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Apr 05, 2023 236 likes •331 views

Small steps forward How to change the dominant trends of the Hungarian energy sector to increase the share of RES in the energy mix? Balzs Felsmann Corvinus University of Budapest Head of the Research Centre of Strategic and International

SLIDE 1

Small steps forward

How to change the dominant trends of the Hungarian energy sector to increase the share of RES in the energy mix?

Balázs Felsmann Corvinus University of Budapest Head of the Research Centre of Strategic and International Management balazs.felsmann@uni-corvinus.hu

EWEA Workshop Budapest, 01 October 2013.

SLIDE 2

New governments: new strategies Permanent elements:

significant increase on

demand side

Relative low share of

renewables Differences:

2008 RES programme:

subsidization sheme focused on electricity;

2011RES focus on

heating

2008 2011

Estimations for the future in the official Hungarian energy policies…

SLIDE 3

950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Fact

BAU Trendline Joint effort Green future

… and the current trends (data in Petajoul)

SLIDE 4

Limited focus on renewable electricity production until 2030

Preferred scenario:

nucs+coal+RES in electricity production

Highest target on

nucs.

Only 16-20% on RES

basis of total electricity production in 2030.

32% RES share (from

the current 12%) in household heating.

Renewables District heating Others Natural gas

Renewables Nuclear Coal Natural gas Import

SLIDE 5

The far future seems more ambitious…

SLIDE 6

Comparison of the current German facts with our 2030 plans

2200 2456 4975 7661

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

Planned in NES Same ratio of GDP Same ratio of energy production Same ratio of population

Estimation of the renewable capacity of Hungary in 2030 compared the German facts in 2012 (MW)

12048 66967 62741

GER 2012 total capacity (MW)

Nuclear Fossils RES (incl. hydro) 4000 5300 2200

HUN 2030 planned total capacity (MW)

Nuclear Fossils RES (incl. hydro)

… are these real ambitions?

SLIDE 7

1. Lobby for new tenders on the current subsidy scheme (FiT)
Low probability of success against of the price cutting policy
2. Implementation of new framework for RES (Market premium,

quotas)

Same problems like in case of maintaining the FiT (low level

support from government side)

3. Lobby for direct EU grants to subsidize the new RES investment
Possible? - questions of economic sustainability (cases of Spain,

CZ, SK, RO)

Great competition of the different lobbies for the available

funds

Transparency issues
Long term market disturbances
4. Focusing on small scale investments (household level, „island”
peration)