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❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡

P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ❑r✐st✐♥ ❱♦❣❡❧✶✱ ❈❛rst❡♥ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✶✱ ❇r✉♥♦ ▼❡r③✷✱ ❍❡✐❞✐ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✷✱ ❋r❛♥❦ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠✶

✶ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ✷ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠

✷✵✳✵✾✳✷✵✶✷

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ Pr♦❜❧❡♠

◆❛t✉r❛❧ ❍❛③❛r❞s

❋❧♦♦❞ ✇❛t❡r ❊❛rt❤q✉❛❦❡ ❚s✉♥❛♠✐ ▲❛♥❞s❧✐❞❡

◮ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① ♣r♦❝❡ss❡s✱ ♥♦t ✇❡❧❧ ✉♥❞❡rst♦♦❞ ◮ ♠❛♥② ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❢❛❝t♦rs ◮ ✉♥❝❡rt❛✐♥t② ✐♥ ✭♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧❧② ♦❜s❡r✈❛❜❧❡✮ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥

♠♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❢r❛♠❡✇♦r❦s

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ Pr♦❜❧❡♠

❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦s

❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ♥♦♥✲❞❡t❡r♠✐♥✐st✐❝ s②st❡♠s ❛♥❞ ♣r♦❝❡ss❡s✱ ❝❛♣t✉r✐♥❣ ✭✐♥✲✮❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❡s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r❡st

◮ ❛❧❧♦✇ ✐♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❞♦♠❛✐♥

❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣❡

◮ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ✉♣❞❛t❡❞ ❢♦r ♥❡✇

♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s

◮ ❛❧❧♦✇ r❡❛s♦♥✐♥❣ ✉♥❞❡r ❛♥❞

♣r♦♣❛❣❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✉♥❝❡rt❛✐♥t②

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ Pr♦❜❧❡♠

♦❢t❡♥ ❢❛❝❡❞ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s

❞✐s❝r❡t✐③❛t✐♦♥✿ ♠❛♥② ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛r❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s ✭❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥❛❧ ❢♦r♠ s♦♠❡t✐♠❡s ✉♥❦♥♦✇♥✮ ♦r ❞✐s❝r❡t❡ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ st❛t❡s❀ ❢♦r ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❢r❡❡ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛r❡ ❞✐s❝r❡t✐③❡❞ ❤✐❣❤ r❡s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❛r❣❡t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✿ ♠❛✐♥ ✐♥t❡r❡st ✐s ♦❢t❡♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❛r❣❡t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡❀ t❤❡ ❞✐s❝r❡t✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✉s❡❞ ❢♦r ♥❡t✇♦r❦ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ✐s q✉✐t❡ ❝♦❛rs❡

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ Pr♦❜❧❡♠

❋❧♦♦❞ ❞❛♠❛❣❡ ❛ss❡ss♠❡♥t ✲ ❞❛t❛s❡t

◮ ✷✵✵✷ ❛♥❞ ✷✵✵✺✴✷✵✵✻ ✢♦♦❞s ✐♥ ❊❧❜❡

❛♥❞ ❉❛♥✉❜❡ ❝❛t❝❤♠❡♥ts ✭●❡r♠❛♥②✮

◮ ✷✽ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♥❣ ✢♦♦❞ ❡✈❡♥t✱

❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣s✱ ♣r❡❝❛✉t✐♦♥✱ ✇❛r♥✐♥❣✱ s♦❝✐♦✲❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❢❛❝t♦rs

◮ t❛r❣❡t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✿ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❧♦ss ◮ ✶✶✸✺ ♣❛rt❧② ♠✐ss✐♥❣ ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

❙❝♦r✐♥❣ ♠❡tr✐❝

❇◆ ▼❆P s❝♦r❡ ❢♦r ❇◆ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✿ s❡❛r❝❤✐♥❣ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣❛✐r ♦❢ ♥❡t✇♦r❦ str✉❝t✉r❡ ✭❉❆●✮ ❛♥❞ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ✭Θ✮✱ t❤❛t ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ❥♦✐♥t ♣♦st❡r✐♦r P(❉❆●, Θ|❞) ∝ P(❞|❉❆●, Θ)P(❉❆●, Θ) ∝ P(❞|❉❆●, Θ)P(Θ|❉❆●)P(❉❆●) P(❞|❉❆●, Θ) ♠✉❧t✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ❞✐s❝r❡t❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s P(Θ|❉❆●) ❞❡✜♥❡❞ t♦ ❜❡ ❛ ♣r♦❞✉❝t ❉✐r✐❝❤❧❡t ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ P(❉❆●) ❞❡✜♥❡❞ t♦ ❜❡ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠ ♦✈❡r ❉❆●s → ✐❣♥♦r❡❞

