Space Weather: A National Imperative Dr. Stephen Volz, Assistant - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Space Weather: A National Imperative Dr. Stephen Volz, Assistant - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Space Weather: A National Imperative Dr. Stephen Volz, Assistant Administrator NOAA Satellite and Information Service Space Weather Enterprise Forum October 21, 2015 NOAA Satellite and Information Service Outline The Imperative

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Space Weather Enterprise Forum October 21, 2015

NOAA Satellite and Information Service

Space Weather: A National Imperative

  • Dr. Stephen Volz, Assistant Administrator

NOAA Satellite and Information Service

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Outline

  • The Imperative
  • Overview of NOAA’s Role
  • Where We Are Now
  • Global space weather observing system
  • Looking to the Future
  • New Administration commitment
  • New observations, models, and products
  • Planning for future observations
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The Imperative

  • Space Weather impacts a wide variety of critical

infrastructure elements

  • Electrical power transmission
  • Air and Space transportation
  • Satellite operation
  • Space-Based Positioning, Navigation, and Timing

(e.g. GPS)

  • Pipelines
  • Railways
  • Serious impacts to health, governance, and the

economy could result from an extreme space weather event

  • 1989 Quebec 9-hour blackout: >$500M impact
  • 2003 NYC 24-hour blackout: 100 fatalities
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NASA’s ACE NASA’s SOHO DSCOVR GOES Multiple ground-based observatories Real-Time Solar Wind Network: Germany, Korea, Japan, U.S. NASA’s SDO NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

NOAA’s Role: Operational Space Weather System

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NOAA’s Role: Building a Weather Ready Nation

  • NWS imperative: protect life & property while enhancing

commerce

  • NWS strategic outcome:

“Ready, responsive, resilient”

  • Extreme weather events arena remains the focus
  • “Impact-based Decision Support Services” (IDSS)

tailored to specific areas such as space weather

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NOAA’s Role: Reaching Users

SWPC customers currently include:

  • Electric utilities
  • Banking
  • Emergency

response

  • Shipping
  • Aviation
  • Precision

agriculture

  • Surveying
  • Oil drilling
  • Satellite
  • perators

4000 8000 12000 16000 20000 24000 28000 32000 36000 40000 44000 48000 52000

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Number of Customers Sunspot Number

Customers Solar Cycle

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Where We Are Now

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Global Space Weather Observing System: Interagency Partnerships

  • Both NASA research and NOAA operational assets support NOAA’s

space weather forecasting mission

  • SWPC uses U.S. Air Force contributions operationally

– Including both data from USAF ground networks of optical and radio telescopes and USAF models

  • Complementary research and operational flight opportunities exist

– NOAA will coordinate with NASA Heliophysics regarding the potential use of future operational platform(s) to meet some of both agencies’ objectives

  • Development of new technologies will advance space weather

forecasting capabilities

– NOAA will continue to work with NASA Heliophysics and Space Technologies Mission Directorate on new sensors and new technologies

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Global Space Weather Observing System: International Partnerships & the RTSW Network

RTSW: NOAA RTSW: DLR RTSW: NICT RTSW: KSWC RTSW:

NOAA

Real-Time Solar Wind Network (RTSW)

Germany: DLR Korea: KSWC Japan: NICT US: NOAA

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Global Space Weather Observing System: International Partnerships

Collaboration on Space Weather Forecasting and Services

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Looking to the Future

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New Administration Commitment

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New NOAA Observational Assets

NOAA DSCOVR At L1 as of June 8, 2015 NOAA GOES-R Launching in late 2016 COSMIC-2 Launching 2016–2019

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New Models and Products

Highlight: Geospace Model of Earth’s Magnetosphere

  • Developed in collaboration with U. Michigan and NASA/CCMC.
  • Driven by solar wind data from DSCOVR
  • Provides regional magnetic field changes
  • Enables GIC predictions and regional products for the electric power industry
  • Solar Wind

DSCOVR Magnetosphere

SWMF Geospace Model: Product showing the change in magnetic field across North America 22-23 June 2015

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Future Observations Planning

  • Space Weather Follow-on plan will provide continuity and

improve on DSCOVR observations

– Details of implementation will be driven by NESDIS architecture studies

  • Key new observation will be coronagraph images from the sun-

earth line

  • NOAA will be coordinating with international partners as well on

possible missions to explore options to improve the observing system

– Such as off-sun-earth angle coronagraph images from L5 to continue STEREO improvements to forecasting.

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National Attention to Space Weather

  • 2008, Severe Space Weather Events:

Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report, National Academies Press.

  • 2013, FERC Order 779 to electric power

transmission operators: GMD protection mandate.

  • 2015, House Resolution 1073: Critical

Infrastructure Protection Act includes space weather threats.

  • 2015, DHS Strategic National Risk Assessment

includes space weather threats.

  • 2015, OSTP National Space Weather Strategy

and Action Plan.

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The Imperative Revisited

Will we be ready?

Credit: Originally published by the British Royal Astronomical Society; provided by the NASA Astrophysics Data System.

1859 2012

Credit: ESA&NASA/SOHO