Slated for the longest expansion on record Duration of United States - - PDF document

10 Recession Watch Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019

Slated for the longest expansion on record

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Bureau of Economic Research and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

Duration of United States economic expansions Lengh of expansion and average annual job growth

113 months (1.5%) 73 months (0.9%) 120 months (2.0%) 92 months (2.8%) 58 months (3.5%) 36 months (3.4%) 106 months (3.2%) 24 months (3.6%) 39 months (2.5%) 45 months (4.3%) 37 months (5.1%) July 2009 November 2001 March 1991 December 1982 March 1975 November 1970 February 1961 April 1958 May 1954 October 1949 October 1945 Expansion Start

16 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019

Holding on to #1 for job growth in current expansion

TX 1.49 CA 1.46 MT 0.70 NM 0.23 AZ 1.15 NV 1.14 CO 1.32 WY 0.51 OR 1.03 UT 1.57 MN 0.72 ID 1.07 KS 0.53 NE 0.65 SD 0.70 ND 1.21 OK 0.53 MO 0.53 WA 1.26 GA 1.23 IL 0.64 IA 0.45 WI 0.55 AR 0.65 AL 0.66 NC 1.15 MS 0.67 NY 1.01 LA 0.58 PA 0.65 MI 0.69 OH 0.60 KY 0.69 VA 0.84 IN 0.68 ME 0.41 SC 1.27 FL 1.44 TN 1.02 WV 0.00 AK 0.34 HI 0.91

< 0.50 0.50 - 0.79 0.80 - 0.99 1.00 - 1.29 1.30 +

DE 0.93 RI 0.71 VT 0.54 NH 0.65 MA 1.16 NJ 0.75 MD 0.83 CT 0.50

Note: Ratio of actual employment growth to the employment growth the state would have experienced if its industries grew at the same rate as those of the rest of the nation. Numbers above 1 indicate outperforming the nation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Industry-adjusted state-to-U.S. employment growth ratios

Growth since end of recession, 2009-2017

18 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019

Strength in diversity

Hachman Index of Economic Diversity, 2017

Note: Value of 100 would mean that state’s economic activity is distributed exactly like the nation’s; more diverse economies have a higher index score. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP data

TX 76.3 CA 93.1 MT 80.1 NM 62.5 AZ 95.7 NV 64.7 CO 93.6 WY 25.1 OR 89.1 FL 92.0 UT 96.9 MN 94.6 ID 79.2 KS 90.3 NE 69.5 SD 65.2 ND 51.1 OK 57.7 MO 96.8 WA 87.7 IN 76.0 GA 95.2 IL 95.6 IA 74.8 WI 92.3 AR 88.6 AL 91.1 NC 92.5 MS 86.8 NY 79.9 LA 85.6 PA 95.5 MI 92.2 OH 93.9 KY 90.4 VA 89.1 ME 91.1 SC 90.9 TN 91.9 WV 54.2 AK 31.9 HI 71.8

< 65.0 65.0 - 79.9 80.0 - 89.9 90.0 - 94.9 95.0 +

DE 53.5 RI 87.3 VT 90.9 NH 95.0 MA 90.0 NJ 93.4 MD 87.4 CT 91.9

D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S

Utah Economy 21

Construction employment back to pre-bubble levels

Construction jobs as a percent of all Utah jobs

Note: e = estimate Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey data

8.3% 5.4% 6.8%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 20-year average = 6.5%

D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S

Utah Economy 27

23.0 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.6 24.0 24.6 24.8 25.2 Jordan Box Elder Nebo Juab Uintah Cache Davis Alpine Morgan Provo Districts with highest ratios 10.2 10.2 12.4 13.9 14.2 15.9 15.9 16.6 17.2 17.6 Daggett Piute Tintic Wayne Rich Garfield Grand Park City San Juan Kane Districts with lowest ratios

Utah public elementary and secondary school pupil-teacher ratios, FY 2017

Utah average = 21.8

Note: District average = 19.8; Charter school average = 22.1 Source: Utah State Board of Education

Provo has the highest student to teacher ratio in the state

QAMO

A W A R D W I N N E R

Why student-teacher ratios matter

Higher amounts of engagement and retention More individualized attention Accommodation of difgerent learning styles Submitted by David Eccles School of Business QAMO (Quantitative Analysis of Markets & Organiztions) students Jessie Rabe and Jonathan White. Jessie Rabe Jonathan White

32 Economic Development Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019

Look at us grow!

