Social, Policy and Governance Modeling: Current Status Report - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Social, Policy and Governance Modeling: Current Status Report Christopher Koliba, Ph.D. Science Leader, Research on Adaptation to Climate Change (RACC) Professor of Public Administration, Policy & Governance University of Vermont

In the face of uncertainties about climate change, land use and lake response scenarios, how can adaptive management interventions (e.g. regulation, incentives, treaties) be designed , valued and implemented in the multi-jurisdictional Lake Champlain Basin? EPS 1101317

Social and Policy Modeling Group: Who we are… Richard Kujawa Professor, St. Michael's College Stephanie Hurley Asim Zia Assistant Professor Chris Koliba Associate Professor, University of Vermont Team Lead, Professor University of Vermont University of Vermont Sarah Coleman Ph.D. Student Steven Exler IT Specialist Scott Merrill Yushiou Tsai Research Assistant Professor Post Doc University of Vermont Steve Scheinert Scott Tunrbull Post Doc Software Developer Clare Ginger Associate Professor University of Vermont

Topics Covered • Adaptive management activities (dispersed throughout) – Public opinion / willingness to pay – Economic costs of clean water – Delphi Forum and Mediated Modeling Workshops • Governance network analysis – Funding and regulatory patterns and planning regimes – Network analysis – Agent-based models • Land use and best management practice adoption models – Land use transitions – economic well being and zoning • Scenario generation leading to Integrated Assessment models

Governance Network Analysis Research & Modeling Methods Research methods Computer simulation employed: models and • Surveys experiments: • Multiple regression analysis • Agent Based Models • Interviews • Network Analysis • Focus groups • Source documents analysis • Experimental Economics • Delphi method • Mediated modeling workshops • Comprehensive case study

Significant advances being made by the Q3 team in the past year: • • New insights into: Novel applications of agent based modeling to landuse transition (Tsai, et al. – Farmer adoption of BMPs (Zia, 2014) under review), best management practice – Farmer land use transitions decision- adoption (Zia et al., 2013) and governance making (Tsai et al., under review) arrangements (Scheinert et al., accepted – Willingness of citizens to pay for clean for presentation). water (Zia, 2014; Koliba et al., 2013) • Establishment of the Socio-Ecological – Comparison of nutrient flow reduction Gaming and Simulation(SEGS) Laboratory policies in the 2010 TDML implementation in Jeffords Hall. plan and the 2010 Opportunities for • Advances in institutional network Action (Koliba et al, accepted for analysis (modeling task structures and publication; Scheinert et al., 2014) subnetworks by functionality (Koliba et al, – Alignment of water quality plans with accepted for publication; Reynolds et al., actual policy implementation (Scheinert et under review)). al., 2014) • Development of usable social science – How stakeholders perceive the range of results for regional policy makers (Zia et possible climate change impacts for the al., 2014; Koliba et al., 2013). region and unique ways to visualize them • Creation of a web-based crowdsoursing (Scheinert at al., ND) platform to surface adaptive intervention, – Stakeholder ideas and expert opinions evaluation criteria (Coleman et al., 2014) regarding what kinds of short, • Ongoing and deep integration with intermediate and long term interventions hydrologists, environmental engineers, are possible (Coleman et al., 2014) geologists, computer scientists, software – Novel uses of crowdsourcing to garner developers through IAM integration . stakeholder input (Coleman et al., 2014)

