SILICON VALLEY 2.0 Climate Adaptation Partners’ Forum 4 MAY 2015 County of Santa Clara Office of Sustainability 1
FORUM AGENDA 9:15 – 10:00 Sign-In, Coffee Social, Welcome 10:00 – 10:20 Keynote: Climate Adaptation for Silicon Valley + SV 2.0 10:20 – 11:20 Silicon Valley 2.0 Project Overview - Methodology + Analysis SV 2.0 Climate Change Preparedness Decision Support Tool - - Economic Consequences - Climate Adaptation Strategies - Next Steps 11:20 – 11:40 Question + Answer Session 11:40 – 11:45 Break-Out Groups Instructions 11:45 – 12:15 Lunch (continues as working lunch into Break-Out) 12:15 – 1:45 Break-Out Groups (themed around SV 2.0’s asset sectors) - Developing frameworks for action - Identifying early collaborations Strategy Prioritization - 1:45 – 2:30 Report Back + Wrap-Up 2
KEYNOTE
MANY THANKS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS TO KEY CONTRIBUTORS + PARTNERS Bay Area Joint Policy Committee (JPC): Bruce Riordan • Bay Area Climate Collaborative (BACC): Rafael Reyes • • Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC): Joe LaClair • City of Cupertino: Erin Cooke • City of Mountain View: Randy Tsuda City of San Jose: Rene Eyerly • Joint Venture Silicon Valley (JVSV): Kara Gross • • Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E): Gina Blus, Sapna Dixit, Kerynn Gianotti, Christopher Benjamin • Santa Clara County Public Health Department (SCCPHD): Dan Peddycord, Susan Stuart Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA): Lani Lee Ho, Christina Jaworski • Santa Clara Valley Water District (SCVWD): Jim Fiedler, Sarah Young, Tracy Hemmeter, • Liang Lee • Sustainable Silicon Valley: Marianna Grossman • U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE): Craig S. Connor • U.S. Geological Survey: Dr. Patrick Barnard 4
WHY NOW? THE 4 FAULTY PRESUMPTIONS OF ADAPTATION • It is too speculative • It is too far away • Event vs. Paradigm • It has no present benefits • Reference Point Reversal • It costs too much • Nexus of Market & Environment • New Definitions of Risk • 3-D Collaborative Implementation • New Levels of Ingenuity and Technology 5
ADAPTATION & RISK DYNAMICS CHANGING WORLD WHERE ENVIRONMENT MEETS MARKET Resilience Event vs. Paradigm • Reference Point Reversal • Nexus of Market & • Environment New Definitions of Risk • 3-D Collaborative • Implementation New Levels of Ingenuity • and Technology 6
Project Goals + Process Economic Consequences Update
WHERE? THE VALLEY OF HEART’S DELIGHT & SILICON DREAMS • Santa Clara County (1.9 million residents as of 2013) is consistently ranked amongst the top regions for growth in employment, personal income, and real taxable sales. • It is the 4 th most ethnically diverse metro area in the U.S. • Median age is 36.7 • Highly desirable place to live and conduct business • Gross domestic product has exceeded $200 billion • Property tax assessment rolls have exceeded $350 billion • The region accounts for more than 75% of all California venture capital investment (and roughly 40% of the national investment) and 12%+ of all patents filed nationally • 29 regional parks covering roughly 48,000 acres • Farmers and ranchers in Santa Clara County grow 100 different crops and contribute $250 million to the local economy each year
WHY? • Climate change presents a complex and uncertain challenge requiring the dedication and action of multiple actors and agencies at all levels • Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations = local climate condition changes: sea level rise + storm surge (36 to 66 inches by end-of- century), increased riverine flooding, and more frequent / higher temperatures (extreme heat events and wildfires) + drought. • Potential impacts to critical assets throughout the county: regionally significant highways and local roadways, water and wastewater treatment plants, electricity substations, technology campuses and other employment centers, homes, vulnerable populations, and ecosystems • Human health consequences negatively impact the economy, external and indoor air quality, productivity, inflate personal costs and budgets • Threatens biological diversity, vigor, and vitality • The interest in retaining corporate citizens and attracting new businesses
SILICON VALLEY 2.0 GOALS WHICH OBJECTIVES AND OUTCOMES • Identify assets threatened by climate change and the magnitude of the potential economic, social, and environmental impacts using a robust vulnerability and risk management framework • Develop the SV 2.0 Climate Change Preparedness Decision Support Tool (Tool) to evaluate the vulnerability and consequence to key assets from potential climate change • Identify potential adaptation strategies to minimize climate impacts • Identify the region’s top priorities and the near -term actions needed to implement an effective regional-scale adaptation response • Facilitate and coordinate regional climate adaptation planning. Coordination, and implementation efforts for Silicon Valley • Create a set of resources capable of being used and replicated statewide 10
