Tackling unemployment: cyclical factors, structural shifts and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Oct 08, 2022 160 likes •332 views

Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward Tackling unemployment: cyclical factors, structural shifts and policy implications Daphne Nicolitsas Bank of Greece ELIAMEP Crisis

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Tackling unemployment: cyclical factors, structural shifts and policy implications

Daphne Nicolitsas

Bank of Greece

ELIAMEP Crisis Observatory 1st Annual Conference Athens, 13 Dec 2013

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Outline

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Cross-country unemployment developments

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Focus on Greece

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Institutions

4

Competitiveness

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Trust

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Going forward

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

The unemployment rate increased in most advanced countries

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Youth have suffered most

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Disproportionate share of unemployed amongst the young

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

In a few countries unemployment continues increasing despite positive growth rates

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Contrasting developments

The German ‘miracle’ The USA ‘paradox’

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Changes in the unemployment rate: actual and implied

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

The overreaction was expected

Table: Possible ways to to contain operating costs in the event of a permanent demand shock (% of firms) Procedure Unskilled Skilled Employment reduction- indefinite contracts 25.6 21.3 Employment reduction - fixed-term contracts 21.9 10.0 Freezing wages or contained wage increases 22.1 25.4 Working time adjustment 18.9 22.1 Reduction of flexible labour cost 10.1 17.2 Reduction of other operating costs 1.4 4.0 100.0 100.0

Source: BoG WDN Survey data

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Not enough attention was paid to the deterioration in competitiveness

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Non-tradables expanded more than tradables prior to the crisis

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Worker reallocation between firms is low in Greece

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Greece ranks low in trust rankings

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

The importance of trust between the social partners cannot be overstated

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Hirings have picked up

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Strong upward trends in human capital accumulation

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas

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Cross-country unemployment developments Focus on Greece Institutions Competitiveness Trust Going forward

Thank you

...for your attention

Tackling unemployment Nicolitsas