £1.00 Caller Display £0.00 £0.00 £2.25 £1.75 £0.99 £1.75 £0.00 £1.00 Anon caller reject £0.00 £4.00 £2.70 £5.80 £4.00 £1.75 £2.50 £1.00 Last caller barring £0.00 £3.35 £2.25 £4.75 £0.00 £1.75 £0.00 £1.00 Monthly Total £0.00 £8.60 £7.20 £14.55 £4.99 £5.25 £2.50 £4.00 18 month Total £0 £155 £130 £262 £90 £95 £45 £72

Calling and Safety Features

Prices correct 01/11/16
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SLIDE 18

TalkTalk For Everyone

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Fixed price plans Family Photo

An important step in brand transformation

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SLIDE 19

Early results are encouraging

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Re-contracting onto Fixed Low Price Plans stronger than we expected Short term effects

  • ARPU dilution mitigated by:
  • Strong attachment rates for calling boosts, TV

and fibre

  • New customers joining on higher ARPUs than

legacy cohorts on deep discounts

  • Improving quality of revenue mix in base
  • Lower churn
  • 10 times more customers have re-contracted on

the new plans than in an average month

  • Majority of re-contracting customers either out-
  • f-contract or nearly out-of-contract ie in highest

churn segments

  • Percentage of base in contract growing by 2% per

week – strong forward indicator of reduced churn

We are building a more loyal and higher quality customer base

Medium term benefits

  • Higher than expected re-contracting activity

driving short term ARPU dilution

  • Simplification of deeply discounted legacy tariffs

driving short term churn

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SLIDE 20 7.1 10.2 13.7 17.4 21.6 26.2 30.7 35.1 39.3 H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16 H2'16 H1'17

TalkTalk Business growing strongly, driven by data revenues

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Corporate Revenue Sustained revenue progress High growth and margin Ethernet & EFM Lines (‘000)

Phone and BB (retail and wholesale) Legacy Voice Carrier TalkTalk Group Data & Next Gen Voice Gross Margin Growth H1'16 H1'17 Data Carrier Voice +10.6% +38.9% +30.9%
  • 22.8%
£188m £208m 87 91 88 89 94 104 93 95 95 101 100 108 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
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SLIDE 21

Wide suite of connectivity products

21 FTTC ADSL 2+ 1Gb Ethernet 100 Mb Ethernet Eo FTTC EFM Broadband products Ethernet products £20 £40 £70 £300 £1,200 Wholesale – Partner Managed/IPVPN – Partner/Direct Contended Standard or Enhanced Care levels Services Delivered over Copper Uncontended Business Grade SLA’s & Ethernet Presentation Fibre Delivery SIP can be provisioned across all TalkTalk Business Connectivity Dark Fibre EoFTTP EoG.Fast FTTP G.Fast Existing products Future products
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SLIDE 22

Material room for TalkTalk Business to grow

  • TalkTalk has c10-12% market share
  • Taking c16% of Openreach new connections
  • Significant growth opportunity as market

expands

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National & Metro Ethernet Market IPVPN Market

0k 50k 100k 150k 200k 250k 300k 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 320k 340k 360k 380k 400k 420k 440k 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
  • TalkTalk has a c2% share
  • Opportunity to take market share in segments

not well served by incumbent providers

Source: Ovum (Latest UK specific forecast, July 2015), Kable (2015) and TTB internal estimates/weighting Ovum Service End Points Ovum Service End Points
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SLIDE 23

Building an Inside Out Mobile Network

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Progress in H1 FY17

  • Mobile base now 793k, 22% of the base
  • 500Mb data SIM offer included in all Broadband

packages

  • New billing system deployed in live environment
  • Our own TalkTalk 4G SIMS successfully

provisioned on Telefonica O2 network

  • Ofcom approved use of TalkTalk’s Dect

Guardband spectrum for 4G in September

  • Femto home trials successful

Potential to build 4m strong mobile business

Forward timeline Live trials begin Billing migration testing Billing migration Network migration Thick Build Femto rollout Nov 16 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 18/19 FY19

Selling 4G
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SLIDE 24

Concluded successful phase 1 trial of FTTP in York

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Progress to date Next steps

  • 14k homes passed at build

cost of £417

  • 2,500 TalkTalk and Sky

customers taking service (18%

  • f homes passed)
  • Excellent customer feedback
  • ASAT at 82%
  • Churn to date is 1

customer

  • 100% uptime since launch

(MPF would expect 50+ faults

  • ver same period)
  • Complete build of FTTP across

York:

  • 40k more homes, £20m cost
  • ver 18 months from Spring

2017

  • JV with CFH (67%:33%)
  • Sky to become long term

Wholesale customer

  • Can see significant operational

improvements to further reduce costs and improve marketing efficiency, which we will trial in phase 2 in York

Will build out to rest of York in FY18/19

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SLIDE 25

Summary

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 Strong H1 performance: EBITDA £130m (+44% year-on-year); interim dividend maintained at 5.29p  Material improvements in customer service: Q2 churn reduced to 1.43% (Q216: 1.58%)  TalkTalk Business continuing to show strong growth through Data  High levels of re-contracting following launch of Fixed Low Price Plans  Compelling value offer and further improvements in service to drive a return to growth in FY18  FY EBITDA expected to be towards the lower end of our £320m-£360m guidance  Final dividend expected to be in line with FY16 and broadly covered by operating FCF

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SLIDE 26

H1 Financial Review

26
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SLIDE 27

Summary Profit & Loss

27 H1’17 H1’16 Year on Year £’m £’m Headline Revenue 902 912
  • 1.1%
Gross Profit 469 487
  • 3.7%
Margin 52.0% 53.4% Operating costs (245) (245)
  • SAC & Marketing
(94) (152)
  • 38.2%
Headline EBITDA 130 90 +44.4% Margin 14.4% 9.9% Profit after tax 35 11 +218.2% Headline EPS (Basic) 3.7p 1.2p +208.3% Dividend per share 5.29p 5.29p
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SLIDE 28

Revenue and ARPU

28
  • Decline in average on net base offset by
pricing
  • 8,600 additional data lines driving Corporate
Data growth
  • Legacy voice decline offset by growth in
VOIP proposition (+35%)
  • Carrier growth expected to reverse in H2 so
that FY overall will be flat y-o-y
  • Impact of pricing in June and October 2015
  • Growth in Fibre and Mobile
  • Offset by voice usage decline and mix of
Retail vs Wholesale customers £912m £902m £27m £3m £18m £21m £17m H1'16 On-Net Off-Net Data Legacy Voice Carrier H1'17 Corporate £28.08 £28.05 £0.62 £0.50 £0.83 £0.26 H1'16 Pricing & Proposition Triple / Quad Play Voice Usage Mix H1'17
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SLIDE 29

Gross Margin

On-net
  • Lower weight of Retail revenues versus
Wholesale revenues in the on-net mix
  • Lower voice revenues (cyber gesture)
  • £7m MTTS benefits
Corporate
  • Growth in high margin data revenue (8.3% of
total revenues vs 5.9% in H116)
  • Greater weight of low margin carrier revenues in
the mix (8% vs 6% in H116) and lower year-on- year voice revenues H2 to recover:
  • Pricing
  • Reversal of the trend in carrier growth
  • Procurement savings
29 53.4% 52.0% 2.2% 1.8% 1.7% H1'16 On Net Data Voice & Carrier H1'17 Corporate
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SLIDE 30

Opex and SAC

Opex:
  • Flat year-on-year with network and IT investment
  • ffset by lower costs to serve and MTTS savings
SAC & Marketing: – Lower volumes – Lower Costs per Add from improved online journeys, better targeted upselling activity and channel optimisation – Phasing – marketing spend deferred ahead of new propositions launch – Higher TTB broadband and Data connections 30 245 245 152 94 3 34 18 9 H1'16 Volume Channel Optimisation Phasing B2B & Data H1'17 SAC & Marketing Opex Continuing benefit
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SLIDE 31

Summary Cashflow

31 £’m H1 FY17 EBITDA 130 Working Capital (59) CAPEX (99) Operating Free Cash Flow (28) Interest and Tax (11) Free Cash Flow (39) Acquisitions (14) Exceptional Items (15) Dividends – FY16 Final (100) NET CASH FLOW (168) Net Debt * (847) Net Debt / LTM EBITDA 2.8x * Net of derivatives £33m Working Capital
  • Timing of payments on distribution agreement
  • Phasing of stock payments
  • Prepayment of marketing spend ahead of launch of new
propositions
  • Expect to mostly reverse in H2
Exceptional items down year-on-year
  • Higher than P&L charge (£11m) due to utilisation of PY
provision
  • Expect FY exceptional items of £30-£35m
Dividend in line with guidance
  • FY17 Final dividend expected to be in line with FY16
  • Broadly covered by Operating Free Cash Flow
Leverage
  • In line with leverage at end of H116
  • Expect strong cashflow generation through H2 to drive
deleveraging towards medium term target of 2.0x
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SLIDE 32