Source: Kaufgman Foundation 2017 Kaufgman Index of Growth Entrepreneurship State Trends

TX 82.8 CA 88.9 MT 26.2 NM 16.2 NV 45.3 CO 96.9 WY 12.9 OR 70.0 AZ 101.6 MN 73.7 ID 38.3 KS 61.9 NE 42.6 SD 42.0 ND 39.9 OK 30.7 MO 47.4 WA 87.9 UT 174.8 IL 76.6 IA 32.7 WI 39.9 AR 17.9 AL 66.0 NC 69.9 MS 19.7 NY 67.1 LA 40.9 GA 124.5 PA 64.2 MI 57.3 OH 85.1 IN 55.1 SC 67.7 TN 71.2 KY 30.8 ME 28.7 VA 208.3 WV 31.7 AK 7.3 HI 26.8 FL 77.0

< 50.0 50.0 - 74.9 75.0 - 99.9 100.0 +

DE 76.2 RI 19.2 VT 12.6 NH 67.2 MA 100.0 NJ 73.4 MD 102.8 CT 37.9

High-growth company density

Number of private businesses with at least $2 million in annual revenue reaching three years of 20 percent annual revenue growth, normalized by total business population

38 Public Finance Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019

Utah’s narrowing sales tax base

Utah sales tax base as a percent of personal income

Note: 2018 and beyond are forecasted. Source: Utah Governor’s Offjce of Management and Budget and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

67% 42% 35%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

48 Energy and Environment Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019

Top 20 for energy industry jobs

Energy industry employment as a percent of total employment, 2017

Source: U.S. Department of Energy

TX 6.62% CA 4.43% MT 5.22% ID CO 4.79% OR 3.85% WY 14.38% NM 5.56% KS 4.81% AZ NV NE SD MN ND 8.86% WA UT 4.22% GA IA FL AR AL 4.19% OK 6.57% MO KY MS TN LA 6.92% IL WI VA IN NC SC 3.88% NY PA MI 4.23% OH ME WV 6.32% AK 6.74% HI 14.5% 3.5% DC DE 4.19% RI VT 5.56% NH MA 4.31% NJ MD CT

D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S

Energy and Environment 49

Energy is one of our state’s many exports

Utah energy production and consumption

Gigawatt hours

Note: e = estimate Source: Utah Geological Survey

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 1 9 8 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 4 2 1 6 2 1 8 e Net generation Consumption

52 Health Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019

Utah 4th healthiest in the nation

Health ranking

Source: United Health Foundation 2017 America’s Health Rankings Annual Report

TX 34 CA 17 MT 22 NM 36 AZ 31 NV 37 CO 7 WY 26 OR 20 UT 4 MN 6 ID 14 KS 25 NE 13 SD 24 ND 18 OK 43 MO 40 WA 9 GA 41 IL 27 IA 15 WI 21 AR 48 AL 47 NC 33 MS 50 NY 10 LA 49 PA 28 MI 35 OH 39 IN 38 SC 44 FL 32 TN 45 KY 42 VA 19 ME 23 WV 46 AK 29 HI 2

