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Social, Policy and Governance Modeling: Current Status Report - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Social, Policy and Governance Modeling: Current Status Report Christopher Koliba, Ph.D. Science Leader, Research on Adaptation to Climate Change (RACC) Professor of Public Administration, Policy & Governance University of Vermont In the

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Social, Policy and Governance Modeling: Current Status Report

Christopher Koliba, Ph.D. Science Leader, Research on Adaptation to Climate Change (RACC) Professor of Public Administration, Policy & Governance University of Vermont

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In the face of uncertainties about climate change, land use and lake response scenarios, how can adaptive management interventions (e.g. regulation, incentives, treaties) be designed, valued and implemented in the multi-jurisdictional Lake Champlain Basin? EPS 1101317

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Social and Policy Modeling Group: Who we are…

Asim Zia Associate Professor, University of Vermont Scott Merrill Research Assistant Professor University of Vermont Steven Exler IT Specialist Stephanie Hurley Assistant Professor University of Vermont Richard Kujawa Professor, St. Michael's College Sarah Coleman Ph.D. Student Chris Koliba Team Lead, Professor University of Vermont Scott Tunrbull Software Developer Yushiou Tsai Post Doc Steve Scheinert Post Doc Clare Ginger Associate Professor University of Vermont

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Topics Covered

  • Adaptive management activities (dispersed throughout)

– Public opinion / willingness to pay – Economic costs of clean water – Delphi Forum and Mediated Modeling Workshops

  • Governance network analysis

– Funding and regulatory patterns and planning regimes – Network analysis – Agent-based models

  • Land use and best management practice adoption models

– Land use transitions – economic well being and zoning

  • Scenario generation leading to Integrated Assessment

models

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Governance Network Analysis Research & Modeling Methods

Research methods employed:

  • Surveys
  • Multiple regression analysis
  • Interviews
  • Focus groups
  • Source documents analysis
  • Delphi method
  • Mediated modeling

workshops

  • Comprehensive case study

Computer simulation models and experiments:

  • Agent Based Models
  • Network Analysis
  • Experimental Economics
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Significant advances being made by the Q3 team in the past year:

  • Novel applications of agent based

modeling to landuse transition (Tsai, et al. under review), best management practice adoption (Zia et al., 2013) and governance arrangements (Scheinert et al., accepted for presentation).

  • Establishment of the Socio-Ecological

Gaming and Simulation(SEGS) Laboratory in Jeffords Hall.

  • Advances in institutional network

analysis (modeling task structures and subnetworks by functionality (Koliba et al, accepted for publication; Reynolds et al., under review)).

  • Development of usable social science

results for regional policy makers (Zia et al., 2014; Koliba et al., 2013).

  • Creation of a web-based crowdsoursing

platform to surface adaptive intervention, evaluation criteria (Coleman et al., 2014)

  • Ongoing and deep integration with

hydrologists, environmental engineers, geologists, computer scientists, software developers through IAM integration.

  • New insights into:

– Farmer adoption of BMPs (Zia, 2014) – Farmer land use transitions decision- making (Tsai et al., under review) – Willingness of citizens to pay for clean water (Zia, 2014; Koliba et al., 2013) – Comparison of nutrient flow reduction policies in the 2010 TDML implementation plan and the 2010 Opportunities for Action (Koliba et al, accepted for publication; Scheinert et al., 2014) – Alignment of water quality plans with actual policy implementation (Scheinert et al., 2014) – How stakeholders perceive the range of possible climate change impacts for the region and unique ways to visualize them (Scheinert at al., ND) – Stakeholder ideas and expert opinions regarding what kinds of short, intermediate and long term interventions are possible (Coleman et al., 2014) – Novel uses of crowdsourcing to garner stakeholder input (Coleman et al., 2014)

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Recent Q3-related publications and presentations

Publications

  • Koliba, C., Reynolds, A., Zia, A., and Scheinert, S. (accepted for publication). Isomorphic Properties of Network Governance:

Comparing Two Watershed Governance Initiatives in the Lake Champlain Basin Using Institutional Network Analysis. Complexity, Governance and Networks. 1(2).

