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SILICON VALLEY 2.0 Climate Adaptation Partners’ Forum
4 MAY 2015 County of Santa Clara Office of Sustainability
SILICON VALLEY 2.0 Climate Adaptation Partners Forum 4 MAY 2015 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SILICON VALLEY 2.0 Climate Adaptation Partners Forum 4 MAY 2015 County of Santa Clara Office of Sustainability 1 FORUM AGENDA 9:15 10:00 Sign-In, Coffee Social, Welcome 10:00 10:20 Keynote: Climate Adaptation for Silicon Valley + SV 2.0
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SILICON VALLEY 2.0 Climate Adaptation Partners’ Forum
4 MAY 2015 County of Santa Clara Office of Sustainability
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9:15–10:00 Sign-In, Coffee Social, Welcome 10:00–10:20 Keynote: Climate Adaptation for Silicon Valley + SV 2.0 10:20–11:20 Silicon Valley 2.0 Project Overview
11:20–11:40 Question + Answer Session 11:40–11:45 Break-Out Groups Instructions 11:45–12:15 Lunch (continues as working lunch into Break-Out) 12:15–1:45 Break-Out Groups (themed around SV 2.0’s asset sectors)
1:45–2:30 Report Back + Wrap-Up
FORUM AGENDA
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MANY THANKS
Benjamin
Liang Lee
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS TO KEY CONTRIBUTORS + PARTNERS
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WHY NOW?
THE 4 FAULTY PRESUMPTIONS OF ADAPTATION
Environment
Implementation
and Technology
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ADAPTATION & RISK DYNAMICS
CHANGING WORLD WHERE ENVIRONMENT MEETS MARKET Resilience
Environment
Implementation
and Technology
Economic Consequences Update Project Goals + Process
WHERE?
amongst the top regions for growth in employment, personal income, and real taxable sales.
investment (and roughly 40% of the national investment) and 12%+ of all patents filed nationally
contribute $250 million to the local economy each year
THE VALLEY OF HEART’S DELIGHT & SILICON DREAMS
WHY?
dedication and action of multiple actors and agencies at all levels
condition changes: sea level rise + storm surge (36 to 66 inches by end-of- century), increased riverine flooding, and more frequent / higher temperatures (extreme heat events and wildfires) + drought.
significant highways and local roadways, water and wastewater treatment plants, electricity substations, technology campuses and other employment centers, homes, vulnerable populations, and ecosystems
indoor air quality, productivity, inflate personal costs and budgets
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SILICON VALLEY 2.0 GOALS
potential economic, social, and environmental impacts using a robust vulnerability and risk management framework
(Tool) to evaluate the vulnerability and consequence to key assets from potential climate change
implement an effective regional-scale adaptation response
Coordination, and implementation efforts for Silicon Valley
WHICH OBJECTIVES AND OUTCOMES
WHAT IS IT? WHAT IT IS NOT!
and funded by the State’s Strategic Growth Council
within the County boundary (15 cities + unincorporated portions of the County)
long term strategies for implementation
County, cities, agencies, stakeholders (State and federal authorities, private landowners, et al) Not designed as a “plan” to be adopted by one or many jurisdictions
SILICON VALLEY 2.0 PLATFORM
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RELATIONSHIPS WITH EXISTING PLANNING
(ABAG + BCDC + EPA)
(Pioneered by the Rockefeller Foundation)
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STAKEHOLDER & USER DEVELOPMENT
AGENCY, STAKEHOLDER & FOUNDATIONAL EXCHANGE
Economic Consequences Update Methodology + Analysis
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PROJECT METHODOLOGY FLOW CHART
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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
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RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
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CLIMATE VARIABLE DATA
HISTORIC + PROJECTED TRENDS IN SANTA CLARA COUNTY
