Societal impact of FRA-ROMS data as outcomes GEOSS-AP WG: Ocean - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Societal impact of FRA-ROMS data as outcomes GEOSS-AP WG: Ocean - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Societal impact of FRA-ROMS data as outcomes GEOSS-AP WG: Ocean Observation and Society toward realization of Blue Planet in AP region Tokyo Japan 26-28 May 2014 The 7 th GEOSS Asia-Pacific Symposium Fisheries Research Agency National

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Societal impact of FRA-ROMS data as outcomes

GEOSS-AP WG: Ocean Observation and Society toward realization of “Blue Planet” in AP region Tokyo Japan 26-28 May 2014 The 7th GEOSS Asia-Pacific Symposium Fisheries Research Agency National Research Institute of Fisheries Science Takashi Setou: setou@affrc.go.jp

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Table of contents ■FRA-ROMS ocean forecast system

  • Model and System
  • Comparison analysis between with in-situ monitoring data and without.

■Application of the FRA-ROMS as Societal impact

  • Kuroshio Forecast
  • Appearance Forecast of the giant jelly fish

■Supporting service for Fishery using monitoring data

  • Purpose
  • Correspondence between Kuroshio and catch of juvenile

anchovy

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FRA-ROMS from 2011

FRA-ROMS ocean forecast system

FRA-ROMS URL:http://fm.dc.affrc.go.jp/fra-roms/index.html

Our role:

  • 1. Forecast the ocean condition
  • 2. Forecast the associated fishing ground
  • 3. Announce the information to Japanse people, especially Fishermen.
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FRA-ROMS model and assimilation

FRA-ROMS North pacific FRA-ROMS NW pacific

Based Model： Regional Ocean Model System Resolution： 0.1°×0.1° Assimilation： 3Dvar Fujii and Kamachi,2003 Usui et al. 2005他 Topography： ETOPO5 Forcing： JRA25⇒JRA55 River：1（+8） Changian（Yellow River、 Yanding、Luanhe、 Amonkgang、Tedonggang、 Han、Geum、TeongSan） Period： 1993.Jan-now

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xb：Numerical model xa ：Analysis xo: observation 3D-var assimilation SSH anomaly SST Reanalysis by Incremental Analysis Update Tue:12:00 Sat:0:00 Tue:12:00 Time In situ Temp. Sali.

S →Z S ← Z

Operation of the FRA-ROMS system: (1-cycle=1-week)

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Comparison analysis between with in-situ monitoring data and without the data

Purpose: We assessed the relative impact of Japan Prefectural Fisheries Institute monitoring data by comparing FRA-ROMS modeled fields with assimilated and withheld JPFI data. 50mTemperature difference between reanalysis and observation

Without JPFI data With JPFI data

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Table of contents ■Application of the FRA-ROMS as Societal impact

  • Kuroshio Forecast
  • Appearance Forecast of the giant jelly fish

■Supporting service Fishery using monitoring data

Purpose

  • Correspondence between Kuroshio and catch of juvenile

anchovy

■FRA-ROMS ocean forecast system

  • Model and System
  • Comparison experiment between with monitoring data and without.
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Why does FRA need to forecast the Kuroshio ? Kawabe (1995), JPO

nNLM： nearshore No Large Meander ⇒Middle Temp along Japan coast

tLM：typical Large Meander

⇒Warmer Temp along Japan coast

  • NLM：offshore No Large

Meander

⇒Cooler Temp along Japan coast

Answer: Kuroshio takes three typical path. The coastal condition such as temperature and the associated fishery ground depend on each path. Therefore, FRA needs to forecast the path.

Fish ground changes with temperature !!

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2013.7.27 Initial condition

FRA-ROMS forecast(start:2013.7.27） vs. Analyzed field by Japan Coast Guard

Application 1: Forecast of Kuroshio meander path

2013.8.3 1week later 2013.8.10 2weeks later 2013.8.17 3weeks later 2013.8.24 4weeks later 2013.8.31 5weekw later Kuroshio Current

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July-Aug Passage through Tsushima strait

Giant Jellyfish

(Nemopilema nomurai)

Since 2002, Surge of ‘Giant Jellyfish's’ brings serious damages to fisheries in the waters around Japan. The forecast of the appearance

  • f the Giant Jellyfish is needed for mitigation of damages.

Photo by Dr. Honda (JSNFRI,FRA)

http://jsnfri.fra.affrc.go.jp/ Kurage/kurage_top.html

Giant Jellyfishs entered in a fishing net.

Application 2 : Appearance Forecast of the Giant Jelly fish

Schematic View of Giant Jelly Fish migration

May-July Migration

  • n continental shelf

In East china Sea Aug- To Japan sea and Japan coast Mar.-Apr Birth Around Changing river Mouth

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  • 4. Assessment

On FRA web page Ocean Forecast system of FRA

FRA-ROMS current fields

  • 2. Jellyfish Forecast

Particle model

  • 1. Information from

sampling and sighting

  • 3. forecast of jellyfish

distribution : output Application 2: Appearance Forecast of the Giant Jelly fish Forecasting method (Operate Routinely Spring - Summer)

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Initial:2013Jun23th Real Appearance area informed by R/V One month after: Forecasting by Particle tracking

An example of one month Forecasting of the Giant Jelly Fish migration

Application 2: Appearance Forecast of the Giant Jelly fish

Notice: Accuracy of forecasting has been confirmed by some real drifters.

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Table of contents ■Application of the FRA-ROMS as Societal impact

  • Kuroshio Forecast
  • Appearance Forecast of the giant jelly fish

■Supporting service for Fishery using monitoring data

  • Purpose
  • Correspondence between Kuroshio and catch of juvenile

anchovy

■FRA-ROMS ocean forecast system

  • Model and System
  • Comparison experiment between with monitoring data and without.