Presentation to the Third ALTER-Net Summerschool, Peyresq, Alpes de Haute-Provence, September 2008 Sociometabolic transitions in human history and present, and their impact upon biodiversity Marina Fischer-Kowalski Institute of Social Ecology IFF Vienna, Klagenfurt University, Austria
Outline 1. Conceptual clarifications: social metabolism and metabolic profiles, sociometabolic regimes, transitions 2. key features of the historical transition from the agrarian to the industrial regime 3. patterns of ongoing transformations in the South, in relation to the historical Northern transition, and in the context of global interdepency 4. How does all this relate to biodiversity, and to understanding trajectories of change? Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 2
Social metabolism – metabolic profile • Organismic analogy: any social system, like an organism, requires a steady flow of energy and matter to reproduce itself • How much, and what kind of energy and matter it requires, is deeply built into the structures and functioning of the social system, and beyond certain points hard to change (metabolic profile). • The toolbox and indicators of material & energy flow analysis (MEFA) match, in units of tonnes and joules, the toolbox of macroeconomic accounting, in monetary units. • The social system‘s material and energy requirements, both on the input side (resource extraction) and on the output side (wastes and emissions) constitute pressures upon the environment, and induce changes. • Social metabolism: hinge concept/methodology between socioeconomic systems and ecological systems Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 3
Model of material social metabolism (according to MEFA) Air, Water Water Vapour Imports Exports Emigrants Immigrants Economic Processing DMI DPO DE DE=domestic DMC= extraction domestic material DMI=domestic Stocks consumpti material input on =DMI - DPO=domestic exports Domestic Environment processed output Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 4
composition of materials input (DMC) material input EU15 (tonnes, in %) total: 17 tonnes/cap*y Biomass construction minerals industr.minerals fossil fuels source: EUROSTAT 2003 Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 5
Composition of DPO: Wastes and emissions (outflows) DPO total: 16 tons per capita D PO t o air ( C O2 ) D PO t o air* D PO t o wat er D PO t o land ( wast e) D PO t o land ( dissipat ive use) unweighted means of DPO per capita for A, G, J, NL, US; metric tons Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 6 Source: WRI et al., 2000; own calculations
Sociometabolic regimes The theory of sociometabolic regimes (Sieferle) claims that, in world history, certain modes of human production (Ricardo, Marx) and subsistence (Adam Smith, Diamond) can be broadly distinguished that share, at whatever point in time and irrespective of biogeographical conditions, certain fundamental systemic characteristics, derived from the way they utilize and thereby modify nature. Key constraint: energy system (sources of energy and main technologies of energy conversion). Result: characteristic metabolic profile (range of materials and energy use per capita) Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 7
Sociometabolic regimes can be characterized by ... 1. a metabolic profile, that is a certain structure and level of energy and materials use (range per capita of human population) 2. secured by certain infrastructures and a range of technologies, as well as 3. certain economic and governance structures. 4. A certain pattern of demographic reproduction, human life time and labor structure, and 5. a certain pattern of environmental impact: land-use, resource exploitation, pollution and impact on the biological evolution 6. Key regulatory positive and negative feedbacks between the socio- economic system and its natural environment that mould and constrain the reproduction of the socioecological regime. Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 8
Transitions between sociometabolic regimes – research strategy transition ? Hunters and Sustainable ? Agrarian Industrial gatherers Postindustrial? Knowledge society? Socio-metabolic regimes Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 9 Source: Sieferle et al. 2006, modified
Transitions Within regimes gradualism and path dependency prevail: the system moves along a path, „maturing“ into a certain direction, often towards a „high level equilibrium trap“ (Boserup 1965, Sieferle 2003), until: – that path is either interrupted from outside (such as: Mongol invasion, major volcano eruption), or – the system implodes / collapses, and possibly falls back to an earlier stage of that same path (Diamond 2005) – or particular (contingent) conditions allow for a transition into another sociometabolic regime Transitions between regimes can be turbulent and chaotic; they are usually irreversible; there is no predetermined outcome or directionality. Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 10
Part 2: The transition from the agrarian to the industrial socioecological regime in history (1600-2000) Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 11
the energy transition 1700-2000: from biomass to fossil fuels Share of energy United Kingdom sources in primary 100 energy biomass 90 consumption coal (DEC) 80 70 60 Biomass 50 Oil / gas Coal OIL/Gas/Nuclear / nuc 40 30 20 10 0 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Social Ecology Data Base Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 12
the energy transition 1700-2000 - latecomers UK Austria United Kingdom Austria 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 Biomass Biomass 50 Coal 50 Coal OIL/Gas/Nuclear OIL/Gas/Nuclear 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Japan 100 Share of energy Japan 90 sources in primary 80 70 energy 60 consumption Biomass 50 Coal OIL/Gas/Nuclear (DEC) 40 30 20 10 0 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Social Ecology Data Base Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 13
Increasing population (density) 1600-2000 Population density (UK incl. Ireland) (cap/km2) 350 300 Japan 250 200 150 100 UK & 50 Ireland Austria 0 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: Maddison 2002, Social Ecology DB Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 14
Reduction of agricultural population, and gain in income 1600-2000 GDP per capita [1990US$] Share of agricultural population 25.000 100% 20.000 80% 15.000 60% 10.000 40% 5.000 20% 0 0% 1 6 0 0 1 6 5 0 1 7 0 0 1 7 5 0 1 8 0 0 1 8 5 0 1 9 0 0 1 9 5 0 2 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 6 5 0 1 7 0 0 1 7 5 0 1 8 0 0 1 8 5 0 1 9 0 0 1 9 5 0 2 0 0 0 Source: Maddison 2002, Social Ecology DB Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 15
Longterm increase in economic energy effciency (1900-2005) Energy Efficiency ($ GDP / GJ primary energy) Efficiency increases: Average 11 % 140 per decade, or Austria 120 roughly 1% United Kingdom annually. 100 Japan 80 [$/GJ] 60 40 20 Source: Social Ecology DB - 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 16
Increasing economic material efficiency (while metabolic profile fairly constant) EU-15 2,4 2,2 On average 20 - 2,0 23% increase in 1,8 economic 1,6 material 1,4 effciency per 1,2 decade 1,0 0,8 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 DMC Social Population Ecology DB GDP Resource Productivity (GDP/DMC) Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 17
Metabolic profiles of the agrarian and industrial regime: transition = explosion Agrarian Industrial Factor Energy use (DEC) per capita [GJ/cap] 40-70 150-400 3-5 Material use (DMC) per capita [t/cap] 3-6 15-25 3-5 Population density [cap/km²] <40 < 400 3-10 [%] >80% <10% 0.1 Agricultural population [GJ/ha] <30 < 600 10-30 Energy use (DEC) per area Material use (DMC) per area [t/ha] <2 < 50 10-30 Biomass (share of DEC) [%] >95 10-30 0.1-0.3 Source: Social Ecology DB Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 18
Metabolic profiles by sociometabolic regimes (DMC/capita) Agrarian Societies Means Industrial Societies 25,0 20,0 t/capita 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 SangSaeng, Thailand 1998 Trinket, Nicobars 2000 Törbel, Switzerland 1875 Austria 1830 UK 1884* Austria 1991 Germany 1991 Japan 1991 Netherlands 1991 USA 1991 Sweden 1991 UK 1991 * UK 1884: DMI data Biomass Minerals Fossils Products Fischer-Kowalski | Peyresq | 9-2008| 19
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