WHAT IS IT? WHAT IT IS NOT! SILICON VALLEY 2.0 PLATFORM • A multi-year, multi-stakeholder process and extensive regional effort • Designed and managed by the Santa Clara County Office of Sustainability and funded by the State’s Strategic Growth Council • A Decision-Support Tool designed for flexibility, expansion, replication • A suite of resources to minimize the anticipated impacts of climate change within the County boundary (15 cities + unincorporated portions of the County) • A living Guidebook that provides a recommended set of short, mid, and long term strategies for implementation • Helps establish a proactive framework for collaboration between the County, cities, agencies, stakeholders (State and federal authorities, private landowners, et al) Not designed as a “plan” to be adopted by one or many jurisdictions
RELATIONSHIPS WITH EXISTING PLANNING • Safeguarding California (California Natural Resources Agency) • State Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA) • Regional Multi-Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (ABAG) • Adapting to Rising Tides (BCDC and NOAA) • Bay Area Climate + Energy Resilience Project (JPC) • Bay Area Housing and Community Risk Assessment Project (ABAG + BCDC + EPA) • Climate Readiness Institute (UC Berkeley) • 100 Resilient Cities San Francisco, Oakland, and Berkeley (Pioneered by the Rockefeller Foundation) • Santa Clara County Multiple Jurisdiction Climate Action Planning Project 12
STAKEHOLDER & USER DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, STAKEHOLDER & FOUNDATIONAL EXCHANGE 13
PROJECT OVERVIEW
Methodology + Analysis Economic Consequences Update
PROJECT METHODOLOGY FLOW CHART 16
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY 17
RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY 18
CLIMATE VARIABLE DATA HISTORIC + PROJECTED TRENDS IN SANTA CLARA COUNTY Historical Climate Variable Future (frequency + trend) • Mid-century: 11 – 19 inches Sea Level 0.8 inches/decade ↑ • End-of-Century: 30 – 55 inches Rise • No annual change • Reduced spring and autumn precipitation Riverine Annual • Generally wetter winter precipitation Flooding (trend uncertain) • Increased intensity • Increased frequency of strong storms • Increasing in frequency and duration • Wildfire Multiple/decade ↑ Change in severity unknown • Increasing in frequency, duration + Extreme Multiple/decade ↑ severity Heat 19
COMMUNITY ASSET DATA ASSET SECTORS AND SUB-SECTORS (TYPES) CONSIDERED ASSET SECTOR SUB-ASSET SECTORS (TYPES) • Engineered flood protection (dikes + levees) Shoreline Flood Protection (All) • Non-engineered berms • Wetlands • Serving other assets regionally • Buildings (per parcel) Buildings + Properties • Property (vacant urbanized land, not large-scale open space or agricultural land) • Fiber optics lines Communications • Data centers • Communication towers 20
COMMUNITY ASSET DATA, CONTINUED ASSET SECTORS AND SUB-SECTORS (TYPES) CONSIDERED ASSET SECTOR SUB-ASSET SECTORS (TYPES) • Natural landscapes (includes Ecosystems Coastal wetland (coastal salt marsh marsh) large regional open spaces and Coastal scrub parks) Riparian and riverine Grassland Freshwater wetland Chaparral and scrubland Oak woodland Coniferous forest Redwood forest Hardwood forest Lakes and ponds • Energy generation facilities Energy • Substations • Transmission infrastructure (electrical) 21
COMMUNITY ASSET DATA, CONTINUED ASSET SECTORS AND SUB-SECTORS (TYPES) CONSIDERED ASSET SECTOR SUB-ASSET SECTORS (TYPES) • General populations Public Health • Vulnerable populations (seniors >65, children <5, disadvantaged, those with health conditions) • Healthcare facilities and workers • Solid waste facilities Solid + Hazardous (landfills, recycling facilities, Waste transfer stations, composting) • Contaminated land sites (Superfund, State Response, surface and ground toxicity) • Hazardous waste sites (household and industrial waste storage) 22
COMMUNITY ASSET DATA, CONTINUED ASSET SECTORS AND SUB-SECTORS (TYPES) CONSIDERED ASSET SECTOR SUB-ASSET SECTORS (TYPES) • Roads (highways Transportation and local) • Bridges • Pedestrian ways and bikeways • Airports • Rail (heavy and light) • Water treatment plants Water + Wastewater (potable water) • Wastewater treatment plants • Reservoirs 23
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