T HE 2012 A MERICAN V ALUES S URVEY How Catholics and the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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T HE 2012 A MERICAN V ALUES S URVEY How Catholics and the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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T HE 2012 A MERICAN V ALUES S URVEY How Catholics and the Unaffiliated Will Shape the 2012 Elections and Beyond Public Public Religion Religion Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO Daniel Cox, Director of Research Research Research Juhem

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Public Religion Research Institute

  • Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO

Daniel Cox, Director of Research Juhem Navarro-Rivera, Research Associate

THE 2012 AMERICAN VALUES SURVEY

How Catholics and the Unaffiliated Will Shape the 2012 Elections and Beyond

Public Religion Research Institute

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SLIDE 2

Survey Methodology

  • Fourth annual American Values Survey
  • Sample Size: N = 3,003 Americans (MOE = +/- 2.0

percentage points)

  • Conducted between September 13 and September 30, 2012
  • Bilingual (English and Spanish) telephone interviews (1,201

reached by cell phone)

  • Wave one of two-wave study (pre- and post-election)
  • Funded by Ford Foundation and the Nathan Cummings

Foundation

The 2012 American Values Survey 2

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SLIDE 3

RELIGIOUS CHANGE IN AMERICA

The 2012 American Values Survey 3

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SLIDE 4

Childhood Affiliation Current Affiliation Net Gain/Loss Catholic 31.4 22.0

  • 9.4

White Mainline Protestant 18.7 14.9

  • 3.8

Black Protestant 9.4 8.5

  • 0.9

White Evangelical Protestant 20.3 19.9

  • 0.4

Other Christian 9.5 10.4 0.9 Non-Christian Religious 3.7 5.7 2 Unaffiliated 7 18.6 11.6

Changes from Childhood Religion

The 2012 American Values Survey 4

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SLIDE 5

Religious Affiliation by Generation

The 2012 American Values Survey 5

32 19 14 9 9 18 25 30 12 14 15 20 8 13 18 19 10 11 6 5 11 8 10 6 13 11 8 7 6 6 5 4 20 40 60 80 100 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Unaffiliated White Evangelical Protestant White Mainline Protestant White Catholic Hispanic/Other Catholic Black Protestant Other Christian Non-Christian Religious

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Reasons for Leaving Childhood Religion

The 2012 American Values Survey 6

23 11 8 16 8 5 4 2 5 5 12 Don't believe in God/Teachings Personal experience/Grew out of it Goes against science and logic Dislike organized religion/Religion causes problems Hypocritical Judgmental/Controlling Social/Sexuality issues Sex abuse scandal within Catholic Church Busy/Not interested No reason/Not sure Other/Don't Know

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UNDERSTANDING THE RELIGIOUSLY UNAFFILIATED OR “THE NONES”

Atheists and Agnostics Seculars Unattached Believers

The 2012 American Values Survey 7

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The Three Faces of the Unaffiliated

The 2012 American Values Survey 8

39 36 23 1 Secular Atheist/Agnostic Unattached Believers Uncategorized

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Religious Beliefs of Unaffiliated

The 2012 American Values Survey 9

6 30 69 30 42 26 56 24 8 4 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Atheist/ Agnostic Secular Unattached Believers God is a person God is an impersonal force I do not believe in God Other/Don't know/Refused (VOL.)

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Racial/Ethnic Difference among Unaffiliated Subgroups

The 2012 American Values Survey 10

76 64 56 10 14 12 2 7 23 10 10 7 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Atheist/ Agnostic Secular Unattached Believers White, Non-Hispanic Hispanic Black Other/Mixed Race DK/Refused

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UNDERSTANDING THE COMPLEXITY OF AMERICAN CATHOLICS

“Social Justice” vs. “Right to Life” Catholics

The 2012 American Values Survey 11

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Social Justice vs. Right to Life Orientations Among Catholics and Former Catholics

The 2012 American Values Survey 12

60 63 52 66 51 31 27 40 27 36 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

All Catholics White Catholics Hispanic Catholics Catholics who attend monthly or less Catholics who attend weekly or more

Social justice and the obligation to help the poor Issues like abortion and the right to life

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Ethnic Complexity among Catholics: Differences between Whites & Hispanics

The 2012 American Values Survey 13

40 48 55 59 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Abortion should be Illegal all/most cases Favor life in prison over death penalty White Catholics Hispanic Catholics

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THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Religion and Voting Coalitions

The 2012 American Values Survey 14

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Most Important Issues Influencing Vote Among Likely Voters

The 2012 American Values Survey 15

1 1 2 8 14 8 66 3 2 3 3 6 29 54 3 1 2 4 9 18 61 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Other/Don't Know/Refused Same-sex marriage Immigration Abortion National security Health care The Economy Republicans Democrats All Americans

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Religious Voting Coalitions Among Likely Voters

The 2012 American Values Survey 16

9 15 14 8 6 18 7 23 White Evangelical Protestant White Mainline Protestant White Catholic Hispanic/Other Catholic Other Christian Black Protestant Non-Christian Religious Unaffiliated 37 19 19 3 11 * 2 8

Obama’s Coalition Romney’s Coalition

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Presidential Vote by Religion Among Likely Voters

The 2012 American Values Survey 17

20 45 49 73 97 76 52 47 22 2 20 40 60 80 100 Obama Romney White Evangelical Protestants White Mainline Protestants Catholic Religiously Unaffiliated Black Protestant

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Complexity of Catholic Voters By Ethnicity and Gender

The 2012 American Values Survey 18

49 71 54 42 42 47 23 42 54 54 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 All Catholics Hispanic * Women White Men Obama Romney

*Note: Hispanic Catholic results are among registered voters and represent small sample size (n=98).

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Complexity of Catholic Voters By Religious Orientation and Behavior

The 2012 American Values Survey 19

49 37 59 27 60 47 59 36 67 37 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% All Catholic Voters Attend Weekly/More (45% of voters) Attend Monthly/Less (55% of voters) Right to life (28% of Voters) Social Justice (63% of voters) Obama Romney Other/DK

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CONTRACEPTION AND GENDER ROLES

The 2012 American Values Survey 20

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Contraception Mandate and Religious Objections

The 2012 American Values Survey 21

45 54 56 50 57 56 10 20 30 40 50 60 White Catholics All Catholics All Americans Yes, Even if Organization has Religious Objections Yes, Religious Objections Not Specified Religiously affiliated colleges and hospitals should have to provide employees with no-cost contraception coverage.

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Women and Raising Children

The 2012 American Values Survey 22

Women are naturally better suited to raise children than men. Percent who agree

54 47 48 62 69 54 52 51 49 65 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 All Americans 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Men Women

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LOOKING AHEAD: IMPORTANCE OF VOTER ENGAGEMENT

The 2012 American Values Survey 23

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Voter Engagement Among Unaffiliated and Catholics

The 2012 American Values Survey 24

19 16 6 6 10 8 8 9 8 5 14 16 15 17 20 23 50 100 All Americans Likely Voters White evangelical White mainline White Catholic Hispanic/Other Catholic Black protestant Other Christian Non-Christian Unaffiliated

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Public Religion Research Institute

  • Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO

Daniel Cox, Director of Research Juhem Navarro-Rivera, Research Associate

The 2012 American Values Survey

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How Catholics and the Unaffiliated Will Shape the 2012 Elections and Beyond