Our Philosophy Where will we end up , rather than where should we start: 2050 Analysis The future will require radical technological change : EnergyPLAN All sectors of the energy system will Consequences for a need to ne connected: EnergyPLAN Variety of Alternatives Account for the intermittency of renewables such as wind: Hourly Analysis Free from existing market regulations : Socio-Economic Analysis 37
Existing EnergyPLAN Models Existing Models www.EnergyPLAN.eu/models • Croatia • China • Czech Republic • Denmark • Hungary • Ireland • Italy • Latvia • Macedonia • Mexico • New Zealand • Norway • Romania • Sweden • United Kingdom 38
Modelling Steps Results Forecast for Energy Starting Point (Energy, the Future Efficiency (2010) Environment, (BAU 2050) Alternatives Economy) • Extra Heat Savings • Extra District Heating • Different Individual Heating Options 39
Modelling Steps for Each Country in STRATEGO (i.e. Alternatives in STRATEGO) Step Technologies 0a. 2010 2010 historical model (Calibration) 2050 business-as-usual scenario based on the latest 0b. BAU 2050 European Commission forecasts 1: Heat savings ADD: Heat savings COMPARE: Gas and water (i.e. district heating) 2: Heat networks networks COMPARE: Oil boilers, Biomass boilers, heat pumps, 3: Individual heating electric heating ADD: Geothermal, waste incineration, excess industrial 4: Renewable Heat heat, large-scale solar thermal 5: Renewable Electricity ADD: Large heat pumps, electric boilers 6. Heat Roadmap OPTIMISE: Synergies in the new efficient heat sector COMPARE: Individual and District Cooling for the 7. Cooling services sector in urban areas 40
What Should We Measure? • Energy (Primary Energy Supply) • Environment (Carbon Emissions) • Economy (Total Annual Energy System Costs) 41
RESULTS 42
Final Levels of Each Energy Efficiency Measure in the Low-Carbon Heating and Cooling Strategies District Heat Supply Individual Heating Heat Roadmaps Heat Savings District Heating from Renewable Technology Heat & Excess Heat* Reduction as a % of Total Heat % of District Heat Percentage of the BAU Demand after Heat Primary Technology Production 2050 Heat Demand Savings (vs. % today) Heat pumps are Czech Republic 40% 40% (25%) 65% recommended as the primary Croatia 40% 40% (15%) 45% technology with small shares for Italy 30% 60% (<5%) 40% biomass boilers, and solar thermal. The Romania 50% 40% (20%) 50% exact mix of each technology is not United Kingdom 40% 70% (<5%) 45% optimised. 43 *Doesn’t include excess heat from thermal power plants or thermal boilers.
Change in HR Scenarios Heat Roadmap Scenario in 2050 Compared to a Business-As-Usual Energy System for the Year 2050 Czech Republic Croatia Italy Romania United Kingdom 0% Change for the Heating, Cooling, and Electricity Sectors -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% Primary Energy Supply Carbon Dioxide Emissions Total Annual Costs 44
Changes for Heating, Cooling, and Electricity Heating, Cooling and Electricity Energy Environment Economy Sectors Only Change in Energy Heat Roadmap vs. Change in Primary Change in Carbon System Costs BAU 2050 Energy Supply Dioxide (excludes vehicle costs) Billion Unit TWh/year % Mt/year % % € /year Czech Republic -109 -30% -35 -73% -3 -14% Croatia -18 -32% -5 -47% -1 -12% Italy -380 -32% -101 -46% -13 -13% Romania -118 -38% -36 -75% -3 -14% United Kingdom -444 -35% -109 -49% -15 -14% All Five Countries -1069 -34% -286 -52% -35 -14% 45
Contextualising the Changes In total, the energy demand is reduced by ~1000 TWh/year if the Heat Roadmap scenarios are implemented in all five STRATEGO countries, which is the same as all of the energy required today in the Czech Republic, Croatia, and Romania combined. Similarly, the combined reductions in carbon dioxide emissions of almost 300 Mt/year is more than all of the carbon dioxide emissions emitted from the Czech Republic, Croatia, and Romania today (which is ~225 Mt/year). 46
Main Results for WP2 All Five Annual Change for Energy Efficiency Heating, Cooling, & Investments STRATEGO Electricity Sectors Countries Heat Savings Energy ~ € 600 Billion -30% Total Additional Energy Efficiency District Carbon Investments Heating Dioxide Between 2010 & ~ € 275 Billion -50% 2050 ~ € 1.1 Trillion Individual Costs Heat Pumps -15% ~ € 225 Billion 47
Change in Total Investments in the Heat Roamdap Scenarios Compared to Today (Billion € ) -300 -200 -100 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 Heat savings Individual Heat Pumps DH - Combined Heat & Power Status of Some Key Technologies in the Heat Roadmap Compared to the Ref 2010 Scenario Solar PV, CSP, and Tidal DH - Heat Pumps All Five STRATEGO Countries Combined District Heating Substations Total Investments vs. Today New & Growing Investments DH - Fuel & Electric Boilers Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Hydro District Heating Pipes Individual Solar Thermal DH - Solar Thermal DH - Geothermal DH - Industrial Excess DH - Thermal Storage Declining Investments Individual Biomass Boilers Individual Coal and Oil Boilers Individual Gas Boilers 48 Condensing Power Plants
