Strategy Update Travis Perkins 19 th May 2008 1 Reminder - who we - - PDF document
Strategy Update Travis Perkins 19 th May 2008 1 Reminder - who we - - PDF document
Strategy Update Travis Perkins 19 th May 2008 1 Reminder - who we are, what we do John Carter 2 Market Update Paul Hampden Smith 3 Strategy Update Geoff Cooper 4 Multi Channel Strategy John Carter 5 Toolstation - Mark
1 Reminder - who we are, what we do – John Carter 2 Market Update – Paul Hampden Smith 3 Strategy Update – Geoff Cooper 4 Multi Channel Strategy – John Carter 5 Toolstation - Mark Goddard-Watts
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Group structure
(Associate) 3
+140 years of combined experience in our sector … 4 members of the team were working at TP in the early 1990s recession
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Our Group mission…
Continue to deliver superior returns by...... putting in place and growing great businesses, with outstanding people and operations, providing comprehensive building material solutions, to everyone creating, maintaining, repairing or improving the built environment, ...... helping to build Britain.
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Our Group vision is…
To ensure that anyone in the UK who wants to access any kind of building materials through any form of supply channel will have a Travis Perkins group operation as their first or first alternative choice.
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Key company facts
Trade 71% Retail 29%
Turnover 2007 £3,187 m
Trade 81% Retail 19%
£320m operating profit 2007
Trade 70% Retail 30%
Over 15,000 colleagues 2007
Keyline 7% CCF 3% Benchmarx 2% Tile Giant 3% CPS 17% TP 52% Wickes 16%
7 brands on 1,125 sites 2007 - % split sites by brand
Other DIY 9% Joiners & kitchen fitters 1% Other trade 12% Landscape gardener 1% Serious DIY 9% Dry liners 4% Ground workers &civil engineering 8% P+H installers and contractors 7% Housebuilders 11% Maintenance contractors 3% Jobbing builders and contractors 35%
% split Group sales by customer type 2007
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We are expanding our channel and product/market presence
Core materials Civils P+H Drylining & Insulation Decorative Kitchens & joinery Tiles Retailing Wickes
- Wickes
Wickes Wickes Wickes Wickes General Merchanting TP TP TP TP TP TP TP Specialist
- Keyline
CPS CCF
- Benchmarx
Tile Giant Direct to site TP Keyline TP Keyline TP CPS TP CCF TP TP Benchmarx TP CPS Direct to consumer Wickes
- Wickes
Wickes Wickes Wickes Wickes
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TP operates within markets worth a total of approx. £33bn with a Group market share of 10%
TRADE Current TP core trade businesses
- Heavy + light BM
- Including Keyline,
CPS, CCF Specialist trade categories includes all supply channels
- Trade kitchens & joinery
- Insulation & drylining
- Ceiling & partitions &
fire proofing DIY
- “Retail”
formats
- Including some capture of smaller
tradesmen (white van man)
£16.5bn £14.1bn £3bn £1.4bn
Big 4 DIY ~£7bn
44% Specialist retail category includes all supply channels
- Tiles
£1bn - Consumers shopping at merchants £130m £580m £270m £170m
Source: Verdict 2008/Internal estimates/Consult GB
All these markets add up to £35bn.. however there is some overlap… We have to remove “double counting”
- f c. £2bn to reach our Group
addressable market size.