  • Koliba, C., Zia, A., Scheinert, S. and Logan, K. (2014). Research on Adaptation to Climate Change: 2013 Water Quality Survey. VT
  • EPSCoR. Burlington, VT.

Publication under review:

  • Tsai, Y., Zia, A., Koliba, C., Bucini, G., Guilbert, J., and Beckage, B. (ND). An Interactive Land Use Transition Agent-Based Model

(ILUTABM): Endogenizing Human- Environment Interactions at Watershed Scales. Land Use Policy. Publications nearing submission:

  • Reynolds, A., Koliba, C., Zia, A., Scheinert, S. (ND). Institutional Network Analysis as a Tool for Research and Practice: Understanding

Network Structures and Strategies from Text Data Mining Presentations:

  • Ziia, A. (2014) Adaptive Governance of Alternate Stable States in Social Ecological Systems: Simulating the Impacts of Alternative

Policy Mixes on Farmer Behaviors. International Conference on Policy Mixes in Environmental and Conservation Policies, Leipzig, Germany (Feb 25-27, 2014)

  • Coleman, S., Hurley, S., Koliba, C., Zia, A., Exler, S. and Hoogenboom, A. (2014). An Interactive Stakeholder Forum: Finding

Interventions for Water Quality & Climate Change Adaptation in Lake Champlain Basin. Universities Council on Water Resources. Annual Conference. Medford MA. :

  • Scheinert, S., Koliba, C., and Zia, A. (2014). The Shape of Watershed Governance: Watershed Governance Implementation Networks

in the Winooski and Missisquoi Watersheds. American Public Policy and Management Annual Conference. Albuquerque, NM.

  • Koliba, C. (2014). Accounting for Human Behavior and Decision Making in modeling Watershed and Basin Wide Dynamics. 2014 New

England Association of Environmental Biologists (NEAEB). Burlington, VT.

  • Zia, A. (2014) “Integrated Assessment Modeling” of Coupled Natural and Human Systems in LCB. Vermont Environment Consortium.

Vergennes, VT.

  • Koliba, C., Zia, A. and Scheinert, S. (2014). Individuals, Action Arenas and Intuitions: Watershed Management and the Pivot of

Governance Networks. !0th Annual TransAtlantic Dialogue. Lugano, Switzerland.

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Adaptive management

Adaptive management is a systematic process for improving management policies and practices by learning from the

  • utcomes of management strategies that have already been
  • implemented. Adaptive water management aims to

increase the adaptive capacity of the water system by putting in place both learning processes and the conditions needed for learning processes to take place.

(Geldof 1995, Pahl-Wostl 2004, 2007)

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Public opinion research

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Source: Koliba et al. 2013 Vermont Water Quality Survey. University of Vermont

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Water quality appears to be important to the Vermonters

Source: Koliba et al. 2013 Vermont Water Quality

  • Survey. University of Vermont
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Source: Koliba et al. 2013 Vermont Water Quality Survey. University of Vermont

And that they feel that it fall mostly to the State, Individuals and the the Federal government to ensure water quality..

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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP November 12, 2012

Source: Vermont EPSCoR

1st Mediated Modeling Workshop

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Areas of possible impact:

AGRICULTURE RIVER MANAG. STORMWATER FOREST MANG. TRANSPORT. WASTEWATER DEVELOPMENT ENERGY

  • EMERG. MANG. PUBLIC HEALTH
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Results of Climate Change Impact Assessment Workshop

(Scheinert et al., ND)

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Sub-Network: The multi-faceted dimension of climate change on lake hydrology

What impacts might this have

  • n our region?
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Governance network analysis and modeling

EPA Na onal Basin-wide State/Provincial Regional Local Landscape LCBP ANR

VTrans

AG Regional Planning Commissions

NRCS

Env. Canada

NY VT QB Indiv. Farm / HH

Local governments Farms Households Conserva on districts, Watershed alliances, etc.

Who are the central watershed management actors in the region and how do they work together?

