Support to the NATO NLW Concept Development and Experimentation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Support to the NATO NLW Concept Development and Experimentation Working Group (SAS-094) Alan Roland-Price SAS-094 arolandprice@scs-ltd.co.uk +44-118-909-0248

NATO Science & Technology Organisation STO S & T S & T CMRE CSO Board Committee 6 x Technical Panels (AVT, HFM, IST, SAS, SCI, SET) 1 x Specialist Group (NMSG) 2

Outline The rationale for Non-Lethal Weapons Update on SAS- 094’s progress supporting NLW Concept Development and Experimentation – Purpose, Participation and Programme – Activities • Concept Analysis • NLW Analysis • Support Concept Development • Assessment/Refinement Using Operational Experimentation • Co-ordination with other NLW activities Feedback from ISMOR 29 3

NLW NATO Definition : NLW are explicitly designed and developed to incapacitate or repel personnel, with a low probability of fatality or permanent injury, or to disable equipment, with minimal undesired damage or impact on the environment. 4

NLW NATO Definition : NLW are explicitly designed and developed to incapacitate or repel personnel, with a low probability of fatality or permanent injury, or to disable equipment, with minimal undesired damage or impact on the environment. ie. Acoustic systems (flash-bangs, loud speaker arrays) Chemical systems (tear gas, pepper sprays, irritants) Electromagnetic (laser dazzlers, tasers, RF systems) Mechanical/kinetic (blunt impact systems, nets) 5

Rationale for NLW “We must balance our pursuit of the enemy with our efforts to minimize loss of innocent civilian life, and with our obligation to protect our troops." General David H. Petraeus, US Army Commander, International Security Assistance Force and Commander, US Forces Afghanistan 2011 6

Isolate/Segregate “Every citizen of Afghanistan must know ISAF will continue to do all we can to reduce casualties that affect the Afghan civilian population." General John R. Allen, US Marine Corps Commander, International Security Assistance Force and Commander, US Forces Afghanistan 2012 7

Stopping Vehicles or Vessels Ability to seize the initiative Need for increased decision space/time  Act while determining intent  Deny an area to increase engagement range & standoff  Additional options for escalation/de-escalation  Delay approach and increase time to respond 8

SAS-094 Purpose and Participation Purpose: SAS-094 will provide analytical support for the development of NATO and national NLW Concepts of Operations/Employment and associated operational experimentation Participants: Belgium Germany United Kingdom Canada Netherlands United States Denmark Norway ACO, ACT, and CMRE France Sweden 9

Programme Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Through Mar 2013 Apr-Sep 2013 Oct 2013-Sep 2014 Oct-Dec 2014 Concept Analysis Support Assessment/Refinement Final Concept via Operational Deliverables Development Experimentation NLW Analysis Workshop Possible CD&E Event Coordination with Other NATO and National Efforts 10

Dimensions (1) Environment Demographics Natural Resources Energy Economics 11

Dimensions (2) Conflict and Security Culture and Society Science, Technology and Innovation State, Non-State Actors and Global Governance 12

Summary Trends and Regional Impacts Dimensions/ Africa Americas Antarctic Arctic Asia Europe Middle Oceania Challenges East P P P P P P P Environment Demographics P P P P P P P P P P Natural Resources Energy P P P P P P P P P Economics Conflict & Security P P P P Culture & Society P P P P P Science, Technology P P P P P P & Innovation States, Non-state P P P P P actors & global governance 13

Scenarios • Considered all dimensions across most regions (did not look at Antarctic) and looked at:  NATO references including the NATO Task List, Multiple Futures Project, and SAS-078 Scenario List  National sources including CAN Arctic options, USMC EoF Mission Tasks, US Joint Vision, UK FCOC and HLOC papers • Were developed directly from the challenges identified from the Futures work, resulting in a focus on:  Humanitarian assistance  Maintaining law & order  Protection of nationals and national interests including energy resources, rare minerals and fishing rights. 14