41-50 31-40 21-30 11-20 1-10

DE 30 RI 11 VT 3 NH 8 MA 1 NJ 12 MD 16 CT 5

D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S

Health 53

Another way to look at quality of life

Life expectancy at birth by Utah small area, 2012–2016

Note: Life expectancy can be used to gauge the overall health of a community. Source: Utah Department of Health, Center for Health Data and Informatics Summit County 81.5 Logan 81.8 Tooele County 77.8 San Juan County 79.1 Juab, Millard & Sanpete Counties 79.1 Grand County 79.2 Sevier, Piute & Wayne Counties 77.8 Beaver, Garfield, Kane & Iron Counties (except Cedar City) 77.3 Daggett, Duchesne & Uintah Counties 77.5 Box Elder County (except Brigham City) - 80.5 Cedar City 78.5 Rich & Cache Counties (except Logan) - 80.7 Washington County (except St George) - 81.0 St George 81.4 Brigham City 75.4 73.2 to 76.0 (Shortest Life) 76.8 to 78.6 79.1 to 81.2 81.3 to 84.5 (Longest Life) County Boundary Red Bottom 4 areas with the shortest life expectancy GreenTop 4 areas with the longest life expectancy Carbon & Emery Counties 74.7 Farmington/ Avenues SLC - Glendale 84.1 Ogden - Downtown Centerville Foothill/ 84.5 South Salt Lake 73.2 74.4 74.8 83.1 Provo- North/ BYU 82.7 UofU

N

D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S

Real Estate and Construction 61

Retail dives, apartments soar

Wasatch Front commerical real estate under construction by property type

Percent of total stock

Note: 2018 as of the third quarter. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Insitute analysis of CoStar Group Inc. data

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Apartment Office Industrial Retail

58 Real Estate and Construction Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019

Utah leads single-family housing recovery

States with most growth in detached single-family home permits

Since pre-recession peak in 2005

Note: Most recent data is for 2017. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

34% 35% 37% 40% 44% 44% 49% 56% 57% 61% 68% 72% Nevada Arizona California Florida Georgia Oregon US Washington Idaho Colorado Texas Utah

D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S

Real Estate and Construction 63

Utah mortgage debt among highest in nation

Mortgage debt balance per capita, 2017

States with highest and lowest rankings

Note: Population is ages 18 years and older with an Equifax credit file; District of Columbia mortgage debt per capita = $62,080. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York State Level Household Debt Statistics 2003-2017

Top Ten Bottom Ten $41,790 $41,580 $41,830 $45,760 $47,110 $47,370 $50,900 $50,900 $54,640 $54,680 CT AK UT MA WA VA CO MD CA HI $15,230 $15,240 $18,200 $19,830 $20,010 $20,820 $21,000 $21,500 $22,810 $23,130 MS WV AR OK KY LA AL OH IN MI

66 Travel and Tourism Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019

Travel and tourism drives over a third

• f all jobs in six counties

Private leisure and hospitality sector jobs in Utah’s counties, 2017

Percent of total private employment and top ten for job growth

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah Department of Workforce Services data

Growth in Private Leisure and Hospitality Employment, Top Ten Counties, 2013-2017

San Juan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.7% Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6% Iron . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.0% Grand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.1% Wasatch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.7% Box Elder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.4% Sanpete . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.3% Millard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1% Juab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7% Davis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.8%

70 Travel and Tourism Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019

Taking advantage of the greatest snow on earth

Utah skier/snowboarder place of origin and stats

Source: RRC Associates

Average age: 40.3 years Length

• f stay:

5.8 nights Stay in commercial lodging: 67% Average lodging rate: $431/night First time visit to Utah: 33%

New York 4% Florida 4% Texas 5% International 7% California 10% All other states 33% Utah 37%

74 Utah Demographics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019

More new Utahns arriving from Asia than any other region

Utah’s foreign born population

Recent arrivals by region of birth

Note: 1990-2000 entrance from 2000 Census, through March 2000; 2000 and later entrance from 2007-2011 5-Year American Community Survey Estimates; 2010 and later entrance from 2012-2016 5-Year American Community Survey Estimates. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census and American Community Survey 2011 and 2016 5-Year Estimates

16.5% 20.2% 44.5% 64.9% 62.9% 34.3% 10.9% 7.4% 9.5% 2.0% 4.6% 5.3% 2.9% 2.2% 3.3% 2.7% 2.7% 3.1% Entered 1990-2000 Entered after 2000 Entered after 2010 Asia Latin America Europe Africa Northern America Oceania