Shipbuilding Market Overview Cargotec Capital Markets Day, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
shipbuilding market overview
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Shipbuilding Market Overview Cargotec Capital Markets Day, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 01, 2022 24 likes •399 views

Shipbuilding Market Overview Cargotec Capital Markets Day, Helsinki, 17 th November 2011. Steve Gordon, Clarkson Research Services Limited (CRSL) The information supplied herewith is believed to be correct but the accuracy thereof is not

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Shipbuilding Market Overview

Cargotec Capital Markets Day, Helsinki, 17th November 2011. Steve Gordon, Clarkson Research Services Limited (CRSL)

The information supplied herewith is believed to be correct but the accuracy thereof is not guaranteed and the Company and its employees cannot accept liability for loss suffered in consequence of reliance on the information provided. Provision of this data does not obviate the need to make further appropriate enquiries and inspections. The information is for the use of the recipient only and is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance without the written permission of Clarkson Research Services.

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Agenda

  • 1. Market Position, Seaborne Trade, World Fleet
  • 2. Regional Shipbuilding Capacity
  • 3. Ship Type Investment & Outlook
  • 4. Summary
slide-3
SLIDE 3

Market Position: Clarksea Index

  • Three very different

decades!

  • Between the end of May

2008 and mid-April 2009, the Index fell from almost $50,000/day to a low of $7,350/day.

  • 2009 & 2010 proved better

than expected and low interest rates helped.

  • Sentiment now weaker -

as of 11th November 2011, $11,142 / day

The The Clarksea Clarksea Index (tankers, Index (tankers, bulkers bulkers, containers, , containers, gas) Source: Clarkson Research gas) Source: Clarkson Research

ClarkSea Index

10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source: Clarkson Research, April 2011 '000 $/day The Clarksea Index is an average w eighted index of earnings across the major sectors of tankers, bulkers, containers and gas Average 1980s - $9,461/day Avergae 1990s - $11,924/day Average 2000s - $21,720/day

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Cycle Position November 2011

This chart shows average earnings today for the ship type, as a % of the average earnings during the last 10 years

  • 100%
  • 50%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% VLCC Suezm ax Afram ax Clean Products Capesize Panam ax Handym ax Handy Container 3,500 teu Container 1,700 teu Offshore LPG LNG % deviation from 10 year trend

Tankers depressed Quarterly Upturn but lots

  • f supply to

come Gas & Offshore better Rates have continued to decline since the summer

slide-5
SLIDE 5

The World Economy - Sea trade cycles generally follow cycles in world GNP – but not precisely.

World Seaborne Trade & GDP

  • 6.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Source: Clarkson Research Services. IMF Trade Grow th World GDP Grow th % 2009 2008 2007 linear trendline 2010

Seaborne Trade 2011, m.tonnes

Other Dry 27% Minor Bulks 13% Major Bulks 25% Crude Oil 21% Oil Products 9% Gas 3%

Source: Clarkson Research Services

1990-2008: trade almost doubled to 8.2bn tonnes – that is over

  • ne tonne for

every person on the planet

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Global Seaborne Trade

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 2 1 ( e )

Source: Clarkson Research, April 2011 Major Bulk Minor Bulk Container Trade Crude Oil Oil Products Gas Other Billion Tonnes

2000-2010 Trade Growth

1.7% 2.5% 2.9% 4.3% 4.9% 5.3% 5.7% 6.5%

  • 1.9%

7.9% 8.2%

  • 3.7%

3.9% 2.7%

  • 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

  • Phos. Rock

Other Crude Oil Minor Bulk Grain LPG Baux./Alum. Oil Products Cars Cruise Coal LNG Container Iron Ore Source: Clarkson Research, April 2011 % Grow th Per A

World Seaborne Trade

4% average

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Seaborne Trade Scenarios

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: Clarkson Research, April 2011 Chinese Imports World Less China 7% scenario 4% scenario 3% scenario 1% scenario

Period % p.a. 1951-60 6.3% 1961-70 9.1% 1971-80 3.5% 1981-90 2.3% 1991-00 3.9% 2001-10 3.7%

Billion Tonnes

  • We expect trade to grow by

around 5% in 2011 but there are lots of risks given economic developments / uncertainty and there is a lag on trade data.