Capex

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  • H1 Capex (net of asset disposals) reflects
  • phasing effect of c£30m investment that was planned for
H216 but delayed by cyber attack; and
  • underlying H1:H2 weighting
  • Timing difference will return to normal levels by year end
  • Expect phasing to drive lower capex in H2 (vs H1 and H216)
  • Capex for the full year expected to be £130m-£135m, net of
proceeds from asset sales
  • Slightly higher than planned due to systems investment to
support new propositions and rollout of mobile systems £99m Software £33m Hardware £36m Innovation £15m PPE £7m £91m Software £43m Hardware £43m Innovation £13m H1’16 H1’17 H2’17 £30m-£35m
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SLIDE 33

EBITDA outlook

  • Back book re-pricing
  • Boost attachment rates
  • New acquisition volumes
  • SAC impact of TV and fibre take-up
  • ARPU dilution from re-contracting
  • Churn from legacy cohorts
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  • Quality of base and revenue
  • Customer engagement
  • Churn
  • Success of re-contracting activity drives FY17 EBITDA towards lower end of £320m - £360m

guidance and in line with market consensus

  • Final dividend in line with FY16 and guidance
  • Year-end leverage (net debt/EBITDA) to be significantly lower than at end of FY16

Impact of Fixed Low Price Plans Medium term benefits Short term impact

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SLIDE 34

Appendices

34
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SLIDE 35

Reconciliation of reported to statutory profits

35 £m H1’17 HEADLINE H1’17 EXCEPTIONALS H1’17 STATUTORY EBITDA 130 (11) 119 Depreciation (35) (35) Amortisation (30) (5) (35) Share of JV’s (5) (5) Interest (14) (14) PROFIT BEFORE TAX 46 (16) 30 Tax (11) 2 (9) Effective Tax Rate 24% PROFIT AFTER TAX 35 (14) 21 Basic EPS 3.7p 2.2p DPS 5.29p 5.29p
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SLIDE 36

Our Network Infrastructure today

Significant national scale through a combination of owned and leased assets

Price regulated copper and ethernet Fibre Owned equipment in 3,000+ Unbundled Exchanges Owned equipment in regional Collector Nodes to extend Core Network Owned Equipment in Collector Ring - 10Gbps optical circuit or dark fibre supplied by BT, SSE, GEO, VM and Eircom Core National Optical Network 2 separate national networks with 8Tbps (Huawei) and 1,6Tbps (Infinera) capacity Exchange Backhaul 1-10Gbps optical circuits supplied by BT Openreach
  • r Virgin media
Dark fibre sourced under long term leases in a competitive market with no capacity constraints Street cabinet Fibre to the Cabinet Exchange Collector Node Ethernet
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SLIDE 37

Total Other Costs

37
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SLIDE 38

KPIs

38 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 On-Net Base (m) Broadband & Voice 3.162 3.295 3.402 3.570 3.656 3.775 3.728 3.658 3.638 Broadband Only 0.642 0.575 0.526 0.490 0.449 0.402 0.369 0.338 0.329 Total 3.804 3.870 3.928 4.060 4.105 4.177 4.097 3.996 3.967 On-net Churn (p.m.) 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% Mobile (m) 0.117 0.175 0.236 0.284 0.348 0.464 0.596 0.699 0.793 Fibre (m) 0.030 0.073 0.142 0.207 0.308 0.479 0.578 0.704 0.779 TV (m) 0.000 0.230 0.557 0.917 1.217 1.414 1.439 1.389 1.333 Ethernet and EFM lines 7,100 10,200 13,700 17,400 21,600 26,200 30,700 35,100 39,300 Total Broadband (m) 4.043 4.063 4.076 4.196 4.221 4.283 4.189 4.072 4.036 Revenue (£m) On-net 573 597 612 642 648 685 697 702 670 Off-net 95 83 69 59 46 41 27 28 24 Corporate 160 162 162 178 177 198 188 196 208 Total 828 842 843 879 871 924 912 926 902 On-net ARPU (£) 25.27 25.93 26.16 26.79 26.45 27.57 28.08 28.91 28.05