Study of Higgs→invisible using kinematic fit method applied jet energy resolution of ILD
Yu Kato The Univ. of Tokyo
Asian Physics and Software Meeting Jan. 19, 2018
Study of Higgsinvisible using kinematic fit method applied jet - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Study of Higgsinvisible using kinematic fit method applied jet energy resolution of ILD Yu Kato The Univ. of Tokyo Asian Physics and Software Meeting Jan. 19, 2018 Goal of this study 2018/1/19 Study of Higgsinvisible using kin-fit
Asian Physics and Software Meeting Jan. 19, 2018
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 2
method
Evaluate jet energy resolution
ILD model : ILD_l(s)5_v02 Ø jet energy & cosθ dependence evaluate jet angle resolution → apply to kinematic fit
kinematic fit
use MarlinKinfit - fitter engine : OPALFitter apply jet resolution Ø check effect & accuracy of fit
Improve analysis performance [BSM search using Higgs→invisible]
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 3
lILCSoft : v01-19-05 (gcc49) lILDConfig : v01-19-05-p01 lILD models : ILD_l5_o1_v02, ILD_s5_o1_v02 lsamples : Z→uds (/hsm/ilc/grid/storm/prod/ilc/mc-opt.dsk/ild/dst/calib/uds/*) l jet resolution definition
𝜏" 𝐹 = RMS90 𝐹
*
𝑛𝑓𝑏𝑜/0 𝐹
*
= 2
**
𝑛𝑓𝑏𝑜/0 𝐹
**
(J. S. Marshall and M. A. Thomson, ”Pandora Particle Flow Algorithm”, arXiv:1308.4537 [physics.ins-det])
𝜀𝜚 = RMS90(𝜚678 − 𝜚:8) 𝜀𝜄 = RMS90(𝜄678 − 𝜄:8)
2018/1/19
Study of Jet Resolution 4
√s [GeV]
30 40 60 91 120 160 200 240 300 350 400 500 l5 [events] 10k 10k 10k 10k 10k 10k 10k 10k 9k 10k 9k 10k s5 [events] 10k 10k 10k 10k 9k 10k 10k 9k 10k 10k 10k 10k
Update. use jet clustering: Durham
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 5
ILD_l5_v02 ILD_s5_v02
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 6
[GeV]
j
E
50 100 150 200 250
) [%]
j
(E
90
) / Mean
j
(E
90
RMS
3 4 5 6 7
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
/E = 3.5%
E
σ E /E = 30%/
E
σ Overall :
j
E
j
E 31.3/ | < 0.7 θ Barrel : |cos
j
E
j
E 28.9/ 0.7 ≥ | θ Endcap : |cos
j
E
j
E 33.6/
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 7
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
) [%]
j
(E
90
) / Mean
j
(E
90
RMS
5 10 15
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
apply this result to kinematic fit Evaluate JER
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 8
𝜀𝜚 ∗ 𝑡𝑗𝑜𝜄 = 𝑆𝑁𝑇/0{ 𝜚678 − 𝜚:8 𝑡𝑗𝑜𝜄} 𝜀𝜄 = 𝑆𝑁𝑇/0(𝜄678 − 𝜄:8)
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
θ *sin φ δ
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
MC
θ
θ = θ δ
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
Durham algorithm
For evaluation of angular resolution, use jet clustering.
