Support to the NATO NLW Concept Development and Experimentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Support to the NATO NLW Concept Development and Experimentation Working Group (SAS-094)

Alan Roland-Price SAS-094 arolandprice@scs-ltd.co.uk +44-118-909-0248

NATO Science & Technology Organisation

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STO S & T Committee S & T Board CMRE CSO 6 x Technical Panels (AVT, HFM, IST, SAS, SCI, SET) 1 x Specialist Group (NMSG)

Outline

The rationale for Non-Lethal Weapons Update on SAS-094’s progress supporting NLW Concept Development and Experimentation

– Purpose, Participation and Programme – Activities

• Concept Analysis
• NLW Analysis
• Support Concept Development
• Assessment/Refinement Using Operational Experimentation
• Co-ordination with other NLW activities

Feedback from ISMOR 29

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NLW

NATO Definition: NLW are explicitly designed and

developed to incapacitate or repel personnel, with a low probability of fatality or permanent injury, or to disable equipment, with minimal undesired damage

• r impact on the environment.

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NLW

NATO Definition: NLW are explicitly designed and

developed to incapacitate or repel personnel, with a low probability of fatality or permanent injury, or to disable equipment, with minimal undesired damage

• r impact on the environment.
• ie. Acoustic systems (flash-bangs, loud speaker arrays)

Chemical systems (tear gas, pepper sprays, irritants) Electromagnetic (laser dazzlers, tasers, RF systems) Mechanical/kinetic (blunt impact systems, nets)

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Rationale for NLW

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“We must balance our pursuit of the enemy with our efforts to minimize loss of innocent civilian life, and with our obligation to protect our troops."

General David H. Petraeus, US Army

Commander, International Security Assistance Force and Commander, US Forces Afghanistan 2011

Isolate/Segregate

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“Every citizen of Afghanistan must know ISAF will continue to do all we can to reduce casualties that affect the Afghan civilian population."

General John R. Allen, US Marine Corps

Commander, International Security Assistance Force and Commander, US Forces Afghanistan 2012

Stopping Vehicles or Vessels

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Ability to seize the initiative Need for increased decision space/time

• Act while determining intent
• Additional options for escalation/de-escalation
• Deny an area to increase engagement range & standoff
• Delay approach and increase time to respond

SAS-094 Purpose and Participation

Purpose: SAS-094 will provide analytical support for the development of

NATO and national NLW Concepts of Operations/Employment and associated operational experimentation

Participants: Belgium Canada Denmark France Germany Netherlands Norway Sweden United Kingdom United States ACO, ACT, and CMRE

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Programme

Phase 1

Through Mar 2013

Phase 2

Apr-Sep 2013

Phase 3

Oct 2013-Sep 2014

Phase 4

Oct-Dec 2014

Possible CD&E Event

Assessment/Refinement via Operational Experimentation

Final Deliverables Support Concept Development Concept Analysis NLW Analysis

Workshop

Coordination with Other NATO and National Efforts

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Environment Demographics Natural Resources Energy Economics

Dimensions (1)

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Conflict and Security Culture and Society Science, Technology and Innovation State, Non-State Actors and Global Governance

Dimensions (2)

Summary Trends and Regional Impacts

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Dimensions/ Challenges Africa Americas Antarctic Arctic Asia Europe Middle East Oceania

Environment

P P P P P P P

Demographics

P P P P P

Natural Resources

P P P P P

Energy

P P P P P

Economics

P P P P

Conflict & Security

P P P P

Culture & Society

P P P P P

Science, Technology & Innovation

P P P P P P

States, Non-state actors & global governance

P P P P P

Scenarios

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• Considered all dimensions across most regions (did not look at

Antarctic) and looked at:

• NATO references including the NATO Task List, Multiple

Futures Project, and SAS-078 Scenario List

• National sources including CAN Arctic options, USMC EoF

Mission Tasks, US Joint Vision, UK FCOC and HLOC papers

• Were developed directly from the challenges identified from

the Futures work, resulting in a focus on:

• Humanitarian assistance
• Maintaining law & order
• Protection of nationals and national interests including

energy resources, rare minerals and fishing rights.

