Technical and Social Challenges of Cli Climate Change Adaptation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Technical and Social Challenges of Cli t Ch Ad t ti f A ti Climate Change Adaptation for Aquatic Resource Managers

Don Pereira, Kathy DonCarlos, Pete Jacobson, Andy Carlson and Ray Valley Minnesota Dept. of Natural Resources

Climate Change in MN will likely mean l l h i th di t ib ti f large-scale changes in the distribution of fish habitat.

• Significant changes in thermal regimes
• longer growing seasons
• loss of coldwater habitat (gains in warm)
• Higher storm frequency > greater runoff >
• Higher storm frequency -> greater runoff ->

increased nutrient loading

Schneider, K. N., R. M. Newman, V. Card, S. Weisberg, and

• D. L. Pereira. 2010. Timing of Walleye Spawning as an

Indicator of Climate Change Transactions of the American Indicator of Climate Change. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 139:1198-1210.

Climate Change in MN will likely mean large-scale changes in the distribution of fish habitat.

Predicted Effects Of Global Climate Change On Fishes In Minnesota Lakes Fishes In Minnesota Lakes H.G. Stefan, M. Hondzo, J.G. Eaton, and J.H. McCormick

Technical Challenges to Climate Change Technical Challenges to Climate Change Adaptation

What we are doing now:

• Assessment of habitat for imperiled species (cisco)
• Comprehensive monitoring (SLICE)
• Intensive statewide assessment (Johnson et al.)
• Climate change downscaling (USGS, NFHPs)

Technical Challenges to Climate Change Adaptation Adaptation

What we need to start on: What we need to start on:

• Assessment of populations and habitat for

p p warm adapted species

• Review of management regimes that may fail
• Developing methods for risk assessment and

decision analysis (e.g. SDM)

• Deploy social science tools for engaging
• Deploy social science tools for engaging

stakeholders (e.g. adaptive leadership)

Ci /L k H i Cisco/Lake Herring (Coregonus artedi)

Cisco Lethal Niche Boundary

Lake Andrusia Beltrami County

8 10

• n (mg/l)

7th Crow Wing 8th Crow Wing Andrusia Bemidji Cotton Gull Itasca Lida Littl Pi (C )

July 28, 2006

4 6

en concentratio

Little Pine (Cass) Little Pine (Ottertail) Little Turtle Long Pine Mountain Star Straight Woman

2

Oxyge

10 15 20 25

Temperature (°C)

J b l (2008) Fi ld i i f l h l Jacobson et al. (2008) Field estimation of a lethal

• xythermal niche boundary for adult cisco in

Minnesota lakes. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 137:1464–1474.

Potential cisco

Identification

• f Potential

Potential cisco refuge lakes Non-refuge cisco lakes

Coldwater Refuge Lakes

• Deep lakes with good
• Deep lakes with good

water quality - need extra protection

• Statewide significance
• High priority for

High priority for shoreland and watershed protection

Peter C. Jacobson, H. G. Stefan, and D. L. Pereira. 2010 (In press) Coldwater fish oxythermal habitat in Minnesota lakes: Influence of lake productivity, morphometry, and climate Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Acoustic tag Acoustic tag coverage coverage coverage coverage

Hydrophone Hydrophone

406 mm Cisco 406 mm Cisco

Andrew.Carlson@state.mn.us

Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment (SLICE)

Sentinel Lakes express range of

geomorphological conditions

Aquatic communities are

profoundly different across productivity and growing season productivity and growing season gradients

Climate change and other Climate change and other

watershed stressor may increase productivity and growing season length g

SLICE: Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment Sentinel Lake Selection Criteria Ecoregion (4) Stratified Mixed L H M H M L L H M Phosphorus H M L R V ll @ t t http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/fisheries/slice/index.html Ray.Valley@state.mn.us

24 Sentinel lakes – focal points of

Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment (SLICE)

Se t e a es

• ca po ts o

cooperative long-term monitoring

Program purpose is to:

• Track habitat conditions
• Species responses to changes

in habitat f t th b bilit f

• forecast the probability of

crossing undesirable thresholds

Phase 1 (2008-2011):

• Indicator ID High “signal:noise”
• Inference into cause-effect

Inference into cause effect

Strong partnerships – right people

doing the right job (PCA, USGS, g g j ( , , SNF, Volunteers)

SLICE Phase 1: ID indicator variables with high S/N

Staples et al. 2005

How Can We Start Adaptation of How Can We Start Adaptation of How Can We Start Adaptation of How Can We Start Adaptation of Fisheries Management Programs? Fisheries Management Programs?

