Talent Match Lee Adams W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE FOR EMPLOYMENT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Talent Match Lee Adams W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE FOR EMPLOYMENT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 07, 2022 148 likes •665 views

Talent Match Lee Adams W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH Overview of Presentation Primary Findings Discussion of Current Conditions and Employment Pipeline Discussion of Inefficiencies in the Labor Market Education

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Talent Match

Lee Adams

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Overview of Presentation

  • Primary Findings
  • Discussion of Current Conditions and Employment Pipeline
  • Discussion of Inefficiencies in the Labor Market

– Education and Employment Mismatch – Skills and Employment Mismatch – Geographic Mismatch – Employee Preference Mismatches

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

PRIMARY FINDINGS

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Major Trends

  • Shortage of qualified workers

– The region will need to cultivate and attract qualified workers

  • Many workers are underemployed or feel at risk of losing their jobs
  • For many job postings (except in health), education requirements

surpass the education attainment levels of the current workforce

– Job postings are often inaccurate

  • Too many students are not appropriately trained for the workforce

upon graduation

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

An Overly Simplified Picture of the Region’s Labor Demand/Supply Factors

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Labor Demand (Job creation or contraction-directly or through temp services –by existing, relocating, or start-ups firms) Labor Supply (Emerging workforce (coming of age & graduates) + existing workers + workers rejoining the workforce + net migrants + net commuters – workers leaving the workforce)

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

An Overly Simplified Picture of Changes to the Regional Labor Market

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Labor Demand = Labor Supply, when

Employers offer preferred:

  • Wages and benefits
  • Employment conditions (hours, scheduling, stability of the work environment, work type)

Job Seekers:

  • Are able to fulfill the requirements of the position or are able to access necessary training
  • pportunities
  • Have support structures, e.g. childcare, and reliable transportation

Clearly, this equation is impacted by inefficiencies found in both sides of the equation

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

CURRENT CONDITIONS

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Unemployment Rates Have Fully Recovered

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Percent of Labor Force

Unemployment Rate

Region 8 Michigan United States

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Source: US Census Population Estimates and Bureau of Labor Statistics

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

However, Labor Force Participation Has Not

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Percent of Population 16 and Over

Labor Force Participation

Region 8 Michigan United States

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Source: US Census Population Estimates and Bureau of Labor Statistics

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Age Distribution of Employees

5 10 15 20 25 30 SW MI Michigan United States

Age Distribution of the Employed

16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and over

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Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2011-2015

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

The Region’s Workforce Tends to be Older Except in Kalamazoo County

5 10 15 20 25 30 Berrien Branch Calhoun Cass Kalamazoo

  • St. Joseph

Van Buren Percent of Age Group

Age Distribution of the Employed

16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and over

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Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2011-2015

WMU and Kalamazoo College attract talent; how can the region keep them?

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

The Region Will Become More Dependent on Newcomers - Will We be Able to Attract Them?

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Workers Age 18 to 49 Age 50 to 64 In-Migration Unexplained Gap

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Total Migration by County

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Berrien Branch Calhoun Cass Kalamazoo

  • St. Joseph

Van Buren Percent of Total

Migration

In-migrants (including regional) Out-migrants (including regional)

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Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2011-2015

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Younger Segments of the Population Tend to Move Relatively Frequently

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Berrien Branch Calhoun Cass Kalamazoo

  • St. Joseph

Van Buren Percent of Total

Migration Age 25 to 29

In 25-29 Out 25-29

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Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2011-2015

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

30-34 Year Old's Move a Little Less but Still More than Average

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Berrien Branch Calhoun Cass Kalamazoo

  • St. Joseph

Van Buren Percent of Total

Migration Age 30 to 34

In 30 to 34 Out 30 to 34

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Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2011-2015

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT MISMATCH

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

What are the Challenges?

  • Many students leave the education system unprepared for the

workforce

  • There are leaks throughout the K-12 pipeline
  • Evidence suggests there is a mismatch between employer’s

stated expectations and the education attainment levels of jobseekers

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Student Success– Back of the envelope estimation (KRESA)

Approximately 60%

  • f students perform

well (1,800 students) 40% are struggling (1,200 students)

K – 3rd Grade

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Total students: 3,000

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

200 students complete high school

30% catch up 350 students

Student Success– Back of the envelope estimation (KRESA)

Approximately 60%

  • f students perform

well (1,800 students) 40% are struggling (1,200 students)

K – 3rd Grade

3rd Grade to 12th Grade

  • Approx. 95%, plus 30%
  • f the struggling

complete high school (2,150 students)

  • Approx. 750

students (25%) don’t graduate

  • n time.

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130 students earn diploma in 2 yrs

Total students: 3,000

650 students off track 400 students complete H.S.

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

200 students complete high school

30% catch up 350 students

Student Success– Back of the envelope estimation (KRESA)

Approximately 60%

  • f students perform

well (1,800 students) 40% are struggling (1,200 students)

K – 3rd Grade

3rd Grade to 12th Grade

College in one year

  • Approx. 95% complete

high school (2,150 students)

  • Approx. 750

students (25%) don’t graduate

  • n time.

950 to 4-yr school and 700 to CC

On average, 12 percent of community college students complete and 70 percent of four- year students complete.

400 students complete H.S.

650 4-yr grads 100 2-yr grads 1,300 drop out

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130 students earn diploma in 2 yrs

Total students: 3,000

650 students off track

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

The Region is Far Below the Education Levels Future Work will Demand

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Percent of Over 25

Associates Degree or Higher

Current Trend Projected Trend

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Source: IPUMS USA

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Posted Openings and Completions Do Not Match

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Agriculture Legal Public admin./social serv.

