TalkTalk Interim Results FY17
TalkTalk Interim Results FY17 Summary Strong H1 performance: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
TalkTalk Interim Results FY17 Summary Strong H1 performance: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
TalkTalk Interim Results FY17 Summary Strong H1 performance: EBITDA 130m (+44% year-on-year); interim dividend maintained at 5.29p Material improvements in customer experience: Q2 churn reduced to 1.43% (Q216: 1.58%) High levels
Summary
Strong H1 performance: EBITDA £130m (+44% year-on-year); interim dividend maintained at 5.29p Material improvements in customer experience: Q2 churn reduced to 1.43% (Q216: 1.58%) High levels of re-contracting following launch of Fixed Low Price Plans Compelling value offer and further improvements in service to drive a return to growth in FY18 York fibre to the premise trial to be extended to whole city beginning in Spring 2017 FY EBITDA expected to be towards the lower end of our £320m-£360m guidance Final dividend expected to be in line with FY16 and broadly covered by operating FCF
2H1 Business review
3Q2 performance
Churn significantly lower year-on-year; lower recruitment activity ahead of new proposition launch
4- H1 revenue -1.1% year-on-year in line with expectations
- Q2 -1.7% year-on-year
- Q2 churn significantly better year on year (Q216: 1.58%)
- Consequence of lower broadband and TV recruitment activity in Q2
ahead of launch of new pricing and propositions
- Continued growth in Fibre and Mobile
- 20k
- 9k
- 33k
- 23k
H1 performance
5 Leverage YoY Revenue Growth £697m £188m £670m £208m £912m £902m H1 FY16 H1 FY17- 3.9%
- 1.1%
- 11.1%
Broadband Base
Stabilising through strong wholesale performance and reducing churn in retail base
6 Wholesale Broadband Base 737k 771k 830k 899k H2’15 H1’16 H2’16 H1’17 Wholesale- Continued consistently strong growth in profitable business
- H116: decision to disconnect 72k non-paying customers
- H216: impacted by 95k due to the cyber attack
- H117 slowed gross retail connections before launch of Fixed
- Churn coming down significantly and quality of base rising
- Expect retail base to stabilise and return to growth in FY18
Continuing strong Mobile and Fibre take-up
7% base Mobile % base Fibre % base TV
21% 30 73 142 207 308 479 578 704 780 H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16 H2'16 H1'17 230 557 917 1,217 1,414 1,439 1,389 1,333 H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16 H2'16 H1'17 37% 22% 117 175 236 284 348 464 596 699 793 H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16 H2'16 H1'17- Strong take-up of TV App by customers who don’t have a
- Flexible viewing on multiple devices is driving greater
- Completed multi-year renewal of full Sky content
- New propositions driving good attachment rates and
TV Content
SAC reduction from lower volumes and efficient distribution
8SAC & Marketing Costs
Lower volumes in H1:- Pulled back on retail gross adds in Q2 ahead of
- Continuing growth in B2B data connections
- Growing digital sales and upsell
- Improved efficiency in digital channels
- Next Best Action driving more efficient use of
- H2 and beyond will see higher volumes but
- nline and channel optimisation benefits will
The value for money provider of connectivity for everyone
9- Making TalkTalk
Simpler delivering better customer experience and lower costs
- Value for money quad play
for customers
- Value for money data for
businesses
- Stable household broadband base
- Rapid RGU growth
- Rapid market share growth in B2B data
Disruptive Innovation Network Leverage Value for Money Products Scale Simple Systems & processes Great Value for Everyone
- Scale brings structural cost
advantage
- Cost / Gb continuing to fall
- Integrated fixed and
mobile network
- Fibre to the Premise long
term potential
Value for money products
10THE RIGHT PRICE A RELIABLE SERVICE SIMPLE AND FAIR PRODUCTS GREAT VALUE
Always been the case Triple and Quad play customers save even more Real progress with Making TalkTalk Simpler Customer satisfaction up Churn down Fixed Low Price Plans Existing customers get the same deals Fast and Faster simple packages
Making TalkTalk Simpler is delivering