  • For planning purposes, 4%

growth in trade over the next decade does not seem unreasonable.

Seaborne Trade Outlook

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Age Profile –11% of fleet above 25 years

20 40 60 80 100 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Million GT Deliveries

Relatively few vessels built in the 1980s so limited replacement requirement

slide-9
SLIDE 9

World Fleet 1986 - 2012

Growth Rates:

  • This year the fleet moved

past the billion GT mark

  • Fleet growth has moved up

to 7-8% in recent years and this is also forecast for 2011 and 2012.

  • This is roughly double long

term trade growth and more than the 5% trade growth expected this year.

  • Graph in GT
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 (f) Source: Clarkson Research, April 2011

World Fleet Development

World Fleet Development % Growth

Million

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Agenda

  • 1. Market Position, Seaborne Trade, World Fleet
  • 2. Regional Shipbuilding Capacity
  • 3. Ship Type Investment & Outlook
  • 4. Summary
slide-11
SLIDE 11

World Shipbuilding & Scenario

20 40 60 80 100 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 Million GT Deliveries

The last shipbuilding peak was in 1975 when output reached 36 million GT – 35 year cycle Market Peak – 2010 or 2011? Surplus Capacity

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Shipbuilding Output by Country & CGT

20 40 60 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Million CGT Deliveries

Europe Japan

  • S. Korea

China Others

slide-13
SLIDE 13

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 % total ships launched

Korea

Japan

Europe

Britain

Other

Scandinavia

USA China

Shipbuilding – Waves of Competition

Source: Maritime Economics (2009)

slide-14
SLIDE 14

China takes the lead…..

Global Shipbuilding Share (2011 YTD Delivery in Dwt)

Japan 20%

  • S. Korea

33% China 41% Europe 2% Others 4%

Global Shipbuilding Share - Delivery

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 YTD

Source: Clarkson Research Services

% DWT Deliveries China Europe Japan South Korea Others

slide-15
SLIDE 15

South Korean success in high value orders

Global Shipbuilding Share (2011 YTD contracting in CGT)

  • S. Korea

50% China 32% Japan 5% Others 7% Europe 6%

Global Shipbuilding Share - Contracting

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD

Source: Clarkson Research Services

% CGT Deliveries China Europe Japan South Korea Others

slide-16
SLIDE 16

World Shipbuilding by Country 2010

19.0 16.0 9.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 3.6 5 10 15 20 25 China

  • S. Korea

Japan Germany Italy Philippines Norway Turkey Spain Netherlands Others Million CGT Output 2010

Source: Clarkson Research

223 yards 30 yards 78 yards

What is CGT? CGT is the Gross Tonnage (GT)

  • f the ship weighted to reflect its

work content per GT. For example the weight for a containership might be 1.0 and the weight for a big tanker 0.25)

slide-17
SLIDE 17

World Shipbuilding by Country 2011 YTD

14.7 13.1 7.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.4 5 10 15 20 25 China

  • S. Korea

Japan Germany Italy Norway Turkey Spain Netherlands Others Million CGT Output in 2011

Source: Clarkson Research

232 yards 31 yards 68 yards

What is CGT? CGT is the Gross Tonnage (GT)

  • f the ship weighted to reflect its

work content per GT. For example the weight for a containership might be 1.0 and the weight for a big tanker 0.25)

slide-18
SLIDE 18

World Shipbuilding Production by Country COUNTRY her Total Output M CGT M CGT M CGT M CGT M CGT M CGT China 3.9 10.3 1.7 0.1 3.0 19.0