apply this result to kinematic fit
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 9
seek minimum of under kinematic constraints method of Lagrange multipliers d.o.f.:
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 10 For iterative solution : Taylor-expansion of the constraints
Convergence condition ü 𝜀𝜓F < 0.01% ∩ 𝜀𝐺
N < 10OP
∩ 𝐺
N < 10OF Q 𝜓F
ü all 𝑔
S < 10OT ∩ 𝜀 𝜃, 𝜊, 𝜇 < 10OT
pZ mass constraint pjet mass constraint pImplement of jet resolution pdegrees of freedom
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 11
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
) [%]
j
(E
90
) / Mean
j
(E
90
RMS
5 10 15
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
MC
θ
θ = θ δ
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
MC
φ
φ = φ δ
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
q q X X
invisible !" H → XX ~???%
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 12
2
χ
500 1000 1500 2000
Events / 2.00
1 10
2
10
3
10
4
10
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
OPALFitter fit success : 99.85 % mean = 14.453 sigma = 46.970
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
fit probability
Fit Probability
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Events / 0.01
2
10
3
10
4
10
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
OPALFitter fit success : 99.85 % mean = 0.278 sigma = 0.313
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
←peak around0
fit with well-estimated errors →normal distributed between 0 and 1
a possibility of underestimating parameter error χ2 distribution
Mean:14.5 Ndof :1 Mean > Ndof
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 13 Recoil Mass [GeV]
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 0.50 GeV
200 400 600
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
OPALFitter success : 99.85 %
before fit: mean = 130.1 sigma = 12.076 after fit: mean = 129.0 sigma = 10.496 Recoil Mass [GeV]
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 0.50 GeV
1000 2000 3000 4000
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
MC: mode = 125.2 sigma = 6.379
OPALFitter success : 99.85 %
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
Recoil Mass Relative Error
1 − 0.5 − 0.5 1
Events / 0.01
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
OPALFitter success : 99.85 %
before fit: mean = 8.4e-03 sigma = 8.8e-02 after fit: mean = -3.3e-04 sigma = 6.9e-02
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
↓ISR effect
improve recoil mass resolution ~20%
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 14
[GeV]
Z
M
70 80 90 100 110 120
Events / 0.50 GeV
1 10
2
10
3
10
4
10
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
OPALFitter success : 99.85 %
MC: mean = 90.9 sigma = 5.338 before fit: mean = 90.7 sigma = 10.091 after fit: mean = 91.3 sigma = 1.271
Error???
lIn SM, Higgs decays invisibly through H → ZZ∗ → 4𝜉 (BR(H → 𝑗𝑜𝑤.)~0.1%) lIf BR(H → 𝑗𝑜𝑤.) exceeds SM prediction , it signifies new physics beyond SM (BSM) lWe estimate SM upper limit of BR(H → 𝑗𝑜𝑤.) lCompare between left & right polarization at the ILC
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs->invisible using kinematic fit 15
q q
BSM
X X
invisible
Dark Matter… SUSY…
visible 𝐶𝑆 H → XX ~? ? ? %
q q Z Z ν ν ν ν
𝐶𝑆 H → ZZ∗ → 4𝜉 ~0.1% invisible visible
Ø A. Ishikawa (Tohoku Univ.), ”Search for Invisible Higgs Decays at the ILC” LCWS2014@Belgrade
Previous study(A.Ishikawa) (95% CL, 250fb-1) left pol. : right pol. 0.95% : 0.69%
7e, 𝑄7f = −0.8, +0.3
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 16
w/o kinematic fit w/ kinematic fit
7e, 𝑄7f = +0.8, −0.3
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 17
w/o kinematic fit w/ kinematic fit
[GeV]
kf recoil
M
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 2.00 GeV
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
, Cut: No.1~No.9
dt = 250 fb L
∫
) = (-0.8,+0.3),
+,Pe
s
w/ kinematic fit inv. → H BR = 10% qqH,SM ZZ WW Z ν ν
[GeV]
kf recoil
M