11 Material Churn Improvement Satisfaction with Service Ofcom Complaints % customers agreed "TalkTalk is a brand I trust" Source: TNS Brand Tracker 46 47 47 47 47 48 50 54 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 TT Complaints Complaints down 44% 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY16 FY17 Churn down y-o-yKeeping TalkTalk Simpler
Underpinning our journey towards a self-serve quad play operating model
12Delivering new systems and processes
- Network modernisation
- DLM and DNS enhancements
- Backhaul upgrades
- Contact centre repair overhaul
- Join/move essential fixes
- Simple, clear, fair bill and payments
- Next Best Offer
- CRM / process management
Leveraging and scaling Effortless self-serve and quad play
- Network transformation
- Self-serve Repair as default
- Join/move overhaul
- Tail of billing and payments fixes
- Next Best Offer optimisation
- Tail of processes onto new CRM /
- Contact centre footprint and partner
- Dark fibre
- In-home connectivity: monitoring
- Email outsourced
- Mobile service integration with
- Self-serve by default: online/apps
- Extended data-driven
H1: £17m delivered FY savings of £35m-£40m Cumulative £90m+
Extending our network cost advantage
13Modest new topology investment to maintain and improve our network cost advantage
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 Opex - Existing Backhaul Opex - Dark Fibre High level backhaul cost and evolution LOCAL METRO METRO COLLECTOR COLLECTOR CORE CORE END USER LOCAL NGM NGM NGA Customer NGE NGE Targeted Dark Fibre 90% Coverage All Dark Fibre Post Dark Fibre No Dark Fibre Some Dark Fibre All Dark Fibre Pre Dark Fibre- Upgraded backhaul and improved forecasting
eliminated congestion
- More customers get the speeds they pay for on
- ur network than any other
- New access topology will improve resilience and
enhance experience
- Extension of dark fibre capacity from core
network to collector (edge) will drive costs down as bandwidth expands exponentially
£40m planned investments over 3 years will expand capacity and drive down our long term backhaul costs by £20m p.a.Fixed Low Price Plans
145 Key Principles 1. Prices fixed for the duration of the contract 2. Existing customers can get the same deals as new customers 3. Legacy price increase and tariff rationalisation to encourage re- contracting to new plans 4. Simpler product structure, all products begin with quad play components 5. Customers in control of their bundle
Based on in depth customer insight
15 4.0 3.8 2.7 2.5 2.0 Price Reliability Faster speed Other TV content Ranking of reasons to choose Broadband provider 1 – most important, 5 – least important Source: TalkTalk researchWhat is most important to you in choosing a Broadband provider? Price is critical Which of the following would make you more likely to trust your Broadband provider? Customers increasingly see through gimmicks and hidden charges
69 74 75 84 Existing customers will always get the same brilliant deals that new customers can get The price you see is the price you pay. No extra charges, like installation fees or line rental All broadband packages are unlimited: however much you use, there will be no unexpected charges Price freeze on all prices and promotions for at least next 18 months Source: Trinity McQueen Loyalty Propositions Research, April 2016, QB1 QC1 Scores reported show relative importance indexed to an average score of 100 Drivers of trust in broadband providerTotal 18 month Package Cost – Unlimited Broadband
Price Comparisons – post launch of Fixed Low Price Plans
FAST FASTER FAST + Plus TV FASTER + Plus TV £413 £511 £546 £644 £443 £722 £818 £1,097 £639 £795 £762 £892 £626 £627 £633 £633 £414 £535 £358 £545 £402 £451 Cheaper vs TT Expensive vs TT Unlimited Broadband Fibre Unlimited Original TV & Unlimited Broadband Original TV & Unlimited Fibre Unlimited Broadband & Weekend Calls Unlimited Infinity 1 & Weekend Calls Starter TV & Unlimited Broadband & Weekend Calls Starter TV & Unlimited Infinity 1 & Weekend Calls SuperFibre 50 & Calls SuperFibre 50 & Calls Player Bundle Mixed Bundle Unlimited Broadband & No Calls Unlimited Fibre & No Calls ADSL Broadband & Weekend Calls Unlimited Fibre (38Mbs) & Weekend Calls Unlimited Standard BB 17 Unlimited Fibre 38 Prices calculated without vouchers and excluding safety featuresCalling and Safety Features
Prices correct 01/11/16TalkTalk For Everyone
18Fixed price plans Family Photo
An important step in brand transformation
Early results are encouraging