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(Actual) Agriculture Technical Assistance Network operating in Missisquoi watershed (surveyed, preliminary) (Planned) Agriculture Technical Assistance Network in Missisquoi in the 2014 TMDL (Scheinert et al., ND)

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  • H1: The planned network

designed by the TMDL regulatory network will exhibit more centralized and denser network properties than those designed by the LCBP partnership network.

  • H2: Planned networks

designed by the TMDL network will recommend at a higher percentage of regulatory tools than the LCBP network.

Source: Koliba, C., Reynolds, A., Zia, A., and Scheinert, S. (accepted for publication). Isomorphic Properties of Network Governance: Comparing Two Watershed Governance Initiatives in the Lake Champlain Basin Using Institutional Network Analysis. Complexity, Governance and Networks. 1(2).

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Graphing task structures

Source: Koliba, C., Reynolds, A., Zia, A., and Scheinert, S. (accepted for publication). Isomorphic Properties of Network Governance: Comparing Two Watershed Governance Initiatives in the Lake Champlain Basin Using Institutional Network Analysis. Complexity, Governance and Networks. 1(2).

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Source: Koliba, C., Reynolds, A., Zia, A., and Scheinert, S. (accepted for publication). Isomorphic Properties of Network Governance: Comparing Two Watershed Governance Initiatives in the Lake Champlain Basin Using Institutional Network

  • Analysis. Complexity, Governance and Networks.

1(2).

H1: Affirmed H2: Rejected

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Where does money for water quality mitigation come from?

60 + FEDERAL AND STATE PROGRAMS

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FEDERAL STATE LOCAL

STATE AGENCY A FEDERAL AGENCY A ROADS PLANNING ZONING

FEDERAL AGENCY B FEDERAL AGENCY C STATE AGENCY B STATE AGENCY C

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FEDERAL BASIN STATE WATERSHED (REGIONAL) LOCAL

STATE AGENCY A FEDERAL AGENCY A ROADS PLANNING ZONING

REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISIONS WATERSHED LEVEL NGOs REGIONAL CONSERVATION DISTRICTS FEDERAL AGENCY B FEDERAL AGENCY C STATE AGENCY B STATE AGENCY C BASIN PROGRAM

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FEDERAL BASIN STATE WATERSHED (REGIONAL) LOCAL

STATE AGENCY A FEDERAL AGENCY A ROADS PLANNING ZONING

REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISIONS WATERSHED LEVEL NGOs REGIONAL CONSERVATION DISTRICTS FEDERAL AGENCY B FEDERAL AGENCY C STATE AGENCY B STATE AGENCY C BASIN PROGRAM

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Summer ‘14 Data Collection:

An Institutional Network Analysis of Missisquoi and Winooski Watersheds

  • Deployed an online survey instrument:

– Link to pilot version

Organizational Group Number of Contacts Completed Responses Response Rate (%) Government 56 17 30.4 Regional/NGOs 43 14 32.6 Winooski 48 7 14.6 Missisquoi 37 6 16.2 Total 184 44 23.1

Table: Current Responses by Organizational Grouping

(Scheinert et al., ND)

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Information Sharing for Winooski and Missisquoi Combined (with current data)

(Scheinert et al., ND)

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Technical Assistance Network for Winooski and Missisquoi Combined (with current data)

(Scheinert et al., ND)

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Financial Resource Sharing Network for Winooski and Missisquoi Combined (with current data)

(Scheinert et al., ND)

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SubNetwork Density Scores- compared

Network Density Information Sharing 0.040 Technical Assistance 0.030 Accountability 0.014 Financial Resource Sharing 0.018 Project Collaboration 0.028 Union 0.046

  • Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) will tell us how

attribute relationships and common links influence the chance of two organizations being linked

Table: Combined Win. And Miss. Watershed Water Quality Subnets Density scores (Prelim.)

(Scheinert et al., ND)

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Further Interventions and Modeling

  • Tie Patterns: What is the

relationship between tie presence and the different possible combinations of sector, jurisdiction, and capacity?