Scenarios 15

NLW Analysis Working Group Tasks – Analyze NLW Usage and Operational Experience – Military and law enforcement uses, NATO and national experience, lessons learned, and the role of NLW in delivering effects – Analyze current and potential NATO and national concepts to identify NLW implications, opportunities, and linkages – Assess Simulation and Analysis Tools: Identify appropriate measures, compare NLW models to address relevance for intended uses, identify caveats of use, assess the ability to support operational experimentation 16

Lessons from Ongoing Operations Challenges to Conventional War Paradigm – Adversaries avoid overmatch by complicating engagements (operating amid the populace) and using asymmetric means – Avoiding collateral damage (especially civilian casualties) is paramount Battle for the Narrative – Adversaries use of incidents (including false reports) – Ability to influence local and international perceptions and support Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS) – Shortage of non-lethal options cited. “Tools gap” between visual methods for assessing intent and lethal force – Recognized as a vulnerability that adversaries exploit – Most CIVCAS incidents lacked any kind of enhanced warning – Recommendation: Conduct a “deep dive” to identify non -lethal capabilities and options Sources: Draft report from Joint and Coalition Operational Analysis (JCOA) and Civilian Casualty Study Update for ISAF: Quick Impact Recommendations, 26 September 2011 17

Military Utility Operational Assessment: Vehicle Checkpoint  Location: Ft Benning, GA, March 2012  US Army infantry squad manned a Snap Vehicle Checkpoint  Assessments made with and without NLW  With NLW:  Soldiers had time and distance to safely assess threats, determine intent, and decide whether to employ lethal force  Much less likely to cause CIVCAS deaths or injuries (similar in magnitude to CIVCAS study results)  Increased mission effectiveness 18

Military Utility Operational Assessment: Foot Patrol  Location: Kaneohe Bay, HI, Aug 2012  US Marine Corps infantry squad on patrol in instrumented Military Operations in Urban Terrain (MOUT) facility  Assessed asymmetric warfare in crowded urban areas  With NLW:  Dramatically improved mission effectiveness, provided Escalation of Force levels / capabilities  Much less likely to cause CIVCAS deaths or injuries 19

Case Studies • Opposed Visit, Board, Search, Seizure (VBSS) • Vehicle Traffic Control Point • Establish and Secure a Perimeter • Cordon and Search • Crowd Control • Entry Control Point (ECP) • Convoy Security • Urban Patrolling • Clear Facilities • Non-combatant Evacuation Operations (NEO) • Hostage Rescue/ Tactical Recovery of Aircraft and Personnel (TRAP) • Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief • Securing Critical Infrastructure 20

Summary of SAS-094 Activities Major Activity Status Comment Future Security Environment Phase 1 Scenarios Concept Analysis Complete Tools and methods of analysis NLW Analysis Lessons learned Case studies Phase 2 Selection of concept(s) and identification Support Concept of most beneficial approach to test NLW Just started Development concepts, given likely constraints in time, tools, models and facilities May be postponed to link with DAT 11 timeframes. Phase 3 Tabletop and decision support exercises, Due to start Oct 13 – Oct 14 Operational modelling & simulation, wargaming, Experimentation experimentation and trials. Close liaison with DAT 11 programme and Coordination Ongoing events 21

Inputs and Offers from ISMOR 29 Inputs • Presentation • Syndicate discussion on 2 scenarios (CP & CM) to provide operational context • Discussion on issues relevant to NLW concept development and experimentation 22

Inputs and Offers from ISMOR 29 Offers • Excellent dialogue • Access to documents from The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) were incorporated into SAS- 094’s NLW Analysis WG • A number of offers for models or model-generated results: – PC-based model that could be useful for NLW concept experimentation – Close Combat Models • Additional inputs – for ongoing Concept Development and for the planned Concept Experimentation phase – would be most welcome 23