  • S. Korea

4.6 3.0 4.8 2.2 1.4 16.0 Japan 2.3 4.7 0.8 0.6 1.3 9.7 Germany 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.8 Italy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 Philippines 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 Norway 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 Turkey 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 Spain 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 Netherlands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 All Others 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 2.2 3.6 Total 11.6 18.8 8.1 3.0 10.5 52.0 Tankers Bulkers Containers Gas

World Shipbuilding Capacity 2010 - CGT

Indicates market leader for each ship type

slide-19
SLIDE 19

World Shipbuilding Capacity 2011 YTD - CGT

Indicates market leader for each ship type

World Shipbuilding Production by Country COUNTRY Tanker Bulk Carrier Containership Gas Others Total China P.R. 2.6 9.3 0.7 0.1 2.1 14.7 South Korea 3.3 3.6 4.2 0.7 1.4 13.1 Japan 1.6 4.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 7.0 Philippines 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 Italy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 Germany 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 Taiwan 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 Vietnam 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 Norway 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 Turkey 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 All Others 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.6 Total 7.8 18.1 5.6 1.0 6.3 38.8

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Top Builders 2010

COUNTRY BUILDER Bulkers Container Gas Other Tankers Total Cont % tot 1 South Korea Daewoo 217 1,468 606 235 612 3,138 47% 2 South Korea Hyundai H.I. 467 1,304 263 446 488 2,968 44% 3 South Korea Samsung H.I.

  • 961

998 356 299 2,614 37% 4 South Korea Hyundai Samho 249 408 88

  • 539

1,284 32% 5 China P.R. Jiangnan Changxing 50 377

  • 427

88% 6 Taiwan CSBC

  • 325
  • 325

100% 7 South Korea Hanjin H.I.

  • 312

81 13 52 459 68% 8 China P.R. Jiangsu New YZJ 391 309

  • 700

44% 9 Japan Mitsubishi H.I.

  • 289

233 244

  • 766

38% 10 Philippines HHIC-Phil. Inc.

  • 207
  • 52

260 80% 11 China P.R. Guangzhou Wenchon

  • 207
  • 58
  • 264

78% 12 Japan Koyo Dock K.K. 246 190 81

  • 517

37% 13 China P.R. Dalian Shipbuilding 409 168

  • 554

1,131 15% 14 South Korea Sungdong S.B. 709 154

  • 156

1,020 15% 15 Japan Naikai S.B.

  • 118
  • 17

135 88% 16 China P.R. Jiangsu Yangzijiang

  • 113
  • 156
  • 269

42% 17 Japan Imabari S.B. 752 101

  • 233

44 1,131 9% 18 China P.R. Shanghai S.Y. 248 96

  • 344

28% 19 Japan I.H.I. 194 95

  • 178

466 20% 20 China P.R. Zhejiang S.B. 33 78

  • 15
  • 126

62% 2010 Output - 000 CGT

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Top Builders 2011 YTD

COUNTRY BUILDER Bulk Carrier Containership Gas Others Tanker Total Cont % tot 1 South Korea Hyundai H.I. 513 1,173 83 363 641 2774 42% 2 South Korea Samsung H.I.

  • 1,104 162 294 840

2400 46% 3 South Korea Daewoo 219 742 410 341 153 1866 40% 4 South Korea Hyundai Samho 271 898

  • 114 305

1587 57% 5 South Korea Hyundai Mipo 438 21 17 223 493 1192 2% 6 South Korea STX Shipbuild. 558 120 34

  • 275

987 12% 7 China P.R. Dalian Shipbuilding 346 49

  • 545

941 5% 8 South Korea Sungdong S.B. 660

  • 128

788 0% 9 Japan Imabari S.B. 595

  • 99
  • 694

0% 10 China P.R. Shanghai Waigaoqiao 403

  • 181

583 0% 11 South Korea SPP Shipbuilding 472

  • 104

575 0% 12 Japan Oshima S.B. Co. 566

  • 566

0% 13 China P.R. Jiangsu New YZJ 492 26

  • 517

5% 14 Japan Mitsubishi H.I.

