Study Purposes: demographic datasets Review enrollment/ Compile - - PDF document

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BAT

T L E G ROUND

PUBL

IC SCHOOL S:

E nrollme nt F

• re c a st

Ana lysis

Sc hool Boa rd Pre se nta tion F e brua ry 12, 2018

• E. D. Hovee & Company, LLC

E c o no mic and Develo pment Servic es

Ba c kg round

Study Purposes:

• Review enrollment/

demographic trends & forecasts

• Update student

generation rates

• Prepare 10‐year

baseline & alternative growth forecasts (by school & grade level)

‐ 2 ‐

Analysis Approach

 Obtain BGSD enrollment & demographic datasets  Compile regional demographics & forecast  Evaluate student generation  Prepare & calibrate enrollment forecast model  Refine based on BGSD input  Prepare forecast report documentation  Review with school board

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Popula tion T re nd

‐ 3 ‐

• Population

growth @ 3.1% per year 2000‐10

• Reduced rate of

1.7% 2010‐17

• BGSD population

@ 71,900 – 2017

• 15.3% of Clark
• Co. residents,

up from 13.6% in 2000

Q: When & how much is

growth likely to take off?

F

• re c a st De ve lopme nt & Popula tion

‐ 4 ‐

• Growth rate

extrapolation

• 3rd party

forecast (Environics)

• BG district

share of county‐ wide growth

• Housing unit

GIS projection

Q: With lots of room left,

how fast to build‐out?

Metric Housing DUs % Add Current DUs 28,266

• Pending

1,845 7% Available Capacity 16,851 60%

Forecast Option Forecast Options:

:

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Othe r De mog ra phic F a c tors

‐ 5 ‐

Birth Rates:

• Birth rates declined from 2000 thru recession
• Flat since (at 7% fewer than forecast by state)

Grade‐to‐Grade Enrollment Change:

• Some schools tend to gain students as the class

advances from year‐to‐year, others lose students

• Affected by starter & move‐up neighborhoods

Q: What will Millennials do & when?

Stude nt Ge ne ra tion

‐ 6 ‐

• Used to set

impact fees

• 0.380 rate

for new vs 0.423 for all BGSD housing

• 1/3 of MF

built in last 6 years

Q: Effect of more multi‐family units?

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Popula tion F

• re c a st

‐ 7 ‐

Baseline Forecast:

• Consistent with

adopted GMA

• Driven by planned

developments High Growth:

• Reflects 35,000

net add to County population ‐ 2027

• Increasing share
• f county growth

Q: Will new development

be even or bumpy?

K- 12 F

• re c a st Sc e na rios

‐ 8 ‐

Enrollment up by 1,535‐2,740 students (2017‐27)

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Prima ry E nrollme nt Sc e na rios

‐ 9 ‐ 5,852 4,736 5,409

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

K‐4 Total Headcount

Alternative Baseline

Enrollment up by 675‐1,115 students (2017‐27)

• K‐4 most

growth (#s)

• Glenwood

Heights most new students

• 0/‐ growth @

Yacolt, MG, Daybreak

Middle Sc hool Sc e na rios

‐ 10 ‐ 5,039 4,036 4,661

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

5‐8 Total Headcount

Alternative Baseline

Enrollment up by 625‐1,000+ students (2017‐27)

• Fastest growth

rate ‐ bumpy

• Most growth

@ Laurin, Chief Umtuch

• 0/‐ growth @

Amboy, MG, Daybreak

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Hig h Sc hool Sc e na rios

‐ 11 ‐ 4,961 4,343 4,580

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2025 2026

9‐12 Total Headcount

Alternative Baseline

Enrollment up by 240‐620 students (2017‐27)

• Slower growth

(in % & #s)

• Decline, then

turnaround

• Prairie grows,

BGHS stable to fewer students

Summa ry Note s

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Return to Enrollment Growth:

• Net increase of 1,535‐2,740 students in 10 years
• Growth likely faster in last half of forecast cycle

Trends to Watch:

• Planned development & single‐/multi‐family mix
• Pace of Clark County population/job growth
• Lifestyle preferences & choices of millennials

(household formation, move from cities, birth rates) Thank you