STAKEHOLDERS STUDY ON THE TOURISM CARRYING CAPACITY FOR THE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

STUDY ON THE TOURISM CARRYING CAPACITY FOR THE ISLAND OF MAHE

STAKEHOLDERS’ WORKSHOP

BONZOUR!

Understanding

• f Key Issues

and Impacts Snapshot of Current Conditions

WHAT WE’LL ACCOMPLISH

Purpose of Carrying Capacity Study Defining a Path Forward

AGENDA – FEB 11, MAHE

Welcome participants

9:00-9:15pm

Introduction and Visitor site exercise

9:15-9:30pm

Present snapshot of conditions

9:30-10:00pm

Coffee break

10:15- 10:30pm

Q&A and Individual Activity

10:00- 10:15pm 10:30- 11:30pm 11:30- 12:00pm

Group Activity Group Presentations and closing remarks

PROJECT TEAM

Paloma Zapata Project Lead

Robert Chappell Technical Advisor Daniella Larue

Project Manager

Diana Körner Consultant Ryan Sharp, PhD Social Scientist

WHO WE ARE

A MISSION-DRIVEN ORGANIZATION

Protect and conserve our planet’s most vulnerable destinations by transforming tourism’s impact on nature and people

WHY TOURISM?

Travel and tourism has the power to change a place and the lives of the people who live there - for better or worse.

TOURISM CAN CONTRIBUTE TO ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

Degradation of land and marine ecosystems Overconsumptio n of natural resources Excess waste and pollution Harm to wildlife and loss of biodiversity

… AND HARM HOST COMMUNITIES

Diminished quality of life for local people Displacement of local communities Loss of cultural traditions, values, and heritage Economic leakage

IT CAN ALSO BE A POWERFUL TOOL TO COMBAT THESE SAME ISSUES

Supporting environmenta l conservation efforts and protection of sensitive ecosystems Providing more inclusive and greater income- generating

• pportunities

for underserved communities Driving economic growth and supporting sustainable development in developing destinations Fostering preservation and enhanced appreciation

• f local

culture and heritage

OUR ROLE

We partner with destinations, businesses, and communities in their journey towards a more sustainable future

WE’VE WORKED IN OVER 100 DESTINATIONS AROUND THE WORLD

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

OBJECTIVE

To establish the current tourism

development status with regards to a

number of key indicators To define the acceptable amount of

change of certain parameters in view of

achieving sustainable development on these small and vulnerable islands

OUTPUTS OF THE STUDY

Identification of tourism Carrying Capacity Priority Issues

Establish Desired Conditions and Thresholds Recommendations on the tourism development model

DESIRED OUTCOME OF THE STUDY

Quality of visitor experience Economic contribution

• f tourism sector

Residents quality of life Environmental protection and conservation

Define desired conditions and thresholds for tourism growth and associated impacts from tourism that balances:

OUR METHODOLOGY

Step 1. Research Priority Issues Step 2. Capture Visitor Inputs Step 3. Capture Resident, Industry and Expert Inputs Step 4. Validate Findings Step 5. Establish Conditions and Thresholds

4 MAIN SOURCES OF DATA

Secondary Data

Desk Research

1

Tourist Input

Intercept survey at airport and GPS traker

Resident Input

Town hall meetings

3 2 4

Expert Input

Public, Private and NGO sector workshops

LIST OF KEY PLANNING DOCUMENTS

Tourism Master Plan, 2018 La Digue Vision 2032, Seychelles Strategic Land Use and Development Plan, 2015 Tourism Sector Strategy, 2019 Carrying Capacity Studies (2013, 2014, 2016) Value Chain Analysis, 2016

VISITOR SITE EXERCISE

VISITOR SITE EXERCISE

Visit each of the 3 Touristic site location

> > Use blue sticky dot to reflect your

desired condition

> Use red sticky dot to reflect your

threshold condition

SNAPSHOT OF TOURISM INDUSTRY ECONOMICS

THE SEYCHELLES IS THE 20TH FASTEST GROWING TOURISM ECONOMY IN THE WORLD!

Source: WTTC, 2019

2018 Rank (out of 185 countries) 2018 T&T GDP growth (%) 2018 Country GDP (US$ Bn) 2018 T&T contribution to GDP (US$ Bn) 2018 T&T % of country GDP 2018 Economy GDP growth (%) 2018 T&T contributio n to employme nt (000s) 2018 T&T % of country employme nt 2029 T&T contributio n to employme nt (000s) Jobs created by T&T 2018- 2029 (000s)

Ethiopia 1 48.6 78.3 7.4 9.4 7.8 2,186 8.3 2,587 401 Seychelles 20

8.5

1.6 1.1

67.1

4.6 31 66.7 33 2

Top 20 Countries – Fastest Growing in Terms of T&T GDP (WTTC)

SEYCHELLES IS THE 4TH MOST TOURISM DEPENDENT ECONOMY IN THE WORLD!