Travis Perkins Group addressable market
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1 Reminder - who we are, what we do – John Carter 2 Market Update – Paul Hampden Smith 3 Strategy Update – Geoff Cooper 4 Multi Channel Strategy – John Carter 5 Toolstation – Mark Goddard-Watts
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Economic variable
February
Market Comment
Outlook 2008
RMI output
Less sensitive to economic pressures
New housing output
Soft housing lead indicators
House price inflation ∆
House price growth falls to 0%
House transactions
Critically sensitive to confidence
Consumer spending ∆
Rate of growth declining
Consumer confidence
Bad news stories
Merchanting market Driven by inflation, volume down DIY market Lower inflation, volume down
Market outlook - our view in February 2008
=
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The downturn in Q3 2007 has spread to other sectors… =
INDICATOR YoY
MAY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 08 FEB MAR APR MAY
SITE VISITORS SITE RESERVATIONS MORTGAGE APPROVALS HOUSING TRANSACTIONS HOUSE PRICE GROWTH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BIG TICKET ITEMS HOUSING EQUITY WITHDRAWAL RETAIL SALES CONSTRUCTION FORECASTS NEW CONSTRUCTION ORDERS TRADE CUSTOMER CONFIDENCE BALANCE
= = = = =
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Mortgage approvals have decreased for home movers and first time buyers (FTB) … buy to let approvals (BTL) have been increasing since 2000
CML Mortgage approvals
- 200,000
400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year No of Approvals Total Home movers FTB BTL
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20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Bank of England
Mortgage approvals have dipped further in the last 3 months
Mar 2008 64,000 Nov 2005 77,000
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50 100 150 200 250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
SA Property transactions England & Wales
Housing transactions are at similar levels to 2004/5 and likely to fall further
Jan 2005 103,000
Feb 2008 116,000
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Whilst trade customer confidence has improved on the same period in 2006…
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 MONTH BALANCE OF WEIGHTED % TOTAL 48.0 47.0 44.3 41.7 43.4 34.7 19.3 31.8 53.8 55.0 53.2 51.3 52.5 45.8 43.5 47.1 43.6 35.7 25.1 28.6 46.8 54.3 51.8 49.7 51.0 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY CUSTOMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY - PURCHASES OF BUILDING MATERIALS FROM MERCHANTS OVER THE NEXT 2 MONTHS
2007 2008 2006
Source: TP trade customer confidence
Purchases of building materials from merchants over the next 2 months
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Customer confidence has fallen back on 2007
CUSTOMER SENTIMENT - PURCHASES OF BUILDING MATERIALS FROM MERCHANTS OVER THE NEXT 2 MONTHS - Year on Year Comparison
- 8.0
- 6.0
- 4.0
- 2.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Month Index Total 4.5
- 1.3
- 0.8
5.5 0.2 0.9 5.8
- 3.2
- 7.0
- 0.7
- 1.3
- 1.6
- 1.5
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Source: TP trade customer confidence 17
Comparison to early 1990s
% CHANGE 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Construction output 4.7 0.3 (7.3) (4.2) (1.9) New private housing (19.9) (25) (12.9) 0.4 9.3 RMI private housing 7.6 (3.7) (10.6) (9.1) (5.6) Company revenue (6) (4) (10) 1 12 Company volume (8) (6) (12) (1) 10 TP EBITA % of sales 7.8 5.2 2.9 3.2 5.7 2008-9 Scenario YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 Market volume ? ? ? ? ? Extra inflation
+ + + + +
TP outperformance Capacity reduction Trade LFL ? ? ? ? ?