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

❙❝♦r✐♥❣ ♠❡tr✐❝

❇◆ ▼❆P s❝♦r❡ ❢♦r ❇◆ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣✿ s❡❛r❝❤✐♥❣ ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣❛✐r ♦❢ ♥❡t✇♦r❦ str✉❝t✉r❡ ✭❉❆●✮ ❛♥❞ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ✭Θ✮✱ t❤❛t ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ❥♦✐♥t ♣♦st❡r✐♦r P(❉❆●, Θ|❞) ∝ P(❞|❉❆●, Θ)P(❉❆●, Θ) ❇◆ ▼❆P s❝♦r❡ ❢♦r ❇◆ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞✐s❝r❡t✐③❛t✐♦♥✿ s❡❛r❝❤✐♥❣ ❢♦r t❤❡ tr✐♣❧❡ ♦❢ ♥❡t✇♦r❦ str✉❝t✉r❡ ✭❉❆●✮ ❛♥❞ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ✭Θ✮ ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❝r❡t✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✭Λ✮✱ t❤❛t ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ t❤❡ ❥♦✐♥t ♣♦st❡r✐♦r P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ|❞ ❝) ∝ P(❞ ❝|❉❆●, Θ, Λ)P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ)

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ|❞ ❝) ∝ P(❞ ❝|❉❆●, Θ, Λ)P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ) = P(❞|❉❆●, Θ, Λ)P(❞ ❝|❞, Λ) × P(Θ|❉❆●, Λ)P(Λ|❉❆●)P(❉❆●)

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ|❞ ❝) ∝ P(❞ ❝|❉❆●, Θ, Λ)P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ) = P(❞|❉❆●, Θ, Λ)P(❞ ❝|❞, Λ) × P(Θ|❉❆●, Λ)P(Λ|❉❆●)P(❉❆●)

▼♦♥t✐✱ ❈♦♦♣❡r❀ ✶✾✾✽

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ|❞ ❝) ∝ P(❞ ❝|❉❆●, Θ, Λ)P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ) = P(❞|❉❆●, Θ, Λ)P(❞ ❝|❞, Λ) × P(Θ|❉❆●, Λ)P(Λ|❉❆●)P(❉❆●) P(❞ ❝|❞, Λ) =

✐

• ①✐
• ✶

λ①✐ −λ①✐

♥(①✐) ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t ♦♥ ❉❆● ❛♥❞ Θ

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ|❞ ❝) ∝ P(❞ ❝|❉❆●, Θ, Λ)P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ) = P(❞|❉❆●, Θ, Λ)P(❞ ❝|❞, Λ) × P(Θ|❉❆●, Λ)P(Λ|❉❆●)P(❉❆●) ❛s ✐♥ ♦r✐❣✐♥❛❧ ❇◆ ▼❆P s❝♦r❡

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ|❞ ❝) ∝ P(❞ ❝|❉❆●, Θ, Λ)P(❉❆●, Θ, Λ) = P(❞|❉❆●, Θ, Λ)P(❞ ❝|❞, Λ) × P(Θ|❉❆●, Λ)P(Λ|❉❆●)P(❉❆●) P(Λ|❉❆●) ❞❡✜♥❡❞ t♦ ❜❡ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠ ♦✈❡r Λs → ✐❣♥♦r❡❞

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

❧❡❛r♥❡❞ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s t❛r❣❡t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥

◮ t❛r❣❡t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❧♦ss✱ ✐s ❞✐s❝r❡t✐③❡❞ ✐♥t♦ ✺

✐♥t❡r✈❛❧s

◮ r❡s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♠✐❣❤t ❜❡ ♥♦t s✉✣❝✐❡♥t ✭❡✳❣✳ ❢♦r ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥

♠❛❦❡rs✮

◮ ❛✐♠ t♦ ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡

❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s

◮ r❡❞✐s❝r❡t✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❛r❣❡t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡

✐♥t♦ ♠❛♥② ✭❡✳❣✳ ✺✶✷✮ ❜✐♥s ❛♥❞ ❛❞♦♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❡st✐♠❛t❡s

−12 −10 −8 −6 −4 −2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 conditional probability of building loss log loss

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s t❛r❣❡t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥

◮ t❛r❣❡t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❧♦ss✱ ✐s ❞✐s❝r❡t✐③❡❞ ✐♥t♦ ✺

✐♥t❡r✈❛❧s

◮ r❡s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♠✐❣❤t ❜❡ ♥♦t s✉✣❝✐❡♥t ✭❡✳❣✳ ❢♦r ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥

♠❛❦❡rs✮

◮ ❛✐♠ t♦ ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡

❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s

◮ r❡❞✐s❝r❡t✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❛r❣❡t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡

✐♥t♦ ♠❛♥② ✭❡✳❣✳ ✺✶✷✮ ❜✐♥s ❛♥❞ ❛❞♦♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❡st✐♠❛t❡s

−12 −10 −8 −6 −4 −2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 conditional probability of building loss log loss