  • The answer will calibrate an

network-based ABM for its base evolution over time

  • Survey results from questions

about interventions will direct change in the model that can identify changes in system behavior

Policy intervention response Changes in network config. Network structure

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Policy Preferences

STICKS: REGULATIONS SANCTIONS PERMITS CARROTS: INCENTIVES TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PUBLIC INFORMATION/ EDUCATION

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Combined Win. / Mis. Water Q. Implementation Network: Permits

Scheinert et al., ND

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Combined Win. / Mis. Water Q. Implementation Network: Grants

Scheinert et al., ND

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Combined Win. / Mis. Water Q. Implementation Network: Technical Assistance

Scheinert et al., ND

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Evidence of policy preferences in the 2010 Opportunities for Action (OFA) Plan and the 2010 TMDL Implementation Plan

Source: Koliba, C., Reynolds, A., Zia, A., and Scheinert, S. (accepted for publication). Isomorphic Properties of Network Governance: Comparing Two Watershed Governance Initiatives in the Lake Champlain Basin Using Institutional Network Analysis. Complexity, Governance and Networks. 1(2).

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Resource Availability

V. V.

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Is there a willingness to pay for better water quality?

Source: Koliba et al. 2013 Vermont Water Quality Survey. University of Vermont

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Vermonter Poll, March 2014

  • Phosphorus and Nitrogen pollution from farms, roads and households threatens the long-

term viability of keeping Lake Champlain free of harmful algal blooms. Under business-as- usual scenario of global climate change, more intense and frequent storm events in Vermont could permanently degrade water quality in Lake Champlain unless proactive measures are taken to change farming practices, roadway designs and parking lots in urban

  • areas. All of these proactive changes require upfront costlier investments, but local and

state governments in Vermont do not have any additional financial resources to pay for these costlier infrastructure investments. To protect Lake Champlain water quality in the medium to long run, i.e. 10 to 50 year time scale, what annual fee are you willing to pay: (a) $ 20 as part of your water bill and $ 20 as part of your vehicle registration fees. [yes____; no_____]. If not, how much is the minimum amount you are willing to pay ? $ _____ (b) $ 30 as part of your water bill and $ 30 as part of your vehicle registration fees. [yes____; no_____]. (c) $ 40 as part of your water bill and $ 40 as part of your vehicle registration fees. [yes____; no _____]. (d) $ 50 as part of your water bill and $ 50 as part of your vehicle registration fees. [yes____; no_____]. If yes, how much is the maximum amount you are willing to pay? $_____ (Zia, 2014)

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Willingness to Pay Preliminary Findings

Vermonters of all political ideologies are willing to pay! (Source: Zia, 2014)

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(Preliminary)

Vermonters from all counties are willing to pay! (Source: Zia, 2014)

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Preliminary Findings

Assuming 100,000 vehicle registrants and water payers in VT, annual revenue of $7.75 million can be generated for Lake Champlain clean up

  • fund. This is a

conservative estimate! (Zia, 2014)

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Delphi Forum

RAN: MARCH TO APRIL 2014

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Forum to promote Adaptive Capacity using the Delphi Method:

  • Share ideas & identify
  • pportunities for

collaboration across sectors, governance regimes and scales.

  • Capture and integrate

different forms of expertise & collective knowledge

  • Allow for iterative phases
  • f feedback and

refinement

Oracle of Delphi

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythia

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Participation in CSS2CC.org & Mediated Modeling Workshop

  • 204 registered

participants in CSS2CC.org

  • 53 participants entered

interventions or comments to CSS2CC.org

Federal Government State/Provincial Government Regional Government Town/Local Government Real Estate Development Agriculture Community Development Health Retail Hospitality/Tourism Business Nonprofit Researcher Educator Citizen

Professions of CSS2CC.org Registered Participants (Coleman et al, 2014)

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104 discrete interventions were identified

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104 Identified time periods for implementation of interventions

(Coleman et al., 2014)

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Types of Policy Tools and Actions Suggested (Selected)

REGULATION & TAXATION PUBLIC INFORMATION & TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE GRANTS, SUBSIDIES AND TAX BREAKS GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE / ECO- TECHNOLIGIES MARKET DEVELOPMENT