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Scenarios

NLW Analysis Working Group

Tasks

– Analyze NLW Usage and Operational Experience – Military and law enforcement uses, NATO and national experience, lessons learned, and the role of NLW in delivering effects – Analyze current and potential NATO and national concepts to identify NLW implications, opportunities, and linkages – Assess Simulation and Analysis Tools: Identify appropriate measures, compare NLW models to address relevance for intended uses, identify caveats of use, assess the ability to support operational experimentation

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Lessons from Ongoing Operations

Challenges to Conventional War Paradigm

– Adversaries avoid overmatch by complicating engagements (operating amid the populace) and using asymmetric means – Avoiding collateral damage (especially civilian casualties) is paramount

Battle for the Narrative

– Adversaries use of incidents (including false reports) – Ability to influence local and international perceptions and support

Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS)

– Shortage of non-lethal options cited. “Tools gap” between visual methods for assessing intent and lethal force – Recognized as a vulnerability that adversaries exploit – Most CIVCAS incidents lacked any kind of enhanced warning – Recommendation: Conduct a “deep dive” to identify non-lethal capabilities and options

17 Sources: Draft report from Joint and Coalition Operational Analysis (JCOA) and Civilian Casualty Study Update for ISAF: Quick Impact Recommendations, 26 September 2011

Military Utility Operational Assessment: Vehicle Checkpoint

• Location: Ft Benning, GA, March 2012
• US Army infantry squad manned a

Snap Vehicle Checkpoint

• Assessments made with and without NLW
• With NLW:
• Soldiers had time and distance to safely assess threats,

determine intent, and decide whether to employ lethal force

• Much less likely to cause CIVCAS deaths or injuries

(similar in magnitude to CIVCAS study results)

• Increased mission effectiveness

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Military Utility Operational Assessment: Foot Patrol

• Location: Kaneohe Bay, HI, Aug 2012
• US Marine Corps infantry squad on

patrol in instrumented Military Operations in Urban Terrain (MOUT) facility

• Assessed asymmetric warfare in

crowded urban areas

• With NLW:
• Dramatically improved mission effectiveness, provided

Escalation of Force levels / capabilities

• Much less likely to cause CIVCAS deaths or injuries

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Case Studies

• Opposed Visit, Board, Search, Seizure (VBSS)
• Vehicle Traffic Control Point
• Establish and Secure a Perimeter
• Cordon and Search
• Crowd Control
• Entry Control Point (ECP)
• Convoy Security
• Urban Patrolling
• Clear Facilities
• Non-combatant Evacuation Operations (NEO)
• Hostage Rescue/ Tactical Recovery of Aircraft and Personnel (TRAP)
• Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief
• Securing Critical Infrastructure

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Summary of SAS-094 Activities

Major Activity Status Comment

Phase 1 Concept Analysis NLW Analysis Complete Future Security Environment Scenarios Tools and methods of analysis Lessons learned Case studies Phase 2 Support Concept Development Just started Selection of concept(s) and identification

• f most beneficial approach to test NLW

concepts, given likely constraints in time, tools, models and facilities Phase 3 Operational Experimentation Due to start Oct 13 – Oct 14 May be postponed to link with DAT 11 timeframes. Tabletop and decision support exercises, modelling & simulation, wargaming, experimentation and trials. Coordination Ongoing Close liaison with DAT 11 programme and events

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Inputs

• Presentation
• Syndicate discussion on 2 scenarios (CP & CM)

to provide operational context

• Discussion on issues relevant to NLW concept

development and experimentation

Inputs and Offers from ISMOR 29

Inputs and Offers from ISMOR 29

Offers

• Excellent dialogue
• Access to documents from The Technical Cooperation

Program (TTCP) were incorporated into SAS-094’s NLW Analysis WG

• A number of offers for models or model-generated results:

– PC-based model that could be useful for NLW concept experimentation – Close Combat Models

• Additional inputs – for ongoing Concept Development and

for the planned Concept Experimentation phase – would be most welcome

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