2017 Tourism’s TOTAL Contribution to GDP %

3 Maldives

76.6%

4 Seychelles

65.3%

29 Mauritius

23.4%

48 Madagascar

16.6%

REGIONAL COUNTRY RANKINGS

Source: WTTC, 2018

TOURISM IS THE PRINCIPAL CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ECONOMY IN SEYCHELLES

Source: WTTC, 2018

2017 Amount % of total

Direct contribution to GDP

SCR 5,339.6mn 26.4%

Total contribution to GDP

SCR 13,192.0mn 65.3%

Direct employment

12,500 jobs 26.5%

Total employment

30,500 jobs 66.0%

Visitor exports

SCR 7,926.6mn 40.2%

T&T investment

SCR 2,022.7mn 29.3%

TOURISM DEMAND GROWTH

VISITOR ARRIVALS BY AIR MORE THAN DOUBLED IN THE LAST DECADE, REACHING 384,204 IN 2019

130,046 384,204

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2000-2008 CAGR 3.1% 2009-2017 CAGR 10.4% 2017-2019 CAGR 4.8% 2009-2019 Increased by 2.4

Source: MOT Tourism Master Plan, Tourism Department

• 10.1 nights average length of stay, 2019
• 10% increase in average length of stay from 2017

Visitor Arrivals By Air (2000-2019)

CRUISE PASSENGER ARRIVALS ALSO DOUBLED, REACHING 43,978 IN 2019

19,798 6131 43,978

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: SPA 2019

2014-2019 CAGR 48.3% 2004-2019 CAGR 15.6% 2009-2019 Increased by 2.2

Cruise Passenger Arrivals (2010-2019)

HOWEVER, TOURISM EARNINGS PER VISITOR DECREASED BY 21%

1968 1366 1555

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: MOT Tourism Master Plan, 2018

2010-2016 CAGR -7% 2010-2018 CAGR -3% 2016-2018 CAGR 6.7%

• Benchmark: Mauritius $1233 ; Maldives $2133 (2016)

Tourism Earnings Per Visitor USD$

SEYCHELLES IS ONE OF THE TOP 20 COUNTRIES WHERE TOURISTS OUTNUMBER RESIDENTS

Ratio of local residents to annual tourism arrivals Total population of Seychelles 97,625 Total Stay-over Arrivals 384,204 Tourists per resident 3.94

Source: NBS, 2019; TD, 2019; Telegraph.uk, 2017

• Benchmark: Maldives 2.95 (2017)

PERCEPTION OF SAFETY AND SECURITY AFFECTS SEYCHELLES’ MARKET POSITIONING

6,704 8,042 10,168 15,900 22,262 27307 35816

77% 81% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2010-2018 CAGR: 23,3%

Source: NBS

Crimes against visitors in 2019: 214 (Mahe, 153; Praslin 52; La Digue, 9) The Safety & Security Committee has been created to address crimes against visitors.

Recorded crime cases (including traffic offences) (2010 – 2019)

TOURISM SUPPLY DYNAMICS

TOURISM BED SUPPLY ALSO DOUBLED IN THE LAST 6 YEARS, REACHING 14,546 IN 2019

6490 14546 64… 58% 59% 60% 57% 63% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Average Number of Beds Available 2013 - 2018 Occupancy rate

2013-2019 CAGR: 13.4%

Source: NBS Migration, Tourism 2018 Report (table 20)

In 2015 the Government introduced a moratorium on the construction of hotels with more than 24 rooms, in order to curb new developments and reduce pressure

• n the environment.

2013-2019 Increased by 2.2

Bed Supply Growth and Occupancy Rate (2013 – 2019)

HOTEL BED SUPPLY IS MAINLY LOCATED IN MAHE AND DOMINATED BY SELF-CATERING ROOMS

Source: NBS, 2019

Hotel Bed Distribution, 2019

Mahe Praslin La Digue Inner Islands Outer Islands Total % Large Hotels

(24+ rooms)

3172 802 138 234 142 4488 31% Medium Hotels 318 598 176 60 50 1202 8% Small Hotels 458 302 186 252 32 1230 8% Guest Houses B&B 320 72 68 22 482 3% Guest Houses 214 136 160 58 568 4% Self-Catering 3220 1294 588 44 5146 35% Total Land Beds 7702 3204 1316 670 224 13116 90% Floating Beds 1084 290 34 22 1430 10% Grand total 8786 3494 1350 692 224 14546 % 60% 24% 9% 5% 2%

• Licensing of tourism establishments through change of use from residential houses has been facilitated by a

fast-track initiative.