Climate Variable Historical (frequency + trend) Future
Sea Level Rise 0.8 inches/decade ↑
Riverine Flooding Annual (trend uncertain)
Wildfire Multiple/decade ↑
Extreme Heat Multiple/decade ↑
severity
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ASSET SECTOR SUB-ASSET SECTORS (TYPES)
Shoreline Flood Protection (All)
Buildings + Properties
not large-scale open space or agricultural land) Communications
COMMUNITY ASSET DATA
ASSET SECTORS AND SUB-SECTORS (TYPES) CONSIDERED
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ASSET SECTOR SUB-ASSET SECTORS (TYPES) Ecosystems
large regional open spaces and parks) Coastal wetland (coastal salt marsh marsh) Coastal scrub Riparian and riverine Grassland Freshwater wetland Chaparral and scrubland Oak woodland Coniferous forest Redwood forest Hardwood forest Lakes and ponds Energy
(electrical)
COMMUNITY ASSET DATA, CONTINUED
ASSET SECTORS AND SUB-SECTORS (TYPES) CONSIDERED
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ASSET SECTOR SUB-ASSET SECTORS (TYPES)
Public Health
disadvantaged, those with health conditions)
Solid + Hazardous Waste
(landfills, recycling facilities, transfer stations, composting)
(Superfund, State Response, surface and ground toxicity)
(household and industrial waste storage)
COMMUNITY ASSET DATA, CONTINUED
ASSET SECTORS AND SUB-SECTORS (TYPES) CONSIDERED
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ASSET SECTOR SUB-ASSET SECTORS (TYPES)
Transportation
and local)
and bikeways
and light) Water + Wastewater
(potable water)
treatment plants
COMMUNITY ASSET DATA, CONTINUED
ASSET SECTORS AND SUB-SECTORS (TYPES) CONSIDERED
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PROJECT EXCLUSIONS
Climate Variables:
Assets Sectors:
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SV 2.0 TOOL: VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
(1) Exposure analysis
(2) Sensitivity analysis
functionality) defined from literature reviews, expert interviews, and input from the TAC and other technical experts (3) Adaptive capacity
METHODOLOGY
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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT EXAMPLE
(from Caltrans, 2013)
inundated
MILES OF HIGHWAY BY CLIMATE VARIABLE AND TIMEFRAME
ROADS (HIGHWAYS) SLR SLR + STORM SURGE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS CAUSED BY STORM SURGE RIVERINE FLOODING WILDFIRE EXTREME HEAT Mid-Century Vulnerability 2 3 1 67 65 None End-of-Century Vulnerability 3 6 3 67 65 288
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STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT
TEMPLATE
ASSET CLIMATE VARIABLE STRATEGY TITLE
Strategy Description
SCALE CLASS INITIATION TIMING LEAD CROSS ASSET SECTOR APPLICABILITY POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-TERM CO-BENEFITS IMPLEMENTATION NOTES Timing, Potential Challenges + Solutions, Additional Benefits PRECEDENTS Relevant Case Studies
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STRATEGY SELECTION CRITERIA
Does the strategy…
financing arrangements?
Economic Consequences Update SV 2.0 Climate Change Preparedness Decision Support Tool - Demo
Economic Consequences Update Economic Consequences
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ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
» FRAMEWORK
today’s assets (no adaptive measures have been taken)
» CRITERIA
sources:
METHODOLOGY
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ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
» ANALYTIC LIMITATIONS
sectors and have available data;
services, and higher utility (energy and water) rates;
each other, so this analysis does not fully capture the potential for cascading or cumulative economic impacts;
estimates -- further study required to achieve more comprehensive estimates, including total societal and environmental consequences.
METHODOLOGY
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» RATING SCALE (ACROSS ALL 4 CRITERIA)
be applied across different criteria and jurisdictions.
the 2008–2009 recession as the threshold for an “extreme” economic consequence rating (i.e., 8% of jobs were lost).