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The 1990-94 construction recession was preceded by an extraordinary “spike” in housing transactions
% change in GDP & construction ouput, 1986-1996
- 10.0%
- 5.0%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 GDP Construction output
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Downturn in early 1990s was reversal of a much stronger growth period than currently happening
% change in total construction output less % change in GDP, 1986-2007
- 8.0%
- 4.0%
0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6
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Also true in sub sectors e.g. private housing RMI
% change in private housing R&M less % change in GDP, 1986-2007
- 12.0%
- 8.0%
- 4.0%
0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7
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- Demographic change
– Population growth – Household formation
- Consumer trends
– Do It For Me vs Do It Yourself
- UK housing requirements
– Higher numbers of housing completions required +250,000 p.a. – Housing completions mix
- Need for more sustainable materials
– Code for sustainable homes
- Large scale developments
– Thames Gateway, London 2012 and subsequent regeneration
Beyond 2009, longer term market trends remain positive
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- Trade trends 2008
– National operators are quieter – Some strong regional independents expanding – Early business failures of weak independents
- Retail trends 2008
– B&Q – still attempting to cover hard and soft ends of the market – Focus – will do better – Homebase – slowing down openings
Capacity growth – growing in merchanting flat in retail
2005 2006 2007 Merchanting
- Plumbing & heating
6.0% 2.6% 3.7%
- Other
3.0% 3.5% 3.3% Retail 4.0% 0.3% (0.2)%
Notes: Merchanting market is revenue capacity expansion. Retail market is space expansion. Source: Company estimates 23
1 Reminder - who we are, what we do – John Carter 2 Market Update – Paul Hampden Smith 3 Strategy Update – Geoff Cooper 4 Multi Channel Strategy – John Carter 5 Toolstation – Mark Goddard Watts
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1. Outperform market on a like-for-like basis 2. Expand branch network 3. Boost returns on capital 4. Move into adjacent markets 5. Achieve scale benefits 6. Strengthen the organisation
Our strategy since 2005 – what we said we’d do…
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Our pursuit of strategic priorities will reflect the tougher market outlook…
2005 Reposition trade business
- n price
Research customer drivers and segmentation Drive inflation into the retail market 2006-2007 Create new customer propositions (“Bullseyes”) Launch c.20 best practice programmes Make Wickes trade “harder”
Goal: continue to outperform on like-for-likes and protect gross margin
2008-2009 Trade pricing optimisation Best practice coalesced on to range, availability & service. Concentrate Wickes range development on core customers
#1 “outperform the market on a like-for-like basis”
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We have been outperforming the market since mid 2006
Travis Perkins Group performance against its markets
TRADE BMF VAR. RETAIL TRADE CPA VAR. 0%
GFK VAR.
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Bullseyes
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# 2 “Expand branch network”
2005 Branches added: 232 (inc Wickes 171) Concentrate on brownfields Goodwill prices too high Capacity overshoot Conserve cash 2006-2007 Branches added: 39 2006 & 103 2007 50% brownfields/50% acquisitions by value Goodwill prices moderating Capacity growth slows Push high return projects
Goals: Achieve strong incremental ROIC and maximise market penetration
2008-2009 Branches added 70 YTD 2008 & ? 2009 Depend on opportunities & value Actively drive goodwill prices down Further capacity contraction Raised return thresholds, new test criteria
Our pursuit of strategic priorities will reflect the tougher market outlook…
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Expansion
Group Branches By Brand
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Travis Perkins Keyline CPS (Inc TP P&H) CCF (Inc Atkins) Wickes Benchmarx Tile Giant Keyline acquired June 1999 CCF acquired 01 Oct 2002 CPS acquired 01 July 2002 Wickes acquired 11 Feb 2005 Benchmarx commenced trading 10 July 2006 Tile Giant acquired 15 November 2007 30
Potential Expansion
CPS
191 180
Benchmarx
148 27
Wickes
139 193
Keyline
81 59
Current branches 1,195 Potential branches 970
NB: does not include Toolstation (in which the Group holds a 30% investment).
Travis Perkins
601 196
CCF
34 16
Tile Giant
68 232
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# 3 Boost returns on capital
2006-2007 2006 Property profits: £11.6m
- No. of projects delivered: 43 (35
= SPV) Property cash released: £31.5m 2007 Property profits: £6.4m No of projects delivered: 3 Property cash released: £0.8m Invest in working capital to support the proposition 2005 Re-structured property function Drive working capital for cash
Goals: Exploit fresh property opportunities to maintain a reliable annual contribution from property
Our pursuit of strategic priorities will reflect the tougher market outlook…
2008-2009 Target profits of c. £10m p.a. and cash
- f c. £20m p.a.
