Surviving in a changing world: maximising the resilience of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Surviving in a changing world:

maximising the resilience of biodiversity

Prof Steve Williams

Stephen.williams@jcu.edu.au www.jcu.edu.au/ctbcc

Queensland Science & Research Priorities Protecting our biodiversity

• Understanding cumulative impacts
• Biodiversity conservation
• Optimal resource allocation
• Dealing with climatic change

Building Resilience…particularly in tropical environments

How can we use science to make more informed decisions about natural resource management?

… by understanding the processes that shape patterns of biodiversity and the factors that promote species and ecosystem resilience

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”

‐ unprecedented over millennia. ‐ The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, ‐ the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, ‐ sea level has risen, and the ‐ concentrations of greenhouse gases have

• increased. “

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report 2013

Extreme weather will become more common Heat waves; Fires; Droughts; Floods

What is Resilience?

‐ factors that influence the ability of species and ecosystems to survive in a changing and more variable environment Species characteristics

• Reproductive characteristics
• Movement potential
• Physiological tolerances
• Ecological flexibility / specialisation

Landscape (spatial context)

• Habitat area
• Habitat quality
• Connectivity
• Refugia
• Buffering of extremes – heat waves, drought, floods, cyclones

Resilience: a pragmatic definition

~ 10,000 sq km rainforest

Mike Trenerry

Most biologically rich area in Australia with many unique species: RANKED SECOND - globally most important World Heritage Area

How vulnerable is this amazing biodiversity?

Herbert River Ringtail Possum (Pseudochirops herbertensis)

5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 %

Seasonality

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Temp.

Herbert River Ringtail Possum

(Pseudochirulus herbertensis)

We We

Predicted changes in the Conservation Status of Vertebrates (endemics) of the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area

Ensemble 18 GCMs, 200+ spp, 10 years time step~1,000,000 SDMs estimating change in population size

Increasing No change Vulnerable Endangered

• Crit. End. /

Extinct

88% of the endemic vertebrate species are threatened

Increased fragmentation of species distributions

• Landscape connectivity now and into the future becomes

even more critical

Using a greater understanding

• f resilience to inform

prioritisation of resources for species and places for better policy and conservation management

Species Resilience

Biological traits of species associated with recovering from an impact and reducing extinction proneness such as:

• fecundity
• longevity
• dispersal ability
• specialisation
• behaviour

Provides a more realistic and balanced assessment of vulnerability

TAXA SPECIES Common_name Rank FROG Taudactylus rheophilus Northern Tinkerfrog 1

+19

BIRD Prionodura newtoniana Golden Bowerbird 2

+9

BIRD Sericornis keri Atherton Scrubwren 3

+17

FROG Cophixalus aenigma Tapping Nursery-Frog 4

• FROG

Cophixalus exiguus Bloomfield Nursery-Frog 5

+9

FROG Cophixalus hosmeri Pipping Nursery-Frog 6

• 5

FROG Cophixalus neglectus Tangerine Nursery-Frog 7

• 1

MAMM Dasyurus maculatus Spotted-tailed Quoll 8

+12

FROG Mixophyes carbinensis . 9

• 5

BIRD Acanthiza katherina Mountain Thornbill 10

+2

BIRD Colluricincla boweri Bowers Shrike-Thrush 11

+18

BIRD Oreoscopus gutturalis Fernwren 12

+17

FROG Cophixalus monticola Mountain Top Nursery-Frog 13

+3

FROG Cophixalus concinnus Beautiful Nursery-Frog 14

• 14

REPT Techmarscincus jigurru Bartle Frere Skink 15

• 13

Species Resilience

So by combining sophisticated spatial analyses and the biological traits of species we have a more robust assessment of the relative vulnerability of each species,but… How do we validate or test our revised estimates of resilience?? ‐ Use past climatic change as a test

Species Resilience

• Confirms our

measures of resilience successfully predict extinction proneness

• Gives us greater

confidence in the future predictions

• Allows more

confident prioritisation of species that are vulnerable (or not)

Are we already seeing changes in the vertebrates of the Wet Tropics rainforests?

Observed changes in bird population size over the last 15 years

No Change Declined

Observed changes in population size of Bridled Honeyeater

30% Decline in Bridled Honeyeater total population size across the region

Observed changes in population size of birds

Using long‐term monitoring data we show significant changes in the distributions of 28 of 56 bird species for which data were sufficient. Integrating abundance data from monitoring program with available habitat area in elevational bands, we highlight the synergistic effects of up‐slope shift and declining habitat area in driving rapid population declines in >20 species of birds, 6 of which are endemic to the region.

Mammals are also declining and moving higher…

Southern Population ‐ Lemuroid Ringtail Possum (Hemibelideus lemuroides)

600 m 800 m 1000 m

Herbert River Ringtail Possum (Pseudochirulus herbertensis)

600 m 800 m 1000 m

Mammals are also declining and moving higher…

Increasing severity of heat waves

The number of consecutive days where daily maximums were above the 90th percentile (~28 º C)

Observed changes

• Many upland species, especially regional

endemics, have already declined in abundance and moved higher up the mountains

• Species disappearing at lower edge of range
• Some lowland species have expanded into higher

elevations

• Many more species show trend but not statistically

significant yet

Landscape Resilience

Some practical examples of things that can help…..

QLD Landscape Resilience Program

Prioritisation of locations for acquisition into the protected area estate in Queensland based on landscape and climatic resilience

• Climatic stability
• Remnant vegetation
• Landscape connectivity
• Rare habitats

Identified aggregations of climate resilient properties that support existing reserves

Current status of the Landscape Resilience Program based on our collaborative work is:

• identified 39 highest resilience properties;
• 5 of the 39 properties have been purchased
• r are in in advanced stages of purchase for

addition to the Protected Area Estate. Negotiations are continuing relative to another 3.

• 1 nature refuge has been finalised of the

remaining 31 properties, with active negotiations at various stages for nature refuges on 13 of the remaining 30 properties. If all negotiations are successful, protected areas will cover 22 of the 39 identified properties (54%).

In the Wet Tropics, analysis of landscape resilience resulted in a new protected area

Mt Baldy protected!

Analysis of landscape resilience and prioritisation of areas to give the best biodiversity outcomes for rehabilitation resulted in an award winning WTMA / community reforestation project funded by Caring for Country program

Conclusions

• The biodiversity of the Wet Tropics is in trouble!!!!
• There are predictable, observable and significant declines in ~50 species

that would qualify them for a “Threatened” status under EPBC / IUCN criteria

• Future vulnerability of the biodiversity of the region is HIGH,

particularly within the regionally‐endemic species that are so significant to the outstanding universal value of the region

• Long‐term biodiversity monitoring and research can inform effective

strategies to protect our natural heritage

• Assessment of species and landscape resilience is an important tool in

designing more efficient and effective policy and management strategies

Thanks  Questions?

Research program

Understanding biodiversity

• Continued monitoring
• Predicting biodiversity change
• Species inventories
• Species (re)discovery
• Monitoring potential drivers
• Extreme events

Understanding resilience

• Vulnerability traits
• Refuges / corridors
• Adaptive potential of

biodiversity assets

• Novel dimensions
• Physiology

Decision support

• Systematic conservation

planning

• Balancing development with

biodiversity objectives

Online resources and tools

• Immediate mobility of raw research outputs
• Transformed output for direct use by general public, industry and government
• Knowledge export (local, state, national, international)