Statistical Downscaling of the CMIP5 Archive for Impacts Research - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Statistical Downscaling of the CMIP5 Archive for Impacts Research - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Statistical Downscaling of the CMIP5 Archive for Impacts Research Bridget Thrasher, PhD Climate Analytics Group 6 th Biennial Lake Tahoe Basin Science Conference May 23, 2012 CMIP5 C oupled M odel I ntercomparison P roject Phase 5 Basis

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SLIDE 1

Statistical Downscaling of the CMIP5 Archive for Impacts Research

Bridget Thrasher, PhD Climate Analytics Group 6th Biennial Lake Tahoe Basin Science Conference May 23, 2012

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CMIP5

  • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

Phase 5

  • Basis of IPCC AR5
  • Standard set of simulations
  • Available through Earth System Grid

– pcmdi3.llnl.gov/esgcet

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CMIP5 Archive

Model Names ACCESS1-0 HadGEM2-ES CanESM2 INMCM4 CCSM4 IPSL-CM5A-LR CNRM-CM5 IPSL-CM5A-MR CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 MIROC-ESM FGOALS-g2 MIROC-ESM-CHEM GFDL-CM3 MIROC5 GFDL-ESM2G MPI-ESM-LR GFDL-ESM2M MRI-CGCM3 GISS-E2-R NorESM1-M

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CMIP5 GHG Forcings

Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011

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SLIDE 5

Method: BCSD

  • Bias Correction/Spatial Downscaling

– Described in Wood et al, 2002, and Wood et al, 2004

  • Applied to monthly averages
  • 800m PRISM used for gridded observations

– www.prism.oregonstate.edu

  • Reference period 1950-2005
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SLIDE 6

Ensemble Statistics

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SLIDE 7

Average Annual Precipitation

2020s 2050s 2080s

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SLIDE 8

Annual Total Precipitation RCP4.5

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 mm/yr p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg

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SLIDE 9

Annual Total Precipitation RCP8.5

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 mm/yr p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg

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Precipitation Extremes RCP4.5

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 mm/d p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg

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Precipitation Extremes RCP8.5

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 mm/d p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg

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SLIDE 12

Average Annual Tmax

2020s 2050s 2080s

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SLIDE 13

Tmax Extremes RCP4.5

22 24 26 28 30 32 34 deg C p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg

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SLIDE 14

Tmax Extremes RCP8.5

22 24 26 28 30 32 34 deg C p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg

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SLIDE 15

Average Annual Tmin

2020s 2050s 2080s

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SLIDE 16

Tmin Extremes RCP4.5

  • 10
  • 9
  • 8
  • 7
  • 6
  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 deg C p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg

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SLIDE 17

Tmin Extremes RCP8.5

  • 10
  • 9
  • 8
  • 7
  • 6
  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 deg C p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg

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Conclusions

  • No consensus on precipitation

– Ensemble average shows no change – Ensemble extremes wet and dry

  • Maximum temperature increasing

– Range over 21C ~2-8 degrees

  • Minimum temperature increasing

– Range over 21C ~2-5 degrees – Worst case area above freezing year-round by EOC

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Thank You

bridget@climateanalyticsgroup.org