  • Prof. services

Physical sciences Education Visual perf. arts Construction trades Mechanic and repair Engineering tech Comp/IT Precision production Personal/culinary Transportation Health Business Percent of total

Post-Secondary Completions and Posted Employment

Post-secondary completions Posted jobs

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Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight

Health care has established clear certification programs for many of its

  • ccupations which enhances the job

match.

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Only One Half of the Job Postings Include Educational Requirements

High School or

  • Voc. Training,

13,683, 24% Associate's, 3,081, 6% Bachelor's, 10,623, 19% Graduate, 1,885, 3% Unknown, 27,277, 48%

Job Postings in 2016

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Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

SKILLS AND EMPLOYMENT MISMATCH

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Challenges

  • Certain skills are needed in the region, but those looking for

work may not possess them

  • Attaining the skills needed is not straightforward

– Many are soft-skills and difficult measure

  • What else?

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Regional Concentrations of Occupations

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Legal Farming, etc Life, Physical, and Social Science Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Community and Social Service Protective Service Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Personal Care and Service Healthcare Support Cleaning and Maintenance Business and Finance Food Prep and Serving Maintenance and Repair Construction Education, Training, and Library Healthcare Practitioners Sales and Related Management Office and Administrative Support Production Transportation Percent of Employed in the Region High Skill Low or Seasonal Middle Skill

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Lower Skill Occupations are More Vulnerable to Market Volatility

Management Business Computer

  • Arch. and eng.

Sciences Social srv. Legal Education Arts, design, etc. Healthcare Healthcare support Protective srv Food prep and srv. Cleaning and maint. Personal care and srv Sales Office Farming Construction

  • Maint. and repair

Production Transportation

5 10 15 20 25 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Percent Not in Labor Force Percent Unemployed

2007 – 2009 Average

27 Low Skill or Seasonal Middle Skill High Skill

Source: IPUMS USA

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Lower Skill Occupations are More Vulnerable to Market Volatility

Management Business Computer

  • Arch. and eng.

Sciences Social srv. Legal Education Arts, design, etc. Healthcare Healthcare support Protective srv Food prep and srv. Cleaning and maint. Personal care and srv Sales Office Farming Construction

  • Maint. and repair

Production Transportation

5 10 15 20 25 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Percent Not in Labor Force Percent Unemployed

2010 – 2012 Average

28 Low Skill or Seasonal Middle Skill High Skill

Source: IPUMS USA

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Lower Skill Occupations are More Vulnerable to Market Volatility

Management Business Computer

  • Arch. and eng.

Sciences Social srv. Legal Education Arts, design, etc. Healthcare Healthcare support Protective srv Food prep and srv. Cleaning and maint. Personal care and srv Sales Office Farming Construction

  • Maint. and repair

Production Transportation

5 10 15 20 25 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Percent Not in Labor Force Percent Unemployed

2013 – 2015 Average

29 Low Skill or Seasonal Middle Skill High Skill

Source: IPUMS USA

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Top Skills Needed for Employment in the Region

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Instructing Persuasion Active Learning Complex Problem Solving Writing Time Management Service Orientation Judgment and DecisionMaking Coordination Monitoring Socia lPerceptiveness Reading Comprehension Critical Thinking Speaking Active Listening O*NET Score

Top Skills

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Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight and O*NET

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

GEOGRAPHIC MISMATCH

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Challenges

  • Transportation is a barrier for many workers in the region

– Car ownership is an expense many low-skill workers cannot afford – Low-skill employment is rarely near employment centers

  • Rideshare programs are often underutilized
  • Public transit is often difficult to coordinate with childcare and
  • ther needs
  • What else?

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Employees might not live near job opportunities

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Where the Job are Located

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Transportation Access is Critical to Finding and Keeping Employment

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

EMPLOYEE PREFERENCES MISMATCHES

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Factors that are Known to Cause Turnover

  • Age
  • Wages
  • Workplace environment

– Culture – Inconsistent or limited work schedules – Social supports

  • Work-life balance, childcare, transportation, work hours, leave time
  • Occupation or work type preferences
  • Economic conditions

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Impact of Age and Economic Conditions on Turnover

5 10 15 20 25 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Turnover Percent

Turnover by Age (four quarter moving average)

19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

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Source: US Census Quarterly Workforce Indicators

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Age of Exploration

  • Youth is associated with higher turnover rates
  • The median length of time 20- to 24-year-olds spend in a job is just 16 months
  • Younger workers changing jobs in order to find their

preferences

– Exploring industries and occupations – Exploring workplace environments – Exploring commutes

  • Younger workers are also more willing to move to other

regions or states for a number of reasons

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Employee Preferences

  • Preferences influence career choice decisions and are

critical determinants of job attitudes and work motivation

  • 60% of employees state the “ability to do what they do

best” is very important to them regarding their job

  • Research on “affective forecasting” shows that people are

bad at predicting how much they will like something in the future (including jobs)

  • Losing an employee is costly to employers

– It costs between $2,000 and $7,000 to replace an employee

Souces: Gallup. “The Dream Job.” March 1, 2017. Wilson, Timothy D., and Daniel T. Gilbert. "Affective forecasting." Advances in experimental social psychology 35 (2003): 345-411. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employee Tenure in 2016.” September 22, 2016. Dube, Arindrajit, Eric Freeman, and Michael Reich. “Employee Replacement Costs. IRLE Working Paper #201-10. March 2010.

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

AGRICULTURE FOCUS

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UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

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UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

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UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

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UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

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UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

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UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

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UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

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UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE

FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Next Steps

  • How can we do to improve information flow between

employers and jobseekers?

  • What can be done to lower turnover?
  • We will synthesize input from various meetings with collected

data in order to develop strategies to address current inefficiencies

– Explore the current efforts to improve labor market conditions

  • Continue the conversation