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 2.00 GeV
200 400 600 800
, Cut: No.1~No.9
dt = 250 fb L
∫
) = (+0.8,-0.3),
+,Pe
s
w/ kinematic fit inv. → H BR = 10% qqH,SM ZZ WW Z ν ν
[GeV]
recoil
M
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 2.00 GeV
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
, Cut: No.1~No.9
dt = 250 fb L
∫
) = (-0.8,+0.3),
+,Pe
s
w/o kinematic fit inv. → H BR = 10% qqH,SM ZZ WW Z ν ν
[GeV]
recoil
M
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 2.00 GeV
200 400 600 800
, Cut: No.1~No.9
dt = 250 fb L
∫
) = (+0.8,-0.3),
+,Pe
s
w/o kinematic fit inv. → H BR = 10% qqH,SM ZZ WW Z ν ν
2018/1/19
18
Left polarization Right polarization
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD
significance=15.54 significance=20.81 significance=19.72 significance=16.26 w/o kinematic fit w/ kinematic fit
[GeV]
kf recoil
M
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 2.00 GeV
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
, Cut: No.1~No.9
dt = 250 fb L
∫
) = (-0.8,+0.3),
+,Pe
s
w/ kinematic fit inv. → H BR = 10% qqH,SM ZZ WW Z ν ν
[GeV]
kf recoil
M
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 2.00 GeV
200 400 600 800
, Cut: No.1~No.9
dt = 250 fb L
∫
) = (+0.8,-0.3),
+,Pe
s
w/ kinematic fit inv. → H BR = 10% qqH,SM ZZ WW Z ν ν
[GeV]
recoil
M
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 2.00 GeV
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
, Cut: No.1~No.9
dt = 250 fb L
∫
) = (-0.8,+0.3),
+,Pe
s
w/o kinematic fit inv. → H BR = 10% qqH,SM ZZ WW Z ν ν
[GeV]
recoil
M
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 2.00 GeV
200 400 600 800
, Cut: No.1~No.9
dt = 250 fb L
∫
) = (+0.8,-0.3),
+,Pe
s
w/o kinematic fit inv. → H BR = 10% qqH,SM ZZ WW Z ν ν
2018/1/19
19
Left polarization Right polarization
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD
UL=0.89±0.44% UL=0.59±0.29% UL=0.63±0.32% UL=0.84±0.42% w/o kinematic fit w/ kinematic fit
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 20
ジェットエネルギー分解能評価
kinematic fit
Higgs→invisible崩壊分岐比の上限推定
ex.) profile likelihood ratio
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 21
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 22
Recoil Mass [GeV]
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 0.50 GeV
200 400 600
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
OPALFitter success : 99.85 %
before fit: mean = 130.1 sigma = 12.076 after fit: mean = 129.0 sigma = 10.496
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
) [%]
j
(E
90
) / Mean
j
(E
90
RMS
5 10 15
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
ジェットエネルギー分解能評価
ILDモデルのシミュレーションを行い ジェットエネルギー分解能を評価した エネルギー&角度依存性の精査 角度分解能も同様に評価を行った
kinematic fit 構築
ジェット分解能を実装したkinematic fitを 構築した kinematic fitに必要なパラメータ誤差を ジェット分解能評価の結果↑から取得 Higgs→invisible過程の反跳質量分解能が ~20%改善した
実際の解析へ応用
Higgs→invisible崩壊分岐比の上限推定に 応用し、kinematic fitによる効果を確認
UL of BR [%] (95%CL) Left polarization Right polarization Previous study 0.95 0.69 w/o kinematic fit 0.89±0.44 0.63±0.32 w/ kinematic fit 0.84±0.42 0.59±0.29
l標準理論下でヒッグスは以下の反応でのみinvisible崩壊をする H → ZZ∗ → 4ν (BR(H → inv.)~0.1%) l崩壊分岐比 BR(Higgs→invisible) に有意な超過 →新物理が存在する確たる証拠 lBR(Higgs→invisible) の95% CL 上限を推定したい lILCにおける2種類のビーム偏極モード下での結果を比較
q q
新物理
X X
invisible崩壊
暗黒物質? 超対称性粒子?
再構成 𝐶𝑆 H → XX ~? ? ? %
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 23
q q Z Z ν ν ν ν
𝐶𝑆 H → ZZ∗ → 4𝜉 ~0.1% invisible崩壊 再構成
Ø A. Ishikawa (Tohoku Univ.), ”Search for Invisible Higgs Decays at the ILC” LCWS2014@Belgrade
先行研究の結果
(A.Ishikawa)
(95% CL, 250fb-1) left pol. : right pol. 0.95% : 0.69%
𝑁678
F
= 𝑡
⃗n F 𝜏qr = 𝑂
t
𝐶𝑆 Z → 𝑚v𝑚O εt𝑀 𝑂
t ∝ 𝜏qr・𝐶𝑆 H → 𝑗𝑜𝑤𝑗𝑡𝑗𝑐𝑚𝑓
反跳質量測定法
ü2ジェット & エネルギー欠損 ü𝑁{{ ≈ 𝑁n : 𝐶𝑆 Z → 𝑟𝑟 ~70% ü𝑁678•S€ ≈ 𝑁•S‚‚ƒ üsチャネル過程
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 24
q q X X
invisible 𝐶𝑆 H → XX ~? ? ? %
ZZ semi-leptonic WW semi-leptonic ννZ semi-leptonic
lシミュレーション条件
7e, 𝑄7f = −0.8, +0.3 , (+0.8, −0.3)
l解析の流れ
1. 粒子再構成 : “PandoraPFA”
2. ジェット クラスタリング : “Durham algorithm”