PLANNING

Incentivize use of emerging eco- technologies for phosphorus capture and reuse from wastewater and stormwater Require smart growth principles and low-impact development practices in planning and design of development and transportation Develop market mechanisms and methods to reclaim phosphorus from farms, runoff, wastewater, and solid wastes Invest in better backroads construction and maintenance Require vegetated buffers in riparian zones and along lakeshores Provide more financial and technical assistance and outreach to promote soil health and associated best practices on farms

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Multi-Criteria Assessment of Intervention Scenarios” Elicitation of Decision Criteria from the Preliminary Analysis

  • f Delphi Survey

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Weights from ROC Method

Weight

Delphi survey solicited ranks on 12 criteria, hence the weights shown in this figure 

Number of attributes Rank 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 75.0 61.1 52.1 45.7 40.8 37.0 2 25.0 27.8 27.1 25.7 24.2 22.8 3 11.1 14.6 15.7 15.8 15.6 4 6.3 9.0 10.3 10.9 5 4.0 6.1 7.3 6 2.8 4.4 7 2.0

Rank Order Centroid (ROC) Method (Zia, ND)

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Criteria Rankings from Delphi (N=135)

Caveat: Respondents were not forced to rank from the most to least important; rather fuzzy set theoretic approach employed (Zia, ND)

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2nd Mediated Modeling Workshop

MAY 14, 2014: Mediated Modeling Workshop: Scenario Development & Evaluation 65 people attended morning presentation 38 people participated in afternoon sessions

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Examples of exogenous factors shaping scenario development

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Most Frequently Selected Critical Interventions

Sector

Intervention

Cross-Sector Develop market mechanisms and incentivize eco-technologies to reclaim phosphorus from

farms, runoff, wastewater, on-site septic systems, and solid wastes

Stormwater

Expand stormwater management regulations for municipalities and private landowners; Require green stormwater infrastructure such as raingardens, bioretention and infiltration techniques to reduce and treat stormwater runoff.

Development & Land Use

Require smart growth principles and low-impact development practices in planning and design of development and transportation

River Management

Require vegetated buffers in riparian zones and along lakeshores Enact a moratorium on wetland impacts and enhance functions of existing wetlands

Transportation Invest in better backroads construction and maintenance practices Agriculture

Provide more financial and technical assistance and outreach to promote soil health and associated best practices on farms Require cover cropping to reduce soil and nutrient loss from agriculture Require nutrient balancing on farms in nutrient management planning and improve management of manure spreading practices. Develop statewide program to subsidize water storage capacity increases on farmland for flood mitigation Invest in inspection and enforcement of water quality regulation on large and medium farms, and require runoff reduction practices for small farms.

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Land Use Transition and BMP Adoption

LCBP 2012

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Land-Use Transition Agent Based Model

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ILUTABM: Socio-economic Scenarios

MDWR: Moderate Downward Wealth Redistribution MAP: Moderately Alleviate Poverty IED: Increase Economic Disparity LDWR: Large Downward Wealth Redistribution IP: Increase Poverty LAP: Largely Alleviate Poverty

(Tsai et al., under review)

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Preliminary Simulation Study Area with Water Quality Sensors

(Tsai et al., ND)

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Preliminary Simulation without Zoning

(Tsai et al., 2014)

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Preliminary Simulation with Zoning

(Tsai et al., ND)

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Predicting Nutrient Management Practices Adoption Under Alternate Policy and Behavioral Scenarios

  • A pilot-tested 22-page 43-question survey instrument implemented

by NASS, USDA on a stratified random sample of farmers in two watersheds

  • Bounded-rational (Conjoint Analysis) approach to estimate the

likelihood of NMP adoption under alternate policy incentives and regulations

  • Theory of Planned Behavior approach to estimate the likelihood of

NMP adoption under different behavioral and social norm conditions

(Zia, 2014)

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Extent of NMP Adoption (N = 80)

(0 = No adoption …4 = Max. adoption)