Recent Q3-related publications and presentations Publications • Koliba, C., Reynolds, A., Zia, A., and Scheinert, S. (accepted for publication). Isomorphic Properties of Network Governance: Comparing Two Watershed Governance Initiatives in the Lake Champlain Basin Using Institutional Network Analysis. Complexity, Governance and Networks. 1(2). • Koliba, C., Zia, A., Scheinert, S. and Logan, K. (2014). Research on Adaptation to Climate Change: 2013 Water Quality Survey. VT EPSCoR. Burlington, VT. Publication under review: • Tsai, Y., Zia, A., Koliba, C., Bucini, G., Guilbert, J., and Beckage, B. (ND). An Interactive Land Use Transition Agent-Based Model (ILUTABM): Endogenizing Human- Environment Interactions at Watershed Scales. Land Use Policy . Publications nearing submission: • Reynolds, A., Koliba, C., Zia, A., Scheinert, S. (ND). Institutional Network Analysis as a Tool for Research and Practice: Understanding Network Structures and Strategies from Text Data Mining Presentations: • Ziia, A. (2014) Adaptive Governance of Alternate Stable States in Social Ecological Systems: Simulating the Impacts of Alternative Policy Mixes on Farmer Behaviors. International Conference on Policy Mixes in Environmental and Conservation Policies , Leipzig, Germany (Feb 25-27, 2014) • Coleman, S., Hurley, S., Koliba, C., Zia, A., Exler, S. and Hoogenboom, A. (2014). An Interactive Stakeholder Forum: Finding Interventions for Water Quality & Climate Change Adaptation in Lake Champlain Basin. Universities Council on Water Resources. Annual Conference. Medford MA. : • Scheinert, S., Koliba, C., and Zia, A. (2014). The Shape of Watershed Governance: Watershed Governance Implementation Networks in the Winooski and Missisquoi Watersheds. American Public Policy and Management Annual Conference. Albuquerque, NM. • Koliba, C. (2014). Accounting for Human Behavior and Decision Making in modeling Watershed and Basin Wide Dynamics. 2014 New England Association of Environmental Biologists (NEAEB). Burlington, VT. • Zia, A. (2014) “Integrated Assessment Modeling” of Coupled Natural and Human Systems in LCB. Vermont Environment Consortium. Vergennes, VT. • Koliba, C., Zia, A. and Scheinert, S. (2014). Individuals, Action Arenas and Intuitions: Watershed Management and the Pivot of Governance Networks. !0 th Annual TransAtlantic Dialogue. Lugano, Switzerland.

Adaptive management Adaptive management is a systematic process for improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of management strategies that have already been implemented. Adaptive water management aims to increase the adaptive capacity of the water system by putting in place both learning processes and the conditions needed for learning processes to take place. (Geldof 1995, Pahl-Wostl 2004, 2007)

Public opinion research

Source: Koliba et al. 2013 Vermont Water Quality Survey. University of Vermont

Water quality appears to be important to the Vermonters Source: Koliba et al. 2013 Vermont Water Quality Survey. University of Vermont

And that they feel that it fall mostly to the State, Individuals and the the Federal government to ensure water quality.. Source: Koliba et al. 2013 Vermont Water Quality Survey. University of Vermont

1 st Mediated Modeling Workshop Source: Vermont EPSCoR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP November 12, 2012

Areas of possible impact: AGRICULTURE RIVER MANAG. STORMWATER FOREST MANG. TRANSPORT. WASTEWATER DEVELOPMENT ENERGY EMERG. MANG. PUBLIC HEALTH

Results of Climate Change Impact Assessment Workshop (Scheinert et al., ND)

Sub-Network: The multi-faceted dimension of climate change on lake hydrology What impacts might this have on our region?

Governance network analysis and modeling Env.� Canada� Na onal� EPA� NRCS� Basin-wide� LCBP� VT� VTrans� NY� State/Provincial� ANR� QB� AG� Regiona l� Regional� Planning� Commissions� Conserva on� districts,� Watershed� alliances,� etc.� Local� Local� governments� Households� Indiv.� Farm� /� HH� Farms� Landscape� Who are the central watershed management actors in the region and how do they work together?

(Planned) Agriculture Technical Assistance Network in Missisquoi in the 2014 TMDL (Actual) Agriculture Technical Assistance Network operating in Missisquoi watershed (surveyed, preliminary) (Scheinert et al., ND)

Source: Koliba, C., Reynolds, A., Zia, A., and Scheinert, S. (accepted for publication). Isomorphic Properties of Network Governance: Comparing Two Watershed Governance Initiatives in the Lake Champlain Basin Using Institutional Network Analysis. Complexity, Governance and Networks. 1(2). • H1: The planned network designed by the TMDL regulatory network will exhibit more centralized and denser network properties than those designed by the LCBP partnership network. • H2: Planned networks designed by the TMDL network will recommend a t a higher percentage of regulatory tools than the LCBP network.

Graphing task structures Source: Koliba, C., Reynolds, A., Zia, A., and Scheinert, S. (accepted for publication). Isomorphic Properties of Network Governance: Comparing Two Watershed Governance Initiatives in the Lake Champlain Basin Using Institutional Network Analysis. Complexity, Governance and Networks. 1(2).

H1: Affirmed H2: Rejected Source: Koliba, C., Reynolds, A., Zia, A., and Scheinert, S. (accepted for publication). Isomorphic Properties of Network Governance: Comparing Two Watershed Governance Initiatives in the Lake Champlain Basin Using Institutional Network Analysis. Complexity, Governance and Networks. 1(2).