  • 248
  • 174 89

511 49% 15 China P.R. Dayang S.B. 440

  • 47
  • 487

0% 16 Japan Universal S.B. 352

  • 133

485 0% 17 China P.R. New Times S.B. 333

  • 114

447 0% 18 Japan Mitsui SB 390

  • 44

435 0% 19 Japan I.H.I. 209 47

  • 177

433 11% 20 China P.R. Hudong Zhonghua 183 90

  • 75 51

399 23% 2011 YTD Output - 000 CGT

slide-22
SLIDE 22

“Non-Delivery” Trends

  • In recent years around a

quarter to a third of expected deliveries at the start of the year have not delivered.

Slippage and Cancellation by Shiptype, 2011

GAS TANKERS BULKERS TOTAL CONTAINERS

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Cancellation Slippage

Unit : Dwt

% Difference of Forecast vs. Actual Deliveries into the Global Fleet

  • 50%
  • 40%
  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Clarkson Research, October 2011

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Investor Behaviour

Major Investors

2007 2008 2009 2010

2011*

2007 2008 2009 2010

2011* Greece 655 257 67 292 118 37.7 21.2 3.0 13.3 11.5 STEADY…. 4% Norway 259 104 19 119 67 19.9 10.2 0.5 5.8 7.5 UP BY…. 55% Denmark 103 143 14 15 37 4.1 8.6 0.4 0.3 6.7 UP BY…. 2222% Germany 667 366 35 75 42 35.2 19.3 1.7 3.0 3.4 UP BY…. 35% France 103 38 11 68 27 4.4 1.8 0.1 3.1 0.9 DOWN BY…..

  • 63%

Italy 165 102 30 18 13 8.9 6.0 1.1 2.4 0.8 DOWN BY…..

  • 59%

Netherlands 165 99 55 43 28 4.6 2.1 1.0 2.4 0.7 DOWN BY…..

  • 64%

Turkey 242 108 12 43 22 9.0 5.0 0.1 1.5 0.7 DOWN BY…..

  • 49%

Russia 40 63 28 30 22 1.1 1.6 0.4 1.2 0.6 DOWN BY…..

  • 37%

Sweden 7 10 4 14 5 1.1 1.7 0.1 0.5 0.5 UP BY…. 20% United Kingdom 79 35 9 26 7 1.7 2.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 DOWN BY…..

  • 75%

Monaco 3 5 5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 UP BY…. 28% Other Europe 246 107 41 58 19 11.0 6.0 1.2 2.1 0.3 DOWN BY…..

  • 81%

TOTAL EUROPE 2,731 1,435 325 806 412 138.7 85.7 10.0 36.9 34.2 UP BY…. 11% China P.R. 391 273 230 444 136 18.5 13.8 6.9 14.5 4.4 DOWN BY…..

  • 64%

Singapore 234 149 91 111 76 6.0 6.2 1.5 4.3 3.2 DOWN BY…..

  • 13%

Hong Kong 157 63 32 81 36 6.9 3.0 1.6 2.6 2.5 UP BY…. 13% Japan 423 326 84 100 39 24.4 17.8 2.8 3.7 2.3 DOWN BY…..

  • 25%

South Korea 253 141 43 89 43 12.8 8.3 2.1 4.2 2.1 DOWN BY…..

  • 41%

Taiwan 103 44 12 63 24 8.6 3.1 0.4 3.4 1.4 DOWN BY…..

  • 50%

Malaysia 85 61 31 35 24 1.8 0.8 0.5 3.3 0.4 DOWN BY…..

  • 86%

India 94 31 18 47 11 3.9 1.6 0.4 1.9 0.3 DOWN BY…..

  • 80%

Other Asia 84 60 30 21 17 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 DOWN BY…..

  • 13%

TOTAL ASIA 1,824 1,148 571 991 406 84.9 56.1 16.5 38.4 16.7 DOWN BY…..

