Source Attribution of Attainment and Exposure- Based Ozone Metrics - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Source Attribution of Attainment and Exposure- Based Ozone Metrics - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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October 17, 2012 Source Attribution of Attainment and Exposure- Based Ozone Metrics Amanda Pappin, Amir Hakami Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Carleton University Outline regulatory standards sensitivity methods

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Source Attribution of Attainment and Exposure- Based Ozone Metrics

Amanda Pappin, Amir Hakami

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Carleton University

October 17, 2012

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Outline

  • regulatory standards
  • sensitivity methods
  • adjoint response of policy metrics:
  • attainment
  • exposure
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Ozone Standards

threshold-based standards are devised to protect public health

  • design value = fourth-highest concentration measured in a

year, averaged over 3 years, not to exceed 75 ppb (65 in Canada)

  • daily maximum 8-hr average
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Attainment

all locations have equal weighting locations are weighted by population e.g. mortality, health “damages”

versus Exposure Metrics

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…and thus different responses to emission controls

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An ideal regulatory approach would differentiate between source impacts

preferential targeting of the most “damaging” emissions

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Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis

INPUTS/ SOURCES OUTPUTS/ RECEPTORS

𝜖𝐾 𝜖𝑦𝑗

𝑦 𝐾(𝑧)

where influences come from

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Adjoint Cost Functions

1. “probabilistic” attainment metric 2. exposure metric

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Possible Cost Functions

  • 4th-highest simulated concentration
  • probability of non-attainment
  • probability-weighted concentrations
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Adjoint Cost Function (1)

Attainment

  • average design value (C4-highest > 65 ppb) in Canada & U.S.

𝐾 = 1 𝑂𝑗,𝑘 1 𝑄 𝑄𝑢𝐷𝑢

92 𝑢=1 𝑗,𝑘

Ct = simulated max 8-hr avg ozone concentration for day “t” 𝑄𝑢 = probability that 𝐷𝑢 is among the fourth-highest simulated concentrations 𝑄 = 𝑄𝑢

92 𝑢=1

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Adjoint Cost Function (1)

Attainment

  • average design value (C4-highest > 65 ppb) in Canada & U.S.

𝐾 = 1 𝑂𝑗,𝑘 1 𝑄 𝑄𝑢𝐷𝑢

92 𝑢=1 𝑗,𝑘

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Adjoint Cost Function (2)

Exposure

  • short-term mortality in Canada & U.S.

𝐾 = 𝑁0 ∙ 𝑄𝑝𝑞 ∙ 𝑓𝛾∙𝐷

𝑗,𝑘

𝑁0 = non-accidental mortality rate 𝑄𝑝𝑞 = population 𝛾 = pollutant response coefficient, 0.0427% per ppb 𝐷 = max 8-hr avg ozone concentration

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Adjoint Cost Function (2)

Exposure

  • short-term mortality in Canada & U.S.

𝐾 = 𝑁0 ∙ 𝑄𝑝𝑞 ∙ 𝑓𝛾∙𝐷

𝑗,𝑘

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Case Study

  • Gas-phase CMAQ adjoint (4.5.1)
  • North American domain
  • 36 km resolution
  • 34 vertical layers
  • July-Sept 2007
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Results

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Attainment

10% NOx reduction → O3 design value

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Exposure

10% NOx reduction → O3 mortality

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Attainment vs. Exposure

10% NOx reduction → O3 mortality 10% NOx reduction → O3 design value

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  • 0.1

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 ppb reduction in design value avoided deaths/yr

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Atlanta Time-Series

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 01-Jul-07 16-Jul-07 31-Jul-07 15-Aug-07 30-Aug-07 15-Sep-07 ppb reduction in design value avoided deaths/day Exposure Attainment

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Is there a way to directly account for population exposure in regulation?

Combined response of attainment and exposure metrics

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Thank you.

Interested in CMAQ-adjoint?

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Back-up Slides

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Adjoint Cost Functions

Attainment 𝑄𝑗 = 𝑜 𝑘 ∙ 𝑄(𝐷 ≥ 𝐷𝑃3,𝑗)

𝑘 ∙ 𝑄(𝐷 ≤ 𝐷𝑃3,𝑗) 𝑜−𝑘 3 𝑘=0

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Exposure

  • 0.25
  • 0.20
  • 0.15
  • 0.10
  • 0.05

0.00 0.05 0.10 01-Jul-07 16-Jul-07 31-Jul-07 15-Aug-07 30-Aug-07 15-Sep-07 avoided deaths/day New York NOx Los Angeles NOx Atlanta NOx Hamilton NOx

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Attainment

  • 5.0E-03

0.0E+00 5.0E-03 1.0E-02 1.5E-02 2.0E-02 2.5E-02 01-Jul-07 16-Jul-07 31-Jul-07 15-Aug-07 30-Aug-07 15-Sep-07 ppb reduction in design value New York NOx Los Angeles NOx Atlanta NOx Hamilton NOx

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LA Time-Series

0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025

  • 0.12
  • 0.10
  • 0.08
  • 0.06
  • 0.04
  • 0.02

0.00 0.02 0.04 01-Jul-07 16-Jul-07 31-Jul-07 15-Aug-07 30-Aug-07 15-Sep-07 ppb reduction in design value avoided deaths/day Exposure Attainment