• Only 21 hotels (0.14%) have adhered to the Seychelles Sustainable Tourism label

MAHE: FROM 2000 SELF-CATERING ROOMS INCREASED 23X REACHING 3220 BEDS BY 2019

Source: NBS, 2019

MAHE

Number of tourism beds in 2000 Number of tourism beds in 2016 Number of tourism beds in 2019 Increase between 2000 and 2019 [x times] Occupancy Rate 2018 Large + Medium Hotels 1,050 3,502 3630 3.5 77% Small Hotels 268 640 318 1.2 Guesthouses 136 514 534 4 49% Self-Catering 142 2,670 3220 23 52% Total 1,596 7,326 7702 4.8

Beau Vallon, Bel Ombre and Glacis: reserved for Seychellois only and shall be limited to 20 rooms per developer.

PRASLIN: FROM 2000 SELF-CATERING ROOMS INCREASED 9X REACHING 1294 BEDS BY 2019

Source: NBS, 2019

PRASLIN

Number of tourism beds in 2000 Number of tourism beds in 2016 Number of tourism beds in 2019 Increase between 2000 and 2019 [x times Occupancy Rate 2018 Large + Medium Hotels 1,038 1,390 1400 1.4 69% Small Hotels 230 374 302 1.3 Guesthouses 68 170 208 3.1 63% Self-Catering 138 1,032 1294 9.4 62% Total 1,474 2,966 3204 2.2

LA DIGUE: FROM 2000 SELF-CATERING ROOMS INCREASED 21X REACHING 588 BEDS BY 2019

Source: NBS, 2019

LA DIGUE

Number of tourism beds in 2000 Number of tourism beds in 2016 Number of tourism beds in 2019 Increase between 2000 and 2019 [x times] Occupancy Rate 2018 Large + Medium Hotels 198 304 314 1.6 65% Small Hotels 88 176 186 2.1 Guesthouses 68 204 228 3.4 47% Self-Catering 28 506 588 21 59% Total 382 1,190 1316 2.1

New accommodation establishments on La Digue was limited to 5 rooms per establishment

HOTEL PIPELINE WILL DOUBLE THE NUMBER OF ROOMS AVAILABLE

Hotel Bed Development Pipeline

Mahe Praslin La Digue Others Total Large 5272 1428 444 7644 Medium 182 48 230 Small 20 20 Guesthouses + B&B Self-catering 1316 333 155 12 1816 Total Pipeline 6790 1809 155 456 9710 Existing supply 8786 3494 1350 916 14546 % Increase 77% 52% 11% 50% 67% Despite the moratorium on large hotels, hotels that had obtained prior approval from GoS, a number of large hotels are either under construction or on various stages of planning. From the small facilities 161 of 346 are change of use (485 beds). Additionally there are 127 new project where the number of beds are not stated.

HOTEL DISTRIBUTION

LIMITED LAND FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT AND COASTAL AREAS ALREADY SATURATED

Land Use

• 115 islands with a total land area of
• nly 455 km2
• 48% of terrestrial protected area
• 88% of forest coverage (4th in

world)

• Limited available land → increasing

competition for suitable land

• Restriction on development above

50M mark on Praslin and La Digue removed 3 years ago

• Lack of standards for eco friendly

tourism investment and operations

• High development density risks:

flooding, landslides, etc.

DMCS OFFER SIMILAR TOURS AND SITES, CONTRIBUTING TO CONGESTION IN ROADS AND SITES AND LOW DIVERSIFICATION

Market share estimate

DMCs: 50%

Main sites

Beaches, Mission Lodge, Tea Factory, Takamaka distillery

Restaurant Offer

Limited supply creole and specialty restaurants

Traffic congestion

Rental cars, private cars with guide, minibus

Cultural products

Low visitation to cultural sites and availability of local handicraft

Small ecotourism offer

Only small number of hiking trails in active use, limited specialized guides

PRESSURE ON UTILITIES AND ENVIRONMENT

SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT RELIES ON LANDFILLS THAT ARE AT OR OVER CAPACITY

Solid Waste Management

• Waste generated per Resident 1.57 kg

/ per visitor 1-2kg a day

• Providence, Anse Royale and La Digue

landfills have reached or are about to reach saturation points.

• Praslin: open-air dumping site not

equipped with a sanitary landfill.