  • 48%

Israel 49 19 2 21 28 4.5 1.8 0.1 1.2 1.5 UP BY…. 49% Saudi Arabia 33 7 3 3 6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.4 UP BY…. 76% U.A.E. 81 77 51 22 4 2.5 3.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 DOWN BY…..

  • 66%

Other Mid. East 37 63 13 10 4 3.5 5.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 DOWN BY…..

  • 24%

TOTAL MID. EAST 200 166 69 56 42 11.7 10.7 1.4 2.6 2.3 UP BY…. 8% United States 178 61 43 67 53 19.4 6.1 1.8 5.7 14.3 UP BY…. 200% Brazil 28 32 30 21 28 1.1 7.4 5.2 1.4 5.3 UP BY…. 355% Canada 52 13 5 40 16 4.2 0.2 0.1 1.3 2.1 UP BY…. 98% Other 100 69 56 56 8 4.1 3.6 2.5 2.8 0.2 DOWN BY…..

  • 91%

TOTAL OTHER 358 175 134 184 105 28.8 17.4 9.7 11.1 21.8 UP BY…. 135% GLOBAL TOTAL 5,113 2,924 1,099 2,037 965 264.1 169.9 37.5 88.9 75.0 STEADY…. 1%

  • No. of Vessels

Investment Trends

This Year … Value $ billion

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Chinese Owned Fleet & Contracts

Chinese Owned Fleet & Contracts

20 40 60 80 100 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Source: Clarkson Research Services

  • m. GT

1 2 3 4 5 6

  • m. GT

China P.R. Ow ned Fleet (LHS) China P.R. Ow ned Contracts (RHS)

  • Strong Chinese owned

contracts before the financial crisis leads to strong growth rate after financial crisis.

  • About 9% (in GT) yoy growth

rate pre-financial crisis.

  • Over 20% (in GT) yoy growth

rate post-financial crisis.

  • Global fleet growth rate consist

at about 7% yoy during the same period.

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Agenda

  • 1. Market Position, Seaborne Trade, World Fleet
  • 2. Regional Shipbuilding Capacity
  • 3. Ship Type Investment & Outlook
  • 4. Summary
slide-26
SLIDE 26

Massive Investment In New Ships

1.

Between 2003 and 2008 the industry ordered over $800 billion of new ships. 50% of the orders were placed in 2007/8 when prices were at a peak

2.

Majority of investment related to standard designs and technology

3.

In 2011, 40% of investment has been offshore related and 15% gas.

4.

Today, the contract value

  • f the marine orderbook is
  • ver $300 billion and
  • ffshore is nearly $150

billion.

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bill $ Orders

20 40 60 80 100 120

New Cape $MM

Others Container LPG LNG Bulk Tankers New Cape $MM

Source: Clarkson Research Services Ltd

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Shipbuilding Output by Type & CGT

20 40 60 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Million CGT Deliveries

Others Containership Bulkercarrier Tanker

slide-28
SLIDE 28

2010 Activity & 2011 Potential

Tankers, 301, 15% Gas, 56, 3% Container, 125, 6% Others, 374, 19% Bulk, 1117, 57%

2010 1,973 1,177 (f)

Tankers, 153, 13% Gas, 82, 7% Container, 289, 25% Bulk, 325, 27% Others, 328, 28%

2011

slide-29
SLIDE 29

2011 ……. Winners & Losers

  • We expect the relative share
  • f orders by sector to change

in 2011.

  • We expected Offshore,

Container and Gas to do better.

  • We expect bulkers and tankers

to be down year on year.

  • Overall volumes expected to

be slightly down on 2010. 2011 versus 2010

Bulk Ferry Tanker Offshore Gas Container

  • 100%
  • 50%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Newbuilding Requirement Scenario

  • Relatively low ordering expected in the short

term.

  • Surplus capacity may put pressure on pricing.
  • Gradual pick up later in the decade but with

relatively more gas, container, ferry, Ro Ro, PCC and Offshore.

