Smart Energy now its personal Pilgrim Beart MIET 19 th January 2012 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Smart Energy now its personal Pilgrim Beart MIET 19 th January 2012 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Smart Energy now its personal Pilgrim Beart MIET 19 th January 2012 pilgrim@beart.org.uk pilgrimbeart Who am I Computer Engineer Serial Entrepreneur Founded AlertMe Platform for the Smart Home Focussed on Home Energy

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Smart Energy – now it’s personal

Pilgrim Beart MIET 19th January 2012

pilgrimbeart pilgrim@beart.org.uk

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Who am I

  • Computer Engineer
  • Serial Entrepreneur
  • Founded AlertMe

– Platform for the Smart Home – Focussed on Home Energy Management

  • Tonight: How home energy is changing
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Tonight

1 2 3

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The national energy balance

Supplies Demands

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UK Energy

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National energy

  • “Sustainable” simply means “things you can keep doing”:

– Finite Source: 2bn years’ fossil fuel used in hundreds of years – Finite Destination too: CO2

  • We take energy supplies for granted

– Reliable, Affordable – A tribute to 20th-century engineers

  • Exciting things happening on supply side

– Wind, Nuclear, and one day Fusion

  • …but need much more change, faster

– 2010 emissions flat, not falling (despite recession) – Deeper cuts needed to meet carbon budgets:¶

  • 34% reduction by 2020
  • 80% reduction by 2050 (vs. 1990 levels)
  • Can do more

– By addressing the demand side – At low cost (even at negative cost)

¶ According to the independent Committee on Climate Change, in their 3rd Progress Report to Parliament - 30 June 2011

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Source: House of Commons Library

IMPORT EXPORT

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UK consumes ~200GW 30% in homes

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Electricity supply becoming variable

and undispatchable

Source: Pöyry

Wind is variable on many different timescales

Source: van der Hoven

Result: No longer can Supply just follow Demand Demand must start to adapt to Supply

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Home Comforts today

How much energy do we use? Where does it come from? Where does it go to?

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Average UK home consumes 2.7kW

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Today: Energy source and CO2

UK annual average Source: USWITCH JUNE 2008

Electric 0.38 Gas 2.34 Energy Source (kW average)

UK grid 500gCO2/kWhe Natural Gas 200gCO2/kWh

Electric 1650 Gas 4100 Emissions (kgCO2)

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Today: Annual energy cost: £1,036

Typical UK home 2011 Source: AlertMe ADELE tool, based on UK govt stats

Lighting Space Heating Hot Water (inc. shower) Cooker Appliances

Gas bill £508 Elec bill £528

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Today: Electricity use by appliance

Source: DECC

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

ktoe

COOKING WET COLD LIGHT CONSUMER ELECTRONICS HOME COMPUTING

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Today: UK Heating

  • 10m homes have neither modern controls nor

thermostatic radiator valves1

  • 47% can’t program their controls2
  • Interaction:

– If cold, increase thermostat/timings until not cold – No visibility into cost consequences – So nothing driving you to turn it down again

Sources: 1 BERR Heat and Energy consultation 2008 2 YouGov research of 2,085 people in GB conducted on behalf of PassivSystems, April 2010

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UK home average temperature

Source: BRE domestic energy fact file 2008

… but we haven’t increased our thermostats from 12°C to 18°C! We’re heating more rooms, for longer.

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Today: Daily domestic profile

UK 2011

Solar PV generation (summer)

Sources: EA Technology EU PV GIS

Heat demand (winter) Electrical Load 00:00 08:00 16:00 00:00

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Today: Home energy visibility

Q: How much am I using? Q: Where is it going? Q: What can I do to reduce it?

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Recap: Home Energy Today

  • Consumption: Invisible!
  • Controls:

Incomprehensible!