Further exploit development potential Use new supply chain capabilities to boost returns by reducing working capital
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2005 2006 2007 Net debt £m 982.4 804.4 941.0 Working capital : sales 3.23% 2.35% 3.88% Property NBV £m 200.1 191.4 241.9
The Group’s ability to generate cash in response to challenging markets is strong…
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# 4 “Move into adjacent markets” Goals: Unlikely to move any further until market outlook improves
Our pursuit of strategic priorities will reflect the tougher market outlook…
2005 2006-7 2008-2009
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# 5 “Achieve scale benefits”
2005 TP/Wickes synergy programme Sales per employee up: Trade +2.0% Retail n/a 2006-2007 TP/Wickes synergy programme New “horizontal” business units – boost gross margin Sales per employee up: Trade +5.1% (‘06) +5.8% (‘07) Retail +7.2% (‘06) +3.3% (‘07)
Goals: Lower input costs to partially compensate for market price pressure
2008-2009 Product input costs re-check Expanded global sourcing Headcount taken out of branches and HO without significant restructuring cost Discretionary expenditure cut “War-readiness”
Our pursuit of strategic priorities will reflect the tougher market outlook…
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# 6 “Strengthen the organisation”
2005 Property Marketing Customer insight TP/Wickes rationalisation Overhead : sales 25.6% 2006-2007 Supply chain HR IT upgrade Health & Safety Overhead : sales 26% (06) 25.7% (07)
Goals: Tighten central cost base and headcount
2008-2009 Continue to invest in:
- IT
- Management
development
Our pursuit of strategic priorities will reflect the tougher market outlook…
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- Maintain outperformance and manage margin…
…demonstrate resilience
- Take advantage of challenging conditions…
…walking away from deals
- Further develop channel strategy…
…done
- Learn Spanish…
…doing
Strategic priorities 2008
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Further develop channel strategy
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Coffee break
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1 Reminder - who we are, what we do – John Carter 2 Market Update – Paul Hampden Smith 3 Strategy Update – Geoff Cooper 4 Multi Channel Strategy – John Carter 5 Toolstation – Mark Goddard-Watts
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The strategy of moving into new channels of distribution is in line with our Group vision…
…to ensure that anyone in the UK who wants to access any kind
- f building materials through any form of supply channel will have
a Travis Perkins group operation as their first or first alternative choice… …because customers are increasingly using diverse channels to
- rder and receive building materials
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Our businesses are already present across many channels and will develop further
Channel Access by Brand
Branch Local Telephone Service Local E-mail Service Central Telephone Service Transactional Website Information Website On-Line Account Management Transactional Catalogue TP Wickes City Plumbing CCF Keyline Tile Giant Toolstation Tools in the Post (CCF) Proposed 2008/2009 Current
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Online market opportunity
On-line Retail Market of £46BN On-Line Product Market of £14BN On-Line DIY Market of £624M Services £32BN Other Products £13.4BN Other DIY £496M Products £14BN DIY £624M Screwfix £120m Wickes £8M
Figures using Verdict UK E-Retail 2007 Report and Cap Gemini e-retail Sales Index 2007 year end report
Online competitors include: Screwfix e-Bay Amazon Tesco Independents B&Q Homebase
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Competitors matrix – who is doing what & how
* Homebase's transactional site is an Argos site skinned green and
- nly sells Argos products
** B&Q’s web site only sells direct from supplier products
Wickes B&Q Homebase Screwfix Selco Toolbox
Core DIY Range Offer ‘Heavyside Product Offer Centralised Core Delivery Heavyside Delivery Showroom Products Showroom Delivery Direct Infrastructure ‘For the Trade’ Branded Products n/a Loyalty Personalised Relationship Systems n/a Trade Account n/a Catalogue Transactional Website ** *
Proposed Current
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- Upgrade technology
- Develop sharper commercial propositions
- Leverage shared infrastructure skills across the Group
- Utilise Toolstation expertise
To execute our strategy we need to;
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- Low risk, high potential e.g. Wickes website