• Mahe Landfill close to communities / La

Digue close to area of high touristic value / Praslin next to the airport

• Only 5% of waste is recycled
• Effectiveness of 2017 ban on single

use plastic

MOST HOTELS RELY ON OWN WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANTS

Sewage Management

• No treatment plants on Praslin & La

Digue; new sanitation facility started construction in La Digue (2020)

• In Mahe 25% of the waste water

infiltration is due to pipe damage; plans for rehabilitation of existing sewage system in Greater Victoria

• Hotels in North Mahe are connected

to the PUC sewage system

• Most other hotels have their own

treatment plants; bacterial tests every 2 years for license renewal

HOTEL SECTOR PUTS CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE ON FRESHWATER RESOURCES

Water Management

• Annual water use per capita (m3):

104 (Mahe- 102.2; Praslin - 111.6; La Digue -123.5) / Tourism consumption: 70l – 600l per room night

• Total water consumption has been

increasing by 4-5% per year

• Most water is from ground sources;

harvesting and storage is limited. Desalinated introduced = 16% of water supply

• La Digue: water resources are

limited; desalination is the only viable

HOTEL SECTOR REPRESENTS 50% OF COMMERCIAL SECTOR ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Energy Management

• 4063 (kWh) Annual energy

consumption per capita;

– 26.42 (kWh) Energy consumption per guest night

• 97% of the energy supply is based on

fossil fuels;

– plans to increase renewable energy sources by 5% in 2020 and 15% by 2030

• In 2016, large hotels (>20 rooms)

represented 34% of energy consumed (Energy Study, 2016);

• 5.4 MTCo2 emission per capita

– 13.06 MT Co2 per guest night

• No electricity generation on La Digue.

CAPITAL INVESTMENT ON TOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE

RECENT AIRPORT INVESTMENT INCREASED CAPACITY TO 1.2M PASSENGERS PER YEAR

Airport Capacity

• High airport density: 214 aircraft

departures per 100 resident

• 2106 seats a day, 14 operating airlines
• TD Target is to grow the number of

airline seats to 2,260 per day.

• Despite continued decreased from 2014

to 2018, the load factors have increase by 3% from 2018-2019.

• Land Reclamation will be required to

support the construction of the second runway/taxiway.

• Phase two of airport expansion plan

2050 doubles current capacity

THE INDIAN OCEAN PORT ASSOCIATION PREDICTS 100.000 CRUISE VISITORS BY 2030

Port/Jetty Capacity

• No cruise tourism strategy in place, not

yet ready to accept 100k visitors

• Seychelles receives less cruise ships

compared to the other regional islands

• Port of Victoria operating at capacity,

108% berth occupancy

• Mahe Quay can accommodate 2 average

sized vessels, IPHS (Ile du Port) can accommodate 1 vessel

– Extension plan 40m outward and 320m length (2021).

• Praslin Jetty: in need of improved and

expanded facilities.

• La Digue Jetty: plan is to upgrade the

present jetty

IDENTIFIED IMPACTS OF TOURISM

Economic contribution of tourism Safety and security Hotel Development

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES

Product Offering Tourism dependent economy Congestion

IDENTIFIED IMPACTS OF TOURISM

Water consumption Energy consumption Sewage treatment

PHYSICAL-ENVIRONMENTAL

Sustainable tourism practices Waste management Conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity

INTERACTIVE ACTIVITIES

INSTRUCTIONS

AS INDIVIDUALS RANK PRIORITY ISSUES Each participant will receive a printed piece of paper to prioritize issues

ACTIVITY 1

AS GROUPS DEFINE IDEAL TOURISM MODEL Participants will be asked to come to a consensus in evaluating tourism arrivals and bed supply ideal condition and thresholds as well as evaluating the tourism experience factors that will allow the destination to increase visitor spend.

ACTIVITY 2

CARRYING CAPACITY FRAMEWORK DEFINITIONS

• Baseline data refers to current data that is available and already measured / monitored

in Seychelles, either by government entities, other national institutions or external international sources.

• Desired conditions are the ideal figures or situation that would be suitable for

Seychelles, and whose achievement is desired, as it would imply a significant improvement of current conditions (baseline data). Desired conditions should not be seen as static figures and they should be regularly reviewed and updated, and they should seek continuous improvement of conditions, once targets have been met.

• Thresholds are the figures or conditions that are deemed acceptable but whose limits

cannot (or should not) be exceeded, as this would mean a significant deterioration of the current conditions to which immediate actions should be taken. Just as desired conditions, thresholds should also be regularly reviewed and updated to reflect on limits

• f acceptable change that Seychelles can handle.

CARRYING CAPACITY ISSUES TRAFFIC LIGHT RANKING

Red

Current condition has already exceeded the threshold

Yellow

Current condition has exceeded the ideal condition but not the threshold

Green

Current condition is already at the ideal condition, however, monitoring is important

1 2 3

COFFEE BREAK

MERSI!

Paloma Zapata palomaz@sustainabletravel.org