  • Electricity: Big increase in Gadget consumption
  • Gas: Big increase in Average heating temperature
  • Energy prices rising (unsteadily)

– Increasing pressure to act

  • So… what?
  • First: insulate
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Coming to a home near you

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Coming to a home near you

  • New energy technologies:

– for Electricity & Heat – Creating and Managing them – How we’ll interact with them

  • Negawatts
  • Consumer Gateway
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Electricity from Solar Photo-Voltaic (PV)

  • As Subsidy falls

…. and Grid prices rise

(therefore less relevant) (therefore more painful to import electricity)

…it increasingly pays to use your own electricity 21p

per unit generated (from Dec 2011)

13p (and rising)

per unit imported

3p

per unit exported

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Heat: capture & pump

  • Capture with Solar Thermal

– Engineers care about efficiency – Consumers care about up-front cost!

  • Heat Pump

– Theoretical COP of 4+ – UK trial results not nearly so good:

Source: Energy Saving Trust

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Thermal stores

Drake Landing Solar Community, Alberta

Daily Annual

Credit: Natural Resources Canada

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microCHP

  • Generating electricity creates “waste” heat

– Do it at home and it’s no-longer waste

  • Combined Heat & Power for the home
  • Natural Gas  Electricity + Heat

Stirling Engine Fuel cell

Baxi ecoGen

e.g.

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Intelligent Heating

User instructions Step 1: Ignore it Step 2: Press one of 3 buttons (exceptionally)

More Hot Water Less Heat More Heat

Image: WattBox

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Intelligent Heating

  • Occupancy
  • Physiology
  • Psychology

N I G H T L U N C H E V E N I N G G E T U P

N I G H T

SAVINGS

Nest thermostat by Tony Fadell iPod music player by Tony Fadell

improves all three

Modern programmable thermostat (fixed time & temp pattern) Intelligent Heating learns and reacts to occupancy and occupants’ physiological and psychological needs

5°C 10°C 15°C 20°C Time of Day

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NegaWatts

“The cheapest Watt is the one you don’t have to generate in the first place” (Amory Lovins)

Supplies Demands

Onshore wind generation Cost: €50/MWh generated

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Research Note “Closing the gap: grid parity for onshore wind” 2011 Global average levelised cost.

Intelligent Heating Cost: €8/MWh saved

Assumptions: 10% household energy saved over 10 year lifetime. i.e. saves 1 year which is 23MWh. Costs €200 to fit.

Watts NegaWatts

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Energy Efficiency Feed-in Tariff?

  • “Savings Aggregator” paid to get us to save

– Works on large groups – Might be utility, community, company etc.

  • SA free to use whatever means they like:

– Giving advice – Installing hardware – Rewards, competitions….

  • Rapid and cheap to deploy
  • Consumers have a rational incentive anyway

– (lower bills) – But we aren’t rational, so we don’t!

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Co-ordinating it all

  • Imagine a scenario: Bob’s day.

– Smart Meter (with Time of Use tariff) – Solar PV generation on his roof – Washing-machine has a load ready to wash – When should wash start? Who decides?

  • Early visions of Smart Grid were Soviet-style

– Demand Response: pulling a big lever centrally – But Utilities don’t want to manage consumer appliances – And Consumers don’t want that either

  • Smart Grid may emerge bottom-up

– LCNF & TSB trials exploring feasibilities – Price-driven? Define a set of policies for your home, e.g.

  • Wash my clothes for no more than £0.20/wash
  • Ensure my EV is charged by 8:00am every morning
  • Challenge will be to make all this truly “plug and play”
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How will consumer react to all this?

  • We are an integral “component” of the system
  • Bakersfield CA, Victoria Australia, Netherlands

– SM rollout issues: Unhappy with privacy/pricing

  • What do we need to do to shift

consumption?

– Engineering + Policy

  • Behavioural Psychology

– Are we individuals or social? – Habits are hard to break

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Behavioural Change

Source: BEN Energy AG

Savings Target Actual Savings?

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UK Smart Meter rollout

  • Cost £10bn, Benefit: £15bn (?)
  • 5m installs/year = 19,000 per working day!

Source: Impact study, DECC 2011

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UK Smart Meter architecture

Smart Electricity Meter Smart Gas Meter In Home Display (IHD) Comms Hub

DCC

Drives sustained savings of 8%*

*2011 Empower Demand study by VaasaETT

Consumer Gateway

  • Appliances
  • Services
  • Internet
  • Future stuff!

