Statistical Downscaling of the CMIP5 Archive for Impacts Research - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Statistical Downscaling of the CMIP5 Archive for Impacts Research Bridget Thrasher, PhD Climate Analytics Group 6 th Biennial Lake Tahoe Basin Science Conference May 23, 2012

CMIP5 • C oupled M odel I ntercomparison P roject Phase 5 • Basis of IPCC AR5 • Standard set of simulations • Available through Earth System Grid – pcmdi3.llnl.gov/esgcet

CMIP5 Archive Model Names ACCESS1-0 HadGEM2-ES CanESM2 INMCM4 CCSM4 IPSL-CM5A-LR CNRM-CM5 IPSL-CM5A-MR CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 MIROC-ESM FGOALS-g2 MIROC-ESM-CHEM GFDL-CM3 MIROC5 GFDL-ESM2G MPI-ESM-LR GFDL-ESM2M MRI-CGCM3 GISS-E2-R NorESM1-M

CMIP5 GHG Forcings Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011

Method: BCSD • B ias C orrection/ S patial D ownscaling – Described in Wood et al, 2002, and Wood et al, 2004 • Applied to monthly averages • 800m PRISM used for gridded observations – www.prism.oregonstate.edu • Reference period 1950-2005

Ensemble Statistics

Average Annual Precipitation 2020s 2050s 2080s

Annual Total Precipitation RCP4.5 p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 mm/yr 1200 1000 800 600 400 200

Annual Total Precipitation RCP8.5 p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 mm/yr 1200 1000 800 600 400 200

Precipitation Extremes RCP4.5 p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg 22 20 18 16 14 12 mm/d 10 8 6 4 2 0

Precipitation Extremes RCP8.5 p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg 22 20 18 16 14 12 mm/d 10 8 6 4 2 0

Average Annual Tmax 2020s 2050s 2080s

Tmax Extremes RCP4.5 p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg 34 32 30 deg C 28 26 24 22

Tmax Extremes RCP8.5 p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg 34 32 30 deg C 28 26 24 22

Average Annual Tmin 2020s 2050s 2080s

Tmin Extremes RCP4.5 p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 deg C -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10

Tmin Extremes RCP8.5 p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 deg C -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10

Conclusions • No consensus on precipitation – Ensemble average shows no change – Ensemble extremes wet and dry • Maximum temperature increasing – Range over 21C ~2-8 degrees • Minimum temperature increasing – Range over 21C ~2-5 degrees – Worst case area above freezing year-round by EOC

Thank You bridget@climateanalyticsgroup.org