Talent Match Lee Adams W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Overview of Presentation • Primary Findings • Discussion of Current Conditions and Employment Pipeline • Discussion of Inefficiencies in the Labor Market – Education and Employment Mismatch – Skills and Employment Mismatch – Geographic Mismatch – Employee Preference Mismatches W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 2 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
PRIMARY FINDINGS W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 3 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Major Trends • Shortage of qualified workers – The region will need to cultivate and attract qualified workers • Many workers are underemployed or feel at risk of losing their jobs • For many job postings (except in health), education requirements surpass the education attainment levels of the current workforce – Job postings are often inaccurate • Too many students are not appropriately trained for the workforce upon graduation W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 4 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
An Overly Simplified Picture of the Region’s Labor Demand/Supply Factors Labor Demand (Job creation or contraction- directly or through temp services – by existing, relocating, or start-ups firms) Labor Supply (Emerging workforce (coming of age & graduates) + existing workers + workers rejoining the workforce + net migrants + net commuters – workers leaving the workforce) W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 5 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
An Overly Simplified Picture of Changes to the Regional Labor Market Labor Demand = Labor Supply, when Employers offer preferred: • Wages and benefits • Employment conditions (hours, scheduling, stability of the work environment, work type) Job Seekers: • Are able to fulfill the requirements of the position or are able to access necessary training opportunities • Have support structures, e.g. childcare, and reliable transportation Clearly, this equation is impacted by inefficiencies found in both sides of the equation W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 6 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 7 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Unemployment Rates Have Fully Recovered Unemployment Rate 16 14 Percent of Labor Force 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Region 8 Michigan United States W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 8 Source: US Census Population Estimates and Bureau of Labor Statistics FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
However, Labor Force Participation Has Not Labor Force Participation 68 Percent of Population 16 and Over 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Region 8 Michigan United States W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 9 Source: US Census Population Estimates and Bureau of Labor Statistics FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Age Distribution of Employees Age Distribution of the Employed 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 SW MI Michigan United States 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and over W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 10 Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2011-2015 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
The Region’s Workforce Tends to be Older Except in Kalamazoo County Age Distribution of the Employed WMU and Kalamazoo College attract 30 talent; how can the region keep them? 25 Percent of Age Group 20 15 10 5 0 Berrien Branch Calhoun Cass Kalamazoo St. Joseph Van Buren 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and over W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 11 Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2011-2015 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
The Region Will Become More Dependent on Newcomers - Will We be Able to Attract Them? 700,000 600,000 Unexplained Gap 500,000 In-Migration 400,000 Workers Age 50 to 64 300,000 200,000 Age 18 to 49 100,000 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 12 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Total Migration by County Migration 16 14 12 Percent of Total 10 8 6 4 2 0 Berrien Branch Calhoun Cass Kalamazoo St. Joseph Van Buren In-migrants (including regional) Out-migrants (including regional) W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 13 Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2011-2015 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Younger Segments of the Population Tend to Move Relatively Frequently Migration Age 25 to 29 16 14 12 Percent of Total 10 8 6 4 2 0 Berrien Branch Calhoun Cass Kalamazoo St. Joseph Van Buren In 25-29 Out 25-29 W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 14 Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2011-2015 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
30-34 Year Old's Move a Little Less but Still More than Average Migration Age 30 to 34 16 14 12 Percent of Total 10 8 6 4 2 0 Berrien Branch Calhoun Cass Kalamazoo St. Joseph Van Buren In 30 to 34 Out 30 to 34 W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 15 Source: US Census American Community Survey, 2011-2015 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT MISMATCH W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 16 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
What are the Challenges? • Many students leave the education system unprepared for the workforce • There are leaks throughout the K-12 pipeline • Evidence suggests there is a mismatch between employer’s stated expectations and the education attainment levels of jobseekers W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 17 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Student Success – Back of the envelope estimation (KRESA) K – 3 rd Grade Approximately 60% of students perform well ( 1,800 students) 40% are struggling (1,200 students) Total students: 3,000 W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 18 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Student Success – Back of the envelope estimation (KRESA) K – 3 rd Grade 3 rd Grade to 12 th Grade Approximately 60% Approx. 95%, plus 30% of the struggling of students perform complete high school well ( 1,800 students) (2,150 students) 40% are struggling 400 students complete H.S. 30% catch up 350 students (1,200 students) 200 students complete high school 650 students off track 130 students earn diploma in 2 yrs Total students: 3,000 Approx. 750 students (25%) don’t graduate W.E. on time. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 19 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Student Success – Back of the envelope estimation (KRESA) K – 3 rd Grade 3 rd Grade to 12 th Grade College in one year 650 4-yr grads Approximately 60% 950 to 4-yr 100 2-yr grads Approx. 95% complete school and of students perform high school 700 to CC well ( 1,800 students) 1,300 drop out (2,150 students) 40% are struggling 400 students complete H.S. 30% catch up 350 students (1,200 students) 200 students complete high school 650 students off track 130 students earn diploma in 2 yrs Total students: 3,000 Approx. 750 On average, 12 percent of students (25%) community college students don’t graduate complete and 70 percent of four- W.E. year students complete. on time. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 20 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
The Region is Far Below the Education Levels Future Work will Demand Associates Degree or Higher 70 65 60 Percent of Over 25 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Current Trend Projected Trend W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 21 Source: IPUMS USA FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Posted Openings and Completions Do Not Match Post-Secondary Completions and Posted Employment Business Health Transportation Health care has established clear Personal/culinary Precision production certification programs for many of its Comp/IT Engineering tech occupations which enhances the job Mechanic and repair match. Construction trades Visual perf. arts Education Physical sciences Prof. services Public admin./social serv. Legal Agriculture 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Percent of total Post-secondary completions Posted jobs W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 22 Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Only One Half of the Job Postings Include Educational Requirements Job Postings in 2016 High School or Voc. Training, 13,683, 24% Unknown, 27,277, 48% Associate's, 3,081, 6% Bachelor's, 10,623, 19% Graduate, 1,885, 3% W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 23 Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
SKILLS AND EMPLOYMENT MISMATCH W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 24 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Challenges • Certain skills are needed in the region, but those looking for work may not possess them • Attaining the skills needed is not straightforward – Many are soft-skills and difficult measure • What else? W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 25 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Regional Concentrations of Occupations Transportation Production Office and Administrative Support Management Sales and Related Healthcare Practitioners Education, Training, and Library Construction Maintenance and Repair Food Prep and Serving Business and Finance Cleaning and Maintenance Healthcare Support Personal Care and Service Architecture and Engineering Computer and Mathematical Protective Service Community and Social Service Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Life, Physical, and Social Science Farming, etc Legal 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Percent of Employed in the Region High Skill Low or Seasonal Middle Skill W.E. UPJOHN INSTITUTE 26 FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
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