…

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The Consumer Gateway

Source: http://www.onlinemarketing-trends.com/2011/03/mobile-to-overtake-desktop-in-eu-by.html

  • Co-ordinates the home
  • Puts Home Energy Management

where your attention already is, i.e. Online

  • Opens the door to future energy

services

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Top Tip

Gateway enables Data Analytics

Top Tip Top Tip £31.95

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Summary

  • Sustainability isn’t optional

– In a Finite world, we’re living beyond our means

  • Need to (and can):

– Reduce demand. NegaWatts can be cheaper & faster. – Adapt demand to supply

  • 2020’s lifestyle with 1970’s consumption
  • Efficiency is addictive

– As a consumer

  • “What’s good for me is good for everyone else too”

– As an engineer

  • Beyond just Efficiency to Parsimony
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Engineering is about people

  • Consumers’ choices determine success/failure

– Put consumers at the centre of our thinking – Simplicity is vital

  • Explain to consumers

– And learn from them

  • Ensure they really benefit

– Design, implement, measure – repeat

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References

Three must-read books:

  • Sustainable Energy – without the Hot Air by David MacKay http://www.withouthotair.com/
  • Sustainable Materials – with both eyes open by Julian Allwood et al http://www.uit.co.uk/sustainable-materials
  • How Bad are Bananas by Mike Berners Lee http://howbadarebananas.posterous.com/

Other references:

  • Deeper cuts needed: Third progress report 2011 by Committee on Climate Change http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/3rd-progress-report
  • Energy Imports and Exports, House of Commons Library http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN04046.pdf
  • Energy Flow Chart 2010 by DECC http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/publications/flow/flow.aspx
  • Impact of Intermittency - How Wind Variability could change the shape of the British and Irish electricity markets, July 2009 by Pöyry Energy Consulting

http://www.poyry.com/linked/group/study

  • Home temperature rise BRE domestic fact file 2008 http://www.bre.co.uk/filelibrary/pdf/rpts/Fact_File_2008.pdf
  • Home temperature rise (a contrasting view) http://www.esrc.ac.uk/_images/Shipworth_26_Jan_09_tcm8-2390.pdf
  • Framework for evaluation of Smart Grids, consultation document for Ofgem by Frontier Economics and EA Technology

http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Networks/SGF/Documents1/RPT-STC-%20SGCBA%20final1%20-181111.pdf

  • Photovoltaic Geographical Information System daily output for a 2.8kW system located around Leeds, UK, available at European Commission PV GIS

http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/

  • 47% of consumers do not know how to program their Heating systems http://www.passivsystems.com/productPdfs/HomesOnly/Field_Trial.pdf
  • 10m homes do not have modern boiler controls or TRVs http://hes.decc.gov.uk/consultation/download/index-5469.pdf
  • Getting Warmer, a field trial of heat pumps, by the Energy Saving Trust http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/Publications2/Generate-your-own-

energy/Getting-warmer-a-field-trial-of-heat-pumps

  • Electricity use by appliance http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/Statistics/publications/ecuk/269-ecuk-domestic-2010.xls
  • Rise in consumer electronics energy consumption: London-Loughborough Centre for Doctoral Research in Energy Demand

http://www.lolo.ac.uk/project/view/project/54

  • EE FiT: Decarbonisation on the Cheap, Dustin Benton, Green Alliance http://www.green-

alliance.org.uk/uploadedFiles/Publications/reports/Decarbonisation_on_the_cheap_dble.pdf

  • IHD’s drive 8% savings, Empower Demand by VaasaETT http://www.esmig.eu/press/filestor/empower-demand-report.pdf
  • UK Smart Meter Impact Study, DECC 2011 http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/Consultations/smart-meter-imp-prospectus/1485-impact-assessment-

smart-metering-implementation-p.pdf

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Smart Energy – now it’s personal

Pilgrim Beart MIET 19th January 2012

pilgrimbeart pilgrim@beart.org.uk