Key Messages: Heating Heat savings should begin today and be strongly supported to the point where their total heat demand is reduced to 60-90 kWh/m2 In existing buildings while they are undergoing other refurbishments and in new buildings, Share of district heating can be expanded significantly in all countries Urban Areas Electric heat pumps are the most sustainable option for individual heating Rural Areas In all the countries there are large amounts of renewable and excess heat available, but there is a limited supply of renewable electricity, while there is likely to be a shortfall of biomass if the aim is to decarbonise the entire energy system. The results are extremely sensitive to cost assumptions, but the conclusions are very robust 49
Key Recommendations for the Heat Sector Urban Everywhere Rural Areas Areas District Heating Primarily Electric Heat Savings Networks Heat Pumps Smaller Shares of Balance Savings vs. High Heat Density Solar Thermal & Supply Areas Biomass Boilers Remaining 30-60% 30-50% Total Supply 40-70% of of the Heat Reduction the Heat Demand Demand 50
DETAILED DISCUSSION ABOUT THE KEY DECISIONS FOR HEATING 51
3 options for the Heat Sector 52
3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings Reduce our demand for heat: Space heating Hot water 53
How much Heat should we Save? We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings Cost of Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 54
How much Heat should we Save? We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings Cost of Cost of Heat Supplying Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 55
How much Heat should we Save? We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings 30-50% Cost of Cost of Heat Supplying Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 56
Same Recommendation, but Different Numbers Reported Eurima Deep Renovation says: Eurima and Heat Roadmap Europe says “Final Energy ~75%” “Heat Demand Reduction up 50%” _ • Heat Coming Out of the • Energy Going into the Heating Unit Heating Unit Hypothetical 10 Units 9 Units Boiler with an of Fuel of Heat Efficiency of 90% 57
3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings 2. Urban Areas 3. Rural Areas Reduce our Share a heating Use a heating demand for heat: network: unit in each building: Space heating Gas Grid Oil Hot water Water (i.e. Biomass district heating) Heat Pumps Electric Heating 30-50% Marginal 58
3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings 2. Urban Areas 3. Rural Areas Reduce our Share a heating Use a heating demand for heat: network: unit in each building: Space heating Gas Grid Oil Hot water Water (i.e. Biomass district heating) Heat Pumps Electric Heating 30-50% Gas or Marginal District Heating? 59
60
1. Northern Europe needs heating and southern Europe needs cooling 2. District Heating is a Local Solution for a Local Problem 3. District Heating is Expensive 4. Heat savings will remove the need for heat supply 61
1. Northern Europe needs heating and southern Europe needs cooling
European Heating Index (Source: ecoheatcool) +/- 20% 63
European Heating Index (Source: ecoheatcool) +/- 20% 64
EU Heat Atlas 30-50% of Heat Currently Feasible for DH 65
HRE Heat Atlas at a Local Level 66
HRE Mapping: Best Places to Start District Heating in the EU 67
Surplus Heat in Different MS 68
GIS Mapping: Heating and Cooling Demands Many Heat Sources Power and Heat Generation Waste Incineration Industrial waste heat potential Geothermal heat Solar Thermal Bioenergy Potential 69
Interactive Online Maps 70
2. District Heating is a Local Solution for a Local Problem
Today’s Heat Sector Demand Resources Conversion Exchange and Storage Engines Mobility Power Exchange Electricity Fuels Power Plants Cooling Heat-Only Heating Boilers 72
The New Heat Sector Resources Conversion Exchange and Demand Storage Engines & Motors Fuel Storage Mobility Fluctuating (Vehicles) Wind etc. Synthetic Fuel Power Electricity Exchange Flexible Electricity Electricity Storage CHP Fuels Heat Pump Cooling (or Quad) Thermal Storage Heating Fluctuating Solar etc. Heat 73
Integrating 40% Wind Power with District Heating Resources Conversion Exchange and Demand Relocation Storage Engines & Motors Fuel Storage Mobility Fluctuating (Vehicles) Wind etc. Synthetic Fuel Power Electricity Exchange Flexible Electricity Electricity Storage CHP Fuels Heat Pump Cooling (or Quad) Thermal Storage Heating Fluctuating Solar etc. Heat 74