19Re-contracting onto Fixed Low Price Plans stronger than we expected Short term effects
- ARPU dilution mitigated by:
- Strong attachment rates for calling boosts, TV
and fibre
- New customers joining on higher ARPUs than
legacy cohorts on deep discounts
- Improving quality of revenue mix in base
- Lower churn
- 10 times more customers have re-contracted on
the new plans than in an average month
- Majority of re-contracting customers either out-
- f-contract or nearly out-of-contract ie in highest
churn segments
- Percentage of base in contract growing by 2% per
week – strong forward indicator of reduced churn
We are building a more loyal and higher quality customer base
Medium term benefits
- Higher than expected re-contracting activity
driving short term ARPU dilution
- Simplification of deeply discounted legacy tariffs
driving short term churn
TalkTalk Business growing strongly, driven by data revenues
20Corporate Revenue Sustained revenue progress High growth and margin Ethernet & EFM Lines (‘000)
Phone and BB (retail and wholesale) Legacy Voice Carrier TalkTalk Group Data & Next Gen Voice Gross Margin Growth H1'16 H1'17 Data Carrier Voice +10.6% +38.9% +30.9%- 22.8%
Wide suite of connectivity products
21 FTTC ADSL 2+ 1Gb Ethernet 100 Mb Ethernet Eo FTTC EFM Broadband products Ethernet products £20 £40 £70 £300 £1,200 Wholesale – Partner Managed/IPVPN – Partner/Direct Contended Standard or Enhanced Care levels Services Delivered over Copper Uncontended Business Grade SLA’s & Ethernet Presentation Fibre Delivery SIP can be provisioned across all TalkTalk Business Connectivity Dark Fibre EoFTTP EoG.Fast FTTP G.Fast Existing products Future productsMaterial room for TalkTalk Business to grow
- TalkTalk has c10-12% market share
- Taking c16% of Openreach new connections
- Significant growth opportunity as market
expands
22National & Metro Ethernet Market IPVPN Market
0k 50k 100k 150k 200k 250k 300k 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 320k 340k 360k 380k 400k 420k 440k 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020- TalkTalk has a c2% share
- Opportunity to take market share in segments
not well served by incumbent providers
Source: Ovum (Latest UK specific forecast, July 2015), Kable (2015) and TTB internal estimates/weighting Ovum Service End Points Ovum Service End PointsBuilding an Inside Out Mobile Network
23Progress in H1 FY17
- Mobile base now 793k, 22% of the base
- 500Mb data SIM offer included in all Broadband
packages
- New billing system deployed in live environment
- Our own TalkTalk 4G SIMS successfully
provisioned on Telefonica O2 network
- Ofcom approved use of TalkTalk’s Dect
Guardband spectrum for 4G in September
- Femto home trials successful
Potential to build 4m strong mobile business
Forward timeline Live trials begin Billing migration testing Billing migration Network migration Thick Build Femto rollout Nov 16 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 18/19 FY19
Selling 4GConcluded successful phase 1 trial of FTTP in York
24Progress to date Next steps
- 14k homes passed at build
cost of £417
- 2,500 TalkTalk and Sky
customers taking service (18%
- f homes passed)
- Excellent customer feedback
- ASAT at 82%
- Churn to date is 1
customer
- 100% uptime since launch
(MPF would expect 50+ faults
- ver same period)
- Complete build of FTTP across
York:
- 40k more homes, £20m cost
- ver 18 months from Spring
2017
- JV with CFH (67%:33%)
- Sky to become long term
Wholesale customer
- Can see significant operational
improvements to further reduce costs and improve marketing efficiency, which we will trial in phase 2 in York
Will build out to rest of York in FY18/19
Summary
25 Strong H1 performance: EBITDA £130m (+44% year-on-year); interim dividend maintained at 5.29p Material improvements in customer service: Q2 churn reduced to 1.43% (Q216: 1.58%) TalkTalk Business continuing to show strong growth through Data High levels of re-contracting following launch of Fixed Low Price Plans Compelling value offer and further improvements in service to drive a return to growth in FY18 FY EBITDA expected to be towards the lower end of our £320m-£360m guidance Final dividend expected to be in line with FY16 and broadly covered by operating FCF
H1 Financial Review
26Summary Profit & Loss
27 H1’17 H1’16 Year on Year £’m £’m Headline Revenue 902 912- 1.1%
- 3.7%
- SAC & Marketing