Low 0.0% to less than 0.1% Moderate 0.1% to less than 0.3% High 0.3% to less than 1.6% Very High 1.6% to less than 8% Extreme 8% or greater
Ranges of Percent Economic Loss for Ratings
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
METHODOLOGY
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Replacement Costs, Interruption of Economic Activity, and Operational Costs based on estimated Countywide GDP
fiscal revenue based on estimated County and local jurisdiction property and sales tax revenue
Rating Scale for Fiscal Revenue Loss Rating Scale for Replacement Costs, Interruption
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
METHODOLOGY
» RATING SCALE, AS APPLIED COUNTYWIDE
Low $1 to less than $100 million Moderate $100 million to less than $500 million High $500 million to less than $3 billion Very High $3 billion to less than $13 billion Extreme $13 billion
Low $1 to less than $1,000,000 Moderate $1,000,000 to less than $4,000,000 High $4,000,000 to less than $18,000,000 Very High $18,000,000 to less than $90,000,000 Extreme $90,000,000
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Summary of Economic Consequences for Highways by Climate Variable
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
» TRANSPORTATION SECTOR: HIGHWAYS
ASSET EXAMPLE
SEA LEVEL RISE SEA LEVEL RISE + STORM SURGE RIVERINE FLOODING WILDFIRE EXTREME HEAT Replacement Cost Low Low High N/A N/A Loss of Fiscal Revenue N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Change in Operational Costs N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Interruption of Economic Activity High High Very High N/A N/A Overall Economic Consequences High High Very High N/A N/A
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» KEY FINDINGS: TOTAL ASSETS
Aggregate Economic Consequences for All Assets in Mid-Century Scenario
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
SUMMARY
SEA LEVEL RISE SEA LEVEL RISE + STORM SURGE RIVERINE FLOODING WILDFIRE EXTREME HEAT Replacement Cost Very High Very High Extreme Extreme N/A Loss of Fiscal Revenue High High Very High Very High N/A Change in Operational Costs N/A N/A N/A N/A Low Interruption of Economic Activity High Very High Extreme High N/A Overall Economic Consequences Very High Very High Extreme Extreme Low
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SV 2.0 ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OUTPUT FROM THE TOOL
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SV 2.0 ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OUTPUT FROM THE TOOL Rating Scale for Fiscal Revenue Loss Rating Scale for Replacement Costs, Interruption
Low $1 to less than $10,000 Moderate $10,000 to less than $100 million High $100 million to less than $300 million Very High $300 million to less than $1.4 billion Extreme $1.4 billion
Low $1 to less than $40,000 Moderate $40,000 to less than $200,000 High $200,000 to less than $1 million Very High $1 million to less than $5 million Extreme $5 million
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SV 2.0 ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OUTPUT FROM THE TOOL
Economic Consequences Update Climate Adaptation Strategies
Organized by Asset Sector + Climate Variable
Shoreline Flood Protection
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SHORELINE PROTECTION (ALL ASSETS)
» SEA LEVEL RISE, RIVERINE FLOODING
S-1. Continue coordination with South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project S-2. Continue coordination with South San Francisco shoreline study S-3. Conduct an overtopping analysis of existing shoreline protection assets S-5. Increase pump station capacity and provide protection for pump stations S-6. Enhance monitoring and/or maintenance programs for levees and flood walls S-7. Increase the design criteria for current and future flood protection projects from 100-year to higher-impact flood events
» STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING
S-4. Use the updated FEMA FIRMs to identify the source of flooding (e.g., riverine
» RIVERINE FLOODING
S-8. Model projected change in the frequency and magnitude of riverine flooding caused by precipitation in the County
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
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SHORELINE PROTECTION (ALL ASSETS)
S-3. CONDUCT AN OVERTOPPING ANALYSIS OF EXISTING SHORELINE PROTECTION ASSETS
Asset: Shoreline Flood Protection Assets Climate Variable: Sea Level Rise, Riverine Flooding
and agencies with vulnerable assets to assess the location, extent, and timing of
permanent inundation under SLR.
Implementation Timing: Short term Lead: County Potential Challenges:
FOCUS STRATEGY EXAMPLE
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Buildings + Properties
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» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE, AND WILDFIRES
BP-1. Identify a core stakeholder group to facilitate land use planning strategy implementation
» SEA LEVEL RISE, WILDFIRE
BP-2. Identify and consider relocation opportunities for critical facilities BP-3. Provide incentives to divert future development away from high-hazard areas BP-7. Integrate natural stormwater systems within site and building design to expand on- site stormwater management capacity
» SEA LEVEL RISE
BP-4. Partner with corporate campuses to create regional adaptation strategy for Silicon Valley tech companies
» SEA LEVEL RISE AND STORM SURGE
BP-5. Revise applicable building codes to require flood-resistant design
BUILDINGS + PROPERTIES
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
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BUILDINGS + PROPERTIES
BP-1. IDENTIFY A CORE STAKEHOLDER GROUP TO FACILITATE LAND USE PLANNING STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION
Asset: Buildings +Properties Climate Variable: Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, Riverine Flooding, Wildfires
stakeholders to facilitate regional collaboration and implementation of strategies related to land use planning decisions.
in the community and region. Implementation Timing: Short term Lead: Local government (collaborative) Potential Challenges + Solutions:
policies on approaching land development in high-hazard areas.