Denmark 50% Wind for December 2013 75
Sustainable: Flexible, so more Solar (Marstal: >50% solar in heat supply) 76
Storage Costs Electricity = € 170/kWh Thermal = € 0.5-3/kWh 77
EnergyPLAN: Version 12 www.EnergyPLAN.eu _ Hourly Modelling of Electricity, Heating, Cooling, Industry, and Transport • Over 1000 Registered Users across more than 100 countries • Lots of free training provided: – Exercises with solutions – FAQs – Forum – Quarterly online workshops – User Manual • Can be used to model any national energy system • Freeware software 78
3. District Heating is Expensive
3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings 2. Urban Areas 3. Rural Areas Reduce our Share a heating Use a heating demand for heat: network: unit in each building: Space heating Gas Grid Oil Hot water Water (i.e. Biomass district heating) Heat Pumps Electric Heating 30-50% Gas or Marginal District Heating? 80
Gas Grid High quality energy for a low quality demand Natural Gas Gas Syngas Biogas Grid Gasified Biomass 81
District Heating Low quality energy for a low quality demand Power Plants Electric Industry Boilers Waste Heat Incin- Pumps District eration Heating Geo- Biofuel thermal Plants Solar Hydroge Thermal n Plants 82
The Current Situation 80 Energy Balance for the EU27 in 2010 (EJ) 70 60 Non-specified 50 Non-energy use 40 Transport Electricity 30 Heat for Industry 20 Heat for Buildings 10 0 Primary Energy Final Consumption End Use Supply 83
District Heating Analysis Energy System Modelling GIS Mapping (EnergyPLAN) (could be another technology, resource, etc) BAU (References) District Heating Demands District Heating Alternatives District Heating Resources Results (PES, CO2, Costs) 84
HRE2: Key Conclusion A combination of: 50% District Heating ( Cities ) 50% Heat Pumps ( Rural Areas ) 35% Energy Savings ( Everywhere ) Can enable the EU to reach its CO2 target in 2050 for € 100 billion/year less than energy savings on their own. 85
4. Heat savings will remove the need for heat supply 23 June 2015
How much Heat should we Save? We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings Cost of Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 23 June 2015 Danfoss, Nordborg 87
How much Heat should we Save? We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings Cost of Cost of Heat Supplying Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 23 June 2015 Danfoss, Nordborg 88
How much Heat should we Save? We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings 30-50% Cost of Cost of Heat Supplying Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 23 June 2015 Danfoss, Nordborg 89
1. District Heating is not only for Cold Parts of Europe 2. District Heating is a Local Solution for an EU Problem 3. District Heating can reduce the cost of energy in the EU 4. Heat savings will not remove the need for heat supply 90
3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings 2. Urban Areas 3. Rural Areas Reduce our Share a heating Use a heating demand for heat: network: unit in each building: Space heating Gas Grid Oil Hot water Water (i.e. Biomass district heating) Heat Pumps Electric Heating 30-50% ~50% Which Marginal District Heating one? 91
3. Individual Heating Options Sustainable Heating Unit Efficient Cost Cost Sensitivity Resources Electric Heating Heat Pumps Oil Boilers Biomass Boilers 92
3. Individual Heating Options Sustainable Heating Unit Efficient Cost Cost Sensitivity Resources Electric Heating Heat Pumps Oil Boilers Biomass Boilers 93
3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings 2. Urban Areas 3. Rural Areas Reduce our Share a heating Use a heating demand for heat: network: unit in each building: Space heating Gas Grid Oil Hot water Water (i.e. Biomass district heating) Heat Pumps Electric Heating 30-50% ~50% ~50% Marginal District Heating Heat Pumps 94
Conclusions: Heat Sector Savings: There is an economic balance between reducing heat and supplying heat 30-50% heat savings is a good proxy for the economic limit of heat savings Individual: Heat pumps are the most suitable individual heating solution in a 100% renewable context Networks/Urban: District heating is the most suitable urban heating in a 100% renewable energy context 95
COOLING 96
EU Cooling Demand 97
www.heatroadmap.eu Sample Cooling Atlas from STRATEGO: London 98
District Cooling in Europe 99
Key Finding for the Cooling Sector Today’s Future Demand Demand Very Small Could Grow a Lot (Up to ~40% of heat (~10% of heat demand with max demand with only of 140%) CY, MA, & GR >30%) So, Currently a Local So, Potential Issue National/EU Issue 23 June 2015 Danfoss, Nordborg 100
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