UK REAL ESTATE MARKET JOHN SLADE 1 June 2017 Agenda A CHANGING - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 June 2017

UK REAL ESTATE MARKET

JOHN SLADE

Agenda

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A CHANGING WORLD… MY CAREER ECONOMIC CHALLENGES LONDON’S BOUNCEBACKABILITY BNPPRE IS CHANGING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CHANGE

• 1. A Changing World…

• 1. A Changing World – do we still expect the unexpected?

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2016 was the year of the low probability event!

UK voted to leave the EU after historic referendum Trump defies odds to become 45th US President

Emmanuel Macron Theresa May Mark Rutte

• 1. A Changing World – Risk Index

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But what comes next? There are many risks …

Article 50 Dutch Election French Election German Election UK Election

Trump – trade wars/ real wars Middle East More severe downturn in Chinese economy Terrorism Theresa May – UK election

• 2. My Career

• 2. My Career

Management Agency/investment broker (including CBRE and DTZ) Owned my own property company

Today I am CEO of the real estate adviser for a changing world

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. Economic Challenges

• 3. Economic Challenges

80’s - 90’s Oversupply, weak economy 2007 Global Financial Crisis, Banking led 2016 Political, Brexit

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• 4. London’s Bouncebackability

• 4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability

I went on holiday in 2009 for end of August/beginning of September. When I came back the market had moved by 150 bps.

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• 4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability

We learned through our Cycology report that London will continue to provide resilience and opportunity because of its bouncebackability

• London ranks no 1 in PwC Cities of Opportunity Index –

benchmarking study of 30 leading business centres globally. Study Sept 2016

• It measures cities performance against 10 indicators including

transportation and infrastructure, ease of doing business, demographics and liveability, technology readiness and cost.

• Singapore 2nd, Toronto 3rd

…DESPITE EVERYTHING THAT I SAID ABOUT CAUTION THROUGH BREXIT, LONDON HAS MANY, MANY OTHER ATTRIBUTES THAT WILL MAKE IT A VERY SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENT LOCATION …ALL ARE MADE PRETTY WELCOME HERE, I THINK IT’S A GREAT CULTURE, LONDON IT’S A GREAT PLACE FOR PEOPLE TO BE AND THEY WANT OT BE HERE, IT’S WHERE THE TALENT IS..

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Infrastructure + Urbanisation = SMART LONDON

• 4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability

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• 4. London’s strength & bouncebackability

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TALENT: London’s employment base in London is more diverse than ever

Source: Experian / ONS

FINANCE VS MEDIATECH HEADCOUNT

• Article 50 = speculation jobs will decrease
• Finance decrease, MediaTech increase

• 4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability

Post referendum deals

Largest office deal of 2016 – Government Property Unit took 540,000 sq ft at 20 Cabot Square 7&8 St James’s Square £245m, Private Asian Elizabeth House, Waterloo £250m, Private European

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• 5. Take Advantage Of Change

• 5. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CHANGE

Adaptable Forecasting Trends Disjoint between investment & occupier – occupier market goes first so watch for signs Economics & fundamentals

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• 6. BNPPRE Is Changing

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• 6. BNPPRE IS CHANGING

2009

• Atisreal rebrands to

BNP Paribas Real Estate at bottom of the market 2012

• John Slade joins as CEO and

promises growth

• BNPPRE UK launches

property development business in the UK 2013 BNPPRE recruits 50 directors in 12 months and sets up a powerful investment business 2014

• BNPPRE recruits another 50 directors

across retail, agency, investment and regions

• BNPPRE launches its first UK

development scheme at King’s Cross 2015

• In 3 years, BNPPRE’s UK

turnover up 40% and profit up 200%

• BNPPRE announces it will

develop residential in the UK 2016

• BNPPRE launches

international retail, logistics and occupier (GCS) businesses in London 2017

• Post EU Referendum,

BNPPRE has its best ever start to the year with £1bn under offer by end Feb

What Will Happen Next?

1 June 2017

UK REAL ESTATE MARKET

JOHN SLADE