  • Bulkers remains a volume market but not at

the same levels as the boom.

  • Counter cyclical ordering possible.
  • New designs and technology provide

marketing opportunities.

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Offshore Oil Production & Forecast

  • Following a decade of

stagnation, offshore oil is expected to grow strongly.

  • Step change in oil price

expectation and offshore

  • il is getting deeper
  • Projection based on over

178 oil fields currently under development

  • 1,125 potential

development oil fields and 1,038 gas fields 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Million BPD

Caspian Black Sea West Africa Asia Pacific Sth America M East & ISC NW Europe Nth America

Offshore oil production and forecast forecast

Growth Stagnation

?

Growth

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Offshore Discoveries Getting Deeper

  • 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Water Depth (M) Shengli, China 3.8 bn bbls Safaniya, S.Arabia 3.5 bn bbls Akal & Cantarell, Mexico 6.7 bn bbls combined Deepwater Gulf of Mexico Fields Brazilian Pre-Salt Discoveries

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Offshore & Marine Orderbook- Value by Type

Offshore $137 bn $291 bn

Tankers 12.8% Gas 5.0% Container 19.9% Others 20.1% Bulk 42.2%

Marine

AHTS 7% Supply 6% Survey 3% Mobile Offshore Drilling 46% Mobile Production 20% Logistics 3% Construct & Platform 13.9%

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Offshore Contracting Forecast – Significant Requirement

  • Long Term Project Intelligence

Forecast is based on the projected construction and start- up of future offshore fields. The contracting forecast is based on the units required for each of the fields in the projection start-up.

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

No of Contracts Placed

Support Production and Logistics Survey and Development

Project I ntelligence Methodology Contracting Forecast

Forecast

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Agenda

  • 1. Market Position, Seaborne Trade, World Fleet
  • 2. Regional Shipbuilding Capacity
  • 3. Ship Type Investment & Outlook
  • 4. Summary
slide-36
SLIDE 36

Conclusions

  • We have entered a market trough following a decade of exceptional earnings. The

big three volume sectors – tankers, bulkers, containers – all face difficult issues.

  • World trade averages under 4% growth but there is currently shipbuilding capacity to

grow the fleet at 7%. Suggests prices may ease back and a return towards boom

  • rdering levels is unlikely.
  • Shipbuilding output is at a record high and marks the peak of a 35 year cycle. China

took the shipbuilding crown last year but is having a tough 2011 in contracting terms.

  • In 2011, Gas, Container and Offshore have been more active. Securing finance at the

moment is difficult.

  • We expect dry bulk to remain a volume newbuild market but for Gas, Ro Ro, Ferry

and Offshore to do relatively better over the coming decade

  • It is a buyers market and yards are being far more flexible with new designs.

Solutions that reduce fuel consumption and have a green angle are very attractive. Lower newbuild prices may encourage counter cyclical ordering.

slide-37
SLIDE 37

18/ 11/ 2011 Clarksons Research

Disclaimer

The information supplied herewith is believed to be correct but the accuracy thereof is not guaranteed and the Company and its employees cannot accept liability for loss suffered in consequence of reliance on the information provided. Provision of this data does not

  • bviate the need to make further appropriate enquiries and inspections. The information is for the use of the recipient only and is not to

be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance without the written permission of Clarkson Research Services. The statistical and graphical information contained under the heading is drawn from the Clarkson Research Services Limited ("CRSL") database and other sources. CRSL has advised that: (i) some information in CRSL's database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; and (ii) the information in the databases of other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the information in CRSL's database; and (iii) whilst CRSL has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the statistical and graphical information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; and (iv) CRSL, its agents, officers and employees do not accept liability for any loss suffered in consequence of reliance on such information or in any other manner; and (v) the provision of such information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (vi) the provision of such information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/ or any conclusions by CRSL; and (vii) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it cannot be very accurate