FOCUS STRATEGY EXAMPLE
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Communications
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Fiber Optic Lines, Data Centers, and Communication Towers:
» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING, WILDFIRES, EXTREME HEAT
C-1. Develop detailed vulnerability assessments for communication infrastructure assets
» RIVERINE FLOODING, WILDFIRE
C-2. Assess assets for criticality and consider adaptation options by weighing their relative costs and benefits C-3. Continue /modify existing efforts to protect infrastructure from riverine flooding and wildfire
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
COMMUNICATIONS
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Ecosystems
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» TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES, WILDFIRE
ES-1. Climate smart planting palettes development and education campaign. ES-2. Maximize retention of local water through climate-smart range management practices. ES-3. Protect biodiversity through multi-county conservation of climate smart wildlife corridors.
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
ECOSYSTEMS
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ECOSYSTEMS
ES-2. MAXIMIZE RETENTION OF LOCAL WATER THROUGH CLIMATE-SMART RANGE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES.
Asset: Grasslands, Scrublands, and Oak Woodlands Climate Variable: Precipitation Change, Temperature Change, Wildfire
policy and the Santa Clara County Parks Parkland Range Management Policy, which call for range management practices to increase water retention.
ecosystems on 62,000 acres of county land. Implementation Timing: Short term Lead: County government (collaborative) Potential Challenges + Solutions:
penetration and retention.
FOCUS STRATEGY EXAMPLE
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Energy
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Energy Generation Facilities, Substations, and Transmission Lines:
» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING, WILDFIRES, EXTREME HEAT
E-1. Develop a detailed vulnerability assessment of energy infrastructure assets E-5. Support the study and development of microgrid infrastructure systems.
» RIVERINE FLOODING, STORM SURGE, SEA LEVEL RISE
E-2. Assess assets for criticality and consider adaptation options by weighing their relative costs and benefits E-3. Continue / modify existing efforts to protect infrastructure from riverine flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge
Substations and Transmission Lines:
» WILDFIRE
E-4. Continue/modify existing efforts to protect infrastructure from wildfires
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
ENERGY
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ENERGY
E-5. SUPPORT THE STUDY AND DEVELOPMENT OF MICROGRID INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS.
Asset: Energy Generation Facilities, Substations, and Transmission Infrastructure Climate Variable: Riverine Flooding, Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, Wildfire, Extreme Heat
enhanced power quality, reliability, and resilience for buildings/facilities both during grid outages and under normal conditions. Implementation Timing: Mid term Lead: County government, City governments, Utilities Potential Challenges + Solutions:
agencies.
FOCUS STRATEGY EXAMPLE
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Public Health
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» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING, WILDFIRES, EXTREME HEAT
General + Vulnerable Populations 3PH-1. Continue to identify populations vulnerable to climate change and develop adaptation strategies and prioritize resources in the most highly-impacted areas. 3PH-2. Compile, monitor, and communicate specific health impacts from climate change. 3PH-3. Increase public awareness and understanding of climate change impacts on health and the need to prepare for these changes.
» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING, WILDFIRES, EXTREME HEAT
Health Care System + Professionals 3PH-4. Prepare health care facilities and professionals for climate change.
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
PUBLIC HEALTH
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» EXTREME HEAT General + Vulnerable Populations
3PH-5. Improve access to cooling locations during extreme heat events 3PH-6. Communicate the necessary measures to protect residents and workers at risk to extreme heat 3PH-7. Develop a Heat Island Evaluation program
» EXTREME HEAT AND COLD Homeless Residents
3PH-8. Expand homeless support services during all extreme weather events
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
PUBLIC HEALTH, CONTINUED
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» TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, WILDFIRE
General and Vulnerable Populations 3PH-9. Coordinate with partner organizations to communicate measures to protect residents and workers during high ozone and high particulate matter days 3PH-10. Coordinate with the Bay Area Air Quality Management District in reducing emissions in Community Air Risk Evaluation communities
» TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION
General and Vulnerable Populations 3PH-11. Identify locations in the County where ozone concentrations exceed allowable standards. 3PH-12. Continue coordination to manage vector populations during climate change 3PH-13. Monitor diseases to better understand emerging public health threats and use the information to plan and respond to disease outbreaks
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
PUBLIC HEALTH, CONTINUED
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PUBLIC HEALTH
3PH-7. DEVELOP A HEAT ISLAND EVALUATION PROGRAM.
Asset: General population, Vulnerable Populations Climate Variable: Extreme Heat
be used in tandem with the heat-related vulnerability maps, and target heat island interventions in the areas with the highest heat-related vulnerability. Implementation Timing: Short term Lead: County Public Health Department, County Planning and Development Department, and County Office of Sustainability Potential Challenges + Solutions:
FOCUS STRATEGY EXAMPLE
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Solid + Hazardous Waste
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Solid Waste Facilities:
» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING
SW-1. Revise current permitting and monitoring standards for all solid waste facilities and hazardous waste sites to include assessments for climate change variables SW-2. Work with operators to conduct detailed facilities assessments at active, vulnerable sites and identify alternative locations in the county zoned to host needed functions and capacities.
» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING, WILDFIRE
SW-3. Assess and prioritize the ~130 contaminated sites most vulnerable to climate change variables and work with property owners to develop and implement adaptation plans.
Hazardous Waste:
» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING, WILDFIRE
SW-4. Assess and prioritize the ~16 hazardous waste sites most vulnerable to climate change and work with property owners to develop and implement adaptation plans
local municipalities).
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
SOLID + HAZARDOUS WASTE
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SOLID + HAZARDOUS WASTE
SW-2. WORK WITH OPERATORS TO CONDUCT DETAILED SITE ASSESSMENTS AT ACTIVE, VULNERABLE SITES AND IDENTIFY ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS IN THE COUNTY ZONED TO HOST NEEDED FUNCTIONS AND CAPACITIES.
Asset: Solid Waste Facilities Climate Variable: Sea Level Rise + Storm Surge, Riverine Flooding
projected to be permanently inundated by SLR, to assess remaining permitted capacities and functions, and understand any potential ramifications of closing sites ahead of schedule.
and non-vulnerable sites in the County to accommodate capacities. Implementation Timing: Short term Lead: County (with SCVWD, private owner / operators, and host cities) Potential Challenges + Solutions:
FOCUS STRATEGY EXAMPLE
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Transportation
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All:
» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING, WILDFIRES
T-1. Mainstream climate change considerations in all transportation agency planning and decision-making processes
» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING
T-2. Collaborate with relevant transportation agencies to conduct a detailed vulnerability assessment of transportation assets and services
Airports:
» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE
T-3. Review master planning processes to understand the opportunities and risks climate change may present to the Palo Alto Airport
Heavy Rail:
» EXTREME HEAT
T-4. Incorporate heat-related impacts on rail tracks into existing operations and communication procedures
TRANSPORTATION
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
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TRANSPORTATION
T-1. MAINSTREAM CLIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS IN ALL TRANSPORTATION AGENCY PLANNING AND DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES.
Asset: Roads (Highways and Local), Bridges, Pedestrian Ways, Bikeways, Rail Tracks (Heavy and Light,), and Airports. Climate Variable: Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, Riverine Flooding, Wildfire
management frameworks – benefit existing processes that already influence climate change planning. Implementation Timing: Short term Lead: Regional transportation agencies, including the County Congestion Management Agency Potential Challenges + Solutions:
end-to-end business process may vary.
FOCUS STRATEGY EXAMPLE
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Water + Wastewater
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All:
» SEA LEVEL RISE, STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING, WILDFIRES, EXTREME HEAT
W-1. Share geospatial data from the SV 2.0 tool with water and wastewater asset owners
Wastewater Treatment Plants:
» STORM SURGE, RIVERINE FLOODING
W-2. Develop a detailed vulnerability assessment of wastewater assets to inform site-specific adaptation options
Reservoirs:
» WILDFIRE
W-3. Integrate projected increases in wildfire frequency and intensity into State, County and city plans and practices
WATER + WASTEWATER
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
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WATER + WASTEWATER
W-2. DEVELOP A DETAILED VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF WATER AND WASTEWATER ASSETS TO INFORM SITE-SPECIFIC ADAPTATION OPTIONS.
Asset: Water and Wastewater Treatment Plants Climate Variable: Storm Surge, Riverine Flooding
climate change variables, and/or exhibit adaptive capacity (which will ultimately determine their vulnerability). Conditions assessments could include information on the age of the assets, remaining service life, criticality, maintenance history and costs, etc. Implementation Timing: Short term Lead: Water agencies (collaboration) Potential Challenges + Solutions:
FOCUS STRATEGY EXAMPLE
GOALS + INSTRUCTIONS
1. Please review the strategy identified for your group’s asset sector 2. Discuss the sections outlined in the worksheet and brainstorm ideas and details for each, together creating an initial action framework for the strategy 3. Time permitting:
consensus on the order in which you think they should be done.
4. Report back to larger group during final session
STRATEGY ACTION PLANS AND PRIORITIZATION
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SILICON VALLEY 2.0 Climate Adaptation Partners’ Forum
4 MAY 2015 County of Santa Clara Office of Sustainability