Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference - 28 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

Systems thinking in force design

Systems Modelling Conference - 28 Sep 17 Australian Defence Force Academy, UNSW Canberra

• Dr. Donald Lowe and Dr. Andrew Flahive

Joint and OperaGons Analysis Division Defence Science and Technology Group

For further informaGon, please contact: Donald Lowe e: donald.lowe@dst.defence.gov.au p: +61-2-6128 6463

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

The relevance of Complex Systems

It is often recognised that the ADF is a Complex System (CS)

V B D A C E W Y X Z F B M H G I K N L J

less attention is given to the fact that the Defence Department is also a Complex System

CDF VCDF CA CAF CN CJC FD FID CIOG CASG JOC XX ZZ YY CC AA BB WW QQ MM Designs

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

Defence Force Design decision-making

Force design is also a process of numerous and connected decisions.

V B D A C E W Y X Z F B M H G I K N L J

Defence decision-making processes are generated based upon the decision-rights ascribed by this structure.

CDF VCDF CA CAF CN CJC FD FID CIOG CASG JOC XX ZZ YY CC AA BB WW QQ MM Designs

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

CDF VCDF CA CAF CN CJC FD FID CIOG CASG JOC XX ZZ YY CC AA BB WW QQ MM

Defence Force Design decision-making

V B D A C E W Y X Z F B M H G I K N L J

The Defence Department has traditionally aimed to manage this process …

Project Project Project Project Project Project Project Project Project Project Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc

Touch Points Touch Points Touch Points Touch Points

CommiIee CommiIee CommiIee CommiIee

Defence Organisation

Designs? Can systems thinking help us improve this process? Force Design

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

Designs?

Some early thinking into systems that design

• ther systems – Conway’s Law

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Project Project Project Project Project Project Project Project Project Project Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Doc Touch Points Touch Points Touch Points Touch Points CommiIee CommiIee CommiIee CommiIee Defence Organisation Force Design

CONWAY’s Law

“…organizations which design systems (in the broad sense used here) are constrained to produce designs which are copies of the communication structures of these

• rganizations.”

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

Our Approach…

V B D A C E W Y X Z F B M H G I K N L J

Defence Organisation Force Design

Articulate the Dependencies between Defence Systems in the Force Design

Enforces

Appropriate CommunicaKon

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

The management of Defence projects oYen seems like this …

Projects Program Sponsor

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

But could they be more like this … … or be[er yet …

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

A lesson from complex systems in nature

– SeparaKon – Don’t get too close to your neighbours, – Cohesion – … but don’t get too far apart from them either, – Alignment – … and move in the same direcKon as them!

These are local rules that regulate the overall system behaviour.

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

AdapGng this lesson

§ Flocking birds have a relaKvely simple

• bjecKve

– To stay together and head in the same direcGon – They use rules are based upon distance and direcGon

§ Force design has a more complicated

• bjecKve

– To create a force that is funcGonally coherent and effecGve

In order to do this, we believe you need to apply rules that reflect functional aspects of the force design

F B M H G I K N L J

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

Developing the (simplest possible) soluGon

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Force Design

§ Create funcGonal linkages between capability systems

– Treat capability dependencies as service exchanges

§ Describe the funcGons of capability systems using a minimalist set

– The SCMILE framework

§ Incorporate local rules in order to regulate system behaviour

– Direct providers and consumers of services to align expectaKons of the service exchange

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

Developing the (simplest possible) soluGon

V B D A C E W Y X Z F B M H G I K N L J

Force Design Aiming for projects to mimic flocking behaviour Enforces Defence Organisation

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

A capability dependency as a service exchange

§ Our approach is to model a capability dependency as a service exchange between a provider enKty and a consumer enKty. § There are two sides to a successful service exchange:

– the consumer that wants it and has specific requirements regarding the service – the provider that needs to deliver a service that meets these requirements

§ A service-based approach is one that models a system (or system-of-systems) as an exchange of services

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

A person as a set of SCMILE funcGons

(and potenGal services)

Think Walk Talk Act

Person Function

See Sensing Think Command & Control Act Engagement Talk Information Mobility Walk Physical Mobility “Live” Logistics, Supply, Sustainment and Support

Maggie from The Walking Dead*

* AMC, FOX Networks

See “Live”

A cake baked by Glenn

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

What is the SCMILE framework?

Service Short Description

Sensing The provision of information regarding the battlespace and wider operational environment. Command & Control The provision of sense-making, decision-making and instructions for agents and analysis of the battlespace and wider operational environment. Engagement The provision of effects, in and on the battlespace and wider operational environment. Information Mobility The provision of information storage and dissemination, covering infrastructure, activity and processes. Physical Mobility The provision of housing and locomotive ability (movement, transport and containment). Logistics, Supply, Sustainment and Support The provision of activities, physical materials and information that enable the normal functioning of a system or agent.