- Big halo effect
– Reinforces overall customer relationship with businesses
Scale of investment
Set up costs (£460k) Revenue (£200k) Capital (£260k) 2006 Profit (£124k) 2007 Profit £85k 2008 Projected profit £1,000k Pay back late 2008
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- Move into net priced online offer
- Branded and own brand product
- More value orientated product
The value of Toolstation
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- The Group is fully committed to leveraging new channels
– Wickes site in profit in short space of time – CPS site will increase market share – Toolstation – Experimenting with new services
- The strategy is flexible
– Short term – Long term
- The infrastructure is adaptable
– Integrate new technology – Add new brands and acquisitions
- The aim is to drive sales and profit across the Group
– Truly multi-channel customer experience – Continue to find new partnerships, acquisitions & new niche and online brands
Summary
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1 Reminder - who we are, what we do – John Carter 2 Market Update – Paul Hampden Smith 3 Strategy Update – Geoff Cooper 4 Multi Channel Strategy – John Carter 5 Toolstation – Mark Goddard Watts
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Mark Goddard-Watts Background
1980 £64k 1987 1988 1989 £100k 1992 1993 1994 £1m 1995 8 staff 1996 1997 1998 1999 £50m 800 Staff 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Computer 1990 1991 Screwfix Direct
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Multi Channel Retail
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Adam Keates
Retail Operations
Neil Carroll
Marketing/Buying
Jonathan Burke
IT
Lucy Lynch
Finance
Mark Goddard-Watts
Toolstation Team
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Internet Contact Centre Counter Delivered Collect
- One Catalogue
- One Price
- 100% Stock
- Mix and Match
- Simple Logistics
- Purpose Built
Integrated IT System
Multi Channel Retail
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Internet
IT System
- Development In House
- Open Source Technology
- Reliable and Expandable
Internet Based
Distribution Contact Centre Head Office Servers Counters Suppliers Franchise Management Customers
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IT System
Core Functions
Operations
Stock Distribution Warehouse Management Stock Replenishment Product Management Courier Management Catalogue Generation Online Marketing Personnel Management
Head Office
Real Time Reporting Competitor Monitoring
Ongoing Development Customer
Sales Order Processing Website Customer Management Shop Management Payment Handling
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Overview
- 8,000 sqm
- £2m Stock
- Daily Shop Replenishment
- 1,500 Customer Parcels / Day
- 108 Staff
Bridgwater, Somerset
- IT
- Buying
- Marketing
- Finance & Administration
- 27 Staff
Distribution Centre Head Office
- Order Processing
- Payment Processing
- Customer Services
- 24 Staff
Contact Centre
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Overview Sales Counters
Bridgwater Bristol Manchester Exeter Fareham Yeovil Leeds Tipton 2008 Poole Glasgow Ruislip Brentford
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Sales Counters
Site
- Industrial Building
- 700 sqm
- Easy Access
- Good Parking
Operation
- 7 days per week
- 100% Catalogue Stocked
- Fast Track Collections
- 7 Staff
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Overview
- Price Promise
– One best price for all
- No discounts, negotiation or one off deals
– Price Match Guarantee
- you won’t find it cheaper
- Service Promise
– We aim to be 100% in stock
- Quality Promise
– Good, Better and Best
- Satisfaction Promise
– 30 days no reason, return – 12 month if faulty
Best Service – Best Price – Best Value
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Overview
- 10,000 Products
– Tools, Fixings and Hardware
- 600,000 Customers
– Trade and DIY
- Multiple Channels
– Internet – Catalogue – 12 Toolstation Branches
- 1 Best Price for All
– No Discounts – Everyone Welcome
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Direct Counter
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
£1m £6m £12m £18m £21m
2008
Growth
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The Netherlands
- Warehouse + Head Office
– Leiderdorp
- 4 Sales Counters
– Leiderdorp – Heerhugowaard – Rotterdam – Nieuwegein
- Trading
– Launched August 2006 – 5,800 Lines – Catalogue – Website – 4 Sales Counters
- Franchise
– Direct Sourcing – Turnover Based Fee – IT System provided by UK
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