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

❛❞❛♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡r ❡st✐♠❛t❡s

❤✐❣❤ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ st❛t❡s → ❢❡✇ ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ♣❡r st❛t❡ ✉s✉❛❧ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ ❡st✐♠❛t♦r ❧❡❛❞s t♦ ✇❡❛❦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡✿ ●❛✉ss✐❛♥ ❦❡r♥❡❧ ❞❡♥s✐t② ❡st✐♠❛t♦r ❝♦♥s✐❞❡rs ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♥❡✐❣❤❜♦✉r✐♥❣ st❛t❡s ❛s ✇❡❧❧

◮ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t❡ ❦❡r♥❡❧ ❞❡♥s✐t② ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤

♠✐❞♣♦✐♥t ♦❢ t❤❡ ✺✶✷ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧s

◮ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ st❛t❡ ✐s

❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ❛s

❞❡♥s✐t② ♦❢ ♠✐❞♣♦✐♥t × ✇✐❞t❤ ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ▼❡t❤♦❞s

▼✐①t✉r❡s ♦❢ tr✉♥❝❛t❡❞ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥t✐❛❧

◮ ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❦❡r♥❡❧ ❞❡♥s✐t② ❡st✐♠❛t♦r r❡q✉✐r❡s ❧❛r❣❡

♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs❀ ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ❜❡❝♦♠❡s t✐♠❡ ❛♥❞ s♣❛❝❡ ❝♦♥s✉♠✐♥❣

◮ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡ ✇✐t❤ ❧❡ss ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs✿ ▼✐①t✉r❡s ♦❢ tr✉♥❝❛t❡❞

❡①♣♦♥❡♥t✐❛❧s

◮ ❛❧❧♦✇s s✐♠✉❧t❛♥❡♦✉s ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s❡✈❡r❛❧ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s

✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥s

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❈♦♠♣❛r✐s♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❝✉rr❡♥t❧② ✉s❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧s

st❛❣❡✲❞❛♠❛❣❡✲❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✿ r♦♦t ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ✜tt❡❞ t♦ ❞❛♠❛❣❡ ❞❛t❛ ♦❢ ❝❡rt❛✐♥ ♦❜❥❡❝t ❝❧❛ss❡s❀ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇❛t❡r ❞❡♣t❤ ♦♥❧② ❋▲❊▼❖♣s✰r✿ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ❢r♦♠ s❛♠❡ ❞❛t❛s❡t ✭❊❧♠❡r ❡t ❛❧✳✱✷✵✶✵✮✱ ❞✐✈✐❞✐♥❣ ❞❛t❛ ✐♥t♦ s✉❜s❛♠♣❧❡s ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ✐♥✉♥❞❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡♣t❤✱ ✢♦♦❞ ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝②✱ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ t②♣❡s✱ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ q✉❛❧✐t②✱ ❝♦♥t❛♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥✱ ♣r✐✈❛t❡ ♣r❡❝❛✉t✐♦♥❀ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t✐♥❣ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❧♦ss ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ❝❧❛ss

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❝♦♠♣❛r❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ t❛r❣❡t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❧♦ss

❞r❛✇ ✶✵✵ ❜♦♦tstr❛♣ s❛♠♣❧❡s✱ ❡❛❝❤ ✇✐t❤ ✶✵✵ ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❧♦ss ✐s q✉❛♥t✐✜❡❞ ❜② r♦♦t ♠❡❛♥ sq✉❛r❡❞ ❡rr♦r ❛♥❞ P❡❛rs♦♥ ❝♦r✲ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥t

sd−f FL BN 0.08 0.12 0.16 RMSE

• sd−f

FL BN 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 correlation coefficiant

❚❤❡ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ ♣❡r❢♦r♠s ❝♦♠♣❛r❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❋▲❊▼❖♣s✰r ✏❜❡st✑ ♠❡t❤♦❞ ❝✉rr❡♥t❧② ✐♥ ✉s❡✮✱ ❡✈❡♥t❤♦✉❣❤ ✐t ✐s ❞❡s✐❣♥❡❞ t♦ ❣✐✈❡ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ t❛r❣❡t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ❜✉t ♦♥ t❤❡ ❥♦✐♥t ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❋❧♦♦❞ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■♥✢✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ❋❛❝t♦rs✿ ❆ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥ ◆❡t✇♦r❦ P❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❋✉rt❤❡r ✇♦r❦

◮ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❡❛r♥❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧ str✉❝t✉r❡ ◮ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡ ❡①♣❡rt ❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣❡ ◮ ❜❡tt❡r ❤❛♥❞❧✐♥❣ ♦❢ ♠✐ss✐♥❣ ✈❛❧✉❡s ◮ ✉s❡ ▼❚❊s ❢♦r ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥s

❑✳ ❱♦❣❡❧✱ ❈✳ ❘✐❣❣❡❧s❡♥✱ ❇✳ ▼❡r③✱ ❍✳ ❑r❡✐❜✐❝❤✱ ❋✳ ❙❝❤❡r❜❛✉♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ P♦ts❞❛♠✱ ●❋❩ P♦ts❞❛♠ P●▼ ✷✵✶✷ ✲ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s