It is important for the services chosen to have definitions that are, as far as is practical, (1) clear, (2) concise, (3) intuitive, (4) distinct and (5) complete as a set.

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

How are we applying the SCMILE approach to force design management?

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

A small example of entering service exchange data …

Consider a system consisting of capabilities V, W, X, Y and Z. In this example, we are

• nly examining the

SENSING service (this needs to be done for all

• ther five service

exchanges).

V W Y X Z

The SME for capability V considers the capability as

• a PROVIDER and
• a CONSUMER,
• f Sensing services to

and from the other capabilities.

S V W X Y Z V ? ? ? ? W ? X ? Y ? Z ? CONSUMER PROVIDER

… i.e. only one row and

• ne column

S V W X Y Z V ? ? ? ? W X Y Z CONSUMER PROVIDER

S V W X Y Z V W ? X ? Y ? Z ? PROVIDER CONSUMER

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

… from the perspecGve of each capability …

S V W X Y Z V

• W

X Y Z CONSUMER PROVIDER S V W X Y Z V W

• X
• Y

Z

• CONSUMER

PROVIDER

The SME first considers whether they believe a service exchange exists at all …

CAPABILITIES AS CONSUMERS ONLY CAPABILITIES AS PROVIDERS ONLY

… and if so, what is the level of criticality (i.e. how important) of the service exchange. S V W X Y Z V 3 3 W X Y Z CONSUMER PROVIDER S V W X Y Z V W 2 X 3 Y Z 3 CONSUMER PROVIDER

• 3. __________Essential
• 2. __________Important
• 1. __________Desirable

0/BLANK ____No service exchange

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

CAPABILITIES AS PROVIDERS ONLY CAPABILITIES AS CONSUMERS ONLY

… so that service exchange data can be compared

Both agree there is NO service exchange.

S V W X Y Z V 3 3 W 3 3 X 3 3 3 3 Y 2 Z 1 CONSUMER PROVIDER S V W X Y Z V 3 W 2 2 3 X 3 3 2 3 Y 1 Z 3 1 CONSUMER PROVIDER

Both agree there IS a service exchange and the criticality level. Both agree there IS a service but NOT on the criticality level. Consumer recognises the service but the Provider doesn’t. Provider recognises the service but the Consumer doesn’t.

PROVIDERS AND CONSUMERS COMPARED

S V W X Y Z V 3,3 3,0 W 3,2 3,2 0,3 X 3,3 3,3 3,2 3,3 Y 2,1 Z 0,3 1,1 PROVIDER CONSUMER

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

Confirming and refining the service exchange data

Next steps:

• The inconsistencies are aIempted to be resolved by

the relevant provider and consumer.

• If any disagreement at the Project level conKnues, the

issue needs to be raised and resolved at the Program level.

• Senior defence decision makers can then review this
• verall design to assess whether it is as they expect

and is both affordable and effecKve.

S V W X Y Z V 3,3 3,0 W 3,2 3,2 0,3 X 3,3 3,3 3,2 3,3 Y 2,3 Z 0,3 1,1 PROVIDER CONSUMER S V W X Y Z V 3 1 W 2 2 3 X 3 3 3 3 Y 2 Z 3 1 CONSUMER PROVIDER

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

ApplicaGon

§ We are currently applying the SCMILE service based approach to six Programs. § If approved in October, it will be applied to all the Projects and Programs of the IIP. § Another perspecKve you can take is that we are in fact making use

• f Conway’s Law by exploiKng the expected dependencies of the

products to be delivered to force the respecKve managers to communicate with each other.

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

Some indicaGve data coming out

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Donald Lowe and Andrew Flahive Systems thinking in force design Systems Modelling Conference (Canberra, 28 Sep 2017)

QuesGons?

Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the following people: § The “SCMILE team” (Mark Unewisse, Frank Lui, Mr. Nick Tay, Warren Richer, Goran Torlak, Hossein Seif- Zadeh and Vlad Likic) for their direct contribuKons to the development and applicaKon of the approach § Our DST colleagues (Ivan Garanovich, Richard Taylor, Jerzy Jagiello, Yue-Jin Wang, Meredith Hue, Pin Chen and Jaci PraI) for their own parallel work and feedback § Our Defence clients in Joint IntegraKon and Concepts Assurance (JICA) Directorate who have been the most enthusiasKc marketers of the approach to the wider organisaKon

For further informaGon, please contact: Donald Lowe e: donald.lowe@dst.defence.gov.au p: +61-2-6128 6463