** = 𝑁n, 𝑁 *,ˆ7‰•67 = 𝑁 *,Љ‹76
4. 事象選別 (次ページに詳細)
5. 崩壊分岐比の上限推定
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 25
“Left” “Right”
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Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 26
Recoil Mass [GeV]
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Events / 0.50 GeV
200 400 600
sv01-19-05.mILD_o1_v05.eL.pR
OPALFitter success : 99.85 %
before fit: mean = 130.1 sigma = 12.076 after fit: mean = 129.0 sigma = 10.496
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
) [%]
j
(E
90
) / Mean
j
(E
90
RMS
5 10 15
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
Evaluation of JER kinematic fit
ジェット分解能を実装したkinematic fitを 構築した kinematic fitに必要なパラメータ誤差を ジェット分解能評価の結果↑から取得 Higgs→invisible過程の反跳質量分解能が ~20%改善した
Higgs→invisible
Estimate upper limit of BR(H→inv.) Check effect by kinematic fit
UL of BR [%] (95%CL) Left polarization Right polarization Previous study 0.95 0.69 w/o kinematic fit 0.89±0.44 0.63±0.32 w/ kinematic fit 0.84±0.42 0.59±0.29
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 27
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 28
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 29
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
) [%]
j
(E
90
) / Mean
j
(E
90
RMS
5 10 15
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
) [%]
j
(E
90
) / Mean
j
(E
90
RMS
5 10 15
sv01-19-05.mILD_s5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
[GeV]
j
E
50 100 150 200 250
) [%]
j
(E
90
) / Mean
j
(E
90
RMS
3 4 5 6 7
|<0.7 θ sv01-19-05 |cos
mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
j
E
j
E 28.9/ mILD_s5_o1_v02_nobg
j
E
j
E 27.6/ /E = 3.5%
E
σ
エネルギー分解能の定義 RMS90 ヒストグラム内の90%の事象が含まれる 最小の領域における標準偏差を用いる ILD_l5_v02 ILD_s5_v02
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
θ *sin φ δ
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
θ *sin φ δ
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
sv01-19-05.mILD_s5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 30
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
MC
θ
θ = θ δ
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
MC
θ
θ = θ δ
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
sv01-19-05.mILD_s5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
ILD_l5_v02 ILD_s5_v02 ILD_l5_v02 ILD_s5_v02
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 31
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
MC
θ
θ = θ δ
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
MC
θ
θ = θ δ
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
sv01-19-05.mILD_s5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
MC
φ
φ = φ δ
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
sv01-19-05.mILD_l5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
| θ |cos
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
MC
φ
φ = φ δ
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
sv01-19-05.mILD_s5_o1_v02_nobg
15GeV 20GeV 30GeV 45.5GeV 60GeV 80GeV 100GeV 120GeV 150GeV 175GeV 200GeV 250GeV
ILD_l5_v02 ILD_s5_v02 ILD_l5_v02 ILD_s5_v02
[transverse di-jet momentum, di-jet invariant mass, recoil
mass from di-jet]
method
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 32
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 33
2018/1/19
34
No. Cut No. Cut 1 Isolated lepton veto 5 80 < di-jet invariant mass < 100 2 Loose Cut (Ptz,Mz,Mrecoil) 6 | di-jet polar angle |< 0.9 3 #pfo >15 & #all_track > 6 & # track_in_one_jet > 1 7 100 < recoil mass < 160 4 20 GeV < di-jet Pt < 80 GeV 8 BDT cut
MVA input variables
di-jet inv. mass
polar angle
di-jet polar angle
another jet polar angle
TMVA v-4.2.0
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD
significance: 19.7 efficiency: 65.9%
signal bkg
significance: 15.5 efficiency: 63.5%
signal bkg
2018/1/19
Study of Higgs→invisible using kin-fit applied JER of ILD 35
NS+B NUL UL NUL
UL[%]
l テンプレート法
を取得 → 較正直線で崩壊分岐比 95% CL 上限に変換 手順6の実験結果に相当するものとして 標準理論想定、つまりシミュレーションで得た背景事象のみの分布を用いる