Buffers at Field Edges Cover Cropping

(Zia, 2014)

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Extent of NMP Adoption (N = 80)

(0 = No adoption …4 = Max. adoption)

Soil Test at least every 3 years

Reduced Tillage

(Zia, 2014)

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Weighted OLS Regression Models Predicting Farmer Intention to Adopt Nutrient Management Practices in Missisquoi and Lamoille Watersheds (N=80)

Cover Cropping Reduced Tillage (strip, zone and no) Applying fertilizer at recommended rates and times Incorporating manure and fertilizer as quickly as possible after application Manure spreading setbacks (from water bodies and private/public wells) Past Practice 0.7609** (0.2590) 0.3709** (0.1407) 0.1471 (0.2499) 0.4115** (0.1754) 0.2553** (0.1158) Attitude

  • 0.0522

(0.1884) 0.3152** (0.1412)

  • 0.0267

(0.1732)

  • 0.0396

(0.0768)

  • 0.0821

(0.0823) Perceived Social Norm 0.2960** (0.1422) 0.1543* (0.0872) 0.3507** (0.1441) 0.1388 (0.0878) 0.1830 (0.0971) Perceived Behavioral Control 0.6145*** (0.1716) 0.5615*** (0.1247) 0.7171*** (0.1145) 0.8013*** (0.1252) 0.9167*** (0.0944) Constant 0.4697** (0.2076) 0.0767 (0.1288) 1.2703** (0.4244) 0.7623* (0.4455) 0.3407 (0.2402) R2 and (BIC) 0.6960 (351.46) 0.8322 (286.98) 0.5676 (384.53) 0.6678 (370.70) 0.7575 (349.75) Coefficients with * are significant at p>0.01; ** at p>0.05; and *** at p>0.001. Standard Errors are in Brackets.

  • (Zia, 2014)
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Weighted OLS Regression Models Predicting Farmer Intention to Adopt Nutrient Management Practices in Missisquoi and Lamoille Watersheds (N=80)

Planned Crop Rotations Soil Test at least every three years Strip Cropping N, P & K Applications at rates recommended by soil tests Buffers at field edges Past Practice 0.6889** (0.2182) 0.1248 (0.2407) 0.9137** (0.4307)

  • 0.0274

(0.2103) 0.7296** (0.3449) Attitude

  • 0.2184

(0.1663) 0.1425 (0.1330)

  • 0.2848

(0.2388) 0.1429 (0.1389)

  • 0.3071*

(0.1797) Perceived Social Norm Omitted due to MC Omitted due to MC Omitted due to MC 0.1556* (0.0890) 0.1854 (0.1259) Perceived Behavioral Control 0.9077*** (0.1378) 0.7750*** (0.0924) 0.8056*** (0.2437) 0.8672*** (0.0936) 0.7883*** (0.1034) Constant 0.7445** (0.2467) 1.0419** (0.4376) 0.3423** (0.0932) 0.7392** (0.2663) 0.7616** (0.3064) R2 and (BIC) 0.7354 (343.70) 0.6984 (338.98) 0.8163 (264.53) 0.7909 (321.23) 0.6522 (372.31)

  • (Zia, 2014)
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Conjoint Analysis Question Example