=

Duluth Area Fisheries Largemouth Duluth Area Fisheries Largemouth Bass Expansion Bass Expansion Bass Expansion Bass Expansion

Historical

Historical – 14 14 lakes had no lakes had no stocking stocking

1970’s

1970’s - all all stocked, only stocked, only

• ne in the 70’s
• ne in the 70’s
• ne in the 70 s
• ne in the 70 s

1980’s

1980’s – all all stocked, only stocked, only

• ne in the 80’s
• ne in the 80’s

1990’s

1990’s – 9 of 13 9 of 13 stocked, only stocked, only

• ne in the 90’s
• ne in the 90’s

2000’s

2000’s – 11 of 11 of 14 stocked, last 14 stocked, last stocking stocking

• ccurred in 1973
• ccurred in 1973
• ccurred in 1973
• ccurred in 1973

(credit: Nick Frohnauer, MN DNR)

A A Trichotomy Trichotomy of Adaptation Responses

• f Adaptation Responses
• Resistance
• Resistance
• Resilience

Resilience

• Facilitation

Galatowitsch, S., L. Frelich, and L. Phillips-Mao. 2009. Regional climate change adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in a midcontinental region of North America. Biological Conservation 142:2012 – 2022

Structured Decision Making

Structured Decision Making Structured Decision Making

John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, Howard Raiffa. 2002. Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Life Decisions Broadway Books Martin, J., M. C. Runge, J. D. Nichols, B. C. Lubow, and W. L. Kendall. 2009. Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds g p y for conservation and management Ecological Applications 19:1079-1090

Walleye ? …… or Bass ? ……. or Both ?

Principles of Adaptive Leadership

• 1. Resist focusing only on a technical solution for a

problem that may have strong social dimensions

• 2. Get up on the balcony

3 Raise the heat a little bit

• 3. Raise the heat a little bit
• 4. Prepare to help manage “loss”

Getting Up on the Balcony ………… Give careful consideration to the differences in values of resource managers and their values of resource managers and their stakeholders. Management of Native Fish Assemblages?

TURNING UP THE HEAT!

N ENSION L OF TE LEVEL TIME

Don't Intervene

TIME

TURNING UP THE HEAT!

ON TENSIO EL OF T LEVE TIME

Don't Intervene Turn Up The Heat

TIME

Principles of Adaptive Leadership

• 1. Resist focusing only on a technical solution for a

problem that may have strong social dimensions

• 2. Get up on the balcony

3 Raise the heat a little bit

• 3. Raise the heat a little bit
• 4. Prepare to help manage “loss”

Merging SDM & Adaptive Leadership

SDM will help assess management options: A1 A2 A

Preferred by Resource Managers

A3 B1 B2 B2 C1 C2

Preferred by Stakeholders

D1

Stakeholders Adaptive Leadership may help find an acceptable solution.

Acknowledgements Acknowledgements

Colleagues:

• Dr. Heinz Stefan, U. of Minnesota, St. Anthony Falls

Hydraulics Lab

• Dr. Xing Fang, Auburn University

Dr Lucinda Johnson U of MN-Duluth NRRI

• Dr. Lucinda Johnson, U. of MN Duluth, NRRI

Nick Frohnauer & Duluth DNR Fisheries Stafff Funding: Funding: Sport Fish Restoration Program (U.S.D.I., USFWS) MN Environment & Natural Resources Trust Fund

Walleye Spawn Earlier

D ay ay

• f

fir st eg g- ta ke (d ( ay s)

Can We Merge Two New but Potentially Complementary Tools: Adaptive Leadership Adaptive Leadership & Structured Decision Making Structured Decision Making

Principles of Adaptive Leadership

• 1. Resist focusing only on a technical solution for a

problem that may have strong social dimensions

• 2. Get up on the balcony

3 Raise the heat a little bit

• 3. Raise the heat a little bit
• 4. Prepare to help manage “loss”

Decisions/Problems:

• 1. Can walleye stocking be maintained as a viable

management strategy in the face of expanding black bass populations in Minnesota? p p

• 2. How should basins with natural walleye

populations (not stocked) be managed given the populations (not stocked) be managed given the expansion of black bass populations in Minnesota?

Potential Objectives for Decision/Problem 1

1 Utili ll t ki if hi h b bilit f

• 1. Utilize walleye stocking if high probability of

adequate recruitment & adult survival

• 2. Sustainable, healthy fish populations
• 3. Acceptable tribal harvest
• 4. Acceptable recreational opportunities
• 5. Cost effective and affordable fish management

g

• 6. Tourism industry support and benefits from fishery

Potential Objectives and Criteria Potential Objectives and Criteria

Criteria Evaluation Utilize walleye stocking if high probability Year class strength Utilize walleye stocking if high probability

• f adequate recruitment & adult survival

Year class strength Sustainable, healthy fish populations Population , y p p p management through regulations Acceptable tribal harvest Support Acceptable recreational opportunities Maintain or increase Cost effective and affordable fish management Minimize cost Tourism industry support and benefits from fi h Support fishery

Potential Management Actions

• 1. Maintain walleye

2 Switch primary spp to bass

• 2. Switch primary spp. to bass
• 3. Natural system response

Uncertainties/Hypotheses yp

• 1. Black bass prey on walleye, resulting in

decreased walleye recruitment decreased walleye recruitment.

• 2. Walleye populations decrease due to loss of
• ptimal thermal habitat.

p

• 3. Limiting factors for black bass are water

temperature and duration of growing season.

• 4. Pond production of fall walleye fingerlings will

continue at current levels.

• 5. Walleye spring fingerlings will develop in to a

viable stocking tool.

Certainties

• 1. Black bass will become the dominant

predator in some lakes previously dominated by cool water predators by cool water predators.

• 2. Black bass in some lakes will result in

declines in walleye either through predation declines in walleye either through predation

• r competition.
• 3. There is spatial uncertainty (i.e. which

p y ( lakes?)

Scenarios: 5 – 10 Years

• 1. Walleye dominant species; bass present but

not dominant species

• 2. Dominance fluctuates between walleye and

bass

• 3. Bass dominant species; walleye recruitment

declines (or stocking failure)