- 38.2%
Revenue and ARPU
28- Decline in average on net base offset by
- 8,600 additional data lines driving Corporate
- Legacy voice decline offset by growth in
- Carrier growth expected to reverse in H2 so
- Impact of pricing in June and October 2015
- Growth in Fibre and Mobile
- Offset by voice usage decline and mix of
Gross Margin
On-net- Lower weight of Retail revenues versus
- Lower voice revenues (cyber gesture)
- £7m MTTS benefits
- Growth in high margin data revenue (8.3% of
- Greater weight of low margin carrier revenues in
- Pricing
- Reversal of the trend in carrier growth
- Procurement savings
Opex and SAC
Opex:- Flat year-on-year with network and IT investment
- ffset by lower costs to serve and MTTS savings
Summary Cashflow
31 £’m H1 FY17 EBITDA 130 Working Capital (59) CAPEX (99) Operating Free Cash Flow (28) Interest and Tax (11) Free Cash Flow (39) Acquisitions (14) Exceptional Items (15) Dividends – FY16 Final (100) NET CASH FLOW (168) Net Debt * (847) Net Debt / LTM EBITDA 2.8x * Net of derivatives £33m Working Capital- Timing of payments on distribution agreement
- Phasing of stock payments
- Prepayment of marketing spend ahead of launch of new
- Expect to mostly reverse in H2
- Higher than P&L charge (£11m) due to utilisation of PY
- Expect FY exceptional items of £30-£35m
- FY17 Final dividend expected to be in line with FY16
- Broadly covered by Operating Free Cash Flow
- In line with leverage at end of H116
- Expect strong cashflow generation through H2 to drive
Capex
32- H1 Capex (net of asset disposals) reflects
- phasing effect of c£30m investment that was planned for
- underlying H1:H2 weighting
- Timing difference will return to normal levels by year end
- Expect phasing to drive lower capex in H2 (vs H1 and H216)
- Capex for the full year expected to be £130m-£135m, net of
- Slightly higher than planned due to systems investment to
EBITDA outlook
- Back book re-pricing
- Boost attachment rates
- New acquisition volumes
- SAC impact of TV and fibre take-up
- ARPU dilution from re-contracting
- Churn from legacy cohorts
- Quality of base and revenue
- Customer engagement
- Churn
- Success of re-contracting activity drives FY17 EBITDA towards lower end of £320m - £360m
guidance and in line with market consensus
- Final dividend in line with FY16 and guidance
- Year-end leverage (net debt/EBITDA) to be significantly lower than at end of FY16
Impact of Fixed Low Price Plans Medium term benefits Short term impact
Appendices
34Reconciliation of reported to statutory profits
35 £m H1’17 HEADLINE H1’17 EXCEPTIONALS H1’17 STATUTORY EBITDA 130 (11) 119 Depreciation (35) (35) Amortisation (30) (5) (35) Share of JV’s (5) (5) Interest (14) (14) PROFIT BEFORE TAX 46 (16) 30 Tax (11) 2 (9) Effective Tax Rate 24% PROFIT AFTER TAX 35 (14) 21 Basic EPS 3.7p 2.2p DPS 5.29p 5.29pOur Network Infrastructure today
Significant national scale through a combination of owned and leased assets
Price regulated copper and ethernet Fibre Owned equipment in 3,000+ Unbundled Exchanges Owned equipment in regional Collector Nodes to extend Core Network Owned Equipment in Collector Ring - 10Gbps optical circuit or dark fibre supplied by BT, SSE, GEO, VM and Eircom Core National Optical Network 2 separate national networks with 8Tbps (Huawei) and 1,6Tbps (Infinera) capacity Exchange Backhaul 1-10Gbps optical circuits supplied by BT Openreach- r Virgin media
Total Other Costs
37KPIs
38 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 On-Net Base (m) Broadband & Voice 3.162 3.295 3.402 3.570 3.656 3.775 3.728 3.658 3.638 Broadband Only 0.642 0.575 0.526 0.490 0.449 0.402 0.369 0.338 0.329 Total 3.804 3.870 3.928 4.060 4.105 4.177 4.097 3.996 3.967 On-net Churn (p.m.) 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% Mobile (m) 0.117 0.175 0.236 0.284 0.348 0.464 0.596 0.699 0.793 Fibre (m) 0.030 0.073 0.142 0.207 0.308 0.479 0.578 0.704 0.779 TV (m) 0.000 0.230 0.557 0.917 1.217 1.414 1.439 1.389 1.333 Ethernet and EFM lines 7,100 10,200 13,700 17,400 21,600 26,200 30,700 35,100 39,300 Total Broadband (m) 4.043 4.063 4.076 4.196 4.221 4.283 4.189 4.072 4.036 Revenue (£m) On-net 573 597 612 642 648 685 697 702 670 Off-net 95 83 69 59 46 41 27 28 24 Corporate 160 162 162 178 177 198 188 196 208 Total 828 842 843 879 871 924 912 926 902 On-net ARPU (£) 25.27 25.93 26.16 26.79 26.45 27.57 28.08 28.91 28.05