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bC 'B ;+ 7'5'K% ;8<'+ 7% ': 8% '& : "' ) #% '= : ?+ '> ;9% > & '+ : 'A 7: : ?% C ') 8D'b'K% ;8<'+ 7% ': 8% '& : "') # % '> % ) ?+ '> ;9% > & '+ : 'A 7: : ?% 4 ' X> % ) ?% '#% * % #'+ : '+ 7% ') 33% 8D;F'* : # 'D% * ;8;+ ;: 8?': * 'A : 8?% #$) + ;: 8'3# ) A + ;A % ?';* '8% % D% D4 '' ' I 8 9 32&! $7-8 9# A&$I 7-I 23# &$9 K# L?M N O # J : "'B ;> > 'K% '3) ;D'VTf Z) A # % '+ : ';= 3> % = % 8+ 'A : 8?% #$) + ;: 8'+ ;> > ) <% 4 ' ' J : "'B ;> > 'K% '3) ;D'Vdf Z) A # % '+ : ';= 3> % = % 8+ 'A : $% #'A #: 33;8<4 ' ' J : "'B ;> > 'K% '3) ;D'V5f Q Z) A # % '+ : ';= 3> % = % 8+ 'A : 8?% #$) + ;: 8'K"* * % #?4 ' ' J : "'B ;> > 'K% '3) ;D'V5Pf Z) A # % '+ : ';= 3> % = % 8+ 'A : 8?% #$) + ;: 8'+ ;> > ) <% ') 8D'A : $% #' A #: 33;8<4 ' ' J : "'B ;> > 'K% '3) ;D'V5bf Z) A # % '+ : ';= 3> % = % 8+ 'A : 8?% #$) + ;: 8'K"* * % #?') 8D' A : 8?% # $) + ;: 8'+ ;> > ) <% 4 ' ' J : "'B ;> > 'K% '3) ;D'V5bQ Z) A # % '+ : ';= 3> % = % 8+ 'A : $% #'A #: 3?') 8D'A : 8?% #$) + ;: 8' K"* * % #'?+ #;3?4 ' ' J : "'B ;> > 'K% '3) ;D'VPf Q Z) A # % '+ : ';= 3> % = % 8+ 'A : $% #'A #: 3?C 'A : 8?% #$) + ;: 8' K"* * % #?') 8D'A : 8?% # $) + ;: 8'+ ;> > ) <% 4 ' '

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Preliminary Results: WTA of Farmers for Implementation of Conservation Practices Option Practices WTA 1 Tillage $85.99 2 Cover cropping $125.16 3 Buffers $168.33 4 Tillage & Cover cropping $211.15 5 Tillage & Buffers $254.32 6 Cover cropping & Buffers $293.49 7 Cover cropping, Tillage, & Buffers $349.48

  • Source: Jen Miller MS Thesis
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Conservation Tillage Adoption Behavior ABM Design and Calibrated Parameters

(Zia, 2014)

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NMP Adoption Behavior ABM: Baseline Policy Mix Scenario

(Zia, 2014)

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NMP Adoption Behavior ABM: Policy mix scenario with twice as much technical and financial assistance

(Zia, 2014)

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SLIDE 71

Experimental Design and Gaming

(Messer et al., ND)

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SLIDE 72

Board Game Trials

July 23rd & 24th

Roberta Molokandov preparing for board game trials Participants made production decisions that affected river pollution based on incentives or taxes with various limits to communication

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SLIDE 73

REGULATION & TAXATION PUBLIC INFORMATION & TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE GRANTS, SUBSIDIES AND TAX BREAKS GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE / ECO- TECHNOLIGIES MARKET DEVELOPMENT

PLANNING

Incentivize use of emerging eco- technologies for phosphorus capture and reuse from wastewater and stormwater Require smart growth principles and low-impact development practices in planning and design of development and transportation Develop market mechanisms and methods to reclaim phosphorus from farms, runoff, wastewater, and solid wastes Invest in better backroads construction and maintenance Require vegetated buffers in riparian zones and along lakeshores Provide more financial and technical assistance and outreach to promote soil health and associated best practices on farms

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SLIDE 74

What will IAMs do? Assess the Effectiveness of Policy Solutions

  • A crowdsourcing Delphi survey of experts and

civil society stakeholders led to the identification

  • f more than 60+ unique policy and technical

solutions

  • Stakeholder driven policy solution scenarios can

be run on the IAMs to assess the P, N and HAB reduction effectiveness, given different climate change scenarios and land-use scenarios

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SLIDE 75

Meeting milestone for “Q3”:

  • Convene mediated modeling sessions regarding

climate change, land use storylines, coupled human system drivers, policy and governance drivers

– First mediated modeling session held: November 2012 – Second mediated modeling held: May 2014

  • Develop conceptual models of watershed

governance, parameterize watershed governance ABM, calibrate and validate governance ABMs

– Progress made highlighted here